LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
IN THE OECD AREA
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE 2016 OECD INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION OUTLOOK
Council Meeting, 27 September 2016
Stefano Scarpetta Director
Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD
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Latest labour market developments in the OECD area: the recovery continues, but unevenly
•
OECD unemployment remained stable at 6.3% in July 2016, down from a peak of 8.5%, but there are still 6.4 million more people unemployed than before the crisis:
–
Euro-area unemployment remains high at 10.1% but is now falling quite rapidly:
•
Some of the countries where unemployment remains very high have seen large reductions in the past year (2.3, 1.5 and 1.2 %pts reductions respectively in Spain, Greece, and Portugal, but only 0.3% pts. In Italy)
•
German unemployment fell by only 0.5 %pts. in the past year, but is very low at 4.2%.
–
Unemployment rates are under 4% in Iceland, Japan, Korea and Mexico, and under 5% in six other OECD countries.
–
US unemployment was unchanged at 4.9% in August 2016, down 0.2 %pts.
from 1 year earlier. While unemployment is back to its pre-crisis level, employment and participation remain well below their pre-crisis levels.
•
The OECD area employment rate rose to 66.8% in 2016Q1, just shy of its pre-crisis peak. The post-crisis rise in the participation rate explains why unemployment remains significantly above its pre-crisis level despite employment having essentially
recovered.
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• Editorial – OECD countries need to address the migration backlash
• Chapter 1. Recent developments in international migration movements and policies
• Chapter 2. Labour market outcomes of recent migrants and integration policies
• Chapter 3. The economic impact of migration: Why the local level matters
• Chapter 4. International migration following environmental and geopolitical shocks:
How can OECD countries respond?
2016 edition of International Migration Outlook
High-level side event at the UNGA (20/09/2016) hosted by Canada with:
• Mr. Angel Gurría, Secretary General of the OECD
• Mr. Dimitris Avramopoulos, European Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs and Citizenship
• H.E. Morgan Johansson, Minister of Justice and Migration of Sweden
• Ms. Marta Morgan, Deputy Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship of Canada
Sharp increase of permanent migration flows to OECD countries in 2015
Evolution of permanent migration inflows to OECD countries
Distribution of permanent flows to OECD countries by category in 2014
Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016)
Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016) 4.1
4.7 4.4
4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1
4.3 4.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e)
Millions
Work
14% Acc. family of workers
7%
Family 33%
Humanitarian 9%
Other 5%
Free movement
32%
4
Permanent migration as a share of population ranges from 4 to 40 per thousand
Permanent migration to OECD countries by category as a percentage of the population, 2014
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
% Work Family Free movement Other 3.6
Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016)
• Permanent migration from third countries to the EU is comparable to
that of the US 5
Temporary (labour) migration is increasing fast as well
Temporary labour migration flows, 2014
Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016)
Thousands
(2014) Evolution %
(2013-2014) No. countries included
Seasonal workers 643 +27% 16
Intra-corporate transfers 141 +17% 10
Posted workers 1 436 +9% 24
Trainees 127 +17% 8
Working holiday makers 483 +5% 10
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More than 3 millions international students in OECD countries
• International students representent 6 % of tertiary students in OECD countries. This share rises to 12 % at master’s level, and to 27 % at doctorate level.
• Among international students, 55 % of doctorates granted were in science or in engineering.
International students in OECD countries – Main countries of origin and destination
Source: Education at a Glance, (OCDE, 2016) 0
5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Total tertiary Master's/Doctoral
10 main destination countries, 2014 10 main origin countries, 2013
0 5 10 15 20 25
%
Total tertiary
Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016)
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Integration in the LM remains a challenge in several European OECD countries
Employment rates of recent migrants (>5 years) by region of origin in selected OECD countries, 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EU-15 EU - New member States Non-EU
Place of birth =>
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Asia Europe Other
Selected European OECD countries Selected non-European countries Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016)
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An unprecedented number of asylum applications in 2015
Evolution of number of new asylum seekers, 1980-2016
Source: UNHCR, Eurostat, OECD calculations
• Germany is the main receiving country for asylum seekers in absolute terms (440k applications registered in 2015 but over one million pre-registrations) but Sweden is number one in relative terms (1,6% of the population)
• 4.8 million refugees in neighbouring countries of Syria including 2.7 million in Turkey, 1.07 million in Lebanon and 640k in Jordan at the end of 2015.
0 500 1000 1500
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thousands
OECD EU
- 500 1,000
2016 Jan-Jun
9
2016: continuing but decreasing entries
Source: UNHCR (22/09/2016)
10
Alternative pathways for people in need of international protection
Target group of beneficiaries outside the country
Resettlement
Alternative general mobility pathways Alternative
Humanitarian pathways
11
Resettlement effort needs to be scaled up in the context of large movements of refugees
11 11 9 9 6 13 12 9 11 12 12 13 10
12 12 20 60
80 71
51 66
66 73 67 7
9 7
6 7
7 8 11
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thousands
Grand Total Other United States Canada Australia
Source: UNHCR.
Number of resettlements, 1994-2015
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Assessing the potential of alternative pathways for Syrians in the OECD
Students
Potential 150-200 thousand
Syrians, in neighbouring countries,
were previously enrolled in tertiary
education
Current Since 2010, about 15 300 Syrians have been granted a student
permit in the OECD
Work
Potential 1.9 million Syrians of
working age are registered in neighbouring countries
Current Since 2010, about 18 200 Syrians have been granted a work permit in the OECD
Family
Potential Up to 400 000 spouses and children may have been left behind by
Syrian refugees in Europe
Current Since 2010, 27 600 persons have been reunited with Syrian refugees and 44 300 with other residents in
the OECD
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Lessons learnt and policy implications
Effective international cooperation can not be taken
for granted in case of mass displacements
Protracted crises generate growing tensions between the need to find durable solutions and the general preference for
short-term measures
Selection, which is a common feature of most migration systems, needs to be rethought
in the context of international
protection frameworks 14
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Outcomes of the summits on refugees and migrants
- The New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants
- A comprehensive refugee response framework What is next ?
Adopt a global compact on refugees and a global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration in 2018
Develop guidelines on the treatment of migrants in vulnerable situations
- Increase contributions to humanitarian organizations and U.N. appeals in 2016/17 by
$4.5 billion
- Doubling the number of resettled refugees to more than 360 000 in 2016/17
- Contributions to help more than one million children who are refugees get an education & one million refugees get training, new skills or find a job
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Thank you
Contact: [email protected]
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