Korea-Tanzania Cooperation on STI Policy

April 28, 2017

Korea-Tanzania Cooperation on STI Policy

: Developing a National Technology Roadmap for Accelerated Industrialization

Johng-Ihl Lee

Prepared for the Consultations on the Development of National Technology

Roadmap in Tanzania, April 28, 2017

CONTENTS

Part A : Preface

Part B : Technology

Part C : Technology Forecasting Part D : Technology Roadmap Part E : Remarks

Part A: Preface

The most important thing is……

USA

5 countries takes 75.3% : The World

218,000 patents filed in 2015

Germany

Korea

Japan

China

South Africa (314)

3 countries takes 82.3% : Africa

489 patents filed by Africa in 2015

Others (82)

Korea (14,626) Egypt

(58)

Morocco (35)

 Developing

 Good resources

 Potentials

 52 million people

 Strong Neighbor?

 Slow world economy

Comparing Tanzania and Korea(1)

Tanzania(now) Korea(1960’s)

 Developing

 Little resources

 No Potentials

 25 million people

 Strong Neighbor!

 World economy

 Good infrastructure

 Human resources : English

 The 3

Revolution

 ‘Innovation’ as a way out

 Leadership and strategy

 Innovation to R&D

: Another Unique Model!’

Comparing Tanzania and Korea(2)

Tanzania(now)

8

Korea(1960’s)

 Little infrastructure

 Human resources : High literacy

 The 2

revolution

 ‘Trade’ as a way out

 Imbalance strategy

 Trade-Industry-R&D

: Proved nonlinear path

 Trade Related Subsidy

 Regional Development

 SME’s

 Pre-competitive R&D

WTO Regime since 1995

The Rise of Nationalism

 Technology is the key to enter new markets.

- Major entry to barrier

 Technology is essential to a nation’s production.

- Product, Process, and Service innovation

 Technology is a typical asymmetric warfare.

- Disruptive as an effective and efficient tool

 Technology is the offspring of complex system.

- Knowing a little bit of everything! : esp. systems.

 Technology is the outcome of collaboration.

- Individual creativity and collective learning

What Technology means to Policy

10

Government’s Roles for Technology

Providing Legal Solution International

Framework R&D

Programs

Cashing-in System(VC)

HRD Growth

Strategy

Entrepre- neurship

Supply and Demand

Technology NIS Infrastructure

Part B: Technology

Acquisition of Technology

R&D (Applied) R&D

(Basic)

Commerciali- zation IPR Purchase Strategic

Alliance

IPR

(Patent Troll)

Means of Acquiring Technologies

R&D

(Applied)

R&D (Basic)

Commerciali- zation IPR Purchase Strategic

Alliance

IPR

(Patent Troll)

Money Technology Systems Market

 Risk or uncertainty

: technical, human, institutional and market

 Unpredictability of Outcome

 Binding

: by consumers, by standards, and even by unknown gods

 Disruptiveness

 Obsolescence

Characteristics of R&D

 Convergence

- Mechatronics, NIT, BIT, NBIT

 Mega Science

- CERN’s the experiment on a mini-big bang

 Interdisciplinary

- Universities, Research Institutes, Corporations and Others all over the world

 Framework Developing

- Time to market and Time of market!

 Nationalism and Globalism - Israel, MNC’s

Recent Trends in R&D

 Non-Linear: Multi-linear or Complex

 Non-Space-specific: Concurrent

 Non-Democratic: Does it favor communism?

 Non-Technology: Necessary, but not sufficient

 Non-Stochastic: It is rather a random walk.

Understanding R&D Activities

1. Big data 2. Biosensors 3. Biomedicine(advanced gene therapy) 4. Distributed Energy System

: storage and harvesting, renewable energy 5. Internet of Things 6. Wearables

7. Industrial Robots 8. AI

9. Electric Vehicle 10. Driverless car

10 Future Technologies

Can R&D cure all?

Part C:

Technology Forecasting

Technology Forecasting and NTRM

TF

National Mission

Market

Acquisition Strategy

Components of NTRM

TF for the Higher Probability

Objective Probability

 Illusion

: Casino or Lotto

 Probability Theory

: The Birth Day Paradox Subjective

Probability

TF is increasing two probabilities.

+

Planning and Strategies

Project &

Program Management

TRM Commerciali

-zation

TF related Issues

R&D

Time to market

Technology Assessment

Expert Pool

S&T Policy

Research Institutes

VC &

Angels

Universities Technology IPR

Portfolio

Companies

International

Cooperation IT

Management

Government

 Prioritize R&D

 Plan new technology and product development

 Make strategic decisions on technology licensing, joint ventures and so forth

 Establish Experts’ Network

* Firat and et al, 2008

Purposes of Technology Forecasting

Similar Concepts

 Technology monitoring, technology watching

 Technology intelligence and competitive intelligence

 Technology forecasting: anticipating the direction and pace of changes

 Technology roadmap

 Technology assessment and forms of impact assessment

 Technology foresight at a national and regional level

TF vs TF

Technology Forecasting

Technology Foresight Target Technology Industry/Nation

S&T Time to Market/

Specific technologies

S&T/

Strategies

Tool Consensus

(Survey/Committee)

Consensus

(Committee/Survey)

Outcome Planning Directions

Result R&D policy Process

Properties of Technology Forecasting

 TF focuses on specific technologies

 The scope is sometimes encompassing

 The importance of TF is emphasized over time : The number of related journals doubled

during 2000-06

 TF is culture specific.

 TF outcome leads to planning.

TF Families

1. Expert Opinion

2. Trend Analysis

3.

Monitoring and Intelligence

Methods

4.

Statistical Methods

5. Modeling and Simulation

6.

Scenarios

7. Valuing/

Decision/

Economic Methods

8.

Descriptive and Matrices Methods

9.

Creativity

The 10 Worst Technology Predictions

1. 1876: “The Americans have need of the telephone.

But we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”

- William Preece, British Post Office

2. 1876: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”

- William Orton, President of Western Union.

3. 1889

“Fooling around with alternating current (AC)

is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.”

Thomas Edison

The 10 Worst Technology Predictions

4. 1903

“The horse is here to stay

but the automobile is only a novelty: a fad.”

HORACE Rackham,

President of the Michigan Savings Bank, advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

The 10 Worst Technology Predictions

5. 1955

“Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably a reality within 10

years.” Alex Lewyt, President of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company.

The 10 Worst Technology Predictions

6. 1961

“There is practically no chance communications space satellite will be used to provide better telephone, television or radio service inside the US.”

T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission(FCC) Commissioner

7. 1966

“Remote shopping,

while entirely feasible, will flop.”

Time Magazine.

8. 1995

“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly

supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”

Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com.

The 10 Worst Technology Predictions

33

9. 1981

“Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.”

Marty Cooper, inventor.

10. 2007

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”

Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.

The 10 Worst Technology Predictions

Part D

: Technology Roadmap(TRM)

Why Technology Roadmap(TRM)?

The plan which matches

1. short-term and long-term goals

2. with specific technology solutions 3. to help meet those goals, such as

4. developing a new product or process

5. or to an emerging technology

Pool of Experts

: Industry, academia, GRI’s

:

Governance/Network

: Leadership

Methodology

: Policy research, cultural approach

Three Factors of Technology Roadmap

Science Push

Peer Survey

Demand Pull

Japan Germany

Korea

Obey the Culture!: TF Strategies

Korea

Australia, UK Japan,

Germany

What will be

What could be What should be

You cannot please all: Focus!

Options of TRM

Priority Possibility

Policy

Steering Committee

Universities, Companies, Corporate Research Institutes, Government Research Institutes, Associations

Technical Group 4 Technical Group 3

Technical Group 2 Technical Group 1

Establish a Strategic Procedure!

Application of Methodology

Developing Methodology

- Goals and Scope - Experts / Committee

- Policy Goal - Action Plan

Technology Environment

Introduction of R&D Projects

- Delphi Method - Factor Analysis

The outcome talks!

Case 1: Technology Roadmap(TRM) in Korea

Case 2: MCTL in the USA

Aeronautics Systems Technology Armaments and Energetic Materials Biological Technology

Biomedical Technology Chemical Technology

Directed and Kinetic Energy Systems Energy Systems Technology

Electronics Technology

Ground Systems Technology Information Systems Technology

Lasers, Optics, and Imaging Technology Processing and Manufacturing Technology Marine Systems Technology

Materials and Processes Technology Nuclear Systems Technology

Positioning, Navigation, and Time Technology Information Security Technology

Signature Control Technology

Militarily Critical Technologies List

The major technology categories in the MCTL include: 20 categories To provide the technical foundation for decisions on the followings

- Proposals for export control, for licensing and export control policies

- Pre-publication review of scientific papers - Tasking for intelligence collection.

- Research and development planning.

- International technology cooperation and transfer

Evolution of TRM in Korea and USA

MAE(Maps for Advanced Era)

: Online Service on Technology roadmap

http://www.mae.or.kr/main/jsp/user_index.jsp

NTTC(National Technology Transfer Center) : ‘Another Gigantic Tomb of Technology’?

Korea’s Passion

American Manufacturing

Types of TRM

Part E: Remarks

1. Three Implications for Successful TF

 Silicon Valley and Teheran Valley : Ecology

 LoL in Korea : Infrastructure

 Steve Jobs and SAMSUNG

2. Important Tips for a Good NTRM

1. Gut Instinct : Minority or majority 2. Raw Data : Stand on the ground

3. Information : Trust Power of the process 4. Knowledge : Respect the specialists

5. Credibility : Human and technical 6. Bias : TOT of the artillery

Global + Market + Expertise + Portfolio

3. Tanzania and Korea

Tanzania

Religion, Colony

Location, Neighbors

4. Congo and Korea, the Republic

Per capita Income

$ 27,970

$ 3,147

$ 156

$ 130

5. Policy Suggestions for Tanzania TRM Prime Directives

: Growth or Development? or both?

Industries + Experts + Development Plan

1. Foundation for Consensus

2. Strategic Models specific

to Tanzania

3. Feasible Goals

4. Securing Objectivity

5. Implementing Outcomes

6. Strategies for a TRM of Tanzania

1. Leadership leads to Governance

2. Know the Facts and Truth! Not dreams!

3. Set the best and ambitious goals 4. You know yourselves. Not others.

5. The future is made

; consensus building, not accurate prediction Holistic Approach

: Your own ways for your own goals

7. Tips for Technology areas of Tanzania’s TRM

1. Obey your parents: Industry 4.0 2. Never go against mother nature - Agriculture, Energy and ICT

3. Find your own comparative advantage 4. Secure the world best industry

such as Shipping and steel industries in Korea 5. Love your neighbor: Global partners

Focus on the present for the future Banana university

Corn Institute

ICT Park

Solar Hub

The Mpemba Effect vs The Hangeul

Asante sana !

고맙습니다!

Dr. Johng-Ihl Lee

Professor,

Department of Technology and Society

Dean,

Department of Planning and Public Relations

Executive Director,

GDI(Global Development Institute)

[email protected]

SUNY Korea