The use of the scenarios in the operations

The scenarios described in this document will guide the decision-making process on how, where and when to allocate resources. Some of the features indicating which scenario is underway might be already observable; others might come to light quite late in the process, requiring last-minute reorientation. The following table underlines the possible technical choices to be made depending on the scenario.

Campaign Description 2016 2017

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Scenarios Actions to be implemented The optimist

scenario:

 Preparation and implementation of a dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, livestock and fisheries production (including income-generating activities in agro-processing);

 Accelerated deployment of FAO and its partners in areas of return for need assessments and strong linkage with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to ensure proper monitoring of the returns;

 Development of a strategy with national partners (SEMA, NEMA, ministries, civil society) for agricultural, livestock and fisheries rehabilitation in the newly accessible areas;

 Active preparation for large-scale intervention in agricultural input distribution, livestock and fisheries interventions through all possible means in order to recapitalize rural households and facilitate their recovery;

 Feasibility study to identify means to facilitate the integration of IDPs that decide not to return to their areas of origin. Urban farming, agro-processing and other livelihood options have to be identified and tested;

 Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption;

 Strengthening of the food security and livelihood coordination mechanisms at the Federal, State and LGA levels.

The second best scenario:

 Preparation and implementation of a dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, livestock and fisheries production;

 Accelerated deployment of FAO and its partners in areas of return for need assessments; and strong linkage with IOM to ensure proper monitoring of the returns;

 Development of a strategy with national partners (SEMA, NEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of the programmes in both urban and peri-urban areas to facilitate the insertion of IDPs that decide not to return to their areas of origin. Urban farming, agro-processing and other livelihood options have to be identified and tested;

 Develop a strategy for the areas still hard to reach, to ensure a certain availability of agro-inputs in these areas;

 Active preparation for large-scale interventions in agricultural inputs distribution through all possible means in order to recapitalize rural households and facilitate their recovery. Priority is likely to be given to the LGA located in the southern parts of Borno, Yobe and to Adamawa States;

 Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption;

 Strengthening of food security and livelihood coordination mechanisms at Federal, State and LGA levels.

The limited improvement scenario:

 Preparation and implementation of a enhanced dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, aquaculture and livestock production which can continue with adaptation during the rainy season;

 Development of a strategy with national partners (municipal councils, SEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of the programmes aiming at facilitating the flow of agro-inputs to areas hard to reach;

 Reinforce the collaboration with IOM for displacement tracking to ensure high level of readiness in case the situation further evolves;

 Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption;

The degraded scenario:

 Increase the availability of seeds and other agro-inputs in Maiduguri so people can create some forms of livelihood;

 Development of a strategy with national partners (municipal councils, SEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of programmes in the new areas of displacement (access to land and water to be negotiated rapidly) in order to stimulate the absorption capacity of the host communities and to help IDPs to rapidly develop some forms of livelihood);

The worst case scenario

 FAO presence is reduced to a base minimum as most international staff and state and LGA administration are evacuated

 Activities are relocated to the accessible areas in the southern parts of the northeast region, where at least some basic access can be ensured.

20 The geographical implications of these scenarios are presented below:

Budget

The following budget has been prepared for the Action Plan:

Effective food security coordination, analysis and information management

Sector coordination

Food security sector coordination is essential to enhance the quality of the response, avoid duplication and limit the risks of gaps, especially given the complex agro-ecological and highly fluid political situations, the rapidly growing number of international actors and the important role played by the national institutions (federal and state levels). Strong sector coordination, co-led by the Government, FAO and WFP is already established. In addition, food security analysis for evidence-based information (Cadre Harmonisé and seed security assessment for instance) and information management are key to the food security, nutrition and agricultural recovery of northeast Nigeria.

• As part of its responsibility as co-lead agency for food security sector coordination, FAO will contribute to:

o strengthening the coordination structure in place to ensure the most efficient coverage, reduce gaps, avoid duplication and enhance the coherence of operations through the development of partners activities’ mapping, facilitation of coordination meetings, strengthening of information management; and

o capacity building for sector partners.

Support to coordination is provided through the deployment of a Sector Coordinator and an Information Management Officer and the provision of a national Assistant Cluster Coordinator.

 As there will be very significant seed needs in a least three of the possible scenarios, it is suggested to establish a seeds supply coordination Task Force as a sub-group of the Food security sector, which can focus more precisely on seeds supply programme/planning/operation, etc.

 Under its mandate, FAO will ensure proper coordination with State and Federal agricultural institutions such as Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock, and meteorological institutions. It will pay due attention to the plans elaborated by the Government of Nigeria, in particular the Buhari Plan prepared under the leadership of the office of the Deputy Prime Minister.

 In addition, FAO regional coordination with other neighbouring countries (Lake Chad Basin – Niger,

Campaign Description Target beneficiary

households

Estimated budget Dry season

2016–17

Support to mixed cropping with vegetables and

farming inputs 48 000 6 624 000

Support to livestock (animal health and feeding) 80 000 3 200 000

Main season 2017

Nutrition-sensitive agriculture through mixed cropping of cereals, pulses and vegetables and farming inputs

22 Chad and Cameroon), will be critical as the crisis has a regional impact with common cross-border issues (displacements, transhumance, etc.).

Inclusive, comprehensive and targeted food security analysis and information management

Food security information and analysis is an essential tool for managing crisis situations, as their seasonal and conflict-related parameters are subject to many predictable and unpredictable changes that affect significantly both the needs of the population and the operational environment where FAO and its partners operate.

 FAO will continue supporting the regular production of updated evidence-based information for the food security sector through its engagement in the Cadre Harmonisé process and other food security and vulnerability analysis.

 FAO will undertake and support partners in the organization of assessments in relevant technical areas:

food security and livelihood assessment (sector-led), land tenure assessment (with focus on areas with high concentration of IDPs and returnees’ areas, FAO-led), livestock assessment with a focus on pastoralists and the use and status of transhumance routes (FAO-led).

 FAO will coordinate and collaborate with all other initiatives aimed at monitoring the evolution of the situation, including the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix and OCHA constant surveillance data about changes in the context.

 FAO will collaborate and coordinate with national institutions in charge of agriculture in all concerned states and at the federal level.

 FAO will support lessons learning and exchange of experience among partners through after action reviews, documentation, evaluations and sharing of good practices.

Strengthening FAO’s capacity in Nigeria

A scaling up of FAO operations and strengthening of presence in northeast Nigeria and in Maiduguri in particular started in June. Given the deteriorating food security situation in northeast Nigeria, FAO declared a corporate surge response on 21 July 2016. The new sub-office in Maiduguri is currently staffed with six people, including a senior Emergency Response Manager, an international Operations Officer, an Emergency Programme Officer, a national Administrative and Finance Assistant and other support staff. Further efforts are being made to fill, as soon as possible, additional technical positions (agricultural, livestock and fisheries experts), a Monitoring and Evaluation Officer and a Communication Officer, with a view to having a team of 12 people. Hence, FAO has built sufficient technical and operational capacity to implement this Action Plan.

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Next steps: Strengthening the resilience of crisis-affected communities

Linking emergency to recovery and resilience

In line with the Humanitarian Programme Cycle 2017 in Nigeria, which will move towards a multi-year planning exercise, FAO is developing its own medium-term plan.

Building on the emergency programme and the nine-month plan, a resilience approach will be designed with the goal of strengthening resilience of affected communities and linking Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon in a coordinated regional approach to enhance resilience. The regional approach will be based on their shared resource (Lake Chad), a short-term common burden (the Boko Haram insurgency), and a long-term problem (climate change). As stated in several in-depth studies of the regional agro-ecosystems, the resilience of this area was largely linked to its “3 M” strategy – mobility, multi-activity, multipurpose land use under the LCBC. FAO’s approach will support the “3 M” system that characterizes large part of the existing agro-ecosystems in northeast Nigeria and beyond. FAO will focus its intervention in the three areas of Yobe, Adamawa and Borno on support to sustainable and peaceful access and use of natural and economic resources, as well as on conflict mitigation mechanisms (based on already tested approaches based on dialogue and negotiation). FAO will contribute to the resilience of the population of the region through diverse approaches used alone or in combination: sustainable fisheries, Safe Access to Fuel and Energy, job creation, development of caisses de résilience, support to food value chains, rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure, support to sustainable water management, livestock intervention including rehabilitation of transhumance corridors, etc. FAO will target IDPs in host communities and informal camps, youth and returnees with or without access to land and affected pastoralist and fishing communities, etc.

Specific mechanisms will be put in place to ensure that the most vulnerable IDPs can also benefit from these programmes (through the establishment of solidarity groups, etc.).

Resilience strengthening needs its champions and these might not be exclusively among the poorest. Market rehabilitation, support to specialized farmers able to produce seeds of adequate quality and private veterinarians and paramedics will also be key ingredients of the programme.

Through community-based social protection mechanisms, such as the caisses de résilience and access to credit, FAO will focus its action on vulnerable returnees (women- and youth-headed households). The detailed approach and channels through which these objectives are going to be achieved will be defined in a feasibility study.

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Support the development of a multi-stakeholder resilience agenda in the Lake Chad region

Resilience is the multidimensional outcome of multi-sectoral interventions often involving a large set of agencies and donors. Coordination is thus critical and FAO will play its full role into this.

 It is essential to fully liaise and coordinate with the plans of the federal and state governments, including around the Buhari Plan “Rebuilding the North East”.

 Coordination at the Lake Chad basin level is also critical and FAO Nigeria, together with the FAO representations in other countries of the region, will duly liaise with the LCBC.

 Large-scale development agencies and banks have demonstrated an interest in participating in strengthening the resilience of the Lake Chad region. FAO will make all efforts to contribute to this collective endeavour.

 FAO intends to play a catalyst role in informing the collective response with a resilience-oriented perspective by providing technical guidance especially on livelihood related approaches and mechanisms and by promoting a synergic approach with other UN agencies and NGOs involved in the response to the crisis.

Conflict prevention and peace building

The Boko Haram insurgency raises from a feeling of unfairness in the redistribution of national revenues and inappropriate management of faith-based issues. This conflict is rooted in a long-term process of discrediting state institutions and is linked to the absence or inefficient management of development aid in the area, a rapid evolution of the demographic profile of the population around the Chad Lake and its periphery and the growth of the influence of radicalism in contexts where there is a largely spread feeling of abandonment. Although this is not a classic civil conflict based on ethnic drivers, the history and the ethnical constitution of the area – with its specific social contracts in relation to natural resource management – is such that ethnic issues could be used by as a catalyst if the roots of the current conflict are not quickly and properly addressed.

From the onset of its intervention, FAO will introduce an approach to recreate a feeling of citizenship with the redevelopment of relations between the population and the agricultural institutions. Through its presence, FAO will advocate for northeast Nigeria to receive proper attention by national and federal institutions, humanitarian and development agencies and donors. FAO will also facilitate the processes for land access for IDPs and returnees through dialogue and negotiation.

The changing demographic patterns due to the conflict have significantly modified many social contracts between rural communities and have created new cohabitation needs in the urban and peri-urban areas.

While relations between IDPs and host communities have been peacefully managed, there is always a risk, if the situation prolongs, that hospitality in a resource scarce context will reach its limits. Several activities will be designed and implemented to address this issue.

25

Contacts

FAO Nigeria

Ms Louise Setshwaelo

FAO Representative, Abuja, Nigeria FAO-NG@fao.org

Mr Tim Vaessen

FAO Emergency Response Manager, FAO Suboffice, Maiduguri, Nigeria Tim.Vaessen@fao.org

FAO Subregional Resilience Team for West Africa/Sahel (REOWA)

Mr Patrick David

Head of REOWA and FAO Representative in Senegal, ad interim Patrick.David@fao.org

FAO headquarters

Mr Dominique Burgeon

Resilience Coordinator and Director, Emergency and Rehabilitation Division TCE-Director@fao.org

www.fao.org/emergencies | www.fao.org/resilience

©FAO, 2016 I6328En/1/10.16