지역개발사업의 파급효과 분석기법 및 적용 연구(RR 2001-13) Yong-Woong Kim and Mi-Sook Cha
December 2001․317 pages․Korean
Since the full-fledged local autonomy system was reinstated in 1995, local governments have ambitiously launched various regional development projects such as the construction of a industrial estate, a tourism site without serious consideration to the impacts of the projects on local economy. As a result, most regional development projects have not been successful due to the lack of demands. At the end of 2000, the size of industrial estates which were not sold on schedule after construction accounted for around 28 square kilometers worth of 2 billion US dollars. As for the tourist and resort area development, only 9 projects out of 200 proposed projects have been accomplished. The rest of the development projects have been delayed due to the lack of demand. The poor performance of regional development projects are mainly attributed to the inaccurate analysis of feasibility and economic impact of proposed regional development projects.
The purpose of this study is to improve analysis techniques and their applications for more accurate analysis of economic impacts of regional development projects. This study reviews a wide range of analysis techniques and models which measure economic impacts on a local economy. It helps practitioners to identify the characteristics and the limitations of different analysis techniques and to select appropriate techniques according to the purpose of analysis. It is followed by the examination of previous economic impact analyses of regional development projects such as the development of industrial estates and tourism sites. It is essential to identify the problems and weakness of current studies to improve impact analysis techniques and their applications. This paper proposes analysis process and techniques to improve the validity of economic impact
analyses. This study concludes with some policy recommendations to ensure that future economic impact analysis is properly conducted.
Chapter two reviews the concepts of 'impact analysis' to define appropriate techniques and models. Three different types of analysis techniques are identified as appropriate economic analysis techniques such as regional multiplier analysis, regional input-output analysis and comprehensive evaluation techniques. They include economic base model, Keynesian model and regional econometric models as major regional multiplier analysis techniques, and intra-regional input-output model and multi-regional input-output model as regional input-output analysis techniques. Each analysis technique is reviewed in terms of its basic concept, composition, characteristics, limitations and applicability. But no detail examination was made on the analysis techniques for comprehensive evaluation which are less directly related to economic impact analysis of regional policy and projects.
Chapter three examines the limitations of previous economic impact analyses of regional development projects such as industrial estates and tourism sites development.
Thirty five cases are examined in terms of target, process and techniques of analysis, and the validity of its result. Since some of regional development projects have been completed long before, it is possible to compare some of estimation results of researches with actual data. Through the comparison a variety of problems are found. First, most economic impact analyses were undertaken as a part of planning study which assumed the feasibility of the projects. Economic impact analyses are used to justify the initiation of proposed projects rather than to provide relevant information whether the proposed projects should be implemented. Second, positive economic impacts of regional development were excessively overestimated in previous analyses. The overestimation of economic impacts were mainly attributed to the current study behavior which accepted the basic assumption of demands and direct impacts of proposed projects without any objective and scientific analyses. Third, most economic impact analyses were not supported by empirical data or actual survey. They were mainly concerned with the creation of analysis models or techniques which measure indirect and induced impacts without examination of the validity of input data. Fourth, previous economic analyses
made no clear distinction between total economic impacts and local economic impacts. In addition, previous economic impact analyses were not clear about time spans in which economic impacts were created. There are also problems and limitations in applying techniques and models because they were not carefully selected according to specific purposes of the analyses.
Chapter four suggests some recommendations to improve the process and techniques for impact analysis as follows:
< Approach to the impacts analysis of a regional development project >
StepⅠ
Clarifying the Purpose of Analysis
⇩ Step Ⅱ
Assessment of the Marketability and Estimating Demand of Private Investment
⇩ Step Ⅲ
Analyzing Impacts of Regional Development Projects on Regional Economies (multiplicand)
⇩ Step Ⅳ
Setting up Models for Analysis and Estimating Indirect Impacts
⇩ Step Ⅴ
Interpretation of Results and Policy Recommendations
Based on the examination of recommendations, the following three chapters such as Chapter five, Chapter six and Chapter seven show how economic impact analysis can be improved by modifying analysis techniques and models. Chapter five deals with modified economic base model to measure the economic impacts of industrial estates,
while Chapter six introduces the application of dynamic multi-regional social accounting matrix to measure local economic impacts of tourism development. The modified economic base model enables to minimize the problems of unrealistic assumption of prototype economic base model. It is suggested that the modified model improve the accuracy of analysis. The dynamic multi-regional social accounting matrix was developed by combining social accounting matrix (SAM) with computable general equilibrium model (CGE). This model identifies the dynamic nature of economic impacts of tourism development through estimating economic impacts at macro- and micro-levels and also measuring price effects and substitution effects between goods or production factors.
Chapter seven reviews non-survey methodologies and techniques used for constructing an inter-regional input-out model and multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) and proposes some technical improvements. It suggests adopting a multi-staged mixed estimation approach for the improvement of the accuracy of input-output models. The last chapter summarizes the study and proposes some policy recommendations to ensure that economic impact analysis can be used as meaningful information to determine the suitability of regional development policy or projects.
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Industrial Agglomerations and Regional Clusters in an Information Era
지식정보화시대의 산업입지 및 군집체계 연구(RR 2001-18)
Dong-Ju Kim, Young-Sub Kwon, et. al.
December 2001․270 pages․Korean
This study aims to examine industrial agglomerations and regional clusters and to provide policy directions to cluster system development in Korea. A regional cluster, which is defined as a geographic concentration of related companies and institutions in a particular industrial field, now plays a critical role in terms of innovation and
knowledge production, rather than in terms of geographical proximity which can simply reduce costs in production. In order to strengthen industrial competitiveness and regional economies, innovative regional clusters are encouraged at the national and regional levels in most advanced countries.
The study is organized as follows: Chapter 2 reviews relevant theories on regional clusters and policies on regional clusters systems in domestic and foreign countries. The Chapter then develops a framework to evaluate the types and innovative performance of a cluster. Chapter 3 identifies industrial agglomerations by regions in Korea and examines the inter-industrial linkages in selected major industries by analyzing forward and backward linkages in a supply chain. Chapter 4 contains the evaluation of cluster structure and characteristics of selected regional industries through in-depth case studies.
Chapter 5 provides policy implications to set up innovative cluster systems in Korea and some concluding remarks.
As similarly defined by Roberta Capello in 1999, the study classifies the types and development status of industrial clusters into three stages: geographical proximity, industrial district (or cluster), and innovative cluster (or milieu innovateur). For identifying each type of cluster, the following five factors underlying the development of clusters are reviewed: "Localization" to be reduced transaction costs due to the agglomeration of firms, "networking" to exchange technology and information among related firms and supporting institutions, "embeddedness and institutional thickness" to set informal and tacit transfers of information and know-how among firms with trust and social interactions, "collective learning" as a vehicle for spatial transfer of knowledge, and "innovative synergies" among actors and labour force to create interactive mechanism leading to innovation. In this study, a regional industry can be defined as an industrial cluster, when it has the elements of localization, networking, and embeddedness and institutional thickness of the agglomeration. Prior to the specific evaluation of regional industrial clusters, regional industrial agglomerations are identified and mapped by location and types of industry. It is identified that most industrial agglomerations in Korea are located in major cities along the Gyeongbu development axis, which connects Capital Region to the Busan Metropolitan City. Then,
inter-industrial relations are analyzed by considering forward and backward linkages among industries.
Afterward, the development status of selected regional clusters in Korea are evaluated through survey and in-depth case studies. For the case studies, the following three regional industrial agglomerations are selected by industry types and locational characteristics, such as electronic industry in Gumi City, information and communication technology (ICT) industry in Daejon City, and biotechonogy/pharmaceutical industry in South-Gyeonggi Areas. In-depth interviews are especially conducted for related firms and supporting agencies, such as universities/research institutes, government agencies and other organizations that provide training, education, information, research and technical support. The number of interviewees is 58 firms in Gumi City, 137 firms in Daejon City, and 30 biotechonogy/pharmaceutical firms in South-Gyeonggi Areas.
The survey and in-depth interviews cover three main themes: first, production systems for measuring the levels of localization and networking of the industry, including the characteristics of firms and labour markets, such as employees, labour turnover, the relationship with suppliers and customers; second, supporting systems for measuring the levels of embeddedness and institutional thickness of the industry, such as collaborative business networks with supporting agencies; and third, innovation systems for measuring the levels of collective learning and innovative synergy.
Major findings of the survey and in-depth interviews are summarized as follows:
Gumi City with electronic industry has a few of cluster engines in the region, consisting of large size firms with their own research institutes. However, roles of supporting agencies which have functions of researches and technological innovation are relatively weak. In the strategic networking, it is observed that relationships between large firms and small and medium-sized firms in terms of input-output linkages are stronger than relationships among small and medium-sized firms.
In case of Daejon City, ICT industry is facilitated by local spin-offs consisting of start-up businesses which previously belonged to local firms. Cluster engines consist of a few of large sized research institutes such as KAIST and ETRI, with small venture firms' networks which are spin-offs from large firms. In case of biotechonogy/pharmaceutical
industry in South-Gyeonggi Areas, labour and supporting services can be easily available since it is located near Seoul. However, networking and cooperation among related firms and institutions are relatively weak.
When summing up based upon the results of in-depth empirical studies, the evaluation of the three regional industrial agglomerations can be summarized as follows:
In the Gumi electronic industry, localization and networking are relatively strong, while innovative synergies are relatively weak. Therefore, Gumi electronic industry can be identified at the stage of regional industrial district (cluster) beyond the status of geographical proximity. In case of Daejon ICT industry, innovative synergies are much stronger than Gumi and South-Gyeonggi industries, and can be proceeding to the primitive stage of innovative cluster beyond industrial district. Biotechonogy/
pharmaceutical industry in South-Gyeonggi Areas is evaluated at the stage of beyond geographical proximity and is entering industrial district, since localization and networking are relatively strong, especially in region-wide scale including the capital region.
Based upon the case studies on selected three regional clusters in Korea, following policy implications can be derived: First, it is important for industrial and regional competitiveness to promote strategic innovative clusters system. For this purpose, the examination of potential clusters and mapping should be done at the national level.
Second, networking among local agents such as relevant firms and supporting agencies should be reinforced to boost regional clusters. Third, flexible policies on clusters are required for each type, location, and degree of maturity. To this end, the patterns of possible regional clusters are to be examined and mapped. Fourth, legal and institutional systems on clusters from several government authorities should be improved. Finally, studies on cluster system development should be continued for strengthening industrial and regional competitiveness in Korea.
3 .7