Dynamic Performance Statistics of the Korean Beef Model, 1995-2002.
Variable Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS %
Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error
NBFO51 -1.1% 40,585 5.5% -1.7% 38,816 4.9% -1.7% 34,883 4.8% -1.3% 33,844 4.9% -1.5% 37,032 5.0%
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Dynamic Performance Statistics of the Korean Pork Model, 1995-2002.
Variable Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS %
Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error
NCP53 -0.5% 205 7.0% -0.4% 203 6.7% -0.3% 211 6.5% -0.2% 213 6.5% -0.3% 208 6.7%
NBF53 1.3% 23,336 3.4% 1.5% 20,396 3.1% 1.5% 22,207 3.1% 1.6% 28,663 3.9% 1.5% 23,650 3.4%
NBYPC 1.4% 145,197 4.9% 2.9% 158,767 5.9% 1.9% 112,159 4.1% 0.5% 149,639 5.1% 1.7% 141,441 5.0%
SL53 2.2% 89,074 3.6% 1.8% 70,780 3.5% 2.5% 118,973 5.8% 1.3% 108,983 4.1% 1.9% 96,952 4.3%
NB53 1.6% 214,313 3.6% 2.0% 248,834 4.1% 1.8% 223,714 3.3% 1.4% 249,135 3.5% 1.7% 233,999 3.7%
NP53 -1.8% 13,839 10.1% -0.6% 14,489 9.0% 0.9% 16,542 10.3% 2.4% 17,780 13.0% 0.2% 15,663 10.6%
ACP53 -0.8% 528 2.7% 0.0% 329 1.5% -0.8% 812 2.9% 0.3% 847 3.6% -0.3% 629 2.7%
ACH53 -0.8% 2,902 2.7% 0.8% 2,645 2.2% 0.0% 2,935 2.3% 0.2% 3,555 3.0% 0.0% 3,009 2.5%
Q53 0.6% 8,267 1.3%
CDIS53 0.6% 8,267 1.3%
ANCP53 -0.3% 208 6.6%
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Annual
Dynamic Performance Statistics of the Korean Chicken Model, 1995-2002.
Variable Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS % Mean % Mean Abs RMS %
Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error Error
NCP541 0.5% 131 6.3% 0.6% 126 5.6% 1.0% 132 6.4% 1.1% 135 6.9% 0.8% 131 6.3%
BH541 7.7% 6,096 9.9% -6.9% 8,891 8.7% -6.9% 7,826 8.1% 4.7% 4,190 5.2% -0.3% 6,751 8.0%
SL541 5.3% 4,119 6.0% 0.0% 4,290 5.5% -7.1% 8,953 7.9% -1.2% 2,491 4.1% -0.7% 4,963 5.9%
NB541 11.8% 4,098 17.5% -5.8% 4,145 9.1% -5.3% 2,492 7.4% 8.4% 3,199 10.5% 2.3% 3,483 11.1%
WCP541 1.6% 125 6.3% -2.5% 136 6.6% 6.4% 169 10.9% 4.6% 184 12.1% 2.5% 154 9.0%
NP541 0.9% 90 7.5% -1.9% 67 6.7% 7.7% 111 13.4% 5.2% 123 14.4% 3.0% 98 10.5%
NM541 371.4% 1,459 1056.0% 18.7% 1,298 46.2% 13.9% 965 30.5% 16.4% 1,865 39.0% 105.1% 1,397 292.9%
ACB541 0.2% 37 5.1% 0.7% 44 5.6% -0.2% 48 6.1% -0.1% 48 6.4% 0.1% 44 5.8%
AQ541 -0.9% 6,434 3.0%
CDIS541 -0.4% 5,698 2.4%
ANCP541 0.9% 131 6.3%
M551 9.4% 3,555 22.6%
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Annual
Female Beef Cattle Under 1 Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Female Beef Cattle 1-2 Years
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Female Beef Cattle Over 2 Years
500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Male Beef Cattle Under 1 Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Male Beef Cattle 1-2 Years
150
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Male Beef Cattle Over 2 Years
10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Artificial Inseminations
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Female Beef Cattle Slaughter
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Male Cattle Slaughter
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Calf Production Cost
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Females <1 Moving to 1-2 (Calculated)
20 70 120 170 220
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Males <1 Moving to 1-2 (Calculated)
60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Beef Imports
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Won per 500g
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Male Beef Calf Price
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Number of Sows
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Feeder Pig Production Cost
20 25 30 35 40 45
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Slaughter Hog Production Cost
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Hog Slaughter
2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Head
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Hog Price
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per Head
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Won per 500g
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Millions
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Broiler Production Cost
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Won per Kg
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Tons
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Won per Kg
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Wholesale Chicken Price
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Won per Kg
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Won per 500g
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Beef Consumption
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per 500g
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Pork Production
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per 500g
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Chicken Production
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand MT
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Retail Chicken Price
2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousand Won per 500g
Actual Predicted (Dynamic Simulation)
Appendix 3.
Livestock Outlook
Results
Beef Cattle
The number of cattle and calves in June 2005 is projected to increase to 1,807 thousand heads. June1, 2005 beef cattle inventory is 11.1 percent larger than a previous year and 4.6 percent larger than a previous quarter.
Beef cow inventory (Female over 2 years) is projected to grow continuously. June1, 2005 beef cow inventory is 9.7 percent greater than last year and 3.9 percent greater than last quarter.
The number of beef cattle slaughtered in second quarter of 2005 is projected to slightly decline from a second quarter of 2003. The numbers of beef cattle slaughtered in second quarter of 2005 is projected to 108 thousand heads.
Farm price of female beef cattle (500 kg) in second quarter of 2005 is expected to remain constant from two years ago. Female beef cattle price in second quarter of 2005 is projected to 4790 thousand won per 500 kg - 1.9 percent increase from two years ago.
Beef Cattle Prices
Thousand Won Female (500kg) Cattle
Male (500kg) Cattle
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Thousand Head
Swine
The number of hogs in June 2005 is projected to fall to 8852 thousand heads. June1, 2005 hog inventory is 1.8 percent smaller than a previous year and 1.2 percent greater than a previous quarter.
Sow inventory in June 2005 is projected to remain constant from a year ago. June1, 2005 sow inventory is 1.6 percent greater than a previous year.
The number of hog slaughtered in second quarter of 2005 is expected to decline from two years ago. The number of hog slaughtered in second quarter of 2005 is projected to 3669 thousand heads- about 10 percent decline from two years ago.
Average slaughter hog (100 kg) price in 2004 is projected to 189 thousand won per head-16 percent increase from a previous year. Slaughter hog (100 kg) price is projected to 212 thousand won per head in second quarter of 2005 that is a 26 percent increase from two years ago and a 15 percent increase from a year ago.
Broiler
The number of broilers in June 1, 2005 is projected to remain constant from a previous year.
The broiler inventory is projected to 68671 thousand heads in the second quarter of 2005. Broiler inventory shows strong seasonality. The June 1, 2005 inventory of broiler is expected to rise 77 percent from a previous quarter.
The numbers of broiler slaughtered in second quarter of 2004 and 2005 are respectively projected to years ago and a previous year.
Broiler price in second quarter of 2005 is projected to 1,015 won per kilogram, which is a 1.6 percent increase from a year ago, and 2.8 decrease from two years ago.
References
Huh, Duk. et al., Outlook and Policy for Korean Beef Industry. KREI. 2001.
Jeong, M.K. et al., An Analysis on Beef Marketing and Consumption pattern.
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Jeong, Min-Kook, The Korean and Australian Beef Markets and Prospects for Trade. KREI. 2004.
Kim, K. D. et al. KREI-ASMO99. KREI. 1999.
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Lee, H.W. et al. “Situation and Development for Broiler Outlook Model.” Korea Rural Economic Review. 25 (2002): 97-111.
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