Demography as a National Security Issue
II. Dwindling Communities 1. A Global Trend
Decreases in the population of course are nowadays not a problem limited only to the ROK but are a global trend. This phenomenon began in West Europe, passed on to Japan, proliferated to entire East Asia, and then even extended throughout Latin America. Sara Harper specifically repeats pinpointing the four former Asian dragons, i.e. the ROK, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, where their populations decline dramatically.3
The sole region where the population is still growing is known to be Africa.4 Population contraction forecasts a future world where fewer and older people produce and consume less. This means capitalism may fray or even break down completely.5 In 2011, Nye was also apt at predicting today’s population decline, especially in the East Asian countries.6
3. Harper, S. (2016). How population change will transform our world. 46. 49. 91, 96.
4. Harper, S. (2016). Ibid. vii.
5. Karabell, Z. (2019). The Population Bust: Demographic Decline and the End of Capitalism as We Know It, Foreign Affairs, September/October.
Nicholas Eberstadt reminds us that the United States’ population in 2019 was close to 330 million, larger than that of the UK, German, French, Italian, and Dutch combined whereas it was only 23 million in 1850 when that of France alone was 36 million.7 Eberstadt also alerts that China would face a great national crisis from a rapid drop in the workforce and purchasing power owing to low fertility rates and aging whereas the United States would maintain a stout demographic position in comparison with its competitors for the coming decades.8 He and Verdery further warn that China would have much less wherewithal at its disposal for influencing events abroad through economic diplomacy and defense policy if it requires building a huge social welfare state for the waning of families.9
While the prediction that India will become the world’s most populous country surpassing China in 2025 has long been widely known, it is said that Nigeria will emerge as the world’s third-largest populous nation overpassing the United States before 2050. The gravity of the problem, however, is that the trend of population decreases is the most phenomenal in the ROK among all the countries around the world.
The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations prepares every other year its official estimates and projections of global, regional, and national population size and growth, and demographic indicators. The estimates are based on the medium-fertility scenario which assumes that the world population will grow from 9.4 billion people in 2050 to 10.4 billion in 2100 and 10.8 billion by 2150, and then
6. Nye, J. S. (2011). The Future of Power. 161, 165, 170, 181–182, 189.
7. Eberstadt, N. (2019). With Great Demographics Comes Great Power: Why Population Will Drive Geopolitics. Foreign Affairs July/August.
8. Eberstadt, N. (2019). Ibid.
9. Eberstadt, N. & Verdery, A. (2021). China’s Shrinking Families: The Demographic Trend That Could Curtail Beijing’s Ambitions, Foreign Affairs, April 7.
will stabilize at slightly under 11 billion around 2200.10 This infers that the ROK would need to continue increasing its population until 2200 and to maintain its size thereafter.
2. “Population Cliff” and “Age Quake”
Young Koreans today shun getting married, bear no babies even after they are married, or have only one infant if they do have. To make the situation even worse, soaring suicide rates contribute to faster decreases in population. It has been long since babies’ crying voices disappeared in rural areas. It has also been long since schools of each level began closing, colleges and universities were unable to fill their freshmen quotas, and vacant houses increased not merely in rural villages but also in urban areas.
Harper singles out the ROK as a typical country suffering this phenomenon.11 Per the United Nations Population Fund, the ROK’s total fertility rate― the average number of children born per woman in her life between the ages of 15 and 49―fell from 1.17 to 1.1 just before the incumbent administration’s inauguration on May 10, 2017, the lowest since 1970 and already the lowest among 198 countries surveyed.12 It further went down to 0.84 in the second quarter of 2021, the lowest among the 38 member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and still the lowest worldwide for two years in a row.13 It is shocking but not unexpected to mark the third straight year that the rate was below one percent.
10. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations (1998). World Population Projections to 2050.
11. Harper, S. (2016). Op cit. 105–106, 142–143.
12. World Population Dashboard. https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard 13. Statistics Korea (2021). Population and Housing Census (Register-based Census).
According to the data compiled by Statistics Korea, the number of households with children under 18 fell to 4.87 million in 2019, below 5 million for the first time from the previous year’s 5.04 million.14 Such households made up 23.3 percent of the total 20.9 million in 2019, down 1.3 percent from 2018. As of November 1, 2019, the number of people below 18 reached 7.82 million, down from 8.07 million of the previous year. It accounted for 15.1 percent of the total population of 51.8 million in 2019. Of such households, 50.8 percent had one child, followed by two children with 41.7 percent and three with 6.9 percent. Surprisingly enough, the statistics of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of October 2021 shows that single-member households are 9,400,907 or 40.15 percent of the total 23,415,533 nationwide.
The number of births was maintained above 400,000 from 2012–16, thanks to a bump from the baby boomers who were born between 1955 and 1963, but plummeted to 362,867 in 2017, to 334,115 in 2018, and 308,697 in 2019. As a result, the total population peaked at 51,849,861 in November 2019 but recorded the first natural decline or “dead cross”
in December of that year and then decreased to 51,829,023 by 20,838 with 275,815 newborn babies, by 32,882 (10.65 percent) and less than 307,764 deaths, and by 31,949 as of December 31, 2020. This must represent “a country that the ROK has never experienced.”
There were 272,300 babies born in 2020, a ten percent decrease on-year and again the lowest out of the 38 OECD member states as well as worldwide, even far behind its neighboring countries that are also plagued with demographic decreases: more than twelve million in China and about 840,000 in Japan. In the second quarter of 2021, the number of newborns reached an all-time low of 66,398, down 2.7 percent from the same quarter of
14. Statistics Korea. (2020). http://kostat.go.kr/wnsearchEng/search.jsp?query=population
the previous year. In the same period, the total fertility rate stood at 0.82, down from 0.85 on-year and the lowest for any second quarter.
According to the household and population data Statistics Korea released on November 24, 2021, the number of newborns further dropped to a record low in September of the year in the latest sign that underscores the country’s gloomy demographic situation with chronically low birth rates.
The data shows that the number of live births was 21,920 in September 2021, falling by 6.7 percent on-year. The number of deaths was 25,566, rising by 5.0 percent on-year. The number of marriages was 13,733, dropping by 10.4 percent on-year. The natural increase (live births minus deaths) was marked minus 3,646.15 This resulted in the country’s population marking the 23rd consecutive month of decline, the lowest for any September since 1981 when the statistics agency began compiling related data. The number of deaths rose for the seventh straight month. The data Statistics Korea released on December 9, 2021, shows that the population in the ROK is estimated at 51.75 million, down from the previous year’s 51.83 million.
The data Statistics Korea released on February 23, 2022, showed that the total fertility rate fell from 0.84 in 2020 to the lowest-ever 0.81 in 2021, about a half of the OECD average of 1.61 in 2019. According to the United Nations population statistics, the ROK is the only country in the world where the birthrate is below 1.0. Decreases in birth rates have continued over the last six years since 2016. The number of new births dropped to 260,500 in 2021 from 272,300 by 4.3%, less than a half of 559,934 in 2001, in the latest sign that underscores the country’s gloomy demographic situation with chronically low birth rates.16 The number of
15. Statistics Korea (2021). Statistics Korea (kostat.go.kr)
16. Statistics Korea (2022). http://kostat.go.kr/portal/korea/kor_nw/1/1/index.board?bmode
=read&aSeq=416487
deaths was 317,800, under which the annual population decline came to an all-time high of 57,300 as deaths continued outnumbering births.
According to statistics unveiled by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, the nation’s population recorded 51.63 million at the end of 2021, a similar level posted in July 2016, compared with 51.82 million at the end of 2020.
The same data showed that the yearly tally for marriages also fell sharply from 302,828 in 2015 to 213,502 in 2020 and 182,509 in 2021, under 200,000 for the first time in history amid steady declines for the last six years.
The number of people getting married shrank by 9.4 percent to 14,753 in January 2022, compared with a 10.7 percent drop in December 2021.
According to the data Statistics Korea disclosed on March 23, 2022, a total of 24,598 babies were born in January of the year, down 1.2 percent from a year earlier and the lowest tally for the month.17 January 2022 also marked the 74th consecutive month of year-on-year decline. The number of deaths, meanwhile, rose for the 11th straight month in January.
The number of deaths came to 29,686 in the month, up 9 percent from a year earlier. The year-on-year growth rate was down from a 17.7 percent surge in December. Accordingly, the country’s population decreased by 5,088 in January, marking the 27th consecutive month of decline.
At the same time, the ROK has been gradually morphing into an aging society. In 2018, the country officially became an aging society as the proportion of elderly, or senior citizens aged 65 and older, exceeded 14 percent. The number rose to 8.21 million as of November 2020, accounting for 16.4 percent of the total population. The elderly people made up 8.53 million or 16.5 percent in 2021, highlighting concerns that the fast-aging demographic transition could pose a drag on the country’s economy. The ROK is expected to become a super-aged society in 2025, in which the
17. 보도자료 전체 | 통계청 (kostat.go.kr)
proportion of the elderly will account for 20 percent of the whole population.
Policymakers warn the country may face an “age quake” starting in 2030 with 12.98 million senior citizens, an earthquake-like demographic shock from a fall in population and aging.
3. Negative Economic Growth Projected
The ROK’s fertility rate fell to half of the worldwide average while its suicide rate is at the top, double the average rate of the OECD members.
As these two rankings have almost become fixtures, the burden of increased payrolls in the public sector will be transferred to younger generations.
Those in their 20s and 30s suffer job losses as the increase in the total number of waged jobs is at a slowing pace.
Decreases in population will result in reduced consumption and weakening economic vitality. Most worrisome is that the nation’s working population, aged between 15 and 64, will likely decrease by 20 million within 50 years. The warning from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is that the ROK’s potential growth in GDP per capita will decline to 0.8 percent during the 2030–60 period, owing mainly to the low birth rates and population decline.
The nation’s working population amounted to 72.1 percent in 2020, the highest among the 38 OECD member states. Yet, it is estimated to drop to the lowest 46.1 percent in 2070. Senior citizens will account for 46.4 percent in 2070, which means 100 working people will have to care for 117, again the highest in the OECD. The changing labor market affected by the nation’s declining birth rates and aging is likely to further drag down the growth potential. Population decreases adversely affect the country’s labor supply, dampen domestic demand, and discourage
investments while throwing the economy into a slump.
According to the data Statistics Korea released on December 15, 2021, the economically active population marked about 28,528,000 in November of the year. The labor force participation rate stood at 63.1 percent. The number of employed persons totaled 27,795,000. The employment to population ratio recorded 61.5 percent. The number of unemployed persons totaled 734,000. The unemployment rate marked 2.6 percent. The economically inactive population totaled 16,653,000.18
The ROK’s potential growth rate―possible rate an economy can grow without triggering inflation―per working-age population fell to 2.1 percent in the 2010s from 3.8 percent in the 2000s, 5.3 percent in the 1990s, and 7.6 percent in the 1980s, according to the 2020 Annual Report from the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI), the research arm of the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI).19 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated the ROK’s potential growth rate at 2.5 percent in the 2020s and 2 percent in the 2030s. The Hyundai Research Institute (HRI) is more pessimistic while predicting that the rate will drop to 1.9 percent between 2026 and 2030 after posting 2.1 percent between 2021 and 2025.20
On February 3, 2022, the Ministry of Employment and Labor disclosed prospects for mid-and-long-term supply and demand of workforce, which forecast that the increase in labor supply would diminish by about 1/3 or 3,202,000 people between 2020 and 2030 compared with that of the last ten years. The economically active people are expected to peak in 2024, and the employed to culminate at 27,995,000 in 2025.
18. Statistics Korea (kostat.go.kr)
19. 시장경제연구백서 - 한국경제연구원 (keri.org) 2020.pdf 20. 지역 인구 현황과 시사점 (hri.co.kr)
4. Schools, Universities, and Cities to Disappear
Population extinction is calculated by dividing the number of fertile women in a population aged 20–39 by that over the age of 65. If the number is between 0.2 and 0.5, the local population is considered at risk of extinction. When the number is below 0.2, the population is categorized as at high risk of extinction. Overall, the population in the ROK is expected to plummet from 51.36 million in 2027 to 36.89 million in 2067, and 15.10 million in 2117.
As the birth rate started dipping severely in the early 2000s, it is not surprising that the number of school-age children began dropping sharply in the late 2000s, and then more recent years see fewer and fewer students in college. The crisis of universities is not limited to academia but it has effects on the local and national economy. In 2021, 162 four-year universities nationwide failed to meet their student quotas and extended enrollment periods in an attempt to fill 26,129 vacancies―2.7 times higher than the previous year and the largest number in 16 years. The average acceptance rate for universities outside of Seoul plunged to 2.7:1 in 2021, the first time it has fallen below 3:1.
According to the “Low Fertility Rate and Aging Society Audit” released by the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) on August 13, 2021, 96.5 percent of South Korean cities and districts will likely be extinct by 2117.21 Seoul is expected to retain only 2.62 million inhabitants in that year, a whopping 73 percent decrease from its current population. In Seoul, two or three districts have the risk of extinction by 2047. By 2067, 15 districts will face a high risk of extinction, and by 2117, only four districts will
21. Board of Audit and Inspection (2021). 분야별 감사결과 | 감사결과 | 감사원(THE BOARD OF AUDIT AND INSPECTION OF KOREA) (bai.go.kr) 공개문_전문.pdf
likely remain.
All other parts than the greater capital area are considered to be at high risk of extinction by 2117 except only one district each in Busan, Gwangju, and Daejeon. Only some centers of research, development, industry, work, and education that can attract young people are foreseen to survive the centennial. Population declines in rural areas are expected to be even steeper.
While this audit report seemed already shocking, the actual status could be far worse because the results were drawn from relatively conservative estimates. In sum, the shrinking and aging population will have severely detrimental impacts on social, political, and economic purviews, but the current perception of the problem is still naïve. The BAI confirmed this gloomy prospect in its later audit report on November 23, 2021.22
5. GNI per Capita and Population
The ROK joined the OECD in 1996 and its Development Assistance Committee (DAC) in 2009. In only six years from 2012 when it became the seventh member nation in the so-called 20/50 Club with over 20 thousand U.S. dollars of gross national income (GNI) per capita and more than 50 million of population, the ROK came to belong to the 30/50 Club.
The IMF has predicted that it would become a member of the 40/50 Club before 2025. In 2020, the organization selected the ROK as one of the ten advanced nations of the world. The United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) moved the status of the ROK from a developing nation to a developed one on July 2, 2021. All these are
22. Board of Audit and Inspection (2021). Mid-and Long-Term Fiscal Management II.
Audit Reports | Audit Activities | BAI (The Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea)
delightful news heralding the apex of the ROK’s national power, but they also mean at the same time that there are only downward roads ahead.
The fact that the ROK is now in the golden age is not limited to its economic and defense powers. Its cultural influence that continues to be showcased by Psy, BTS, Parasites, Minari, Squid Game, Hellbound, and All of Us Are Dead has already proved in effect a cultural powerhouse that Baekbeom Kim Koo dreamt of under the Japanese colonial rule. This simultaneously portends an apprehension that perhaps a global status of the ROK in the next century may be dwarfed to that of the countries like Singapore, for example, where the whole population is highly motivated and well-disciplined socially, but the unique ethnic mirth and entertaining talents would be so diluted that the nation’s images may be portrayed rather dry and sullen than full of charming tastes and flavors in life.
Even if the current trend allows the ROK population to shrink by a conservative average of only 8,150 annually, it will become below 50 million in 2041 at the latest. This will not simply affect the ROK’s economic and socio-cultural status but also defense capability to a serious degree. As Eberstadt states, the number of young men aged 15–24, the group from which military manpower is typically drawn, is projected to fall by almost 40 percent in the ROK.23
All these portend that the ROK could be eliminated from the 40/50 Club soon after 2040. It means that the ROK’s heyday is for 23 years from 2018–40 when it is a member of the 30/50 or 40/50 Club. Should Korea be unified anytime soon by any chance, it would still be out of the 30/50 Club with GNI per capita far below US$30,000. With its population of 77 million then, it would take decades to reenter the 40/50 Club. In addition, North Korea is suffering from low birth rates as well. Therefore,
23. Eberstadt, N. (2019). Ibid.
future generations will record in history that the period in which the ROK would have attended the G7 meetings as a member of the 30/50 or 40/50 Club was the sole time when its national power culminated.
III. No Remedies?
1. An Internal Issue Affecting Foreign Relations
As mentioned in Chapter I, the shrinking population is prima facie an internal issue that needs to be addressed by domestic policies, strategies, and measures. Nevertheless, this trend forecasts far-reaching consequences in terms of national security, prestige, and identity, which in turn limit
As mentioned in Chapter I, the shrinking population is prima facie an internal issue that needs to be addressed by domestic policies, strategies, and measures. Nevertheless, this trend forecasts far-reaching consequences in terms of national security, prestige, and identity, which in turn limit