V. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
5.1 ASEAN agriculture and non-agriculture trade with the top partners
Over the course of the past 40 years, the net flow of agricultural commodities, between developed and developing countries has reversed direction.
In the early 1960s, developing countries had an overall agricultural trade surplus of almost US$ 7 billion per year. By the end of the 1980s, however, this surplus had disappeared. During most of the 1990s and early 2000s, developing countries were net importers of agricultural products. FAO has projected that this agricultural trade deficit is likely to widen markedly. The change has been even more pronounced for the LDCs, which over the same period have changed from being net exporters to
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significant net importers of agricultural commodities. By the end of the 1990s, imports by the LDCs were more than double their exports (FAO,2004).
Table 4 GDP per capita at current market prices in US$, 2000-2008
No. Country GDP per capita at current market prices in US$
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1 Brunei Darussalam
18,469 16,839 17,158 18,708 21,863 25,744 29,922 31,582 35,623 2 Cambodia 288 295 309 349 392 453 515 601 756 3 Indonesia 807 775 932 1,100 1,105 1,295 1,636 1,909 2,237 4 Lao PDR 375 365 369 425 487 539 645 736 918 5 Malaysia 3,844 3,665 3,884 4,152 4,877 5,281 5,902 6,866 7,992 6 Myanmar 192 136 136 221 191 198 233 333 465 7 Philippines 978 916 956 971 1,039 1,158 1,351 1,658 1,844 8 Singapore 23,007 20,670 21,098 11,066 25,791 27,343 30,053 36,440 38,046 9 Thailand 1,976 1,840 2,001 2,233 2,501 2,707 3,151 3,726 4,116 10 Viet Nam 403 415 440 489 555 637 725 833 1,053 ASEAN 1,159 1,091 1,195 1,327 1,439 1,606 1,895 2,249 2,582
Source: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2008
The economic performance of individual developing countries played an important part in determining how quickly they increased their food imports. Countries that recorded strong overall economic growth, as measured by per capita GDP, increased food imports more quickly.
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ASEAN is a net exporting region for agricultural trade. However due to increasing demand, rising per capita income (Table- 4) and consumers’ preference for different kinds of commodity varieties and value-added food product, most of its agricultural imports and some non-agriculture imports were large and growing during these periods until the total import amount 257,943 million US$ from the world in 2005-2009 (Table-5). Organic chemicals (HS-29) are the largest imported item into the ASEAN market, followed by miscellaneous chemical products (HS-38) and Cereals (HS-10) in the distant third. Cotton (HS-52) and
“residues and waste from the food industries; prepared animal fodder” (HS-23) are respectively fourth and fifth largest agricultural import items in terms of value during 1990-2009.
Table 5 ASEAN agriculture and non-agriculture import values
HS code
ASEAN agriculture and non-agriculture import values
1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 1990-2009
mil US$ share% mil US$ share% mil US$ share% mil US$ share% mil US$ share%
29 38,985 22 49,708 23 43,805 24 62,467 24 194,965 23 38 21,058 12 20,246 9 20,330 11 28,609 11 90,243 11 10 14,227 8 25,137 12 12,603 7 17,938 7 69,907 8 52 22,404 12 19,426 9 13,572 7 12,549 5 67,951 8 23 8,171 5 10,599 5 9,902 5 15,448 6 44,120 5 04 6,268 3 8,781 4 8,946 5 12,163 5 36,157 4 33 5,607 3 7,704 4 8,878 5 13,838 5 36,027 4 24 6,099 3 7,959 4 6,669 4 5,779 2 26,506 3
87 Source: Author’s calculation based on data from United Nations Statistics Division, Commodity Trade Database; COMTRADE, accessed in October 2011
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Different countries may have food import dependence for quite different reasons. For many developing countries, their agriculture sectors, despite relatively abundant natural resources, are underdeveloped and unable to satisfy domestic demand for food. Many such countries, especially those at earlier stages of agricultural development, consider it necessary to maintain tariffs and other forms of border protection, which raise domestic agricultural prices and provide incentives for agricultural development.
Table 6 ASEAN countrywide agriculture and non-agriculture import values
No. ASEAN countries million US$
(1990-2009)
percentage
1 Indonesia 224,590 26.73
2 Singapore 210,581 25.06
3 Thailand 150,058 17.86
4 Malaysia 147,727 17.58
5 Philippines 63,171 7.52
6 Viet Nam 38,130 4.54
7 Brunei Darussalam 3,243 0.39
8 Cambodia 2,452 0.29
9 Myanmar 218 0.03
10 Lao PDR 0 0
Grand Total 840,171 100
Source: Author’s calculation based on data from United Nations Statistics Division, Commodity Trade Database; COMTRADE, accessed in October 2011
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Among the ASEAN countries, Indonesia has imported the highest share percent about 27% and Singapore was the second largest about 25% of total ASEAN import values (1990-2009) (Table-6). Other countries were Thailand (18%), Malaysia (18%), Philippines (8%), Viet Nam (5%), Brunei Darussalam (0.4%), Cambodia (0.3%) and Myanmar (only 0.03%). There was no import from Lao PDR.
The trend of ASEAN top agriculture and non-agriculture import values from the world is presented in Figure-2. Among those products, most products show increasing trend except cereals (HS-10) and cotton (HS-52). In contrary, cereals (HS-10) and cotton (HS-52) were the third (69,907 million US$) and fourth (67,951 million US$) largest import items of ASEAN. While the share of cereal imports has declined, both developed and developing countries are importing greater quantities of higher-value and processed foods, particularly edible oils, livestock products and fruits and vegetables.
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Figure 2 Trend of ASEAN agriculture and non-agriculture import from the world (million US$)
According to both (1990-2009) total import value and (2008-2009) average import value to ASEAN market, USA, China and Australia were first, second and third largest trade partners of ASEAN respectively (Table-7). India became the fourth exporting country to ASEAN market in (2008-2009) average value. Korea is seven largest trading partner of ASEAN in (1990-2009) total value. Brazil and Argentina became seventh and eighth largest trading partner of ASEAN.
HS-29
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Source: Author’s calculation based on data from United Nations Statistics Division, Commodity Trade Database; COMTRADE, accessed in October 2011
The trends of the ASEAN top agriculture and non-agriculture import values from the top exporters are shown in Figure-3. China, India and Brazil show increasing trend from 2001 to 2008 while U. S., Japan and Australia show deeply decreasing trend since 1996.
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Figure 3 Trend of ASEAN agriculture and non-agriculture import from top trading partners (million US$)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
million US $
USA
China
Australia
Japan
India
France
Brazil
Argentina
Korea
Germany
New ZeaLand
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Figure 4 ASEAN’s total import share by major exporters during 1990 to 2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
each country share % in ASEAN total import from the world
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
France
India
Japan
Korea
USA
Rest of world
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Figure 5 Changes in exporters' share% in ASEAN market
In Figure-5, the vertical axis represents the changes in exporters’ share percentage during the 1990-2009, while the horizontal axis denotes the average annual growth rate of exports in the same period for all major exporters to ASEAN market. The radius of each colored circle represents respective country’s export volume (2008-2009 average value), i.e., the larger the circle for a country, the larger
USA(6,804)
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is its export volume to ASEAN. If a country is in the first quadrant, it means that its export has grown on average during 1990-2009 and market share has also increased.
On the other hand, if the country is occupied in the third quadrant, its export growth has been negative along with a fall in market shares. China (5,559 million US$), India (2,814 million US$), Brazil (2,007 million US$), and Argentina (1,515 million US$), were found in the first quadrant with large export value amount. So their exports have grown on average during 1990-2009 and market share has also increased.
Although there are four countries in the first quadrant, the researcher has chosen China and India for reference countries because China and India are second and fourth largest partners according to 2008-2009 average value and they are also ASEAN FTA member countries. Since USA, Australia, Germany and Korea export growth has been positive but along with a fall market shares, they occupied in fourth quadrant of the figure. Although Korea occupies in the fourth quadrant, Korea, which is also FTA member, has been selected as a reference country to compare with Japan which occupies in third quadrant and they also have very similar export structure in ASEAN import market. Only one county which was found in third quadrant was Japan. It means that Japan’s export growth has been negative along with a fall in market shares.
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