A. Outlook on global oil supply and demand
In the November 2011 issue of the “Oil Market Report”, IEA forecasted that global oil demand will be roughly 89.2 million b/d, a year-on-year rise of around 900 thousand b/d, in 2011 and that it will be approximately 90.5 million b/d, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 million b/d, in 2012.
Forecasted global oil demand was decreased 70 thousand b/d (Year 2011) and 20 thousand b/d (Year 2012) from the previous month’s forecasts owing to increased uncertainty over the global economy and continued high oil prices.
Non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGL supply are forecast to be around 52.8 million b/d and 5.9 million b/d (a year-on-year rise of 100 thousand b/d and 600 thousand b/d), respectively, in 2011 and around 53.8 million b/d and 6.3 million b/d, respectively, in 2012.
Demand for OPEC oil is forecast to be around 30.5 million to 30.6 million b/d.
Notes: Asia* refers to Asian developing countries excluding China; e refers to forecasts.
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, November issue.
Outlook on the international energy market
1
(Unit: Million b/d)
Category 2011
2010 2012e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual
OECD 46.2 46.3 44.5 45.9 46.4 45.8 46.1 44.4 45.6 46.0 45.5
North America 23.8 23.8 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.1 23.5 23.5 23.4
Europe 14.6 14.2 14.1 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.0 13.9 14.6 14.5 14.3
Asia Pacific 7.8 8.3 7.1 7.7 8.3 7.9 8.6 7.4 7.5 8.1 7.9
Non OECD 42.1 42.6 43.4 43.7 43.8 43.4 44.1 45.0 45.3 45.3 44.9
China 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.8 9.5 9.9 10.1 9.9 10.2 10.0
Asia* 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.5 10.9 10.7 11.0 11.1 10.8 11.2 11.0
World 88.3 88.9 87.9 89.6 90.2 89.2 90.2 89.4 90.9 91.4 90.5
<TableⅢ-1> IEA’s global oil consumptions and forecasts
B. International oil price outlook
Major international organizations forecast that oil prices will record a year-on-year rise of 35.9% to reach $106.03 (Dubai oil) per barrel in 2011, and a year-on-year drop of 1.4% to stand at $104.50 per barrel in 2012.
Most organizations forecast that the average oil price in 2012 will drop from the 2011 level. However, EIA expects WTI’s average oil price to slightly go up and post $98.00 per barrel in 2012.
- EIA’s outlook on oil prices was raised in consideration of political turmoil in oil- producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa. However, risks that would lead to a decline in oil demand exist, such as a slowdown in global economic recovery and the European financial crisis.
Notes: CGES: Center for Global Energy Studies (London) CERA: Cambridge Energy Research Associates EIA: US Energy Information Administration PIRA: PIRA Energy Group
C. Outlook on the international natural gas market
International natural gas demand is forecast to record a year-on-year rise of 5.1% in 2012
(Unit: $/Bbl)
Category 2011
2010 2012e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual CGES Brent(D) 79.90 106.00 118.00 114.40 109.00 111.90 104.40 98.30 92.00 - 96.40 Dubai 78.03 100.48 110.71 107.09 105.86 106.03 103.98 104.63 103.95 105.44 104.50 CERA Brent(D) 79.46 104.96 117.35 113.45 109.03 111.20 107.25 107.63 108.00 108.38 107.81 WTI 79.38 93.97 102.43 89.70 91.20 94.32 87.25 85.63 84.00 88.38 86.31 EIA WTI 79.40 93.50 102.22 89.72 93.82 94.82 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 PIRA Brent 79.45 104.95 117.35 113.45 109.60 111.35 109.35 107.85 106.65 112.40 109.05 WTI 79.40 93.95 102.45 89.70 94.25 95.10 101.10 103.70 103.00 107.35 103.80
<TableⅢ-2> Oil price outlook by major overseas organizations in September
to reach 3,555.2 billion m3as a result of efforts made by countries all across the globe to cut down CO2emissions and a rise in LNG demand in Asia.
A rise in natural gas consumption is expected in tandem with efforts made by governments throughout Europe to cut down CO2 emissions and the movement to replace nuclear power generation with natural gas. However, the possibility of an increase in prices triggered by reduced supply and the economic downturn in the euro zone will likely limit a rise in consumption.
Japan made known its intention to make spot purchase of LNG. The country is expected to substantially increase natural gas consumption in 2012 to replace the damaged nuclear power plants. China and Korea are also expected to witness a considerable rise in natural gas consumption.
Notes: 1) Values in parentheses indicate the year-on-year growth rate (%); e refers to forecasts.
2) Australasia: A region of Oceania comprising Australia, New Zealand, the island of New Guinea, and neighboring islands in the Pacific Ocean.
Source: EIU, World commodity forecasts: Industrial raw materials, January 2012
(Unit: Billion m3)
Category 2011e 2012e
North America 855.3 888.7
(3.3) (3.9)
East Europe / 674.2 698.0
Commonwealth of Independent States (3.6) (3.5)
West Europe 573.5 581.0
(-2.5) (1.3)
Asia/Australasia 639.1 712.2
(11.8) (11.4)
Middle East 386.2 410.1
(5.5) (6.2)
Latin America 140.5 146.8
(4.0) (4.5)
Africa 113.4 118.4
(4.3) (4.4)
Worldwide 3,382.2 3,555.2
(4.1) (5.1)
<TableⅢ-3> International natural gas consumption and outlook
In 2012, international natural gas production is forecast to stand at 3,530 billion m3, a year-on-year rise of 4.6%, attributable to increased production of natural gas in North America, the Middle East, and Africa.
Most of the natural gas produced in the Middle East will be from South Pars in Qatar and North Dome in Iran. Russia plans to increase production by developing Yamal, which holds Russia’s biggest natural gas reserves.
The US plans to increase natural gas production and reduce imports while substantially increasing exports to Korea, Japan, India, Brazil, and other countries.
Russia’s Sakhalin, Indonesia’s Tangguh, and Yemen are emerging as new natural gas exporting areas. Australia is also expanding facilities to increase exports.
Notes: 1) Values in parentheses indicate the year-on-year growth rate (%); e refers to forecasts.
2) Australasia: A region of Oceania comprising Australia, New Zealand, the island of New Guinea, and neighboring islands in the Pacific Ocean.
Source: EIU, World commodity forecasts: Industrial raw materials, January 2012.
(Unit: Billion m3)
Category 2011e 2012e
North America 871.1 910.3
(5.4) (4.5)
East Europe / 844.8 882.8
Commonwealth of Independent States (4.1) (4.5)
West Europe 291.5 293.4
(-4.5) (0.7)
Asia/Australasia 489.5 515.5
(4.7) (5.3)
Middle East 504.2 530.4
(9.5) (5.2)
Africa 219.0 230.4
(3.2) (5.2)
Latin America 156.2 167.3
(5.0) (7.1)
Worldwide 3,376.2 3,530.0
(4.5) (4.6)
<TableⅢ-4> International natural gas production and outlook
In 2012, the LNG price in Japan is forecast to record US$ 16.7/mBtu in the first quarter and then slightly go down. However, the annual average price will likely go up to US$
15.98/mBtu, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, owing to demand that is increasing at a faster pace than production.
The natural gas price (Henry hub) in the US, which is relatively less influenced by international circumstances, is forecast to continually rise in 2012 and reach US$
4.63/mBtu, an annual increase of 11.0%.
The natural gas price in Europe in 2012 is forecast to reach US$ 10.64/mBtu, a 2.2% rise from the previous year. It will be placed under pressure to go up by strong natural gas demand in Asia.
Notes: 1) Values in parentheses indicate the year-on-year growth rate (%); e refers to forecasts.
2) The natural gas price in the US is based on the Henry hub. The price in Europe (excluding the UK) is the import border price. The price in Japan is the LNG import price.
Source: EIU, World commodity forecasts: Industrial raw materials, January 2012
(Unit: US $/mBtu)
Category 2011 2012e
Annual 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
US 4.17 4.30 4.45 4.65 5.10 4.63
(-5.0) (2.9) (1.8) (12.9) (27.5) (11.0)
Europe 10.41 10.70 10.45 10.65 10.75 10.64
(25.6) (13.2) (1.4) (-2.1) (-2.3) (2.2)
Japan 14.68 16.70 16.00 15.50 15.70 15.98
(35.3) (39.3) (16.7) (-5.3) (-5.7) (8.8)
<TableⅢ-5> Outlook on international natural gas prices
Notes: The natural gas price in the US is based on the Henry hub. The price in Europe (excluding the UK) is the import border price. The price in Japan is the LNG import price.
Source: EIU, World commodity forecasts: Industrial raw materials, January 2012
D. Outlook on the international coal market
Coal demand in China and India, which recently led a rise in global coal demand, is expected to continually go up in 2012.
Coal demand in China and India is expected to record continued high growth of around 6% and 8%, respectively, attributable to economic growth and the resulting power generation demand.
Coal demand is forecast to remain at the current level in the US and European countries as a result of strengthened environmental regulations. Demand for coal-based power generation in Germany and Japan is forecast to slightly go up, influenced by Japan’s nuclear energy crisis.
Australia is planning the adoption of the carbon tax in July 2012, but its effect on coal demand is forecast to be limited.
[FigureⅢ-1] Outlook on international natural gas prices
Notes: Values in parentheses refer to the rate of increase from the previous year; e refers to forecasts.
Source: EIU, World commodity forecasts: Industrial raw materials, January 2012.
Coal demand is expected to somewhat slow down in 2012. Accordingly, the rate of increase in coal production will likely slow down by a small margin.
Coal production will likely indicate year-on-year growth of between 4% and 5%.
China and Indonesia will lead increased production in 2012 and are expected to account for more than 53% of global coal production.
(Unit: Million ton)
Category 2010 2011e 2012e
China 3,387 3,658 3,896
(7.5) (8.0) (6.5)
US 951 937 904
(4.7) (-1.5) (-3.5)
EU 718 754 746
(-0.1) (5.0) (-1.1)
India 689 748 810
(10.8) (8.6) (8.3)
Russia 206 209 213
(2.0) (1.5) (1.9)
Japan 188 186 193
(13.9) (-1.1) (3.8)
Global total 7,289 7,681 7,995
(6.0) (5.4) (4.1)
<TableⅢ-6> Outlook on global coal consumption
Notes: Values in parentheses refer to the year-on-year growth rate; e refers to forecasts.
Source: EIU, World commodity forecasts: Industrial raw materials, January 2012
International coal prices are expected to slightly decline in 2012 as a result of the global economic downturn. However, they will likely remain high.
Notes: 1) Values in parentheses refer to year-on-year growth.
2) Coal prices are those of Australian thermal coal.
Source: EIU, World commodity forecasts: Industrial raw materials, January 2012.
(Unit: Million ton)
Category 2010 2011e 2012e
China 3,321 3,687 3,945
(8.9) (11.0) (7.0)
US 985 980 950
(1.2) (-0.5) (-3.1)
India 569 557 574
(2.5) (-2.1) (3.1)
Australia 407 415 432
(2.0) (2.0) (4.1)
Russia 311 322 335
(4.7) (3.5) (4.0)
Indonesia 359 398 426
(18.9) (10.9) (7.0)
Global total 7,401 7,861 8,207
(6.2) (6.2) (4.4)
<TableⅢ-7> Outlook on global coal production
(Unit: US $/ton)
Category 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
2010 95.19 99.49 93.55 107.63 98.97
(32.3) (49.7) (31.2) (38.6) (37.8)
2011 128.99 120.00 120.61 115.00 121.15
(35.5) (20.6) (28.9) (6.8) (22.4)
2012 110 107 105 105 106.75
(-14.7) (-10.8) (-12.9) (-8.7) (-11.9)
<TableⅢ-8> Trends in international coal prices and outlook
A. Outlook on the domestic economy26)
Economic growth rate
The Korean economy is expected to record annual growth of 3.7% in 2012, influenced by the global economic downturn and uncertainty.
- In the first half of the year, the economy will likely post a growth rate that is less than 1% from the previous term, attributable to economic stagnancy and uncertainty in advanced countries.
- When detailed solutions for the European financial crisis are devised, the Korean economy will likely record its potential growth rate in the second half of the year.
Private consumption
Private consumption in 2012 is expected to rise 3.1% as a result of improvements in real purchasing power resulting from such factors as stable oil prices.
- Real purchasing power is expected to improve as a result of a slowdown in the upward trend in prices, against the backdrop of continued employment recovery.
- Trade conditions will likely be similar to conditions witnessed in 2011 owing to a slowdown in the upward trend in raw material prices, resulting in a reduced gap between the rate of increase in the net income (Gross National Income) and growth rate.
Investments
Construction investments are forecast to be less sluggish, especially for building construction. The rate of increase in facility investments is forecast to go down as a result of lack of investors’ confidence triggered by external uncertainty.
Domestic economic outlook and outlook assumptions
2
26) The information is based on the 「Economic Outlook for 2012」(December 2011) issued by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance.
Facility investments are forecast to record annual growth of 3.3%, attributable to worsened investment conditions, including a slowdown in the level of increase in exports and a downward trend in corporate profitability.
- There will likely be a lack of investors’ confidence among companies. For example, the forecasted Business Survey Index (BSI) on facility investments in the manufacturing industry is less than the base value (100).
- The level of increase in leading indicators will likely slow down, including orders for machinery, machinery imports, and facility investment adjustment pressure.
Construction investments are expected to turn around from the downward trend of the previous year to post an annual increase of 2.9% in 2012.
- Housing construction is forecast to recover from its recent slump as a result of improvements in the housing market, including a decrease in unsold houses, a rise in the number of apartments sold, and a rise in the expected number of housing units available for move-in.
- In terms of construction of buildings for non-residential use, relatively favorable investment conditions are expected as a result of a drop in vacancies and relocation of public institutions. However, a slowdown in economic recovery will likely function as a constraint.
- In the area of civil engineering and construction, sluggishness will likely continue as a result of a reduction in the SOC budget, triggered by the completion of large national projects, such as the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project.
Notes: p refers to preliminary figures; e refers to forecasts.
Source: Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Economic Outlook for 2012, December 12, 2011
Exports, imports, and current account
In 2012, exports (based on customs clearance) are expected to record an annual increase of 7.4% owing to an economic slowdown in advanced countries and a slowdown in the level of increase in the global trade volume.
- Overall export conditions are expected to deteriorate as a result of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown in advanced countries.
- A low increase rate is expected in the first half of the year, but a two-digit increase rate is likely to be recorded in the second half of the year and onwards once there is less external uncertainty.
In 2012, imports are forecast to post an annual 8.4% increase owing to reduced investment demand and a drop in the unit price of imports.
- Imports of raw materials and subsidiary materials for exports account for 40% of total imports. For this reason, import demand slows down when exports slow down.
(Year-on-year comparison, %, 100 million dollars)
Category 2010 2011 2012e
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p Annual (e)
GDP 6.2 4.2 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.7
Private consumption 4.1 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.5 3.1
Facility investment 25.0 11.7 7.5 1.0 4.3 3.3
Construction investment -1.4 -11.9 -6.8 -4.6 -5.4 2.9
Current account 294 26 55 69 250 160
Goods account balance 401 58 77 72 305 250
- Exports (customs clearance) 28.3 29.6 18.7 21.4 19.2 7.4
- Imports (customs clearance) 31.6 26.1 27.2 27.7 23.2 8.4
Service balance, primary income
-107 -32 -22 -3 -55 -90
balance, secondary income balance
Consumer price 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.2
<TableⅢ-9> Economic outlook for 2011 and 2012
- The unit price of imports, which considerably rose in 2011, is expected to slightly decline in tandem with a slowdown in the level of increase in international raw material prices.
The current account surplus is expected to be a mere 16 billion dollars annually, attributable to a reduction in the goods account surplus and a rise in the service account deficit.
Consumer price
The rate of increase in consumer prices is forecast to remain somewhat high in the first half of the year. The rate of increase will likely steadily decrease in the second half of the year and onwards as a result of base effects.
- Consumer price pressure on the supply side will likely decrease as a result of stable supply of agricultural products and a slowdown in the level of increase in international raw material prices. Pressure on the demand side is expected to steadily decrease as a result of the economic slowdown.
Comparison among economic forecasts made by major organizations
According to economic outlook data released by the government and major organizations in consideration of recent changes in domestic and overseas economic conditions, Korea’s economic growth rate is expected to stand at 3.8% in 2011 and in the mid- to high 3% range in 2012.
- Government-run organizations, such as the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Bank of Korea, and KDI forecast that the economic growth rate in 2012 will be 3.7 to 3.8%.
Private organizations, such as the LG Economic Research Institute, expect the economic growth rate to be in the mid 3% range.
The rate of increase in consumer prices is expected to slow down from approximately 4% in 2011 to the low 3% range in 2012.
The current account surplus in 2012 is expected to go down from the previous year to record around 15 billion dollars.
Source: Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Economic Outlook for 2012, December 12, 2011 Korea Development Institute, KDI Economic Outlook (Second half of 2011), November 2011 The Bank of Korea, Economic Outlook for 2012, December 9, 2011
LG Economic Research Institute, Domestic Economic Outlook for 2012, LG Business Insight, December 21, 2011 Samsung Economic Research Institute, Outlook on Global Economy and Korean Economy for 2012, SERI Economic Outlook, December 1, 2011
B. Outlook assumptions
The economic growth rate was set at 3.8% for 2011 and 3.7% for 2012 for the outlook on energy demand.
Forecasts made by government agencies (Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Bank of Korea) that most recently announced an economic outlook were reflected.
(Unit: %)
Category
Samsung Economic Research Institute Ministry of
Strategy and Finance
KDI Bank of
Korea
LG Economic Research
Institute
2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012
GDP growth rate 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.4 4.0 3.6
Private consumption 2.5 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.5
Construction investments -5.4 2.9 -5.6 2.8 -5.3 2.8 -4.0 3.4 -5.1 2.6
Facility investments 4.3 3.3 5.5 4.3 4.5 4.2 3.7 2.3 5.4 4.5
Consumer prices 4.0 3.2 4.4 3.4 4.0 3.3 4.0 3.2 4.4 3.4
Current account
250 160 213 151 272 130 248 163 224 125
(100 million dollars)
Unemployment rate - - 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4
<TableⅢ-10> Economic outlook by major organizations in Korea
Notes: p refers to tentative figures and e refers to forecasts.
Average temperature information for the last 20 years was used for temperature variables used in the forecasts such as CDD (Cooling Degree Days) and HDD (Heating Degree Days).
Notes: 1) CDD (HDD) refers to the difference between the daily average temperature and standard temperature if the daily average temperature is higher (lower) than the standard temperature (18℃). Monthly CDD/HDD is the sum of daily degree days in the month.
2) Temperature variables for September through December 2011 were omitted.
In 2011, the climate was different from the average year, such as the cold wave in January and low temperatures in the summer in July and August. It is assumed, however, that average year temperatures will be maintained during the forecast period.
Category
2012 2011
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4e Annual
(e)
First half (e)
Second half (e)
Annual (e)
Economic growth rate (%) 4.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.9 3.7
<TableⅢ-11> Economic growth rate assumptions
Category 2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Average
-2.0 1.0 5.9 12.5 18.0 22.4 25.1 25.7 21.5 14.9 7.7 0.7 temperature
CDD 0 0 0 4 33 133 219 239 110 8 0 0
HDD 621 482 376 168 34 2 0 0 5 102 312 541
<TableⅢ-12> Assumptions on temperature variables
[FigureⅢ-2] CDD and HDD and assumptions for outlook
Primary energy demand is expected to rise 3.3% in 2011 and 3.0% in 2012.
Primary energy demand from 2011 to 2012 is expected to become stabilized due to a slowdown in the nation’s economic growth.
* Economic growth rate assumption: (Year 2010) 6.2% →(Year 2011) 3.8% →(Year 2012) 3.7%
Notes: Values in parentheses refer to the year-on-year growth rate (%); p refers to tentative figures; e refers to forecasts.
Outlook on primary energy demand
3
Category 2011 2012
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4e Annual (e) First half of
the year (e) Second half
of the year (e) Annual (e)
30.4 28.8 32.2 31.5 122.9 60.8 64.6 125.4
(-0.8) (3.1) (6.4) (3.3) (3.0) (2.7) (1.4) (2.0)
24.2 22.3 25.8 25.0 97.3 47.4 51.0 98.4
(3.7) (2.6) (5.6) (2.7) (3.7) (2.1) (0.4) (1.2)
205.0 181.5 199.3 211.8 797.7 392.9 410.5 803.5
(3.1) (-6.2) (4.0) (0.7) (0.4) (1.7) (-0.2) (0.7)
116.3 97.7 108.7 122.2 444.8 214.9 225.8 440.7
(-1.2) (-12.3) (-0.1) (-2.1) (-3.8) (0.4) (-2.2) (-0.9)
12.2 7.3 6.3 10.6 36.4 20.2 18.0 38.2
(11.3) (9.1) (10.3) (9.4) (10.1) (3.4) (6.7) (5.0)
1.6 1.9 3.4 1.4 8.2 3.6 4.6 8.2
(27.2) (21.4) (44.5) (3.2) (27.0) (4.8) (-2.9) (0.3)
37.5 38.6 38.2 40.1 154.4 82.2 86.4 168.6
(4.0) (5.8) (1.7) (4.1) (3.9) (8.0) (10.3) (9.2)
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 6.2 3.3 3.4 6.7
(2.9) (0.8) (-3.9) (11.0) (2.7) (7.1) (6.7) (6.9)
72.2 61.9 65.1 72.3 271.4 138.3 141.3 279.6
(3.8) (0.5) (5.3) (3.7) (3.3) (3.2) (2.9) (3.0)
56.4 46.6 49.0 56.2 208.3 106.2 108.2 214.4
(4.6) (-0.3) (4.0) (3.3) (2.9) (3.1) (2.8) (2.9)
<TableⅢ-13> Outlook on primary energy demand
Coal (Million ton)
-Excluding coking coal
Oil (Million bbl) -Excluding naphtha
LNG (Million ton)
Hydro (TWh) Nuclear power
(TWh) Other (Million TOE) Primary energy
(Million TOE) Primary energy
-Excluding for raw materials
Major energy sources for power generation, including nuclear energy and LNG, are forecast to indicate a relatively high increase in demand, attributable to continually strong electricity demand and the operation of new nuclear power plants (Singori Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2, Sinwolseong Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1).
* Rate of increase in amount of nuclear power generation: (Year 2010) 0.6% →(Year 2011) 3.9% →(Year 2012) 9.2%
* Rate of increase in LNG demand: (Year 2010) 26.8% →(Year 2011) 10.1% →(Year 2012) 5.0%
Energy demand for raw material use (naphtha, coking coal) is expected to go up 4.6% in 2011 owing to an upswing in industrial production activities. Its level of increase will likely drop to 3.4% in 2012, reflecting a downturn in the petrochemical industry.
- Energy for raw material use is forecast to account for 23.3% of primary energy demand in 2012.
Forecasts on key energy indicators
The energy intensity (TOE/million won) is expected to improve from 0.252 in 2010 to 0.251 in 2011 and 0.249 in 2012.
- The energy intensity deteriorated temporarily in 2009 and 201027), but is expected to turn around and improve starting from 2011.
[FigureⅢ-3] Forecasts on the economic growth rate and primary energy demand increase rate
Per-capita energy consumption is forecast to rise from 5.37 TOE in 2010 to 5.54 TOE in 2011 and 5.70 TOE in 2012.
Notes: e refers to forecasts.
Category 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e
Economic growth rate (%) 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2 3.8 3.7
Primary energy consumption
3.8 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.1 7.9 3.3 3.0
increase rate (%)
Energy intensity (TOE/Million won) 0.264 0.256 0.247 0.246 0.248 0.252 0.251 0.249 Per capita consumption (TOE) 4.75 4.83 4.88 4.95 4.99 5.37 5.54 5.70
<TableⅢ-14> Key indices related to energy consumption
27) The deterioration of energy intensity in 2009 is a result of the rate of increase in primary energy consumption (1.1%) exceeding the economic growth rate (0.3%), owing to a rise in the energy conversion loss triggered by a sharp rise in electricity consumption and the operation of new facilities in industries that consume large amounts of energy. The worsened intensity in 2010 mainly resulted from a soar in energy consumption for industrial use, owing to a favorable turn in the economy and base effects, as well as a rise in energy consumption for cooling and heating purposes resulting from abnormal weather in the winter and summer.
[FigureⅢ-4] Forecasts on energy intensity and per capita consumption