Analysis of Promising Country for Seawater Desalination Plant Using Delphi Method

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** ǎၝݡ⦺Ʊ Õᖅ᜽ᜅ▽Ŗ⦺ᇡ ᕾᔍŝᱶ, Ŗ⦺ᔍ ([email protected]) Received May 14, 2013/ revised July 18, 2013/ accepted August 9, 2013

Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹ͸ͷʹȀǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͸Ǥʹ͵ͷͳ

ǤǤǤ

Delphi Ꮾ≓ⴂ#ⴲⱧ㬚#㬲⟖ᢲ⟖㰒#㫊ᵚ㡶#Ⳟᾛ#ጫᆾ#⍂⛛

ઑ୨জȵ׌ଵฅ

Yang, Jeong-Seok*, Kim, Il-Hwan**

Analysis of Promising Country for Seawater Desalination Plant Using Delphi Method

ABSTRACT

An index was developed for analyzing the promising countries for seawater desalination plant and related data sets were collected and analyzed. Each indicators was standardized by scale readjustment method and Delphi method was used to calculate the weights for indicators from questionnaire survey by experts in seawater desalination plant field. Twenty three indicators were selected and they were classified into three groups, economic, social, and environmental indicator groups. Eleven countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, China, Singapore, India, Algeria, Turkey, United States) were selected considering present data availability and index for each country was calculated. The results show United States and China took the first (0.537) and second (0.490) place for the most promising country for seawater desalination plant. However it will not be easy to play a significant role in the markets because of present seawater desalination technology level and national policy, etc. Saudi Arabia took the third (0.329) place and other countries which has more than 0.2 index value can be considered as a promising countries for seawater desalination plant. We can establish a strategy to export our seawater desalination technology and plant using the result of this study. The developed index can be applied to other countries, which were not included in this study, when their data is available.

Key words : Seawater desalination, Standardization, Delphi method, Overseas market

Ⅹಾ

⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎaᇥᕾᮥ᭥⦽ḡᙹෝ}ၽ⦹ᩡŁᯕෝ᭥⧕ᕽšಉࡽᯱഭෝᙹḲ⦹Łᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯱഭ᮹✚ᖒᔢǎa

ᄥಽ⠙₉a⍅ᜅ⍡ᯝᰍ᳑ᱶႊჶᮥ☖⧕bḡ⢽ᄥಽ⢽ᵡ⪵ෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡŁ, ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ᨱݡ⦽ᱥྙaॅᮥݡᔢᮝಽDelphi ʑჶᮥ

☖⦽ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕aᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ⅾ23}᮹ḡ⢽ෝ3aḡ᫵ᗭಽӹ٥ᨕbb᮹⧎༊ᄥಽaᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እᦥ, UAE, ⑁ᭉᯕ✙, ᯕ௡, ⋕┡෕, ᵲǎ, ᝒa⡍෕, ᯙࠥ, ᦭ᱽญ, ░┅, ၙǎ॒11}ǎa, ᷪ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆᮁ฾ǎaॅᨱݡ⧕ᕽ

ḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔑᱶࡽḡᙹෝእƱ⦹ᩡᮥভၙǎᯕ0.537, ᵲǎᯕ0.490, ᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እᦥa0.329ಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ⩥ḡᔍᱶᮥŁಅ⦹ᩡᮥ

ভ۵ၙǎŝᵲǎᮡ⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮥ⦹۵ߑฯᮡᨕಅᬡᯕᯩᮥᙹᯩḡอə᫙ᨱǎaᨱݡ⧕ᕽ۵ᅙᩑǍ᮹đŝෝၵ┶ᮝಽᱥఖᱢᮝಽ᜽

ᰆḥ⇽ᮥࠥ༉⦹۵ߑࠥᬡᯕࢁäᮝಽ❱݉ࡽ݅.

áᔪᨕ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵, ⢽ᵡ⪵, ߙ❭ᯕႊჶ, ⧕᫙᜽ᰆ

ঞąфԦࢗėॡ

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Fig. 1. Procedure of This Study

1. ᕽು

ᔑᨦ᮹Łࠥ⪵᪡ᯙǍ᮹⡎ၽᱢ᷾aಽݡࢱࡽ⪹Ğ᪅ᩝᮝಽ

ྜྷᙹ᫵۵ɪĊ⯩᷾a⧕᪵݅. ᗭ᭥ት൉ŉऽ௝Ł⢽⩥ࡹ۵ྜྷ

ᔑᨦᮡ⩥ᰍᖙĥ᜽ᰆȽ༉a800ᨖݍ్ෝչᨕᖑᮝ໑(Ministry of Environment, 2005) ᔑᨦᖒᰆŝ⧉̹ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ၰࠥ᜽⪵ಽ

ᯙ⧕ྜྷᇡ᳒ྙᱽ۵ᱱ₉ᝍb⧕ḡŁᯩ۵ᔢ⫊ᯕ݅. IPCC 4₉

ᅕŁᕽᨱ঑෕໕ᱥᖙĥᱢᮝಽ2080֥ݡᨱ۵11-32ᨖ໦᮹ᯙǍ aྜྷᇡ᳒ᮝಽŁ☖ၼíࢁäᯕ௝Ł⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, UNDPᨱᕽ۵

2000֥ᨱ۵ᱥᖙĥᱢᮝಽ5ᨖ໦᮹ᯙǍaྜྷʑɝᨱ᜽ݍญ໑

2025 ֥ᨱ۵40ᨖ໦ᮝಽʑ⦹ɪᙹᱢᮝಽ᷾a⧁äᯕ௝Łᩩ⊂⦹

ᩡ݅. ✚⯩, ᵲ࠺, ᯙࠥ, ᵲᇡ ᮁ౞, ᦥ⥥ญ⋕ ḡᩎᮡ ᝍb⦽ ྜྷ

ᇡ᳒ ǎaಽ ḡᱶࡹᨕ ᯩᮝ໑, ⦽ǎ ੱ⦽ ᩩ᫙۵ ᦥܩ݅(GWI, 2007). ੱ⦽ᔑᨦ⪵ᯕ⬥ᯙǍ᮹᷾a᪡ᔑᨦ᮹ၽݍᨱ঑ෙᔗ᮹

ḩᮥ⨆ᔢ᜽┅ʑ᭥⦽ྜྷ᮹ᙹ᫵ੱ⦽᷾a⦹Łᯩ۵⇵ᖙᯕ݅.

ᩍ్ᱥྙʑšᨱᕽၽ⢽⦽ྜྷᇡ᳒᧲ᅕ݅޵ᬒⓑᬊᙹపᯕ⦥᫵⦽

ᔢ⫊ᯕ௝❱݉ࡹ໑ᙹᯱᬱ᮹ᙹ᫵పᨱ঑ෙŖɪݡ₦ษಉᯕ᜽ɪ

⦽ᔢ⫊ᯕ௝Ł⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ⦹ḡอᔍᬊa܆⦽ᙹᯱᬱᮡḡǍᔢᨱ

᳕ᰍ⦹۵ྜྷᵲ2.5% ᯕԕಽ⦽ᱶࡹᨕᯩᮝ໑ᯕੱ⦽ᔑᨦၽݍŝ

ࠥ᜽⪵ಽᯙ⦽ḡ⢽ᙹ᮹዁ෙᮁ⇽ಽᙹᯱᬱ⪶ᅕੱ⦽ᛞḡᦫᮡ

ᝅᱶᯕ݅(Kim and Oh, 2009). ঑௝ᕽྜྷᙹ᫵ෝݡእ⦹ʑ᭥⦽

⧕ᙹෝ ᯕᬊ⦹۵ ႊჶᨱ šᝍᯕ ༉ᦥḡŁ ᯩ݅.

ᱥ ᖙĥᱢᮝಽ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ʑᚁᮡ ⦹ᙹᰍᯕᬊŝ ޵ᇩᨕ aᰆ

ⓑᖒᰆᖙෝᅕᯕŁᯩᮝ໑, ᵲ࠺ŝḡᵲ⧕॒ᙹᯱᬱ⪶ᅕaᨕಅᬕ

ḡᩎᨱᕽ۵ ᯕၙ ᵲ᫵⦽ ᬊᙹ Ŗɪᬱᮝಽ ᯕᬊࡹŁ ᯩ݅(GWI, 2007). ⧕᫙᮹Ğᬑ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵᜽ᰆᨱݡ⦽᳑ᔍ᪡ᩑǍa⪽ၽ⦹

íḥ⧪ࡹŁᯩᮝ໑, Data BaseǍ⇶ၰƱඹa⪽ၽ⦹ᩍݕᙹ⪵

⥭௽✙᜽ᰆᨱⓑᩢ⨆ᮥӝ⊹Łᯩ݅. ⦹ḡอǎԕᨱᕽ۵⧕ᙹݕᙹ

⪵⥭௽✙ʑᚁᩑǍᨱእ⧕⧕᫙᜽ᰆᨱݡ⦽᳑ᔍᩑǍaၙ⯂⦹ᩍ

ǎԕ ʑᨦ᮹ ⧕᫙ ᜽ᰆ ḥ⇽ ḡᬱᯕ ≉᧞⦽ ᝅᱶᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵“⧕᫙ྜྷʑɝ⩥⫊ŝᬊࠥᄥ/ǎaᄥᯱᅙḡ⇽

ᱥ฾ᮥ Łಅ⦽ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ ⥭௽✙ ᜽ᰆᖒ ⠪a(2011)”᮹ ⬥ᗮ

ᩑǍಽ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎaෝᖁᱶ⦹ᩍ

ǎԕ ʑᨦ᮹⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ ⥭௽✙ ⧕᫙᜽ᰆ ḥ⇽ᮥ ⦹۵ߑฯᮡ

ࠥᬡᯕ ࢁ äᮝಽ ❱݉ࡽ݅.

2. ᩑǍႊჶ

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎa

ᇥᕾᮥ᭥⧕bǎaᄥಽḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᩑǍ᮹ᙽᕽ۵Fig.

1 ŝ z݅. ↽᳦ᱢᯙ ḡᙹෝ ᔑᱶ⦹۵ߑ ᯩᨕᕽ ḡᙹ᮹ ᱶ᮹ ၰ

šಉࡽ ḡ⢽ෝ ᖁᱶ⦹Ł ᯕᨱ ݡ⦽ ᯱഭෝ ᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅. ᙹḲࡽ

ᯱഭෝ᫵ᗭᄥಽӹ٥ᨕᱶญ⦽⬥Delphi ʑჶᮥᯕᬊ⦽ḡ⢽᮹

ᖁᱶၰaᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. bḡ⢽ᨱݡ⧕⢽ᵡ⪵ෝᝅ⧪⦹Ł

⢽ᵡ⪵ෝÑ⊽ḡ⢽ᨱaᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹ᩍ↽᳦ḡᙹෝ☖⦽ᮁ฾ǎ aෝ ᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

2.1 ஺ඝট୨

⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ŝšಉࡽḡ⢽ෝᖁᱶ⦹Ł

ᩍʑᨱݡ⦽ᯱഭෝGlobal Water Market 2008ᨱᕽᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅.

a܆⦽༉ुᯱഭෝᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅Ł۵⦹ӹḡ⢽ॅᵲᱥྙaॅᯕ

❱݉⧩ᮥ ভ Ⓧí ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၙ⊹ḡ ༜⦹۵ ḡ⢽ӹ ⪚ᮡ ᩢ⨆ᮥ

ၙ⊹۵ḡ⢽ḡอၙ⃹⡍⧉᜽┅ḡ༜⦽ḡ⢽ॅᨱݡ⧕ᕽ⪶ᯙ⦹ʑ

᭥⧕ ḡ⢽ᨱ ݡ⦽ ᖁᱶᯕ ⦥᫵⦹݅. ᯕෝ ᭥⧕ ᅙ ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵

Delphi ʑჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍḡ⢽ෝᖁᱶ⦹Łəᨱݡ⦽aᵲ⊹ෝ

đᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

2.2 Delphi ׆࣑

Delphi ʑჶᮡᱢᱩ⦽ᩩ⊂ႊჶᮥ₟ᮥᙹᨧᮥভᱥྙaॅ᮹

Ḣšᮥ࠺ᬱ⦹ᩍၙ௹ෝᩩ⊂⦹۵ႊჶᯕ݅. ᱥྙaॅ᮹ᯖ໦ᖒᮥ

☖⦽᮹čƱ⪹ᮥ☖⧕ᯝᱶ⦽ᵝᱽᨱݡ⧕ᕽၹᅖᱢᯙ⦝ऽ႒ᮥ

⦹ᩍᕽಽ᮹᮹čᮥᙹಕ⦹Ł⧊ᯝᱱᮥ₟۵ʑჶᮝಽᱥྙaॅ᮹

Ḳ݉ᱢᔍŁෝ☖⦽ၙ௹ᩩ⊂ႊჶᯕ݅. ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ᇥ᧝᮹ᱥྙa

ෝᖁᱶ⦹Ł݅݉ĥᩑǍෝḥ⧪⦹۵ߑสݡ⦽᜽eᯕ⦥᫵⦹໑

ɚ݉ᱢ᮹čᮥ⃹ญ⦹۵ߑᨕಅᬡᯕᯩḡอྙᱽෝԪᱶ⦹Ł~š

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Table 1. Description of Indicators (continued)

Factors Indicators Description

Economic factors

GDP Gross domestic product GDP per capita Gross domestic product per capita Economic growth rate A rate of economic growth

Inflation Inflation rate, rate of inflation

Current account balance Except on transactions between international capital transactions, recurring transactions on the resin

Resin products Accounted for the import and export commodity trade between residents and non-residents

Export Sell GGexports of domestic goods and foreign technology

Import The foreign country in the production and processing process incoming goods through customs in this country

Foreign exchange reserves Country that holds the total amount of foreign currency bonds Total debt balance Total of Residents to non-residents have an obligation to repay foreign ᱢᮝಽá☁⧁ᙹᯩ݅۵ᰆᱱᯕᯩ݅(Lee, 2001). ᖅྙᮡₙᩍə൚

ᵲᗭᙹ᮹ɚ݉ᱢ᮹čᨱݡ⦽ᰍ᳑ᱶᮥŁಅ⦹Ł~šᱢᯙđುᮥ

ࠥ⇽⦹ʑ᭥⧕ⅾ3ჩ᮹ᖅྙᮥḥ⧪⦹ᩡᮝ໑b݉ĥᄥ⦝ऽ႒ᮥ

☖⧕ ᮹čᮥ ᙹಕ⦹ᩡ݅. ᖅྙ ə൚ᮝಽ۵ ⅾ 19໦ᮥ ݡᔢᮝಽ

ḥ⧪⦹ᩡŁ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ෝᩑǍ⦹۵ᱥྙᱢᯙᩑǍᬱ8໦ŝ

ʑᨦℕᵲ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ᔍᨦᮥḥ⧪ᮥݕݚ⦹۵ݡญᯕᔢ

6 ໦, ݡ⦺Ʊ᮹Ʊᙹ᪡ၶᔍᯕᔢ5໦ᮝಽǍᖒࡹᨩ݅. ⅾ3ჩ᮹

ᖅྙᵲℌჩṙᖅྙᨱᕽ۵}ႊ⩶ḩྙᮥ⦹ᩍḡ⢽᮹ᖁᱶᮥ

⦹ᩡ݅. }ႊ⩶ḩྙᮥ☖⧕⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮥ᭥⧕

Łಅࡹᨕ᧝⦹۵ḡ⢽, ⪚ᮡḡ⢽ᵲđುᮥࠥ⇽⦹۵ߑᩢ⨆ᮥ

ၙ⊹ḡᦫᮥḡ⢽ॅᮥᖁᱶ⦹Łəᨱ⧊ݚ⦽ɝÑෝᔑ⇽⦹ᩡ݅.

ᖁᱶࡽḡ⢽ෝၵ┶ᮝಽGlobal Water Market 2008ᨱᕽᯱഭෝ

ᙹḲ⦹ᩍᖅྙḡ᪡⧉̹႑⡍⦹ᩡ݅. ࢱჩṙ, ᖙჩṙᖅྙᨱᕽ۵

ᖁᱶࡽḡ⢽᮹aᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹Ł~šᱢᯙđುᮥࠥ⇽⦹۵ŝᱶ

ᮥ ḥ⧪⦹ᩡ݅.

2.3 ஺ඝଭඝஜฃ

bbᖁ┾ࡽḡ⢽ॅ᮹Ğᬑbǎaᄥಽ⠙₉aᝍ⦹ᩍaᵲ⊹ෝ

ᇡᩍ⦹ʑᱥᨱᯕᨱݡ⦽᳑ᱶᯕ⦥᫵⦹݅. ᯕෝ᭥⧕bḡ⢽ᄥಽ

⢽ᵡ⪵ෝ ᝅ᜽⦽݅. ⢽ᵡ⪵᮹ ႊჶᨱ۵ ᙽ᭥ ๅʑʑ, Z-ᜅ⎵ᨕ, ᜅ⍡ᯝ ᰍ᳑ᱶ॒ᯕ ᯩ۵ߑ ᙽ᭥ๅʑʑ᮹ Ğᬑ aᰆ݉ᙽ⦹Ł

e݉⦽ ႊჶᯕ௝⧁ ᙹ ᯩḡอaᵲ⊹ෝ ᇡᩍ⧁ Ğᬑɚsᮝಽ

⊹ݍᮥᙹᯩᨕᱢ⧊⦹ḡ༜⦹݅. Z-ᜅ⎵ᨕႊჶ᮹Ğᬑ⢽ᵡ⪵

ႊჶᮝಽ aᰆ ᅕ⠙ᱢᮝಽ ᔍᬊࡹŁ ᯩḡอ b ǎaᄥ ḡ⢽ᨱ

ݡ⦽ᯱഭaᱶȽᇥ⡍ᯙĞᬑᨱอᝁ഑ࠥa׳ᮡႊჶᯕʑᨱᇡᱢ

⧊⦹݅Ł❱݉⦹ᩡ݅(Yu and Kim, 2008). ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ǎa

ᄥಽ ⠙₉aᝍ⦹ᩍ ᜅ⍡ᯝ ᰍ᳑ᱶႊჶᮥ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ ᵲesᮥ

ᯕᬊ⦽ᱶȽ⪵ෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᜅ⍡ᯝᰍ᳑ᱶႊჶᮡ⢽ᵡ⠙₉ᅕ݅

ḡ⢽᮹ჵ᭥ᨱ ʑၹᮥ ࢱᨕ༉ु ᯱഭa ࠺ᯝ⦽ჵ᭥ෝ wࠥಾ

⦹۵ äᯕ݅.

2.4 ԧண౿ऀ઱

↽᳦ᱢᯙ ḡᙹෝ ᔑᱶ⦹۵ ႊჶᮡ ݅ᮭŝ z݅.

² á ķ

Î

Z ĸ

Î

Z ±

Î

âķ

_Ï

Z ĸ

Ï

Z ±

Ï

âzâķ

_ƌ

Z ĸ

ƌ

Z ±

ƌ

± á ¢ƌƂƇƁſƒƍƐ

² á ƇƌſƊ ƇƌƂƃƖ

⢽ᵡ⪵⦽ ḡ⢽ᨱDelphi ʑჶᮥ☖⧕đᱶࡽaᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ

⦽݅.

3. đŝၰŁₑ

3.1 Delphi ׆࣑ଡଲ૳෉஺ඝէ୨

ᖁᱶࡽḡ⢽ෝݡᔢᮝಽDelphi ႊჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ↽᳦ᱢᮝಽ

3 aḡ᫵ᗭᨱݡ⧕23}᮹ḡ⢽ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. Ğᱽᱢ᫵ᗭ, ᔍ⫭ᱢ

᫵ᗭ, ⪹Ğᱢ᫵ᗭಽᇥඹ⦹ᩡᮝ໑Ğᱽᱢ᫵ᗭᨱ۵GDP, 1ᯙݚ

GDP, Ğᱽᖒᰆශ, ྜྷaᖒᰆශ, Ğᔢᙹḡ, ᔢ⣩ᙹḡ, ᙹ⇽, ᙹ᯦,

᫙⪹ᅕᮁᧂ, ⅾ᫙₥᯵ᧂᯕᯩ݅. ᔍ⫭ᱢ᫵ᗭᨱ۵ᯙǍᙹ, ࠥ᜽

ᯙǍᙹ, ḡႊᯙǍᙹ, ᯙǍ᷾aᮉ, ࠥ᜽ᯙǍ᷾aᮉ, ḡႊᯙǍ

᷾aᮉᯕᯩᮝ໑, ⪹Ğᱢ᫵ᗭᨱ۵ᙹᯱᬱᯕᬊ⩥⫊, ᔢ/⦹ᙹࠥ

ᯱᅙḡ⇽⩥⫊, ᔢ/⦹ᙹࠥᬕᩢ⩥⫊, ྜྷʑɝ⩥⫊, ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵

⥭௽✙⩥⫊ᯕᯩ݅. ᱽ᫙ࡽḡ⢽ಽ۵⧕᫙Õᖅ᜽ᰆȽ༉, ⧕᫙Õᖅ

ๅ⇽ᧂ⇵ᯕ॒ᯕᯩᨩŁᱽ᫙ࡽᔍᮁಽ۵⧕᫙Õᖅ᜽ᰆȽ༉ᨱᕽ

(4)

Table 1. Description of Indicators

Factors Indicators Description

Social factors

Population The number of people who live in certain areas Urban population The number of people living in urban areas The local population The number of people living in the local areas Population growth rate People living in certain areas, the rate of increase.

Urban population growth People living in urban areas, the rate of increase Local population growth People living in local areas, the rate of increase

Environmental factors

Water usage Use of water resources status

Waterworks capital expenditure Status of the capital expenditure in waterworks Sewer capital expenditure Status of the capital expenditure in sewer Status of waterworks operations On the operational status of the waterworks

Status of sewer operations On the operational status of the sewer Status of water famine The current situation of water famine

Seawater desalination plant status The current situation seawater desalination plants

Table 2. Weights of Indicators

Factors Weights Indicators Weights

Economic factors 0.29

GDP 0.21

GDP per capita 0.19

Economic growth rate 0.11

Inflation 0.08

Current account balance 0.05

Resin products 0.06

Export 0.07

Import 0.06

Foreign exchange reserves 0.09

Total debt balance 0.08

Social factors 0.2

Population 0.22

Urban population 0.27

The local population 0.09 Population growth rate 0.14 Urban population growth 0.2

Local population growth 0.08

Environmental factors 0.51

Water usage 0.19

Waterworks capital expenditure 0.08 Sewer capital expenditure 0.05 Status of Waterworks operations 0.11 Status of Sewer operations 0.05 Status of water famine 0.3 Seawater Desalination Plant Status 0.22

׳ᮡእᵲᮥ₉ḡ⦹Łᯩ۵äᮡÕ⇶šಉᇥ᧝a׳íӹ┡ӹŁ

ᯩᨕ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ŝ۵ⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹ḡ༜⦹݅۵

᮹čᯕᨩ݅. ᖁᱶࡽ ḡ⢽ॅᨱ ݡ⦽ ᖅ໦ᮡ Table 1ŝ z݅.

↽᳦ᱢᮝಽ᭥᮹ḡ⢽ෝGlobal Water Market 2008 ॒ᖙĥᱢ

ᮝಽŖᯙࡽᯱഭෝၵ┶ᮝಽᙹḲ⧁ᙹᯩ۵ǎaෝᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

ə đŝ ᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እᦥ, UAE, ⑁ᭉᯕ✙, ᯕ௡, ⋕┡෕, ᵲǎ,

ᝒa⡍෕, ᯙࠥ, ᦭ᱽญ, ░┅, ၙǎ ॒ ⅾ 11} ǎaᨱ ݡ⧕ᕽ

ᯱഭෝ ᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅.

(5)

Table 3. Weighted Data for Economic Indicators

GDP GDP per capita

Economic

growth rate Inflation

Current account balance

Resin

products Export Income

Foreign exchange

reserves

Total debt balance Total Saudi

Arabia 0.002 0.001 0.011 0.004 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.011 0.004 0.003 0.046 UAE 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.012 0.000 0.002 0.027 Kuwait 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.021 Iran 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.023 0.000 0.017 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.055 Qatar 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.060 China 0.022 0.021 0.015 0.003 0.007 0.003 0.022 0.018 0.026 0.019 0.155 Singapore 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.004 0.012 0.002 0.004 0.039 India 0.007 0.006 0.013 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.002 0.013 0.002 0.002 0.064 Algeria 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.024 Turkey 0.002 0.002 0.007 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.012 0.001 0.001 0.036 US 0.059 0.054 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.017 0.000 0.001 0.015 0.149

Table 4. Weighted Data for Social Indicators

Population Urban population Local population Population growth rate Urban population growth Local population growth Total

Saudi Arabia 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.007

UAE 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.029

Kuwait 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.004

Iran 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.012

Qatar 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001

China 0.043 0.053 0.018 0.000 0.039 0.017 0.169

Singapore 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002

India 0.038 0.048 0.017 0.002 0.036 0.015 0.156

Algeria 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.006

Turkey 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.009 0.002 0.001 0.018

3.2 ԧண౿է୨

b ᯙᯱॅᨱ ݡ⦽ aᵲ⊹۵ ߙ❭ᯕ ʑჶᮥ ☖⧕ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵

⥭௽✙šಉᱥྙaॅ᮹ᖅྙᮥ⦹Łᖅྙ⬥đŝsᮥᱶญ⦹ᩍ

⦝ऽ႒ᮥ ⦹ᩍ ᰍ ᖅྙᮥ ☖⧕ aᵲ⊹ෝ đᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ⅾ 3ჩ᮹

ᖅྙŝ 2ჩ᮹ ⦝ऽ႒ᮥ Ñℱ aᵲ⊹ෝ đᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

Table 2᮹ᇥᕾđŝෝᅕíࡹ໕3aḡ᫵ᗭᨱݡ⧕ᕽ۵⪹Ğᱢ

᫵ᗭaaᰆⓍíӹ┡ԍᮝ໑Ğᱽᱢ, ᔍ⫭ᱢ᫵ᗭᙽᮝಽđᱶࡹᨩ

݅. ⪹Ğᱢ᫵ᗭᵲ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⩥⫊ᯕᱥℕᵲ11.6%ෝ

ӹ┡ԕ໑ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ ⧕᫙ ᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮥ ⦹۵ߑ aᰆⓑ

ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍŁəअෝᯕᨕᙹᯱᬱ⩥⫊ᯕ9.6%, GDP, 1 ᯙݚGDP, ࠥ᜽ᯙǍᙹ, ᔢᙹࠥᬕᩢ⩥⫊ᯕ5%ᯕᔢ᮹

እᵲᮥ ₉ḡ⦹ᩡ݅.

3.3 ැ৤ۡ৤ฃර޻ൈැ૤ਏୋ஼ౢକ࠷֝ԧট୨ ᜅ⍡ᯝᰍ᳑ᱶႊჶᮥ☖⧕⢽ᵡ⪵⦽ḡ⢽ॅᮥđᱶࡽaᵲ⊹ෝ

ᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ ↽᳦ᱢᯙ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ ⥭௽✙ ⧕᫙ ᜽ᰆ ᮁ฾ ǎa᮹

ᙽ᭥ෝ đᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

Table 3 ᮡĞᱽᱢ᫵ᗭෝ⢽ᵡ⪵⦹ᩍaᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦽đŝᯕ݅.

ᵲǎᯕ0.155ಽaᰆ׳íӹ┡ԍŁၙǎᯕअෝᯕᨕ0.149ಽ

ӹ┡ԍ݅. ᵲǎᮡGDP, 1ᯙݚGDP, Ğᱽᖒᰆශ, ᙹ᯦, ᙹ⇽, ᫙⪹

ᅕᮁᧂ, ⅾ᫙₥᯵ᧂᯕ0.015 ᯕᔢᮥӹ┡ԕĞᱽᱢ᫵ᗭᵲᨱ۵

aᰆ׳ᮡḡᙹaᔑᱶࡹᨩ݅. ၙǎᮡ GDP᪡1ᯙݚGDPᨱᕽ

༉ࢱ 0.05ᯕᔢᮥ ᅕᩍ ᵲǎ ݅ᮭᮝಽ ׳ᮡ ḡᙹa ᔑᱶࡹᨩ݅.

Table 4 ۵ᔍ⫭ᱢ᫵ᗭ᮹ḡᙹᯕ݅. ᵲǎŝᯙࠥaᔍ⫭ᱢ᫵ᗭ ᨱᕽ ݅ෙ ӹ௝ॅᨱ እ⧕ ᬵ॒⯩ ׳ᮭᮥ ᅝ ᙹ ᯩ݅. ᯙǍᙹ᪡

ࠥ᜽ᯙǍᙹᨱᕽ0.035ᯕᔢᮥᅕᯕ໑׳íӹ┡ԍ݅. UAE۵݅ෙ

(6)

Table 5. Weighted Data for Environmental Indicators

Water usage

Waterworks capital expenditure

Sewer capital expenditure

Status of Waterworks

operations

Status of Sewer operations

Status of water famine

Seawater Desalination

Plant Status

Total

Saudi Arabia 0.000 0.003 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.153 0.117 0.277

UAE 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.153 0.017 0.173

Kuwait 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.153 0.020 0.174

Iran 0.004 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.000 0.010 0.003 0.023

Qatar 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.153 0.005 0.159

China 0.062 0.011 0.025 0.045 0.000 0.000 0.022 0.166

Singapore 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.153 0.005 0.159

India 0.052 0.003 0.000 0.023 0.013 0.000 0.001 0.091

Algeria 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.153 0.020 0.176

Turkey 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.021

US 0.096 0.043 0.026 0.055 0.024 0.013 0.091 0.348

Table 6. Final Indices and Rank

Final Index Rank

Saudi Arabia 0.329 3

UAE 0.228 5

Kuwait 0.199 9

Iran 0.091 10

Qatar 0.219 6

China 0.490 2

Singapore 0.200 8

India 0.311 4

Algeria 0.206 7

Turkey 0.075 11

US 0.537 1

Fig. 2. Final Indices ḡ⢽ॅᨱእ⧕ݡᇡᇥ᮹ḡᙹᵲᯙǍᖒᰆශᯕ0.028ᮥ₉ḡ⦹ᩍ

እƱᱢ ׳ᮡ sᮥ ᅕᯕŁ ᯩ݅.

Table 5۵⪹Ğᱢ᫵ᗭᨱݡ⦽ḡᙹsᯕ݅. ⪹Ğᱢ᫵ᗭᨱᕽ۵

ྜྷʑɝ⩥⫊ᨱᕽᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እᦥ, UAE, ⑁ᭉᯕ✙, ⋕┡෕, ᝒa⡍෕,

᦭ᱽญa༉ࢱ100%ෝӹ┡ԕ༉ࢱ0.153ᮥӹ┡ԩ݅. ᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እ ᦥ᮹ Ğᬑaᰆฯᮡ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ᅕᮁǎᮝಽ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽

✙ ⩥⫊ᨱᕽ 0.117ᯕ ӹ┡ԍ݅. ၙǎᮡ ᙹᯱᬱ ⩥⫊ ᔢᙹࠥ ᯱᅙ

ḡ⇽॒ݡᇡᇥ᮹᫵ᗭᨱᕽ׳ᮡᱱᙹෝӹ┡ԕ໑0.348ᮥӹ┡ԩ݅.

aᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦽Ğᱽᱢ᫵ᗭ, ᔍ⫭ᱢ᫵ᗭ, ⪹Ğᱢ᫵ᗭෝ᳦⧊

⦹ᩍ᨜ᮡ↽᳦ᱢᯙ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎa

ḡᙹᯕ݅. ↽᳦ᱢᯙḡᙹᨱᕽၙǎᯕ0.537ಽaᰆ׳íӹ᪵݅.

ᔍ⫭ᱢ᫵ᗭෝᱽ᫙⦹Ł۵ݡᇡᇥ᮹᫵ᗭᨱᕽ׳ᮡḡᙹaᔑᱶࡹ

ᨕ᳦⧊ᱢᯙḡᙹᨱᕽaᰆ׳íӹ┡ԍ݅. अෝᯕᨕᵲǎᯕ0.490 ᮝಽ༉ु᫵ᗭᨱᕽ0.15 ᯕᔢᯕᔑᱶࡹᨕ݅ᮭŝzᮡ↽᳦ᱢᯙ

ḡᙹa ӹ┡ԍ݅. ᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እᦥ۵ 0.329ಽ ⪹Ğᱢ ᫵ᗭᨱᕽ

0.277 ᮥ ၼᦥ ᖙ ჩṙಽ ׳ᮡ ḡᙹa ᔑᱶࡹᨩ݅.

᭥᮹↽᳦ᱢᯙḡᙹ۵bb᮹ᙹ⊹ᨱݡ⧕ᕽᱶప⪵⦹ᩍӹ┡ԙ

ᙹ⊹ॅᯕ݅. ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎaᨱၙǎᯕ

1᭥ಽᖁᱶࡹᨩḡอ⩥ᝅᱢᯙᔢ⫊ᮥŁಅ⦹íࡹ໕⩥ḡ᮹Ğᱽᖒᰆ ᯕࢵ⪵ࡹ໕ᕽĞᱽᔢ⫊᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၼᦥÕᖅ᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᨱฯᮡ᧞ᱱᮝ ಽӹ┡ӹŁᯩ݅. ੱ⦽ᵲǎ᮹Õᖅᔑᨦᯕၙǎᨱᕽɪᖒᰆ⦹Ł

ᯩŁ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ᔑᨦᖁࢱᨦℕෝᅕᮁ⦽ǎaᯕ໑ᯙÕእa

׳Łᬱ⃽ʑᚁᯕ⪶ᅕࡹᨕᯩᨕḥ⇽⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᕽ۵ᬑญᨦℕ᮹

ĞᰢಆᯕⓍí⨆ᔢࡹᨕ᧝⧁äᮝಽᅕᯙ݅. ᵲǎੱ⦽⨆⬥ᬑญӹ௝

ʑᨦᯕḥ⇽⧁ĞᬑӺ⬥ࡽי࠺᳑Õ, እญၰ⬂ಚ॒᮹ᱶᇡᇡ➉a

᳕ᰍ⦹໑Ŗᔑᵝ᮹ᱶǭᯕḡᗮᱢᮝಽ᳕ᰍ⦹Łᯱǎᔑᨦᅕ⪙ᵝ᮹

॒᮹᧞ᱱᯕᯩ݅. ᵲǎᮡྜྷ᜽ᰆᯕᵲᦺᱶᇡ᪡ḡႊᱶᇡ᮹š⧁

⦹ᨱᯩᨕ᧲ᱶᇡ᮹⩲᳑a⦥᫵ಽ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᫙ǎᖁḥᨦℕॅ᮹

ḥ⇽ႊ᜾ᮥᅕíࡹ໕݉ᙽ᜽Ŗᮥჸᨕӹᬕᩢʭḡ⡍ť⦹۵᳦⧊ᱢ

ᯙᕽእᜅෝᱽŖ⦹Łᯩᨕᬑญӹ௝᮹ᨦℕࠥᯕ᪡zᮡႊ᜾ᮥ

(7)

ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍḥ⇽ᱥఖᮥᖙᬕ݅໕ฯᮡʑ⫭ෝᱽŖၼᮥᙹᯩᮥäᮝಽ

❱݉ࡽ݅. ᙹ⊹⪵⧁ᙹᯩ۵ḡ⢽᫙ᨱࠥ᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮥ⦹۵ߑᨱ۵

ฯᮡ᫵ᗭa᯲ᬊᮥ⦹Łᯩ݅. ʑᚁᙹᵡᇥᕾၰᱶ⊹ᱢᔢ⫊॒᮹

ḡ⢽ॅᨱݡ⧕ᕽᙹ⊹⪵⦹Łᱶప⪵⧁ᙹᯩ۵ႊჶᮥ⇵a⦽݅໕

᳡޵~šᱢᯙđುᮥࠥ⇽⧁ᙹᯩᮥäᯕ݅. əᨱݡ⦽ᯱഭ᮹

Ǎ⇶ᮡᯱഭ᮹ᙹḲᮥ⦹۵ߑᯩᨕᕽ⦺ƱၰᩑǍᗭᨱᕽḥ⧪⦹۵ߑ

ฯᮡᨕಅᬡᯕᯩ݅. ฯᮡ⧕᫙᮹ᯱഭෝǍ⇶⦹Łᯩ۵ᬑญӹ௝᮹

ʑᨦℕ᮹ ࠥᬡᮥ ၼᦥ ᙹ⊹ෝ ᱶప⪵ᩍ ᱥఖᱢᮝಽ ᜽ᰆ ḥ⇽ᮥ

ࠥ༉⦽݅໕ ᅙ ᩑǍ đŝa ࠥᬡᯕ ࢁ äᮝಽ ❱݉ࡽ݅.

4. đು

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎaᇥᕾᮥ

᭥⧕ šಉࡽ ᯱഭෝ ᙹḲ⦹Ł ᯕᨱ ݡ⧕ᕽ ᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯱഭ᮹

✚ᖒᔢǎaᄥಽ⠙₉a⍅ᜅ⍡ᯝᰍ᳑ᱶႊჶᮥ☖⧕bḡ⢽ᄥಽ

⢽ᵡ⪵ෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡŁ, ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ᨱݡ⦽ᱥྙaॅᮥݡᔢ ᮝಽDelphi ʑჶᮥ☖⦽ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕aᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

ᖅྙᮡₙᩍə൚ᵲᗭᙹ᮹ɚ݉ᱢ᮹čᨱݡ⦽ᰍ᳑ᱶᮥŁಅ⦹Ł

~šᱢᯙđುᮥࠥ⇽⦹ʑ᭥⧕ⅾ3ჩ᮹ᖅྙᮥḥ⧪⦹ᩡᮝ໑

b݉ĥᄥ⦝ऽ႒ᮥ☖⧕᮹čᮥᙹಕ⦹ᩡ݅. ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙

ᱥྙaॅᮥݡᔢᮝಽᖅྙᮥᝅ᜽⦽đŝ⪹Ğᱢ᫵ᗭᵲ⧕ᙹݕᙹ

⪵⥭௽✙⩥⫊ᯕᱥℕᵲ11.6%ෝӹ┡ԕ໑⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙

⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮥ⦹۵ߑaᰆⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍŁ

əअෝᯕᨕᙹᯱᬱ⩥⫊ᯕ9.6%, GDP, 1ᯙݚGDP, ࠥ᜽ᯙǍᙹ, ᔢᙹࠥ ᬕᩢ ⩥⫊ᯕ 5%ᯕᔢ᮹ እᵲᮥ ₉ḡ⦹ᩡ݅.

ⅾ23}᮹ḡ⢽ෝ3aḡ᫵ᗭಽӹ٥ᨕbb᮹⧎༊ᄥಽaᵲ⊹

ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እᦥ, UAE, ⑁ᭉᯕ✙, ᯕ௡, ⋕┡෕, ᵲǎ, ᝒa⡍෕, ᯙࠥ, ᦭ᱽญ, ░┅, ၙǎ॒11}ǎaᨱݡ⧕ᕽ

⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆᮁ฾ǎaෝḡᙹ⪵⦹ᩍᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

ᙹ⊹⪵ࡽᯱഭෝእƱ⦹ᩡᮥভၙǎᯕ0.537, ᵲǎᯕ0.490, ᔍᬑ ॵᦥ௝እᦥa0.329ಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ၙǎᯕ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙

᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎa1᭥ಽӹ┡ԍḡอ⩥ᝅᱢᯙᔢ⫊ᮥŁಅ⦹໕

⩥ḡ᮹Ğᱽᖒᰆᯕࢵ⪵ࡹ໕ᕽĞᱽᔢ⫊᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၼᦥÕᖅ᜽ᰆ

ḥ⇽ᨱฯᮡ᧞ᱱᮝಽӹ┡ӹŁᯩ݅. ੱ⦽ᵲǎ᮹Õᖅᔑᨦᯕ

ၙǎᨱᕽɪᖒᰆ⦹ŁᯩŁ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ᔑᨦᖁࢱᨦℕෝ

ᅕᮁ⦽ǎaᯕ໑ᯙÕእa׳Łᬱ⃽ʑᚁᯕ⪶ᅕࡹᨕᯩᨕၙǎ

᜽ᰆᮥḥ⇽⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᕽ۵ᬑญӹ௝ᨦℕ᮹ĞᰢಆᯕⓍí⨆ᔢࡹ

ᨕ᧝⧁äᯕ݅. 2᭥ෝ⦹Łᯩ۵ᵲǎੱ⦽⨆⬥ᬑญӹ௝ʑᨦᯕ

ḥ⇽⧁ Ğᬑ Ӻ⬥ࡽ י࠺᳑Õ, እญ ၰ ⬂ಚ ॒᮹ ᱶᇡ ᇡ➉a

᳕ᰍ⦹໑Ŗᔑᵝ᮹ᱶǭᯕḡᗮᱢᮝಽ᳕ᰍ⦹Łᯱǎᔑᨦᅕ⪙ᵝ ᮹ ॒᮹ ᧞ᱱᯕ ᯩ݅. ᵲǎᮡ ྜྷ᜽ᰆᯕ ᵲᦺᱶᇡ᪡ ḡႊᱶᇡ᮹

š⧁ ⦹ᨱ ᯩᨕ ᧲ ᱶᇡ᮹ ⩲᳑a ⦥᫵ಽ ⦹۵ ॒᮹ ⩥ᝅᱢᯙ

ᔢ⫊ᯕ ᯩ۵ ᝅᱶᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ}ၽ⦽⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆᮁ฾ǎaෝ

ᇥᕾ⦹۵ߑᔍᬊ⦽ḡᙹ۵bǎaᄥĞᱽᱢ᫵ᗭ, ᔍ⫭ᱢ᫵ᗭ,

⪹Ğᱢ ᫵ᗭෝ ༉ࢱ Łಅ⦹ᩍ ḡᙹ sᮝಽ ⢽⩥ ⧁ ᙹ ᯩ݅۵

ᰆᱱᯕᯩ݅. ੱ⦽ᱥྙaॅ᮹᮹čᮥၹᩢ⦽aᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹ᩍ

bḡ⢽ᄥᵲ᫵ᖒᨱݡ⧕ᕽ❱݉⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ⩥ḡ᮹ྙ⪵ᱢ₉ᯕ, ᱶ⊹ᱢᔢ⫊, ᔍ⫭ྙᱽ, ʑᚁᱢ₉ᯕ॒ᮥŁಅ⧁ᙹᯩ۵ḡ⢽ॅᮥ

}ၽ⦹Łᯕᨱݡ⦽ᯱഭ᮹ᙹḲᯕᬱ⪽⦹íᯕ൥ḥ݅໕~šᱢᯕ Łᝁ഑ᖒᯩ۵ᙹ⊹ෝࠥ⇽⦹ᩍᬑญӹ௝ᨦℕॅ᮹⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵

⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮥ⦹۵ߑฯᮡࠥᬡᯕࢁäᯕ௝❱݉ࡽ݅.

qᔍ᮹ɡ

ᯕםྙᮡᱶᇡ(ǎ☁Ʊ☖ᇡ)᮹ᰍᬱᮝಽ⥭௽✙ʑᚁŁࠥ⪵ᔍᨦ ᮹ ḡᬱᮥ ၼᦥ ᙹ⧪ࡽ ᩑǍᯥ(07SeaHeroB01-01).

ᯕםྙᮡ2012֥ࠥᱶᇡ(Ʊᮂŝ⦺ʑᚁᇡ)᮹ᰍᬱᮝಽ⦽ǎᩑ Ǎᰍ݉᮹ ḡᬱᮥ ၼᦥ ᙹ⧪ࡽ ᩑǍᯥ(No.2012-005348).

References

Global Water Intelligence (2007). Global water market 2008: Opporunities in scarcity and environmental regulation, USA.

IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science synthesis report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Kim, I. S. and Oh, B. S. (2009). “Emerging water industry-Seawater desalination.” Korean Society of Civil Engineers Magazine, KSCE, Vol. 57, No. 8, pp. 15-21 (in Korean).

Lee, J. S. (2001). Method of delphi, Publisher of Education and Science (in Korean).

Ministry of Environment (2005). Study on the development strategy of water industry (in Korean).

Nardo, M., Saisana, M., Saltelli, A. and Taranta, S. (2005). Tools for composite indicators building, Eurepean Communities.

Son, M. W., Sung, J. Y., Chung, E. S. and Jun, K. S. (2011).

“Development of flood vulnerability index considering climate change.” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 231-248 (in Korean).

UNDP (2005). Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change:

Developing strategies, Policies and Measures, Cambridge University Press.

Yang, J. S., Sohn, J. S. and Kang, D. S. (2011). “Market evaluation of seawater desalination plant considering international water scarcity and expense outlook by use and nation.” Journal of Korean Society on Water Quality, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 178-187 (in Korean).

Yu, G. Y. and Yu, I. A. (2008). Introduction method development

and vulnerability assessment index of climate change, Korea

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Analysis of Promising Country for Seawater Desalination Plant Using Delphi Method

Ǥ ǤǤ

ઑ୨জ ȵ׌ଵฅ

Yang, Jeong-Seok*, Kim, Il-Hwan**

Analysis of Promising Country for Seawater Desalination Plant Using Delphi Method

ABSTRACT

Key words : Seawater desalination, Standardization, Delphi method, Overseas market

Ⅹಾ

⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎaᇥᕾᮥ᭥⦽ḡᙹෝ}ၽ⦹ᩡŁᯕෝ᭥⧕ᕽšಉࡽᯱഭෝᙹḲ⦹Łᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯱഭ᮹✚ᖒᔢǎa

ᄥಽ⠙₉a⍅ᜅ⍡ᯝᰍ᳑ᱶႊჶᮥ☖⧕bḡ⢽ᄥಽ⢽ᵡ⪵ෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡŁ, ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙ᨱݡ⦽ᱥྙaॅᮥݡᔢᮝಽDelphi ʑჶᮥ

ḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔑᱶࡽḡᙹෝእƱ⦹ᩡᮥভၙǎᯕ0.537, ᵲǎᯕ0.490, ᔍᬑॵᦥ௝እᦥa0.329ಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ⩥ḡᔍᱶᮥŁಅ⦹ᩡᮥ

ভ۵ၙǎŝᵲǎᮡ⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮥ⦹۵ߑฯᮡᨕಅᬡᯕᯩᮥᙹᯩḡอə᫙ᨱǎaᨱݡ⧕ᕽ۵ᅙᩑǍ᮹đŝෝၵ┶ᮝಽᱥఖᱢᮝಽ᜽

ᰆḥ⇽ᮥࠥ༉⦹۵ߑࠥᬡᯕࢁäᮝಽ❱݉ࡽ݅.

áᔪᨕ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵, ⢽ᵡ⪵, ߙ❭ᯕႊჶ, ⧕᫙᜽ᰆ

  

Fig. 1. Procedure of This Study

1. ᕽು

ᔑᨦ᮹Łࠥ⪵᪡ᯙǍ᮹⡎ၽᱢ᷾aಽݡࢱࡽ⪹Ğ᪅ᩝᮝಽ

ྜྷᙹ᫵۵ɪĊ⯩᷾a⧕᪵݅. ᗭ᭥ት൉ŉऽ௝Ł⢽⩥ࡹ۵ྜྷ

ᔑᨦᮡ⩥ᰍᖙĥ᜽ᰆȽ༉a800ᨖݍ్ෝչᨕᖑᮝ໑(Ministry of Environment, 2005) ᔑᨦᖒᰆŝ⧉̹ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ၰࠥ᜽⪵ಽ

ᯙ⧕ྜྷᇡ᳒ྙᱽ۵ᱱ₉ᝍb⧕ḡŁᯩ۵ᔢ⫊ᯕ݅. IPCC 4₉

ᅕŁᕽᨱ঑෕໕ᱥᖙĥᱢᮝಽ2080֥ݡᨱ۵11-32ᨖ໦᮹ᯙǍ aྜྷᇡ᳒ᮝಽŁ☖ၼíࢁäᯕ௝Ł⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, UNDPᨱᕽ۵

2000֥ᨱ۵ᱥᖙĥᱢᮝಽ5ᨖ໦᮹ᯙǍaྜྷʑɝᨱ᜽ݍญ໑

2025 ֥ᨱ۵40ᨖ໦ᮝಽʑ⦹ɪᙹᱢᮝಽ᷾a⧁äᯕ௝Łᩩ⊂⦹

ᩡ݅. ✚⯩, ᵲ࠺, ᯙࠥ, ᵲᇡ ᮁ౞, ᦥ⥥ญ⋕ ḡᩎᮡ ᝍb⦽ ྜྷ

ᇡ᳒ ǎaಽ ḡᱶࡹᨕ ᯩᮝ໑, ⦽ǎ ੱ⦽ ᩩ᫙۵ ᦥܩ݅(GWI, 2007). ੱ⦽ᔑᨦ⪵ᯕ⬥ᯙǍ᮹᷾a᪡ᔑᨦ᮹ၽݍᨱ঑ෙᔗ᮹

ḩᮥ⨆ᔢ᜽┅ʑ᭥⦽ྜྷ᮹ᙹ᫵ੱ⦽᷾a⦹Łᯩ۵⇵ᖙᯕ݅.

ᩍ్ᱥྙʑšᨱᕽၽ⢽⦽ྜྷᇡ᳒᧲ᅕ݅޵ᬒⓑᬊᙹపᯕ⦥᫵⦽

ᔢ⫊ᯕ௝❱݉ࡹ໑ᙹᯱᬱ᮹ᙹ᫵పᨱ঑ෙŖɪݡ₦ษಉᯕ᜽ɪ

⦽ᔢ⫊ᯕ௝Ł⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ⦹ḡอᔍᬊa܆⦽ᙹᯱᬱᮡḡǍᔢᨱ

᳕ᰍ⦹۵ྜྷᵲ2.5% ᯕԕಽ⦽ᱶࡹᨕᯩᮝ໑ᯕੱ⦽ᔑᨦၽݍŝ

ࠥ᜽⪵ಽᯙ⦽ḡ⢽ᙹ᮹዁ෙᮁ⇽ಽᙹᯱᬱ⪶ᅕੱ⦽ᛞḡᦫᮡ

ᝅᱶᯕ݅(Kim and Oh, 2009). ঑௝ᕽྜྷᙹ᫵ෝݡእ⦹ʑ᭥⦽

⧕ᙹෝ ᯕᬊ⦹۵ ႊჶᨱ šᝍᯕ ༉ᦥḡŁ ᯩ݅.

ᱥ ᖙĥᱢᮝಽ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ʑᚁᮡ ⦹ᙹᰍᯕᬊŝ ޵ᇩᨕ aᰆ

ⓑᖒᰆᖙෝᅕᯕŁᯩᮝ໑, ᵲ࠺ŝḡᵲ⧕॒ᙹᯱᬱ⪶ᅕaᨕಅᬕ

ḡᩎᨱᕽ۵ ᯕၙ ᵲ᫵⦽ ᬊᙹ Ŗɪᬱᮝಽ ᯕᬊࡹŁ ᯩ݅(GWI, 2007). ⧕᫙᮹Ğᬑ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵᜽ᰆᨱݡ⦽᳑ᔍ᪡ᩑǍa⪽ၽ⦹

íḥ⧪ࡹŁᯩᮝ໑, Data BaseǍ⇶ၰƱඹa⪽ၽ⦹ᩍݕᙹ⪵

⥭௽✙᜽ᰆᨱⓑᩢ⨆ᮥӝ⊹Łᯩ݅. ⦹ḡอǎԕᨱᕽ۵⧕ᙹݕᙹ

⪵⥭௽✙ʑᚁᩑǍᨱእ⧕⧕᫙᜽ᰆᨱݡ⦽᳑ᔍᩑǍaၙ⯂⦹ᩍ

ǎԕ ʑᨦ᮹ ⧕᫙ ᜽ᰆ ḥ⇽ ḡᬱᯕ ≉᧞⦽ ᝅᱶᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵“⧕᫙ྜྷʑɝ⩥⫊ŝᬊࠥᄥ/ǎaᄥᯱᅙḡ⇽

ᱥ฾ᮥ Łಅ⦽ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ ⥭௽✙ ᜽ᰆᖒ ⠪a(2011)”᮹ ⬥ᗮ

ᩑǍಽ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎaෝᖁᱶ⦹ᩍ

ǎԕ ʑᨦ᮹⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ ⥭௽✙ ⧕᫙᜽ᰆ ḥ⇽ᮥ ⦹۵ߑฯᮡ

ࠥᬡᯕ ࢁ äᮝಽ ❱݉ࡽ݅.

2. ᩑǍႊჶ

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ᮁ฾ǎa

ᇥᕾᮥ᭥⧕bǎaᄥಽḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᩑǍ᮹ᙽᕽ۵Fig.

1 ŝ z݅. ↽᳦ᱢᯙ ḡᙹෝ ᔑᱶ⦹۵ߑ ᯩᨕᕽ ḡᙹ᮹ ᱶ᮹ ၰ

šಉࡽ ḡ⢽ෝ ᖁᱶ⦹Ł ᯕᨱ ݡ⦽ ᯱഭෝ ᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅. ᙹḲࡽ

ᯱഭෝ᫵ᗭᄥಽӹ٥ᨕᱶญ⦽⬥Delphi ʑჶᮥᯕᬊ⦽ḡ⢽᮹

ᖁᱶၰaᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. bḡ⢽ᨱݡ⧕⢽ᵡ⪵ෝᝅ⧪⦹Ł

⢽ᵡ⪵ෝÑ⊽ḡ⢽ᨱaᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹ᩍ↽᳦ḡᙹෝ☖⦽ᮁ฾ǎ aෝ ᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

2.1 ஺ඝট୨

⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵⥭௽✙⧕᫙᜽ᰆḥ⇽ŝšಉࡽḡ⢽ෝᖁᱶ⦹Ł

ᩍʑᨱݡ⦽ᯱഭෝGlobal Water Market 2008ᨱᕽᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅.

a܆⦽༉ुᯱഭෝᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅Ł۵⦹ӹḡ⢽ॅᵲᱥྙaॅᯕ

❱݉⧩ᮥ ভ Ⓧí ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၙ⊹ḡ ༜⦹۵ ḡ⢽ӹ ⪚ᮡ ᩢ⨆ᮥ

ၙ⊹۵ḡ⢽ḡอၙ⃹⡍⧉᜽┅ḡ༜⦽ḡ⢽ॅᨱݡ⧕ᕽ⪶ᯙ⦹ʑ

᭥⧕ ḡ⢽ᨱ ݡ⦽ ᖁᱶᯕ ⦥᫵⦹݅. ᯕෝ ᭥⧕ ᅙ ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵

Delphi ʑჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍḡ⢽ෝᖁᱶ⦹Łəᨱݡ⦽aᵲ⊹ෝ

đᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

2.2 Delphi ׆࣑

Delphi ʑჶᮡᱢᱩ⦽ᩩ⊂ႊჶᮥ₟ᮥᙹᨧᮥভᱥྙaॅ᮹

Ḣšᮥ࠺ᬱ⦹ᩍၙ௹ෝᩩ⊂⦹۵ႊჶᯕ݅. ᱥྙaॅ᮹ᯖ໦ᖒᮥ

☖⦽᮹čƱ⪹ᮥ☖⧕ᯝᱶ⦽ᵝᱽᨱݡ⧕ᕽၹᅖᱢᯙ⦝ऽ႒ᮥ

⦹ᩍᕽಽ᮹᮹čᮥᙹಕ⦹Ł⧊ᯝᱱᮥ₟۵ʑჶᮝಽᱥྙaॅ᮹

Ḳ݉ᱢᔍŁෝ☖⦽ၙ௹ᩩ⊂ႊჶᯕ݅. ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ᇥ᧝᮹ᱥྙa

ෝᖁᱶ⦹Ł݅݉ĥᩑǍෝḥ⧪⦹۵ߑสݡ⦽᜽eᯕ⦥᫵⦹໑

ɚ݉ᱢ᮹čᮥ⃹ญ⦹۵ߑᨕಅᬡᯕᯩḡอྙᱽෝԪᱶ⦹Ł~š

Table 1. Description of Indicators (continued)

Factors Indicators Description

Economic factors

GDP Gross domestic product GDP per capita Gross domestic product per capita Economic growth rate A rate of economic growth

Inflation Inflation rate, rate of inflation

Current account balance Except on transactions between international capital transactions, recurring transactions on the resin

Resin products Accounted for the import and export commodity trade between residents and non-residents

Export Sell GGexports of domestic goods and foreign technology

Import The foreign country in the production and processing process incoming goods through customs in this country

ǤǤǤ

ઑ୨জȵ׌ଵฅ

áᔪᨕ ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵, ⢽ᵡ⪵, ߙ❭ᯕႊჶ, ⧕᫙᜽ᰆ

² á ƇƌſƊ ƇƌƂƃƖ