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Simulation in construction Simulation in construction

4013.407Construction Technology

Moonseo Park

Assistant Professor PhD Assistant Professor, PhD

39동 433 Phone 880-5848, Fax 871-5518

E-mail: mspark@snu.ac.kr Department of Architecture

College of Engineeringg g g Seoul National University

(2)

Simulation

A set of assumptions Real-world

process concerning the behavior of a system A set of assumptions

Modeling

& Analysis

ƒ Simulation

… the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time

… to develop a set of assumptions of mathematical, logical, and symbolic relationship between the entities of interest, of the system.

… to estimate the measures of performance of the system with the simulation-generated data

ƒ Simulation modeling can be used

as an analysis tool for predicting the effect of changes to existing

(3)

Application Types pp yp

ƒ Training (flight simulation)

ƒ Entertainment (video games, virtual reality)

ƒ Decision-making (Industry)

(4)

Basic Characteristics

Inputs BLACK

BOX

Outputs BOX

Customer arrivals Customer waiting times Customer arrivals

Service times

Breakdown times

g Queue lengths

Performance measures

Breakdown times Performance measures

(5)

For dynamic systems

Si l ti d l d t t d d i t

y y

Simulation models are used to study dynamic systems - Capture/mimic the behavior of the system

- Capture/mimic the behavior of the system Examples: p a bank operations p

a call center

Mathematical programs are used to study static systems - Solve for a solution of the system

Example: a class schedule

(6)

When all else fails, simulate

If a real system cannot be studied using a model which can

,

If a real system cannot be studied using a model which can be solved analytically, we can (must?) turn to simulation models

models.

Linear Programming

Tractability

Linear Programming

Stochastic Processes

y

(solvability)

Simulation

(7)

Words of wisdom

ƒ Do not simulate unless you absolutely have to (i.e., no other technique can solve your problem).

( y )

ƒ Therefore exhaust all your options before id i i l ti

considering simulation.

(8)

Simulation Models

Simulation Models

(9)

Model of a System Model of a System yy

ƒ Model

t ti f t f th f t d i th

… a representation of a system for the purpose of studying the system

… a simplification of the systemp y

… sufficiently detailed to permit valid conclusions to be drawn about the real system

(10)

Types of Models Types of Models yp yp

ƒ Static or Dynamic Simulation Models

… Static simulation model (called Monte Carlo simulation) represents a system at a particular point in time.

… Dynamic simulation model represents systems as they change over time

Deterministic or Stochastic Simulation Models

ƒ Deterministic or Stochastic Simulation Models

… Deterministic simulation models contain no random variables and have a known set of inputs which will result in a unique set of have a known set of inputs which will result in a unique set of outputs

… Stochastic simulation model has one or more random variables as Stoc ast c s ulat o odel as o e o o e a do va ables as inputs. Random inputs lead to random outputs.

(11)

Types of Models Types of Models yp yp

ƒ Correlational Model

… The model is assessed to be valid if its output matches the “real”

… The model is assessed to be valid if its output matches the real output within some specified range of accuracy, without any

questioning of the validity of the individual relationships that exist in the model

the model

ƒ Causal-descriptive Model

… The model must not only reproduce/predict its behavior, but also explain how the behavior is generated and possibly suggest ways of explain how the behavior is generated, and possibly suggest ways of changing the existing behavior

Correlational Causal-descriptive

Type Data-driven Theory-like

Approach Black-box approach White-box approach O t t b h i

Main focus Output behavior Output behavior

Internal structure

Purpose Forecasting Forecasting Explanation

Example Time-series Regression System Dynamics

(12)

DES vs Continuous Simulation

DES vs. Continuous Simulation

(13)

Discrete model vs Continuous model Discrete model vs Continuous model Discrete model vs. Continuous model Discrete model vs. Continuous model

ƒ Discrete Event Model [Banks et al. 2000]

Th d l i hi h th t t i bl h l t di t

… The model in which the state variables change only at a discrete set of points in time

C i M d l [B k l 2000]

ƒ Continuous Model [Banks et al. 2000]

… The model in which the state variables change continuously over time

(14)

Discrete and Continuous Systems Discrete and Continuous Systems yy

ƒ Systems can be categorized as discrete or continuous.

B k di t t

… Bank : a discrete system

… The head of water behind a dam : a continuous system

(15)

Discrete model vs. Continuous model Discrete model vs. Continuous model

Executives Strategy

CD Usefulness Causal

Descriptive Manager

Tactics

CD

DES

Usefulness

Accuracy

Descriptive Model Correlational

M d l

C ti

Operation Crew DES y

Model

Discrete Continuous

System Dynamics*

Mostly used Language SLAM, ARENA, SIMAN Vensim, Stella, Dynamo

M i C Q i h / S i i S k d Fl / F d B k S

Main Concept Queuing theory / Statistics Stock and Flow / Feed-Back Structure

Focus Accuracy Behavior & Pattern

Main Concern Prediction (point) Prediction (pattern) & Explanation

Principle determinant Input data System Structure

Calculation Method Summation Integral

Lower Level Higher Level

Application Level Lower Level Operational / Tactics

Higher Level Tactics / Strategy

(16)

Why DES have been used widely?

Why DES have been used widely?

Why DES have been used widely?

Why DES have been used widely?

ƒ Construction industry has tried to reduce the complexity of construction j t b bdi idi it i t ll t di t th W k

projects by subdividing it into smaller parts according to the Work

Breakdown Structure (WBS) or the Organization Breakdown Structure (OBS)

ƒ As a result, in the construction industry, there have been much effort for Di E Si l i (DES) hi h f

Discrete Event Simulation (DES), which focuses on

… Discrete processes, rather than overall project

… Operational level, rather than Strategic levelp g

ƒ Recently, there are needs to broaden simulation focus from ‘process level’

to ‘project level’ in order to understand project behavior

… Much research is still needed to provide a simple, efficient, workable,

… Much research is still needed to provide a simple, efficient, workable, and accurate method for construction project simulation [Abourizk et al, 1992]

… Process-based simulation results should be integrated to a higher

… Process based simulation results should be integrated to a higher project level [Shi, 2001]

(17)

Analysis of Construction DES Analysis of Construction DES Analysis of Construction DES Analysis of Construction DES

ƒ Strength of DES

… Suitable for Process Level (Micro-View)

… Being used as a Productivity Improvement Analysis Tool

… Similarity to CPM/PERT methodology

… Guarantee Higher Accuracy within simple process

ƒ Weakness of DES

… Difficult to capture the Project Complexity or Ripple Effect from

i t l ti h

interrelation among each process

… Difficult to explain the real cause of deviation in detail Diffi lt t d l “ ft ” t f j t h f ti

… Difficult to model “softer” aspects of projects such as fatigue, moral, schedule pressure, and so on

(18)

Hybrid Simulation

Hybrid Simulation

(19)

System Dynamics as a complementary tool System Dynamics as a complementary tool y y y y p p y y

ƒ Advantages

… Identifies cause and effect relationships between process variables

… continuously analyzes the process behavior at every time step

Could be more responsive to a change of the process

… Could be more responsive to a change of the process environment by decreasing time step size [Park 2005]

ƒ Disadvantages

ƒ Disadvantages

… Inherently limited in representing operational details [Rodrigues and Bowers 1996]

[ od gues a d owe s 996]

… Difficult to analyze how the simulation results might be incorporated into a detailed operational management [Williams 2001]

(20)

Earthmoving Process & STROBOSCOPE Earthmoving Process & STROBOSCOPE gg

ƒ Earthmoving Process

… Considered to be an indicator to the success or failure of many

… Considered to be an indicator to the success or failure of many

construction projects as a whole, due to its labor and plant intensity [Smith et al. 2000]

… Based on this recognition, it has been studied by various sources, g , y , including

ƒ STROBOSCOPE [Martinez et al 1994]

… Regarded as a highly established construction process simulation modelg g y p

… Has been utilized in various research effort as the core simulation engine

ƒ Validation Process through comparing with STROBOSCOPEg p g

… Develop an initial process model, called ‘FIXED MODEL’, using the same process logic and simulation data as Martinez et al. (1994)

… Test whether the FIXED MODEL simulation results are highly consistent g y with STROBOSCOPE

(21)

Process Logic Process Logic gg

Nth Truck

2nd Truck 3rd Truck

1stTruck

1000m 4000m

Loading Site

Initial Haul Distance

Final Haul Distance

1000m 4000m

5000m

(22)

Process Elements Process Elements

ƒ Entity

… The items processed through the system [Harrel et al. 2003]p g y [ ]

… Earth

ƒ Resources

… The means by which activities are performed [Harrel et al 2003]

… The means by which activities are performed [Harrel et al. 2003]

… Trucks (Customers) and Loaders (Servers)

ƒ Activities

Th t k f d i th t [H l t l 2003]

… The tasks performed in the system [Harrel et al. 2003]

… Load, Haul, Dump, Return, and BackTrack

Earth Truck Loader

Earth Truck Loader

Load O O O

Haul O O X

Haul O O X

Dump O O X

(23)

Simulation Data Simulation Data

Data Row Earth-Moving Example Data

Scraper Weight Power Capacity Max Speed Cost/Hr Efficiency

1

p g p y p y

621E 299 256 10.7 51 48 80%

651E 583 410 24.5 55 103 83%

2 Fleet: Three Pushers, Two 651E scrapers, Nine 621E Scrapers 2 Fleet: Three Pushers, Two 651E scrapers, Nine 621E Scrapers 3 Pusher Cost: $55/hr – Other Costs: $200/hr

4 Earth Weight: 15.7kN/m3 – Shrinkage Factor: 0.95 Initial Haul Distance: 1000m – Final Distance: 5000m 5 Initial Haul Distance: 1000m – Final Distance: 5000m

Road Cross Section Area: 12.5m2 Rolling Resistance:3% - Grade: 2%

6 Optimum Load-time (secs) = 125*(1+0.48*Ln(0.08*Distance/Power)) Optimum Payload (bcm) = Capacity*(1+Capacity/60*Ln(Distance/5000)) Optimum Payload (bcm) = Capacity*(1+Capacity/60*Ln(Distance/5000))

7 Time to spot (secs) = Beta(24, 36, 95)

Time to load (secs) = Beta(95% Opt Time, Opt Time, 110% Opt Time) Payload = Normal (Optimum Payload, 30% Optimum Payload)

8 Boost plus transfer time (secs) = 15

Backtrack time (secs) = 40% of Optimum load-time

9 Actual haul time (secs) = Normal (Theoretic, 25% Theoretic) 10 Dump Time (secs) = Beta(24, 36, 78)

11 Actual return time (secs) = Normal (Theoretic, 15% Theoretic)

(24)

NumberOfTrucks

TravelDistance +

EarthMoved +

TravelTime

LoaderUtilization +

+

+ +

TruckAvailability TruckUtilization

-

TruckUtilization +

-

NumberOf Loaders AvailabilityGap

+

(25)

Process Dynamics in Earthmoving Process Dynamics in Earthmoving y y g g

Without Managerial Action With Managerial Action

Without Managerial Action With Managerial Action

(a) Truck Availability > Loader Availability (b) Truck Availability < Loader Availability (c) Truck Availability ≈ Loader Availability

EarthMoved +

TravelDistance NumberOfTrucks

+

+ +

EarthMoved +

TravelDistance NumberOfTrucks NeedsFor

AdditionalTruck

+

+ +

+

+ -

EarthMoved +

TravelDistance NumberOfTrucks

+

+

TravelTime

TruckAvailability

TruckUtilizatio n

LoaderUtilization +

-

+ -

+

+ +

NumberOf Loaders

TravelTime

TruckAvailability

TruckUtilization

LoaderUtilization +

-

+ +

-

+ +

NumberOf Loaders TravelTime

TruckAvailability

NumberOf Loaders TruckUtilization

LoaderUtilization +

-

+ +

-

+ +

LoaderAvailability

LoaderCycleTime AvailabilityGap

+

-

+ + LoaderAvailability

LoaderCycleTime AvailabilityGap

+

- + -

LoaderAvailability

LoaderCycleTime AvailabilityGap

- + -

+

TruckAvailability = NumberOfTrucks / TruckCycleTime TruckAvailability = NumberOfTrucks / TruckCycleTime LoaderAvailability = NumberOfLoaders / LoaderCycleTime

TruckUtilizaiton = Min(TruckAvailability LoaderAvailability) / TruckAvailability TruckUtilizaiton = Min(TruckAvailability, LoaderAvailability) / TruckAvailability LoaderUtilization = Min(TruckAvailability, LoaderAvailability) / LoaderAvailability

(26)

Reference Mode for process behavior Reference Mode for process behavior p p

ƒ A reference mode is the expected patterns of key variables over time which can be deduced from process structure

time, which can be deduced from process structure

ƒ It is developed to give clues to appropriate model structure and check plausibility once the model is built [Stephanie 1997]

(a) Fixed Model (No Managerial Action) (b) Evolving Model (Managerial Action)

ion ion

Truck Utilization Loader Utilization

Truck Utilization Loader Utilization

Utilizati Utilizati

(27)

Process Hybrid Simulation Model Process Hybrid Simulation Model yy

Bk

DES Modeling Scheme 3D Product Modeling SD Modeling Scheme

TrackingBack

PS1 PS2

PS3 ER1

SC3

ER3 SC1

Mvd Erth Bk

Track Pshrs

Scrpr s

Load Haul Dump

Return SC2

ER2

SC4 SC5

Earth Moved Earth

Hauled Earth

Loaded Earth

Hauling

Earth Dumping

TruckStan

dingBy TruckArri

vedAtSite TruckFinis

hingDump Truck

Completin gLoad Loader Completin gLoad LoaderSta

ndingBy

Resource Utilization Index

BeingLoaded

Returning

Dumping Loading

g

Hauling

Haul Distance

Earth Loading

E thL d d

u #

LoaderQueue

C

# u

D Load u #

Eqn

Distance Distance

L dTi TruckTypeA

HaulTime

BkTrackTime D Ti

A1-3

A1-3 S

DS u

Batch

u #

EarthToMove

R

Q1-Q3 Unbatch

C

# u

D Haul

C

# u

D Dump

R

Q1-Q3 Unbatch C

# u

D BackTrack

# 5552 Exit

# u

ReturnLoader ReturnLoader

A1-A5 P

Check

R S

C

EarthMoved E thL d d

u #

LoaderQueue

C

# u

D Load u #

Eqn

Distance Distance

L dTi TruckTypeA

HaulTime

BkTrackTime D Ti

A1-3

A1-3 S

DS u

Batch

u #

EarthToMove

R

Q1-Q3 Unbatch

C

# u

D Haul

C

# u

D Dump

R

Q1-Q3 Unbatch C

# u

D BackTrack

# 5552 Exit

# u

ReturnLoader ReturnLoader

A1-A5 P

Check

R S

C

EarthMoved

Hybrid DES & SD Process Model

EarthLoaded

L w p

R p TruckQueue

TruckTypeB u #

TruckTypeB TruckTypeA

Merge

Type

LoadTime HaulTime

ReturnTime BkTrackTime

A1-A5 P

Check

Y N

?

Divide

TruckTypeA

A1-A5 P

Check

DumpTime AdditionalTruck

C D Return

Load BackTrack Haul Dump Return

EarthLoaded

L w p

R p TruckQueue

TruckTypeB u #

TruckTypeB TruckTypeA

Merge

Type

LoadTime HaulTime

ReturnTime BkTrackTime

A1-A5 P

Check

Y N

?

Divide

TruckTypeA

A1-A5 P

Check

DumpTime AdditionalTruck

C D Return

Load BackTrack Haul Dump Return

Real World Process Observation

The process model was develped using EXTENDTM [Iamginethat Inc. 2001]

Simulation clock was modified to update process variables p p at not only every event time but also constant time step

(28)

Fixed Model Validation Fixed Model Validation

ƒ For validating purpose, the fixed model will be first compared with STROBOSCOPE (Martinez et al 1994) under various simulation

STROBOSCOPE (Martinez et al. 1994) under various simulation contexts such as

… no resource constraint

… deterministic settings

… stochastic environments

ƒ No Resource Constraint Model

L d STROBOSCOPE Fi d M d l C i

Loader STROBOSCOPE Fixed Model Comparison

(29)

Comparison with STROBOSCOPE Comparison with STROBOSCOPE p p

ƒ Deterministic Model

Loader-Truck

STROBOSCOPE Fixed Model Comparison

Duration Total Cost Duration Total Cost Time Ratio Cost Ratio

5 219.19 132,609 219.17 132,598 0.9999 0.9999

6 182.67 119,281 182.65 119,271 0.9999 0.9999

7 156.58 109,762 156.57 109,756 0.9999 0.9999

8 136.99 102,609 137.01 102,621 1.0001 1.0001

9 122 93 97 977 123 01 98 039 1 0007 1 0006

9 122.93 97,977 123.01 98,039 1.0007 1.0006

10 113.29 95,729 113.34 95,772 1.0004 1.0004

11 106 83 95 403 106 88 95 444 1 0005 1 0004

11 106.83 95,403 106.88 95,444 1.0005 1.0004

12 102.81 96,748 102.88 96,810 1.0007 1.0006

13 100.79 99,681, 100.83 99,721, 1.0004 1.0004

Optimal truck number is 11 when 3 loaders are allocated

(30)

Comparison with STROBOSCOPE Comparison with STROBOSCOPE p p

ƒ Stochastic Model

… 1,000 simulation runs with random seeds

STROBOSCOPE Fixed Model Comparison

Duration Cost Duration Cost Duration Cost Duration Cost Duration Cost Duration Cost

Mean 109.98 98,197 109.94 98,177 0.9997 0.9998 Standard Deviation 0.47 410 0.49 436 1.0396 1.0639

Min 108 92 97 265 108 99 97 328 1 0006 1 0006 Min 108.92 97,265 108.99 97,328 1.0006 1.0006

Max 111.06 99,172 111.11 99,221 1.0005 1.0005

Median 109.96 98,195 109.92 98,159 0.9996 0.9996

… Chi-Square Test

{ No statical evidence showing the difference

between two simulation models with a confidential between two simulation models with a confidential level of 95%

(31)

Evolving Model Simulation Evolving Model Simulation gg

ƒ EVOLVING Model

B d th FIXED d l

… Based on the FIXED model

… Incorporate managerial action process

… Adjust truck number for process performance enhancement in

… Adjust truck number for process performance enhancement in the earthmoving example

… Using Response Surface Methodology, examine the effect of two i d i i f t

main decision factors

{ Initial Truck Allocation

{ Adjustment Delay

{ Adjustment Delay

… Judge the effectiveness of managerial actions by measuring the improvement from the optimal performance which is generated f th FIXED d l

from the FIXED model

… Deduce strategical lesson from the simulation results

… Represent operational details for taking a proper managerial

… Represent operational details for taking a proper managerial actions

(32)

Schedule Performance Schedule Performance

Duration (Hr) The schedule performance gets better with

shorter delay and more initial truck

115

120 shorter delay and more initial truck

Simulation results indicate that when one of the decision factors gets worse, the

h h h

105

110 sensitivity of the other factor on the

schedule performance gets bigger

95 100

24

13

0 4

8 12

16 20

6 5 8 7

10 9 12 11

90

Initial Truck Number Adjustment Delay (Hr)

Thus, to ameliorate schedule performance, a

(33)

Cost Performance Cost Performance

Cost ($)

The cost performance produces a convex curve in terms of initial truck number

98000 100000 102000

curve in terms of initial truck number

because redundant trucks will cause idling cost and deficient trucks will interrupt the process and thus worse the cost

94000 96000

performance

The cost performance also produces a

convex curve in terms of adjustment delay.

0 88000

90000

92000 convex curve in terms of adjustment delay.

Contrary to a general perception that the shorter the adjustment delay, the better cost performance can be obtained, the

i l i l h h h i

0 4

8

12 16 20

24 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 86000

Adjustment Delay (Hr)

Initial Truck Number

simulation results show that there is a certain threshold that gives a maximum cost performance.

Therefore, a construction manager should pay attention to find an optimal delay size pay attention to find an optimal delay size,

not to reduce it as much as possible

(34)

Simulation results and Reference Mode Simulation results and Reference Mode

Fixed Model (w/o Managerial Action) Evolving Model (with Managerial Action)

Truck Utilization Loader Utilization

Truck Utilization Loader Utilization

Mode Utilization Utilization

Reference M

Time (Hr) Time (Hr) Schedule

Compression

R

3250 3500 3750 4000 4250 4500 4750 5000

0 95625 0.9625 0.96875 0.975 0.98125 0.9875 0.99375 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1

2 2 2 2 2 2 1

2 2

2 2

2 3 2

3 3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

3250 3500 3750 4000 4250 4500 4750 5000

0 95625 0.9625 0.96875 0.975 0.98125 0.9875 0.99375 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 2 1

22 2 2

2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

3 3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Truck U ili i

Truck Utilization

Loader Utilization

Results

2500 2750 3000 3250

0.9375 0.94375 0.95 0.95625

1 1

1 2

2 2 3

3

2500 2750 3000 3250

0.9375 0.94375 0.95 0.95625

1 1

1 1 23

Utilization Loader

Utilization

R

(35)

Enhancement of Process Performance Enhancement of Process Performance

Fixed Model Evolving Model Comparison

# of Loaders 3 3 -

# of initial trucks 11 8 -

# of final trucks 11 14 -

# of final trucks 11 14

Truck Adjustment No Yes -

Adjustment Delay N/A 10 hr -

Duration 106 88 hr 101 93 hr 4 59%

Duration 106.88 hr 101.93 hr -4.59%

Cost $ 95,444 $ 91,155 -4.45%

3500 3750 4000 4250 4500 4750 5000

0.9625 0.96875 0.975 0.98125 0.9875 0.99375 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

2 2 2 2 2 2 1

2 2

2 2 3 2

3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

3500 3750 4000 4250 4500 4750 5000

0.9625 0.96875 0.975 0.98125 0.9875 0.99375 1

1 1

1 1

1 1 2 1

22 2 2

2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

3 3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250

0.9125 0.91875 0.925 0.93125 0.9375 0.94375 0.95 0.95625

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 2

2 2

3 3

3 3

3

1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250

0.9125 0.91875 0.925 0.93125 0.9375 0.94375 0.95 0.95625

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

2 2 2

3 3

0 13.35963 26.71927 40.0789 53.43853 66.79816 80.1578 93.51743 106.8771

1000 1250

Time

0.9 0.90625 1

1

3 0 12.74115 25.4823 38.22345 50.9646 63.70575 76.4469 89.18805 101.9292

1000 1250

Time

0.9 0.90625 1

1 3

(36)

Hypothesis Test Hypothesis Test yp yp

ƒ Managerial action will enhance the process performance

… Performance of EVOLVING model > Performance of FIXED model

… Performance of EVOLVING model > Performance of FIXED model

ƒ Pure SD model will underestimate the process performance due to its continuous feature

… Performance of pure SD model > Performance of EVOLVING model

… Performance of pure SD model Performance of EVOLVING model

ƒ Connecting above two argument

… Hypothesis; Fp < Ep < Sp

where Fp = performance of FIXED model Ep = perfomance of where Fp performance of FIXED model, Ep perfomance of EVOLVING model, Sp = Performance of pure SD model

FIXED model Pure SD model Evolving model Initial Configuration (Loader-Truck) 3-11 3-8 3-8

Truck Adjusting No Yes Yes

Timing of Managerial Actiong o ge c o N/AN/ ContinuousCo uous Discretesc e e Schedule Performance (Hour) 106.83 100.43 101.93

(37)

Reverse Calculation using FIXED model Reverse Calculation using FIXED model gg

ƒ The main difference between FIXED model and EVOLVING model is

… Evolving model can generates when and how much additional truck will

… Evolving model can generates when and how much additional truck will be assigned to the process

… While Fixed model can’t

ƒ Fixed model is validated through comparing with a highly established model Fixed model is validated through comparing with a highly established model under various contexts

ƒ For validation purpose, the Fixed model was simulated with details for

managerial actions (when and how much additional truck should be assigned generated from Evolving model)

ƒ The Fixed model simulation results with details for managerial actions and those of the Evolving model generate exactly same performance

16 Plotter DiscreteEvent 1 17 16 Plotter DiscreteEvent 1 1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 Plotter, DiscreteEvent

1.03875 1.0575 1.07625 1.095 1.11375 1.1325 1.15125 1.17

1 1 1 1 1 1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 Plotter, DiscreteEvent

1.03875 1.0575 1.07625 1.095 1.11375 1.1325 1.15125 1.17

1 1 1 1 1 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0.88875 0.9075 0.92625 0.945 0.96375 0.9825 1.00125

1 1.02

2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 3

2 2

2 2

2 2 3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0.88875 0.9075 0.92625 0.945 0.96375 0.9825 1.00125

1 1.02

2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 3

2 2

2 2

2 2 3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

0 12.74115 25.4823 38.22345 50.9646 63.70575 76.4469 89.18805101.9292 0

Time

2 0.87

0 12.74115 25.4823 38.22345 50.9646 63.70575 76.4469 89.18805101.9292 0

Time

2 0.87

Fixed model Simulation Result

Evolving model Simulation Result

(38)

Reference Reference

ƒ Park, M. and Peña-Mora, F. (2003). “Dynamic change management for construction:

introducing the change cycle into model-based project management.” System Dynamics g g y p j g y y Review, Volume 19, Issue 3 , Pages 213 - 242

ƒ Peña-Mora, F and Park, M (2001). “Dynamic Planning for Fast-Tracking Building Construction Projects.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Volume 127, Issue 6, pp.

445-456 445 456

ƒ Raffo, D. and Harrison, W. (2004). “Combining Process Feedback with Discrete Event

Simulation Models to Support Software Project Management.” Software Evolution, John Wiley

& Sons, Inc., New York.

R d i A d B J (1996) “S t d i i j t t ti

ƒ Rodrigues, A. and Bowers, J. (1996). “System dynamics in project management: a comparative analysis with traditional methods.” System Dynamics Review, Volume 12, Issue 2, pp.121-139.

ƒ Shi, J. and AbouRizk, S. (1998). “Continuous and Combined Event-Process Models for Simulating Pipeline Construction.” Journal of Construction Management and Economics, Volume 16, PP. 489-498.

ƒ Smith, S. D., Osbourne, J. R., and Forde, M.C. (1995). “Analysis of earthmoving systems using discrete-event simulation.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Volume 121, Issue 4, pp. 388-396., pp

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ƒ DISCRETE-EVENT SYSTEM SIMULATION Jerry Banks • John S. Carson II Barry L. Nelson • David M.

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