401.661 Advanced Construction Technology
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Moonseo Park
39동 433 Phone 880-5848, Fax 871-5518 E-mail: mspark@snu.ac.kr Department of Architecture College of Engineering Seoul National University Professor, PhD
Where Did the Gasoline Go?
Identifying Stock & Flow Structure
401.661 Advanced Construction Technology
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Lecture Outline
§ Contribution of Stocks to Dynamics
§ Identifying Stock and Flow Structures
§ Mapping Stock and Flow Structures
§ Where did the gasoline go?
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Characterize the state of the system
§ Pilot: aircraft’s position,
heading, altitude, fuel level
§ Firm: order backlog,
inventory stocks, labor force
§ Balance sheet: cash,
inventory, payables, debt
Provide decision-makers with the basis for actions
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Provide systems with inertia and memory
Stocks accumulate past events.
§ Lead in the paint of housing remains high (banned in
1978).
§ Ozone-destroying chloride by CFC will remain for decades.
§ Beliefs persist over time, generating inertia and
continuity in attitude and
behavior.
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The source of delays
A delay is a process whose output lags behind its input. The difference between the input and output
accumulated in a stock of material in process
Mail in Post Office
Posting Delivery
Proposed Buildings
Buildings under Construction Decision to
Develop Start
Construction
Occupancy
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Create disequilibrium dynamics
Stocks absorb the differences between inflows and outflows, permitting them to differ. As a result, disequilibrium is the rule rather than the exception.
§ What if there is no buffer or stock?
§ Whenever controlled by different decision makers, subject to random shocks, a buffer or stock must exist.
§ Whether/how equilibrium is achieved is an emergent
property of a system.
Stockpiling grain during the 7 good years
Grain in Inventory
Planting Consumption
Market Prices
Inventory Conditions
Availability
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Lecture Outline
ü Contribution of Stocks to Dynamics
§ Identifying Stock and Flow Structures
§ Mapping Stock and Flow Structures
§ Where did the gasoline go?
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By units of measure
Items Stocks Flows Units
Company sales Phone calls on hold Workers
GDP
Cash flow
On-going projects
Greenhouse gas emissions Price of product
Employee morale Depreciation
Construction work quality
√ $/year
√ calls
√ persons
√
$/year
√ $/year
√ units √ tons/year
√ $/unit
√ level
√ %/year √ level
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The Snapshot Test
Population (people) Birth Rate
(people/year)
Death Rate (people/year)
Debt ($) Borrowing
($/year)
Repayment ($/year)
Expected Customer Order
(widgets/week) Change in Expected
Oder Rate (widgets/week/week)
*Actual Customer Order:
a stock or flow?
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Lecture Outline
ü Contribution of Stocks to Dynamics
ü Identifying Stock and Flow Structures
§ Mapping Stock and Flow Structures
§ Where did the gasoline go?
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Conservation of Material in S&F
Students in Admission DOA
DOA Alumni Graduation
Fail Students in
Army
Entering Army Discharged from Army
Information about Students in DOA
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State-Determined Systems
Systems evolve by feedbacks of information from the state of the system to the flows, which
in turn alter the states.
.
State of the System Net Rate of
Change
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State Variables
State variables including constants (endogenous, exogenous) determine rates.
S1
S2 Exogenous
Constant 1
Constant 1
Constant 2
System Boundary
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Examples
Students in Admission DOA
DOA Alumni Graduation
Fail Students in
Army
Entering Army Discharged from Army
Graduation Ratio
Failure Ratio
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Auxiliary Variables
For easy communication and clarity, it is often helpful to define intermediate or auxiliary variables, which consist
of functions of stocks (and state variables).
Population Net Birth Rate
Food + ?
Incorrect Correct
Population Net Birth Rate
Food per Capita
Food Fractional Birth
Rate
-
+ +
+ + R
B
R: more people, more births, more people B: more people, less food per person, lower
fractional net birth rate, fewer births)
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Stocks change only thru their rates
No causal links are allowed directly linked into a stock.
Customers Waiting for Service Customer Arrival
Rate
Customer Departure Rate
Workweek
Service Staff
Productivity +
+
- - -
Customers Waiting for Service Customer Arrival
Rate
Customer Departure Rate Workweek
Service Staff
Productivity +
+ +
+ +
Incorrect
Correct
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When to show S&F Structures?
When representing physical processes, delays, or stocks whose behaviors are important in the dynamics
you seek to explain.
S&F
CLD
Work in Process Inventory
Finished Inventory Production Start
Rate
Production
Completion Rate Shipment Rate
Production start
Rate Work in Process Inventory
Production
Completion Rate Finished Inventory Shipment Rate
+ - + -
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Aggregation & Disaggregation
Appropriate level of aggregation should be decided depending on modeling purposes.
Work in Process Inventory
Finished Inventory Production Start
Rate
Production
Completion Rate Shipment Rate
Parts in Process
Finished Inventory Production
Start Rate
Shipment Rate Assemblies in
Process
Product in Testing Assembly
Start Rate
Test Satrt Rate
Production Completion Rate
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Challenging the clouds
Set the model
boundary based on modeling purpose and scope.
WIP
Finished Inventory
Production Start Rate
Shipment Rate Production Completion Rate
Source: Unlimited supply of material
Sink: Unlimited
Absorption capacity
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Lecture Outline
ü Contribution of Stocks to Dynamics
ü Identifying Stock and Flow Structures
ü Mapping Stock and Flow Structures
§ Where did the gasoline go?
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Where did the gasoline go?
NO GAS
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Station Tanks Gas in Cars Gas in
Individual Storages Delivery
Rate Sales Rate Hoarding
Rate Combustion
Rate
Shortfall
Anxiety for Shortfall Demand
+ +
+ +
Government Control
-
Media Effect+ + -
+ +
-
Drivers, remembering
the fist oil embargo in 1973, and worry that they will not be able to get their tanks fill, begin to demand more. The abrupt increase in demand triggers the momentary shortfall, which again increases people’s anxiety and makes
people demand more.
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The more anxiety people
have the more gas people hoard in their storage, which makes the situation worse.
Gas in Service
Station Tanks Gas in Cars Gas in
Individual Storages Delivery
Rate
Sales Rate Hoarding
Rate Combustion
Rate
Shortfall
Anxiety for Shortfall Demand
+ +
+ +
Government Control
-
Media Effect+ + -
+ +
-
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Furthermore,
the media makes the situation worse.
Gas in Service
Station Tanks Gas in Cars Gas in
Individual Storages Delivery
Rate Sales Rate Hoarding
Rate Combustion
Rate
Shortfall
Anxiety for Shortfall Demand
+ +
+ +
Government Control
-
Media Effect+ + -
+ +
-
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As a result,
the gas went to individual storage….
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The government’s policies
employed to cope with this situation failed to ease the shortage making it worse.
Gas in Service
Station Tanks Gas in Cars Gas in
Individual Storages Delivery
Rate Sales Rate Hoarding
Rate Combustion
Rate
Shortfall
Anxiety for Shortfall Demand
+ +
+ +
Government Control
-
Media Effect+ + -
+ +
-
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Then, how to easy people’s anxiety?
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References
§ Avraham Shtub, Jonathan F. Bard, Shlomo Globerson, “Project management : engineering, technology, and implementation”, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice Hall, 1994
§ Frederick E. Gould, Nancy Joyce, Chapter 8, “Construction project management”, Upper Saddle River, NJ, Prentice Hall, 1999
§ James M. Lyneis *, Kenneth G. Cooper, Sharon A. Els, “Strategic management of complex projects: a case study using system dynamics”, System Dynamics Review, Vol. 17, No. 3, 2001
§ Christopher M. Gordon, “Choosing appropriate construction contracting method”, J. of Construction Engineering & Management, Vol. 120, No. 1, 1994
§ Feniosky Pena-Mora, Jim Lyneis, “Project control and management”, MIT 1.432J Lecture Material, 1998
§ Barrie, D.S., and Paulson, B.C., “Professional Construction Management”, McGraw Hill, 1992
§ Halpin, D.W., “Financial and Cost concepts for construction management”, John Wiley & Sons, 1995
§ Yehiel Rosenfeld, “Project Management”, MIT 1.401J Course Material, 2000
§ Sarah Slaughter, “Innovation in construction”, MIT 1.420 Course Material, 1999
§ Gray and Hughes, “Building Design Management”,.
§ Murdoch and Hughes, “Construction Contracts: Law and Management”, E&FN SPON, 1996
§ Gray, Hughes and Bennett, “The Successful Management of Design”, Reading, 1994
§ Sterman, J., “Business Dynamics”, Mcgraw-Hill, 2000