Suggestion of Corona Virus Infection Data-based Simulation Model Update Method

䆪

䆪⪲⋮

⹪㧊⩂㓺 䢫㰚㧦 ◆㧊䎆 ₆⹮ 㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮ ⳾◎

䞯㔋

⹿

⹿⻫

㩲

㩲㞞

[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

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Suggestion of Corona Virus Infection Data-based Simulation

Model Update Method

Mi Jang*, Bok-Ju Lee**, Bong-Gu Kang***, Kyung-Min Seo****

*School of Energy Materials and Chemical Engineering, Korea University of Technology and Education **School of Computer Science and Engineering, Korea University of Technology and Education

***Korea Institute of Industrial Technology

****Dept. of Future Technology, Korea University of Technology and Education

殚 檃檃 䆪⪲⋮Ṧ㡒-19, ㌂㓺, Ⲫ⯊㓺 ❇ ⹪㧊⩂㓺㎇ 㰞⼧㧊 㩚㎎Ἒ㩗㦒⪲ 䢫㌆♮㠊 Ⱔ㦖 㧎ῂṖ Ṧ㡒♮ 㠊 㢪┺. ⹪㧊⩂㓺㎇ 㰞⼧㦮 䢫㌆ 㡞䁷 ⹥ 㫛ἆ㦚 㥚䟊 㔺㩲 Ṧ㡒㧦 ◆㧊䎆⯒ ₆⹮㦒⪲ 䞲 㔲⸂⩞ 㧊㎮ 㡆ῂ⓪ ⹮✲㔲 䞚㣪䞮┺. ⽎ 㡆ῂ⓪ 㰖㡃 ⌊ 䋊⩂㓺䎆 Ṧ㡒 㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮㦚 㥚䞲 ⹪㧊⩂㓺 Ṧ㡒 ⳾◎㦚 㩲㞞䞲┺. 㩲㞞䞮⓪ ⳾◎㦖 㡂⩂ Ṳ㦮 ㎖⪲ ῂ㎇♮㠊 㧞㦒Ⳇ, ṗ ㎖㦖 ῆ㰧㦚 䚲䡚䞮ἶ 㧞 ┺. ⽎ ⏒ⶎ㠦㍲ 㩲㞞䞲 ⳾◎㦖 㔺㩲 ◆㧊䎆⯒ ₆⹮㦒⪲ 䞮㡂 㩫䢫☚Ṗ ⏨㦒Ⳇ, 㧊⯒ ⹪䌫㦒⪲ 䟻䤚 㰖㡃㦮 䔏㎇㦚 ⹮㡗䞲 㩚䕢 㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮ 䢏㦖 㰖㡃 Ṛ㦮 㩚䕢⯒ 㡞㌗䞮⓪ 㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮㦮 ₆㽞⪲ ㌂㣿 ♶ 㑮 㧞┺. ࣭࣪ 昢嵦ࣜ 㩚㎎Ἒ㩗㦒⪲ٻ 䆪⪲⋮Ṧ㡒ڈڌڔ 㦮ٻ 㥶䟟㧊ٻ 㰖㏣㩗㦒⪲ٻ 䢫㌆♮ἶٻ㧞┺ډٻ㭧ῃٻ㧊㣎㦮ٻ㰖㡃㠦㍲⓪ٻ䆪⪲⋮Ṧ㡒ڈ ڌڔ ⪲ٻ 㧎䞲ٻ ㌂ⰳ⮶㧊ٻ ⌄㞚ٻ ῃ⹒ٻ Ịṫ㠦ٻ ⹎䂮⓪ٻ 㡗䟻 㧊ٻ䋂㰖ٻ㞠㦚ٻộ㧊⧒ἶٻ䕦┾䟞㦒⋮ڇٻ╖ῂബἓ⿗ٻ㰖㡃 㠦㍲ٻ ڎڌ ⻞㱎ٻ 䢫㰚㧦ٻ ⹲㌳ٻ 㧊䤚ٻ 㡞㌗䞮㰖ٻ ⴑ䞲ٻ 䋊⩂ 㓺䎆ٻṦ㡒㧊ٻ⹲㌳䞮Ⳋ㍲ٻ㌗䢿㧊ٻ ⼖䞮㡖┺ډٻ⁎ٻἆὒٻ 䆪⪲⋮Ṧ㡒ڈڌڔٻ 㥶䟟㦮ٻ 㫛ἆٻ 㔲㩦㦚ٻ 㩫䢫䞮Ợٻ 㡞䁷䞮 ₆ٻ㠊⩺㤢㪢㦒Ⳇڇٻ䔏㩫ٻ㰧┾㠦㍲ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ㑮Ṗٻ䙃❇䞮 ⓪ٻ䡚㨂㢖ٻṯ㦖ٻ㌗䢿㠦㍲⓪ٻ㿪㧊⯒ٻ㡞䁷䞮⓪ٻộ㧊ٻ⿞ Ṗ⓻䞮┺ڶڌڸډٻ 䆪⪲⋮Ṧ㡒ڈڌڔٻ ⹲㌳ٻ 㧊㩚㠦☚ٻ ㌂㓺ڇٻ Ⲫ⯊㓺ٻ ❇ὒٻ ṯ㦖ٻ⹪㧊⩂㓺㎇ٻ㰞䢮㦮ٻ㩚䕢㠦ٻ╖䟊ٻⰤ㦖ٻ◆㧊䎆ٻ₆ ⹮㦮ٻ⿚㍳㧊ٻ㧊⬾㠊㪢┺ډٻ◆㧊䎆ٻ₆⹮㦮ٻ⳾◎㦮ٻἓ㤆ٻ 㔺㩲⪲ٻ 㩲Ὃ♲ٻ ◆㧊䎆Ṗٻ ⹪䌫㧊ٻ ♮⸖⪲ٻ 㩫䢫䞲ٻ ⿚㍳ 㧊ٻ Ṗ⓻䞮┺⓪ٻ 㧻㩦㧊ٻ 㧞┺ډٻ ⽎ٻ 㡆ῂ⓪ٻ 㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮ٻ ⳾◎㦚ٻῂ㎇㦚ٻ㥚䞲ٻ㧊㩚ٻὒ㩫㦒⪲㍲ٻ㔺㩲ٻ⹲㌳䞲ٻ㧒 ⼚ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ㑮ٻ◆㧊䎆⯒ٻ⹪䌫㦒⪲ٻ⹪㧊⩂㓺ٻ㩚䕢ٻ⳾◎ 㦚ٻ ㍺Ἒ䞮㡖┺ډٻ ㈦Ⱒٻ 㞚┞⧒ٻ 䋊⩂㓺䎆ٻ Ṧ㡒㠦ٻ ╖䞲ٻ 䚲䡚㧊ٻṖ⓻䞮☚⪳ٻṗٻ䟟㩫ῂ㡃㦚ٻ㎖⪲ٻ⋮䌖⌊ἶڇٻṗٻ ㎖㦮ٻ⌊⿖㠦ٻῆ㰧ٻ䚲䡚䞮㡖┺ډٻ ⽎ٻ㡆ῂ㠦㍲ٻ㩲㔲䞲ٻ⳾◎㦚ٻ䐋䟊ٻ㰖㡃ٻ⌊ٻ䋊⩂㓺䎆ٻ Ṧ㡒㦮ٻ㿪㧊⯒ٻ 㡞䁷䞶ٻ 㑮ٻ 㧞Ợٻ♲┺ډٻ䡚㨂ٻ⳾◎㠦㍲ ⓪ٻ ṗٻ ㎖㦚ٻ 㧒⹮䢪䞮㡂ٻ 䚲䡚䞮㡖㦒⋮ڇٻ 㿪䤚ٻ 㰚䟟♶ٻ 㡆ῂ㠦㍲⓪ٻ ṗٻ ㎖㠦ٻ㧎ῂٻ ⹖☚ڇٻ┾㼊ٻ㔲㍺㦮ٻṲ㑮㢖ٻ ṯ㦖ٻ㰖㡃㩗ٻ䔏㎇㦚ٻ⹮㡗䞮㡂ٻ▪ٻ䡚㔺㩗㧎ٻ㩚䕢ٻ⳾◎ 㦮ٻῂ䡚㧊ٻṖ⓻䟊㰞ٻộ㧊┺ډٻ⡦⓪ٻ㰖㡃ٻ Ṛ㦮ٻ㡆ἆ㦚ٻ 䐋䟊ٻ⍩㦖ٻ⻪㥚㠦ٻ╖䞲ٻ⿚㍳㧊ٻṖ⓻䞶ٻộ㦒⪲ٻ⽊㧎┺ډ ࣮࣪ 微塾ࣜ昪凊ࣜࣜ ࣮࣭࣪ࣜ柢喞庲欪ࣜ把昣ࣜࣜ ⳾◎ٻ㍺Ἒ㠦ٻ㞴㍲ٻ⹪㧊⩂㓺ٻ㩚䕢ٻ㔲⋮Ⰲ㡺ٻ⿚㍳㦚ٻ 㥚䟊ٻ㍶㩫䞲ٻ㰖㡃㦖ٻṖ㧻ٻⰤ㦖ٻṦ㡒㧦Ṗٻ⹲㌳䞲ٻ╖ῂ ὧ㡃㔲㧊┺ډٻ⁎Ⱂٻڌ 㦖ٻ㔺㩲ٻ╖ῂ㠦㍲ٻ⹲㌳䞲ٻ㧒⼚ٻ㔶 ′ٻ 䢫㰚㧦㦮ٻ 㑮⯒ٻ ⋮䌖⌎ٻ 䚲㧊┺ډٻ 㰞⼧ὖⰂ⽎⿖㠦㍲ٻ ⹲䚲䞲ٻ ⹪㠦ٻ ➆⯊Ⳋٻ ╖ῂὧ㡃㔲㠦㍲ٻ ڍ 㤪ٻ ڌړ 㧒ٻ 㻮㦢ٻ ڌ ⳛ㦮ٻ 䢫㰚㧦Ṗٻ ⹲㌳䞮㡖┺ډٻ 䢫㰚㧦ٻ ⹲㌳ٻ 㼁⋶⿖䎆ٻ ڏڋ 㧒㧊ٻ㰖⋲ٻڎ 㤪ٻڍړ 㧒₢㰖㦮ٻ㧒⼚ٻ㔶′ٻ䢫㰚㧦ٻ㿪㧊 ⯒ٻ㌊䘊⽊Ⳋٻڌڍ 㧒㱎㠦ٻ䢫㰚ٻ䕦㩫㦚ٻ⹱㦖ٻ㌂⧢㧊ٻڒڏڌ

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ⳛ㦒⪲ٻṖ㧻ٻ⏨㞮┺ډٻڌڍ 㧒㱎⯒ٻ₆㭖㦒⪲ٻ㧊㩚㠦⓪ٻ㔶 ′ٻ 䢫㰚㧦㦮ٻ 㑮Ṗٻ 㩦㩦ٻ 㯳Ṗ䞮㡂ٻ ⹪㧊⩂㓺Ṗٻ Ṧ㡒㧊ٻ 䢫㌆♮⓪ٻ㿪㎎㡖㦒Ⳇڇٻ⁎ٻ㧊䤚㠦⓪ٻ㩦㹾ٻ䢫㰚㧦㦮ٻ㑮 Ṗٻ 㭚㠊✺㠊ٻ ⹪㧊⩂㓺ٻ Ṧ㡒㧊ٻ 㰚㩫♮⓪ٻ ἓ䟻㦚ٻ 䢫㧎 䞶ٻ㑮ٻ㧞┺ډٻ⽎ٻ ⏒ⶎ㠦㍲⓪ٻ㌗⹮♮⓪ٻἓ䟻㦚ٻ⽊㧊⓪ٻ ⚦ٻ㔲₆⯒ٻṗṗٻ䢫㌆₆㢖ٻ㰚㩫₆⪲ٻῂ⿚䞮㡖┺ډٻ ڃ⁎Ⱂٻڌڄٻ╖ῂٻὧ㡃㔲ٻ㧒⼚ٻ䢫㰚㧦ٻ㑮ٻ䡚䢿ٻ ٻڍڋڍڋ ⎚ٻ ڍ 㤪ٻ 䟟㩫㞞㩚⿖㠦㍲ٻ ⹲䚲䞲ٻ ڦڪڮڤڮ 㠦ٻ ➆ ⯊Ⳋٻ╖ῂὧ㡃㔲⓪ٻ㽳ٻڍڋڏ Ṳ㦮ٻ䟟㩫ῂ㡃ڃ㦣ڇٻⳊڇٻ☯ڄ 㦒⪲ٻ㧊⬾㠊㪎ٻ㧞㦒Ⳇڇٻ㟓ٻڍڏڎ Ⱒٻڍ 㻲ⳛ㧊ٻỆ㭒ٻ㭧㧊 ┺ډٻ⳾✶ٻῂ㎇㤦㦚ٻ䞮⋮㦮ٻ⳾◎⪲ٻṚ㭒䞶ٻἓ㤆ڇٻ⳾◎ 㦮ٻ Ṳ㑮Ṗٻ ᾟ㧻䧞ٻ Ⱔ㞚㰖⸖⪲ٻ ῂ䡚䞮⓪◆ٻ 䞲ἚṖٻ 㧞 ┺ډٻ㧊⩂䞲ٻ 㩦㦚ٻ⹮㡗䞮㡂ٻ⳾✶ٻ ῂ㎇㤦㦚ٻ ṗṗٻ⳾◎ ⪲ٻ ⋮䌖⌊⓪ٻ ╖㔶ٻ 䟟㩫ῂ㡃㦚ٻ ⳾◎ٻ ┾㥚⪲ٻ ㍺㩫䞮㡖 ┺ډٻ㡆ῂٻ╖㌗㦚ٻ㎖ٻ┾㥚⪲ٻ⿚䞶䞮㡂ٻ⿚㍳䞮⓪ٻ ⹿⻫ 㦚ٻ ㎖⭆⩂ٻ 㡺䏶Ⱎ䌖ڃ㧊䞮ٻ ڞڜڄ⧒ἶٻ 䞲┺ډٻ ⳾✶ٻ ㎖㦮ٻ ㌗䌲⯒ٻṗṗٻ㍺㩫䞶ٻ㑮ٻ㧞㦒Ⳇڇٻṗٻ㎖✺㦮ٻὖἚ⯒ٻ⋮ 䌖⌊⓪ٻ′䂯㠦ٻ㦮䟊ٻ☯㧧㧊ٻ㧊⬾㠊㰖⓪ٻ☯㩗ٻἚ㌆ٻ㔲 㓺䎲㧊┺ډٻڞڜ ⯒ٻ㌂㣿䞶ٻἓ㤆ٻ㑮䂮㩗㦒⪲ٻ⿚㍳䞮₆ٻ㠊 ⩺㤊ٻ ╖㌗㦚ٻ ┾㑲䢪䞮㡂ٻ 㰗ὖ㩗㦒⪲ٻ Ἒ㌆䞶ٻ 㑮ٻ 㧞┺ ڶڍڸډ ╖ῂٻ㰖㡃㦚ٻڞڜ ⪲ٻ䚲䡚䞮₆ٻ㥚䟊ٻڌ Ṳ㦮ٻ䟟㩫ῂ㡃 㦚ٻڌ Ṳ㦮ٻ㎖⪲ٻ㍺㩫䞮㡖㦒Ⳇٻṗٻ㎖㠦⓪ٻ☯㧒䞲ٻ㧎ῂ ṖٻỆ㭒ٻ㭧㧊⧒ἶٻṖ㩫䞮㡖┺ډٻ㯟ڇٻ㰖㡃ٻ⌊ٻ㩚㼊ٻ㧎 ῂ㦮ٻ㑮Ṗٻڨ 㧊ἶڇٻ䟟㩫ῂ㡃㦮ٻ㑮Ṗٻڟ 㧒ٻ➢ڇٻṗٻ㎖㠦ٻ 䚲䡚♮⓪ٻ㧎ῂ㦮ٻ㑮⓪ٻڟڊڨ 㧊┺ډٻ㽞₆ٻ┾Ἒ㠦㍲ٻ㩚㼊ٻ ㎖ٻ㭧㠦ٻ㧚㦮㦮ٻ䞮⋮㦮ٻ㎖㠦ٻ䞲ٻⳛ㦮ٻṦ㡒㧦⯒ٻ⹲㌳ 㔲䋾┺ډٻ ⁎Ⰲἶٻ⁎ٻ Ṧ㡒㧦⓪ٻ Ṧ㡒㧦Ṗٻ 㥚䂮䞲ٻ ㎖ٻ ⌊ ⿖㢖ٻ ⁎ٻ ㎖㦚ٻ 㭧㕂㦒⪲ٻ 㧎㩧䞲ٻ ړ Ṳ㦮ٻ ㎖㠦ٻ Ệ㭒ٻ 㭧 㧎ٻῂ㎇㤦㦚ٻ䢫⮶㩗㦒⪲ٻṦ㡒㔲䌂ٻ㑮ٻ㧞┺ډٻ⁎Ⱂٻڍ ὒٻ ṯ㧊ٻṦ㡒㧦㢖ٻṯ㦖ٻ㎖ٻ㞞㠦ٻ䙂䞾♲ٻ㧎ῂ⯒ٻṦ㡒㔲䋺 ⓪ٻἓ㤆⯒ٻ⌊⿖ٻṦ㡒ڇٻ㧎㩧ٻ㎖㠦ٻ䙂䞾♲ٻ㧎ῂ⯒ٻṦ㡒 㔲䋺⓪ٻἓ㤆⯒ٻ㣎⿖ٻṦ㡒㧊⧒ἶٻ㰖䃃䞮㡖┺ډٻ  ڃ⁎Ⱂٻڍڄٻ㎖⭆⩂ٻ㡺䏶Ⱎ䌖⯒ٻ㧊㣿䞲ٻṗٻ䟟㩫ῂ㡃ٻ⼚ٻỆ㭒ٻ 㧎ῂٻ⹥ٻṦ㡒ٻ⳾㌂ ࣮ ࣮࣮࣪ࣜ柪ࣜ塶決瘶ࣜ匶愞ࣜ微塾ࣜ昪凊ࣜࣜ ࣮࣮࣭࣪࣪ࣜ筛斶匶ࣜ 䢫㌆₆㦮ٻ Ṧ㡒㧦⓪ٻ ⌊⿖ٻ Ṧ㡒ὒٻ 㣎⿖ٻ Ṧ㡒㧊ٻ Ṗ⓻ 䞮ἶٻṗṗ㦮ٻ㩚䕢㥾㦖ٻ഑ڇٻഒ 㧊┺ډٻ⁎Ⰲἶٻ䢫㌆₆㦮ٻ ⌊⿖ٻṦ㡒㦚ٻ⋮䌖⌊⓪ٻ⹿㩫㔳㦚ٻہۄڇۄۉٻ⪲ڇٻ㣎⿖ٻṦ㡒㦚ٻ ⋮䌖⌊⓪ٻ⹿㩫㔳㦖ٻہۄڇۊېۏٻ㦒⪲ٻ䚲₆䞲┺ډٻ⡦䞲ٻہۄڇۄۉὒٻ ہۄڇۊېۏ㦚ٻ䐋䟊ٻ☚㿲䞲ٻۋ ⻞㱎ٻ⋶ٻṗٻ㎖㦮ٻ㔶′ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ 㑮⯒ٻکۋڇۓ࡞۔ڇٻۋ ⻞㱎ٻ⋶㦮ٻ㩚㼊ٻ㔶′ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ㑮⯒ٻکۋڇۏۊۏ ⧒ἶٻ䚲₆䞲┺ډٻۋ ⻞㱎ٻ⋶ٻڃۓڇ۔ڄ㎖㦮ٻ㔶′ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ㑮 ⓪ٻ ڃۓڇ۔ڄ㎖ٻ ⌊⿖㦮ٻ ڃۋڈڌڄ⻞㱎ٻ ⋶₢㰖㦮ٻ ⑚㩗ٻ Ṧ㡒㧦 ⪲ٻ㧎䞲ٻ⌊⿖ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ㑮㢖ٻڃۓڇ۔ڄ㎖㦮ٻ㧎⁒㦮ٻ㎖㠦ٻ㫊 㨂䞮⓪ٻṦ㡒㧦⪲ٻ㧎䞲ٻ 㣎⿖ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ㑮㦮ٻ䞿㧊┺ډٻ⁎ Ⰲἶٻ ۋ ⻞㱎ٻ ⋶ٻ 㔶′ٻ Ṧ㡒㧦ٻ 㑮㦮ٻ 䞿㦖ٻ ⳾✶ٻ ㎖㠦㍲ٻ ⹲㌳䞲ٻ㔶′ٻṦ㡒㧦ٻ㑮⯒ٻ 䞿䞲ٻṨ㧊┺ډٻ 㔳㦒⪲ٻ ⋮䌖 ⌊Ⳋٻ┺㦢ὒٻṯ┺ډٻ         οܰ௣ǡ௫ή௬ൌ ݂௜ǡ௜௡ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡ௫ή௬ǡ ߙቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡሺ௫ିଵሻήሺ௬ିଵሻǡ ߚቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡሺ௫ିଵሻή௬ǡ ߚቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡሺ௫ିଵሻήሺ௬ାଵሻǡ ߚቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡ௫ήሺ௬ିଵሻǡ ߚቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡ௫ήሺ௬ାଵሻǡ ߚቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡሺ௫ାଵሻήሺ௬ିଵሻǡ ߚቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡሺ௫ାଵሻή௬ǡ ߚቁ ൅ ݂௜ǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௣ିଵǡሺ௫ାଵሻήሺ௬ାଵሻǡ ߚቁ       㔳ሺͳሻ

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        ܰ௣ǡ௧௢௧ൌ  ෍ ෍ሺ ௬ୀଵ ௫ୀଵ οܰ௣ǡ௫ή௬ሻ                   㔳ሺʹሻ ⁎Ⰲἶ ṗ ㎖㦮 㔶′ Ṧ㡒㧦 㑮⓪ ṗ ㎖㦮 㧎ῂ 㑮 ⯒ ⍮㦚 㑮 㠜㦒Ⳇ, p ⻞㱎 ⋶ 㩚㼊 㔶′ Ṧ㡒㧦 㑮⓪ 㰖㡃㦮 㽳 㧎ῂ 㑮⯒ ⍮㦚 㑮 㠜㦒⸖⪲ ┺㦢ὒ ṯ㦖 㫆Ị㦚 ➆⯊Ợ ♲┺.         Ͳ ൏ ߙǡ ߚ ൑ ͳ                              㔳ሺ͵ሻ         οܰ௣ǡ௜ή௝൑ ܯ ܦ                               㔳ሺͶሻ        ܰ௣ǡ௧௢௧൑ ܯ                               㔳ሺͷሻ ࣮࣮࣮࣮࣪࣪ࣜ滊洛匶ࣜ 㰚㩫₆㠦☚ 䢫㌆₆㢖 ☯㧒䞲 Ⲫ䄺┞㯮㦒⪲ ⹪㧊⩂ 㓺Ṗ 㩚䕢Ṗ ♲┺. 䢫㌆₆㦮 㩚䕢 䢫⮶㠦 Ἒ㑮 k 㢖 t ⯒ ṗṗ ὇䞮㡂 㰚㩫₆㦮 㩚䕢 䢫⮶㦚 ⋮䌖⌎┺. ⌊ ⿖ Ṧ㡒ὒ 㣎⿖ Ṧ㡒㦮 䢫⮶㦚 ṗṗ k∙α 㢖 t∙β ⪲ 䚲₆ 䞮ἶ, Ṧ㡒㧦⯒ ῂ䞮⓪ ⹿㩫㔳㦖 fd,in ὒ fd,out ⪲ 䚲䡚 䞲┺.         οܰ௤ǡ௫ή௬ൌ ݂ௗǡ௜௡ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡ௫ή௬ǡ  ή ߙቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡሺ௫ିଵሻήሺ௬ିଵሻǡ – ή Ⱦቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡሺ௫ିଵሻή௬ǡ – ή Ⱦቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡሺ௫ିଵሻήሺ௬ାଵሻǡ – ή Ⱦቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡ௫ήሺ௬ିଵሻǡ – ή Ⱦቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡ௫ήሺ௬ାଵሻǡ – ή Ⱦቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡሺ௫ାଵሻήሺ௬ିଵሻǡ – ή Ⱦቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡሺ௫ାଵሻή௬ǡ – ή Ⱦቁ ൅ ݂ௗǡ௢௨௧ቀ෍ ܰ௤ିଵǡሺ௫ାଵሻήሺ௬ାଵሻǡ – ή Ⱦቁ    㔳ሺ͸ሻ            ܰ௤ǡ௧௢௧ൌ  ෍ ෍ሺ ௬ ௫ οܰ௤ǡ௫ή௬ሻ               㔳ሺ͹ሻ  Ⱎ㺂Ṗ㰖⪲ Ṧ㡒 䢫⮶ὒ Ṧ㡒㧦 㑮⓪ ┺㦢ὒ ṯ㦖 㫆Ị㦚 Ṗ㰖Ợ ♲┺.         Ͳ ൏ ݇ ή ߙǡ ݐ ή ߚ ൑ ͳ                       㔳ሺͺሻ         οܰ௣ǡ௜ή௝൑ெ_஽                            㔳ሺͻሻ         ܰ௣ǡ௧௢௧൑ ܯ                             㔳ሺͳͲሻ ڃ⁎Ⱂٻڎڄٻ⹪㧊⩂㓺ٻ㩚䕢ٻ㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮ٻ㔳⼚ٻὒ㩫ٻ ࣯࣪ 微塾ࣜ穟枻ࣜ稊嵢显枪ࣜ ࣯࣭࣪ 筛斶匶ࣜ儷柦ࣜ愕ࣜ円溣ࣜ ⁎Ⱂ 1 㦮 䢫㌆₆ 㭧 ⳾◎㦚 䞯㔋䞮㡂 㾲㩗㦮 α 㢖 β ⯒ ῂ䞮₆ 㥚䞲 ῂṚ㦚 㔳⼚, α 㢖 β 㦮 䌖╏㎇㦚 䕦 ┾䞮₆ 㥚䞲 ῂṚ㦚 Ỗ㯳㧊⧒ἶ ῂ⿚䞮㡖┺. 2.2 㠦㍲ 㩲㔲䞲 㔳(1)㠦 㧚㦮㦮 Ṧ㡒 䢫⮶ α0, β0 ⯒ ╖㧛䞮㡂 ⁎Ⱂ 1 㦮 䢫㌆₆ 㭧 㔳⼚ ῂṚὒ 㥶㌂䞲 ἆὒ⯒ ⌊⓪ 㺔⓪┺. 㞴㍲ ῂ䞲 α 㢖 β Ṗ 䌖╏䞲㰖 䕦┾䞮₆ 㥚䟊 㔳(1)ὒ α, β ⯒ ㌂㣿䟊 ῂ䞲 㧒⼚ Ṧ㡒㧦 㑮㢖 ⁎Ⱂ 1 㦮 Ỗ㯳 ῂṚ㦮 Ṧ㡒㧦 㑮Ṗ 㥶㌂䞲㰖 ゚ᾦ䞲┺. ⁎ Ⱂ 4 ⓪ 㧚㦮㦮 Ṧ㡒 䢫⮶㦚 㩗㣿䞮㡂 㾲㩗䢪♲ Ṧ㡒 䢫⮶㦚 㺔₆㥚䟊 ⹮⽋♮⓪ ὒ㩫㦚 ☚㔳䢪䞲 ⳾㔋㧊┺. ࣯࣮࣪ࣜ滊洛匶ࣜ儷柦ࣜ愕ࣜ円溣ࣜ 3.1 㠦㍲ 䢫㌆₆㦮 㾲㩗䢪♲ Ṧ㡒 䢫⮶㦚 ῂ䞮⓪ ⹿ ⻫ὒ ☯㧒䞮Ợ 䞲 ⹿⻫㦒⪲ 㰚㩫₆㦮 Ṧ㡒 䢫⮶㦚 ☚ 㿲䞲┺. 㰚㩫₆㦮 㔳⼚ ῂṚ㦚 䐋䞮㡂 k∙α 㢖 t∙β ⯒ 㺔 ⓪┺. 㺔㦖 k∙α 㢖 t∙β Ṗ 㾲㩗㦮 㩚䕢 䢫⮶㧎㰖 㰚㩫₆ Ỗ㯳 ῂṚ㦮 㔺㩲 Ṧ㡒㧦 㑮㢖 ゚ᾦ䞮㡂 䕦┾䞲┺. ୙ۏ̛ ऑࢽ̛ ָі ɹࢺOQFGNJ[RQVJGUKU ָі ݢشOQFGNKFGPVKHKECVKQP ָі ɹࢺOQFGNJ[RQVJGUKU ָі ݢشOQFGNKFGPVKHKECVKQP ‡ΰٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ ſ ‡ ࠹ٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ ƀ ‡ΰٕ ʃࠍ ؏ࢽݥ ILLQ ‡ ࠹ٕ ʃࠍ ؏ࢽݥ ILRXW ‡ΰٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ Nȡſ ‡ ࠹ٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ Wȡƀ ‡ΰٕ ʃࠍ ؏ࢽݥ IGLQ ‡ ࠹ٕ ʃࠍ ؏ࢽݥ IGRXW ‡ΰٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ ſ ‡ ࠹ٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ ƀ ‡ɽ ܂ࢂ ݦ̍ ʃࠍ࢕ ܹ ೚1LS ‡ ࢷ঑ ܂ࢂ ݦ̍ ʃࠍ࢕ ܹ 1SWRW ‡ΰٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ Nȡſ ‡ ࠹ٕ ʃࠍ ୙թ Wȡƀ ‡ɽ ܂ࢂ ݦ̍ ʃࠍ࢕ ܹ ೚1GT ‡ ࢷ঑ ܂ࢂ ݦ̍ ʃࠍ࢕ ܹ 1SWRW

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ڃ⁎ⰒٻڏڄٻṦ㡒ٻ䢫⮶ٻ㾲㩗䢪ٻὒ㩫ٻ 4. ἆἆ⪶ 㔺 ◆㧊䎆⯒ ₆⹮㦒⪲ 䞲 㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮ ⳾◎㧊⸖⪲ 㩫䢫☚Ṗ ⏨┺⓪ 㧻㩦㦚 Ṗ㰚┺. CA ⯒ ㌂㣿䞮㡂 ṗ ṗ㦮 ㎖㠦 ἶ㥶䞲 䔏㎇㦚 㧛⩻䞶 㑮 㧞┺⓪ 䔏㰫㦚 ⹪䌫㦒⪲ ṗ ㎖㠦 㰖㡃㩗 䔏㎇㦚 ⹮㡗䞮㡂 㫖 ▪ 䟊 ㌗☚Ṗ ⏨㦖 㔲⸂⩞㧊㎮ ῂ䡚㧊 Ṗ⓻䞮┺. 䔏䧞 㧎ῂ ⹖☚, ῂ㎇㤦✺㦮 䟟㩫 ῂ㡃 Ṛ㦮 㧊☯, ┾㼊 㔲㍺ ❇ 䋊⩂㓺䎆 Ṧ㡒㦮 䢫⮶㦚 ⏨㧊⓪ 䔏㎇✺㦚 ☚㧛䞶 ἓ 㤆, 䙃⹲㩗㧊ἶ ☢⹲㩗㧎 䋊⩂㓺䎆 Ṧ㡒㠦 ╖䞲 㡗䟻 ⩻㦚 ⹎Ⰲ 㡞䁷䞮ἶ ╖゚䞶 㑮 㧞┺. ▪ ⋮㞚Ṗ 䡚㨂 ⓪ 䞮⋮㦮 㰖㡃㦚 ⿚㍳ ╖㌗㦒⪲ ㍺㩫䞮㡖㦒⋮, 㡂⩺ Ṳ㦮 㰖㡃㦚 ἆ䞿䞲 ⳾◎㦚 ῂ䡚䞮㡂 ▪ 䡚㔺㩗㧎 Ṧ 㡒 ἓ⪲ ⹥ Ṧ㡒㧦 㑮⯒ 㡞䁷䞶 㑮 㧞┺. 㺎ἶⶎ䠢 [1] ₖ⋾㑲, 䆪⪲⋮⹪㧊⩂㓺Ṧ㡒㯳-19 䡚䢿ὒ ὒ㩲, ⽊ Ị∙⽋㰖 Issue & Focus, 373 䢎, 1-13, 2020

[2] Mohammad R. G., Kinetic of Hepatitis B Virus Infection : A Cellular Automaton Model Study, Journal of Paramedical Sciences, Vol.3, No.3, 1-8, 2012

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