Glossary
3) Mechanism for renewable and low-carbon fuels accounting
12.2 Summary of costs and benefits
27 Table 20: Overview of benefits of the preferred options
Description Amount Comments
Direct benefits
Environmental benefits CO2 emissions from cars and vans are projected to decrease by around 32-33% in 2030, 56-66% in 2035 and 83-89% in 2040 as compared to 2005.
On a well-to-wheel basis, CO2 emissions significantly decrease by around 30-31% in 2030, 53-63% in 2035 and 80-87% in 2040 as compared to 2005.
As a result of the market uptake of zero-emission vehicles co-benefits are observed for air quality, with pollutants emissions decreasing by around 64-65%, 77-80%, 89-91%
for NOx and 55-56%, 73-77%, 88-91% for PM2.5 in 2030, 2035 and 2040 compared to 2015. The cumulative cost of the avoided pollutants compared to the baseline in the period 2030 to 2040 amounts to around 49 - 59 billion euros.
Main beneficiaries are society overall and, in particular as regards air quality benefits, citizens, especially those living in urban areas.
Economic savings for society and end-users
Net economic savings from a societal and end-user perspective are calculated as the difference, between the policy options and the baseline, of the total costs, averaged over the EU-wide new vehicle fleet of cars and vans registered in 2030, 2035 or 2040. The total costs include the capital costs, the fuel or electricity costs, and the operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of the vehicles. For the societal perspective, they also include the external cost of CO2 emissions. The end-user perspective is presented for the first user (first 5 years after first registeration) and the second user (years 6-10).
Net economic savings from a societal perspective over the vehicle lifetime for new cars and new vans amount to the following ranges:
- 860-1600, 1500-3400, 4600-5100 euro/car in 2030, 2035, 2040 - 1000-1200, 4000-5100, 5600-6400 euro/van in 2030, 2035, 2040
TCO (total cost of ownership) for first users of new cars and new vans show savings in
Main beneficiaries are the end users and society overall.
28 the ranges :
- 330-600, 970-2200, 2800-3100 euro/car in 2030, 2035, 2040 - 340-600, 3400-4000, 5200-5500 euro/van in 2030, 2035, 2040
TCO (total cost of ownership) for second users of new cars and new vans show savings in the ranges:
- 450-800, 1300-2700, 2800-3000 euro/car in 2030, 2035, 2040 - 460-880, 2800-4400, 3700-3900 euro/van in 2030, 2035, 2040.
Energy (fuel) savings Final energy demand in cars and vans decreases by around 21-22%, 36-45% and 55-63% in 2030, 2035, 2040 as compared to 2015. The CO2 emission standards alone will contribute to the 2040 reductions of the final energy demand for cars and vans by 20 percentage points.
Over the period 2030-2050 the cumulative savings of diesel and gasoline compared to the baseline amount to 913-1100 Mtoe. This is equivalent to around 200-300 billion euros at current oil prices.
Main beneficiaries are the end users and society overall.
Indirect benefits Economic benefits due to
removing the the possibility for small volume manufacturers to be granted a derogation target from 2030
By removing the derogation possibility, market distortion affecting competition between manufacturers operating in the same segments would be reduced.
Main beneficiaries are manufacturers having to meet the stricter targets, which are competing with manufacturers benefiting from the derogation
Employment benefits Overall a small increase in employment is projected. Positive impacts are mainly seen in the sectors supplying to the automotive sector as well as in the power sector. Other sectors experience some positive second order effects, e.g. as a result of overall increased consumer expenditure. The further expansion of the value chain driven by
Main beneficiaries are the automotive suppliers and power sectors, as well as the electronics, software
29
other trends than the transition to zero-emission mobility is also likely to create new job opportunities in sectors traditionally not part of the automotive value chain, such as electronics, software and services. Small negative impacts are seen in the automotive sector and in petroleum refining.
Adequate policies and programs are needed for the reskilling of workers as well as educational programmes to provide future employees with a set of skills adapted to the new demands.
and service sectors.
Other macro-economic benefits
A small positive impact is projected on GDP, with an increase of 0.01-0.02%, 0.13-0.26%, 0.45-0.65% in 2030, 2035 and 2040 respectively as compared to the baseline.
Main beneficiaries are society overall
Benefits regarding innovation and competitiveness
Innovation in zero-emission technologies (and in fuel efficiency technologies) will be stimulated through the requirement to supply zero-emission vehicles to the market as the share of new zero emission cars is projected to increase to around 36-46% , 50-100%, 100% in 2030, 2035, 2040, as compared to around 6% of 2020. The associated investments are expected to lead to benefits for the competitiveness of the automotive industry in a context where zero-emission technologies will be more and more demanded on the global market.
Main beneficiaries are the automotive sector.
SME benefits SMEs are impacted in particular as frequent users of light commercial vehicles. Positive impacts are expected as a result of lower operating costs for the vehicles and TCO savings for first, second and third users.
Main beneficiaries are SMEs operating vans.
30 Table 21: Overview of costs of the preferred options
Citizens/Consumers Businesses Administrations
One-off Recurrent One-off Recurrent One-off Recurrent
CO2 emission target levels
Direct costs
N/A See qualitative assessment in Section 3.1 of this Annex.
N/A Automotive manufacturers:
Projected costs for manufacturers are:
- 300-550, 940-1700, 1400-1700 euro/car in 2030, 2035, 2040
- 450-940, 1500-2800, 2300-2700 euro/van in 2030, 2035, 2040
The additional cumulative investments for automotive manufacturers over the period 2021-2040 in the range 12-19 billion euros annually over the period 2021 to 2040.
This represents an increase of around 3-4% compared to the annual investments necessary to meet the current CO2 emission standards.
N/A N/A
Indirect costs
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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13 ANNEX 4:ANALYTICAL METHODS
The analytical work underpinning this Impact Assessment uses a series of models:
PRIMES-TREMOVE, E3ME, GEM-E3, JRC DIONE. They have a successful record of use in the Commission's transport, energy and climate policy impact assessments.
A brief description of each model is provided below.