Glossary
4.2. Specific objectives
The initiative will contribute to the achievement of the general objective by pursuing the following specific three objectives:
To increase sufficiently the renewables share in final energy consumption. This will ensure that the overall and sectoral deployment of renewable energy in 2030 is in line with the CTP findings, thus contributing cost-effectively to the increased 2030 climate target of at least 55% as well as climate neutrality objective in 2050 (which requires the large scale rollout of innovative technologies including RFNBOs and advanced biofuels after 2030).
For this objective, regulatory and non-regulatory options will be explored on the following topics: overall target, heating and cooling, including buildings, transport, accompanied by flanking and enabling measures in electricity and industry.
To increase energy system integration by promoting electrification based on renewable electricity, to create a level playing field for all innovative renewable and low carbon fuels and to specifically promote innovative renewable fuels (such as hydrogen and its derivatives produced from renewable electricity). This will ensure that the increase in the RES share in final energy consumption is cost-effective by promoting ESI in line with the CTP and the ESI strategy and that innovative fuels are promoted strongly considering that they are indispensable for carbon neutrality.
For this objective, regulatory and non-regulatory options will be explored on the following topics: promotion of renewables-based electrification, measures to improve the system integration of renewables, and definition, certification of all innovative renewable and low carbon fuels and promotion of innovative renewable fuels.
To ensure that renewables, in particular produced from forest biomass, are sustainable.
This will ensure that forest biomass consumed in the EU is produced sustainably, including by minimising the risk of significant negative environmental and climate impacts, in line with the ambition set in the EGD and the BDS.
24 4.3. Intervention logic
The figure below visualizes the intervention logic, linking the problem, problem drivers, specific objectives and general objectives. The policy options described in section 5 are defined to address these objectives.
Figure 2: Intervention logic
5. WHAT ARE THE AVAILABLE POLICY OPTIONS? 5.1.Baseline
The baseline for this initiative is the recast of REDII as described in Section 1.1
The EU Reference Scenario 2020 (REF) and its Member States specific results reflect implementation of REDII recast. REF is the baseline in the impact assessments for all the initiatives of the “Fit for 55” Package40, including in this one. Complete information about
40 Regardless of timing of specific initiatives – please see also Annex 4 explaining how “Fit for 55” initiatives are captured in the core scenarios.
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preparation process, assumptions and results are included in the Reference scenario publication41. The most relevant information for this assessment is also presented in Annex 4.
REF reflects the agreed 2030 EU climate and energy targets: at least 40% GHG reduction, at least 32% renewables share and at least 32.5% energy efficiency (energy efficiency target is, however, not achieved – see below). REF also reflects main policy tools at EU level to implement these targets and, to the extent possible, the complete range of foreseen of bottom up national policies and measures of the final NECPs that Member States submitted in 2019/2020 according to the Governance Regulation42. The REF also takes into account the energy system impacts of the COVID-19 crisis that already heavily impacted the EU and Member States’ economies in 2020/202143.
For 2030, REF projects for the EU a 33.2% share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption44. It also projects that final energy consumption is 883 Mtoe, which is 29.6% below the 2007 Baseline and thus an ambition gap to the agreed 2030 energy efficiency target of at least 32.5%. For the ESR, an overall reduction of emissions of 30.7% by 2030 as compared to 2005 is projected. These projections are in line45 with the Commission’s assessment of final NECPs46. Taking into account the national contributions and policies put forward in the final NECPs, the REF scenario achieves 33.2% renewable energy share in 2030, and thus overachieves the current EU 32%
renewable energy target. All sectoral shares show growth in renewable energy deployment compared to historical levels, which reflects the ambitious policies of the Member States. Those policies and the resulting renewables deployment are, however, not sufficient for achieving the level of ambition commensurate with the increased climate target (38-40% according to CTP). Naturally, also all sectoral shares are below the levels projected in the CTP scenarios - as illustrated in the table below.
Table 1 - Overview projected sector shares; Source ESTAT, PRIMES
Total RES share RES-E RES-H&C RES-T
2005 10% 16% 12% 2%
2015 18% 30% 20% 7%
2030 REF 33% 59% 33% 21%
2030 CTP : ranges for 55% GHG scenarios 38-40% 64-67% 39-42% 22-26%
41 REF reference COM/2021/X
42 Regulation (EU) 2018/1999
43 The REF incorporates in much more detail (than the CTP Baseline) Member States’ policies and objectives as put forward in their NECPs and makes assumptions on the impact of the COVID crisis linked to most recent macro-economic forecasts. Concerning renewables deployment, the most salient feature is the increased Member States’
ambition in terms of renewables deployment in transport. Increased consumption in the buildings sector in 2020 (due to COVID-19) should also to be noticed as it has an impact on RES H&C shares (i.e. lowering them).
44 The gross final energy consumption is the energy used by end-consumers (final energy consumption) plus grid losses and self-consumption of power plants. This indicator is calculated on the basis of Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources.
45 Primary energy consumption reduction projections in REF (32.7%) are, however, close to the agreed target for 2030.
This is not in line with the Commission’s assessment that indicates that the gap in final energy consumption is mirrored by the gap in primary energy consumption. The REF projections, however, capture the latest evolutions in the power generation, notably coal phase-out (not fully reflected in the NECPs) and the latest technology outlook for renewables in power generation (notably smaller role of biomass).
46 COM/2020/564 final
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2030 RED IA: core scenarios ranges for 55% GHG scenarios 38-40% 65-66% 36-41% 27-29%
While not all trends can be captured in energy system modelling, the REF shows the impacts of several trends described in section 2.3 above.
According to REF, GHG emissions from the European Union in 2030 (incl. intra EU aviation and maritime and incl. LULUCF) would be 45% below the 1990 level. An EU allowance price of 30 EUR/tCO2eq. in 203047, national policies and lowering costs of renewable technologies would drive the emissions reduction in the ETS sector.
REF models the impacts of targets and policies already adopted, but not the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. As a result, there are no additional policies driving decarbonisation after 2030.
However, climate and energy policies will likely not be rolled back after 2030 and several of the measures in place today will continue to deliver emissions reduction in the long term. By 2050, some 60% GHG reductions (with regards to 1990) are projected to be achieved.