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Chapter 2. Evaluation Results

2.6 Coastal Inundation Forecasting System in Fiji (Phase Ⅱ-Ⅳ)

2.6.1 Project Overview

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2. Project overview

Descriptions

Goals

Overall goal Ÿ To implement coastal inundation forecasting and warning system in South Pacific island countries to improve the capacity for disaster response

Mid-term goal Ÿ Continued operation of coastal inundation forecasting and warning system to strengthen the capacities of severe weather monitoring and forecasting & warning

Short-term goal (outputs)

Ÿ Installed coastal inundation forecasting and warning system (wave, storm surge, hydrological flooding, coasting inundation model)

Ÿ Installed equipment (wave buoy, ICT equipment) Ÿ Capacity building

Ÿ Cooperation platform

Roles

KMA Ÿ Funding

WMO Ÿ Supervising the overall project

SPC

Ÿ Developing and implementing models Ÿ Installing system and equipment Ÿ Dispatching experts

Ÿ Education and training

Recipient

(FMS) Ÿ Providing support for the project

Project location Fiji

Scale/Duration USD 1,200,000 (400,000 dollars for each phase)

Beneficiary FMS, the general public in Fiji, coastal residents, small island countries near Fiji

Project entities

Funding agency Ÿ KMA

Recipient Ÿ Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Supervising

agency Ÿ WMO

Implementing

agency Ÿ Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC)

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-3. Project Design Matrix

A. Performance matrix

¡ The Project Design Matrix (PDM) was not established when this project was designed. The evaluation team, however, established the PDM for evaluation (PDMe) for project evaluation.

¡ In addition, the evaluation team established an evaluation frame based on the Theory of Change (ToC) to evaluate the process and outcomes of the project.

<Figure 5> ToC of the CIFDP-F (Phase Ⅱ-Ⅳ)

Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI) Means of Verification (MOV) Important Assumption

Overall Goal

To establish coastal inundation forecasting and warning system in South Pacific island countries to strengthen DRM capacity

Outcomes

1. Forecast accuracy 1. Comparing forecast data with actual observations

1. Establishing operation system and securing operational budget

2. Systematic cooperation with relevant agencies Continued operation of coastal inundation

forecasting and warning system to enhance the capacity of severe weather monitoring and forecasting & warning

Outputs

1. Whether the recipient can operate the system 2. Whether equipment are purchased and installed 3. The number of trainees

- Capability self-assessment

4. Whether information dissemination system is established between relevant agencies

1-1. Project report/Pilot-operation report 1-2. Interviewing personnel in charge 2-1. Project report

2-2. On-site inspection

3-1. List of training participants 3-2. Manuals

4. Interview

1. Systematic/continued on-site training 2. Securing capability for system operation 3. Installing system suitable to the recipient’s

circumstances and appropriate maintenance 1. Installed coastal inundation forecasting and

warning system

- Wave, storm surge, river flood, coastal inundation model

2. Installed equipment

- Marine observation instruments (wave buoy)

- Server and storage 3. Capacity building

- Forecaster training/manuals - Operation and maintenance

4. Established cooperation platform (technical development and operation)

Activities Inputs Pre-conditions

1. Developing and installing coastal inundation forecasting and warning system (2nd-4th year) - Pre-operation test

- Developing and integrating components of models

2. Purchasing and installing equipment (Phase Ⅱ-Ⅲ)

- Marine observation instruments - ICT system, including server 3. Training (Phase Ⅱ-Ⅳ)

- Forecaster training - Developing manuals 4. Workshop (Phase Ⅱ-Ⅳ)

- Advisory meeting - Stakeholder workshop

5. Establishing cooperation platform (PhaseⅣ) - Establishing cooperation platform for technology development and operation

1. KMA: Provides funding of USD 1.2 million in total - 400,000 dollars for each phase

- Cooperation with WMO, advising on marine meteorology and hydro-meteorology

2. WMO: Supervising agency - Supervising the overall project

3. SPC: Implementing agency (USD 3.13 million)

- Developing and installing integrated coastal inundation forecasting and warning system - Provide training and technical support

4. FMS: Recipient

- Providing personnel for system installation and administrative support - Provision of installation site for research and forecasting system - Customs clearance and transport of provided equipment

1. Selection of an eligible implementing agency as well as securing experts

2. Close communication between stakeholders and executing their own roles and responsibilities

<Table 37> PDMe for the CIFDP-F

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4. Project process

¡ The International Cooperation Division of the KMA provided funding for this project, and ensured and managed the progress of the project through an annual project report, without direct involvement of its personnel. The Marine Meteorology Division offered technical support and advice with respect to models and observations of wave, storm surge, inundation.

¡ The WMO, the supervising agency in this project, was responsible for selecting an implementing agency and supervising and carrying out the overall project, including executing a budget and submitting an annual report to the KMA. The Marine Meteorology and Ocean Affairs Division of the WMO was the main division involved in the project.

¡ Every CIFDP project is basically implemented in accordance with the CIFDP Implementation Plan.

¡ Stakeholders’ Workshop for the CIFDP-F was held in February 2013 during the first phase of the project. At the Workshop, the National Coordination Team (NCT) of the CIFDP-F developed a Terms of Reference (ToR), as well as Definitive National Agreement (DNA). The Fiji’s cabinet then officially approved the DNA.

¡ In addition, this project has a Project Steering Group (PSG) comprised of experts in meteorology, oceanography, hydrological modelling, and service and social scientists. In close cooperation with the NCT, the PSG established a User Requirements Plan (URP) and National Capacity Assessment (NAC). Based on this plan and assessment, technologies are now under development throughout the second to the fourth phase of the project.

¡ The Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC), the project implementation partner (PIP) in this project, concluded a LoA with the WMO, and has been carrying out its tasks including model development, regular reporting, and forecast capacity enhancement.

¡ The FMS is responsible for managing and supervising the project on the recipient side.

Technology development and other activities related to the project are mostly carried out at the headquarters of the FMS in Nadi.

5. Project timeline

¡ Nov. 2012 Launched the first phase of the CIFDP-F

(funded by KOICA and delivered by the WMO).

¡ Oct. 2013 Completed the first phase of the CIFDP-F

¡ May 2016 Initiated the second phase of the CIFDP-F

¡ Jul. 2016 KMA provided USD 0.4 million to the Korea CS TF for the second phase of the CIFDP-F.

¡ Aug. 2016 Held a Review Meeting and Kick-Off meeting

¡ Feb. 2017 The 7th PSG meeting in Geneva, Switzerland

¡ Feb. 2017 Concluded a LoA with the SPC for a project implementation partner (USD 313,000, from April 2017 to April 2018)

¡ Apr. 2017 The project budget was transferred from the WMO to the SPC.

¡ Jul. 2017 Stakeholders’ Workshop for supporting the SPC organized by the WMO in Nadi, Fiji.

¡ Dec. 2017 KMA provided USD 0.4 million to the Korea CS TF for the third phase of the CIFDP-F

¡ ― present The project is now underway. Different phases of each project area, from the second to the fourth, are being simultaneously implemented.

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