Analysis of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and the countermeasures was a 2-year study project. The first-year of study focused on analyzing the impacts of climate change, while the second-year study was undertaken primarily for complementing the
analysis of the impacts, categorizing the adaptation policies for the agricultural sector and developing the list of countermeasures <Figure 1-1>.
This Report is a general report that contains the results of the second-year study. It includes the main ideas of the analysis of the impacts of climate change, carried out in the first-year study. The report on the second-year study consists of eight chapters.
Chapter 1 “Introduction” describes the need for the study, the purpose and scope of the study, the preceding studies and the study methods:
Chapter 2 describes the present conditions and prospects of climate change, by diagnosing and estimating the global climate change, based on the IPCC’s estimation of climate change. It also diagnoses and estimates the actual conditions of climate change in Korea, using the climate change data analyzed by such institutes as The National Institute of Meteorological Research, The National Academy of Agricultural Science and The Korea Institute of Environmental Policies.
Chapter 3 systemizes the basic concepts and analysis theories related to the agricultural sector’s responses to climate change. As approaches to responding to climate change, it presents the basic frameworks of mitigation and adaptation. It summarizes the theories for analyzing the impacts of climate change. In addition, it presents the concepts of applicability and adaptive capacity to climate change and the types of adaptation and approaches to climate change.
Chapter 4 describes the results of the analysis of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector, the related agricultural ecosystem and agricultural production. It also deals with the results of analyzing the shift in main production regions of major crops and the economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector.
Chapter 5 presents the results of the questionnaire research which concerned the farmers’ response to climate change, their awareness of climate change, and their adaptation to climate change. In addition,
Figure 1-1. Flowchart for the study for formulating countermeasures against climate change
・Review of the preceding studies and the related data
・Questionnaires for farm ers and the experts
・Joint study with the experts from other institutes
Diagnosis of present conditions of clim ate change and its prospects Systematization of the climate change and im pact analysis theories
Analysis of the agricultural sector’s awareness of clim ate change
・Diagnosis of the global clim ate change and its prospect
・Diagnosis of climate change in Korea and its prospects
・Schem atics of the im pacts of clim ate change
・Approaches to analysis of the im pacts of clim ate change
・Questionnaires for agricultural people’s and the experts’ awareness of clim ate change Analysis of the econom ic im pacts of
clim ate change on agricultural sector m ajor countries
・Analysis of the agricultural productivity (nonparam etric analysis
・Long-term estimation of rice production (CERES-Rice)
・Analysis of the agro-econom y (Ricardian M odel) Cases of the clim ate change im pact
analysis by m ajor countries ・Cases of Japan’s and USA’s im pact analysis
・Cases of other countries’ im pact analysis
System atization of the theories for counterm easures against clim ate change
・Establishment of response approaches to climate change
・Establishm ent of the concept of adaptation to clim ate change and presentation of the approaches Com plem entation of the analysis of
the im pacts of clim ate change on the agricultural sector.
・Analysis of the influences of m eteorological factors and the im pacts of m eteorological disasters
・Estim ation of the changes in local agriculture and m ain production regions
・Im pacts of weather on crop cultivation (ORYZA2000) Analysis of the agricultural people’s
response to clim ate change
・Questionnaire about the recognition of clim ate change and the adaptation m easures
・Analysis of the agricultural people’s decision m aking under conditions of risk and uncertainty List of adaptation m easures for the
agricultural sector
・Organization of the inventory of adaptation measures including research and development, policy programs, laws and institutions, agricultural production techniques, and education and public relations Analysis of the counterstrategies
・Risk analysis for selecting adaptation m easures
・Decision of the hierarchy of counterstrategies (AHP)
・Benchm arking of counterstrategies of m ajor countries
・Agricultural sector’s counterstrategies to clim ate change
- Basic principles for establishing the strategies - Phased-out im plem entation program s - Role division am ong the stakeholders and
im plem entation strategies 1 st-year study2 nd-year study
chapter 5 describes the results of the analysis of the farmers’ decision making under the risks and uncertainty of climate change, based on the expected utility model.
Chapter 6 analyzes the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sectors of major countries and how they have responded to climate change, taking the examples of Japan,, UK, Australia and China. The EU bloc was another example.
Chapter 7 describes the agricultural sector’s countermeasures against climate change, presenting master plans and implementation strategies for adapting to climate change.
Lastly, Chapter 8 presents the summary and conclusion of this study, together with the limitations of the study.