ARAbLE

13

TAbLE 13.1: ARAbLE EXPORT PRICES AND vALUE, 2005–2012

ACTUAL FORECAST

YEAR TO 31 MARCh 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

New Zealand contract

wheat milling price ($/tonne) 290 285 315 350 530 500 520 540

TOTAL GRAINS AND SEEDS

Export value (NZ$ mil) 100 122 146 145 148 162 178 194

Source MAF.

Grain and oilseed prices around the world have risen dramatically in recent months. These price rises began with maize in late 2006 but, with substitution between grains and oilseeds in production and

consumption, prices for other grains and oilseeds have also ratcheted up.

The global wheat price indicator has risen by 60 percent to US$339 per tonne for the year ended 31 March 2008. This price is expected to settle back to US$288 per tonne in the following year and then maintain this level in real terms throughout the forecast period.

During the next four years, prices of wheat for growers in New Zealand are expected to be significantly higher than prices have been over the past four years. This is because of higher imported wheat prices and an assumed weakening of the New Zealand dollar eroding the

competitiveness of imported wheat.

INTERNATIONAL PRICE DRIvERS

Demand for grains has been rising due partly to biofuel production in developed countries. Consumption of grain is also increasing among emerging economies. Supply constraints caused by climatic extremes in major production areas have compounded this situation, as have low grain stocks, which have slowed productivity gains and increased energy costs.

The US leads the spectacular demand for grain to make biofuel. There, production of fuel ethanol from maize jumped fourfold between 2000 and 2007. A plethora of government polices implemented around the world have also contributed to the growth of biofuels. These range from blending mandates to import tariffs. Skyrocketing oil prices are another factor encouraging biofuel production.

“ The global

wheat price

indicator has

risen by

60 percent to

US$339 per

tonne for the year

ended 31 March

2008. ”

ARAbLE 50

More grain is being used to feed animals as meat consumption in developing nations increases steadily. About five times more cereal protein is needed to produce the equivalent amount of meat protein through livestock production.

The severe drought in Australia during 2006 and 2007 has continued to influence the New Zealand grain market. Australian production during 2007 was only 13 million tonnes, compared with the usual 20 to 25 million tonnes. Global supply has also been a factor, with Eastern Europe and other grain-producing countries suffering from dry or very wet periods at critical times.

Publicly held stocks of grain around the world have declined in recent years as subsidies have been reformed. During the last decade, the decoupling of farmer income support from cereal production in major exporting countries has reduced production. Previously, prices in these countries were held in a narrow and artificial band, disconnected from the real costs of production.

Prices for wheat and other grains on international markets are forecast to decline from the peaks of early 2008 as supply recovers. Global production, with Australia leading the way, is expected to reach record highs during 2008 and 2009, assuming no climatic disasters. However, the recovery in grain production is not expected to unwind all of the recent price increases because of the continuing strong demand.

EXPORTS

Exports from the New Zealand arable sector are made up of seed and dry pea crops, grown in rotation with cereal crops. The growing season and harvest during the year ended 31 March 2008 was unusually wet in Canterbury, the major production area. This caused lower yields for many seed crops. As a result, exports for the year ended 31 March 2008 fell to $133 million from $145 million in 2006/07. In addition to this, barley valued at $11 million was exported for the first time since 2000.

Rising prices for all crops globally and a reasonable production season during 2007/08, particularly for irrigated crops, should result in seed exports recovering to $148 million in the year ending 31 March 2009.

Source AgriBase.

ARAbLE

ARAbLE 51

The outlook for the rest of the forecast period is for seed export receipts to continue rising steadily.

PRODUCTION

The production of cereal grain (wheat, barley and maize) in

New Zealand is estimated to have increased by 9 percent for the year ended 30 June 2008 to 940 000 tonnes. The cropping area enlarged by 17 percent, but yields were affected by the very dry spring and summer conditions throughout most growing regions.

Source Statistics New Zealand.

FIGURE 13.1: ARAbLE CROPPING AREA, hECTARES, YEAR ENDED 30 jUNE 2007

��

The outlook for the year ending 31 March 2009 is for cereal production in New Zealand to increase. The rise will be tempered by competition for suitable land and water, from dairying in particular. Other

constraints include rising crop production costs and the level of expertise and infrastructure required to be viable. However, lower returns from sheep farming could see land become available for some types of crops.

Seed export crops are likely to be in demand from buyers overseas, but they face stiff competition for suitable land within New Zealand.

Accomplished growers of these crops may expand their areas.

FORESTRY 52

14

FORESTRY

Overall forestry export receipts for the year ended 31 March 2008 decreased by 4.3 percent compared with the previous year. This was mainly the result of the strength of the New Zealand dollar against the US currency. Overall forestry volumes grew by 2.6 percent.

Aside from the strong New Zealand dollar, prices for forestry exports have also suffered from high shipping rates and weak housing markets in the US and other importing countries. However, amid this gloom, log prices in Asia have improved.

The high value of the New Zealand dollar more than wiped out all the gains in US dollar prices. Most forestry products are sold in US dollars.

FOB prices for forestry products in US dollar terms increased by 8.0 percent over the year ended 31 March 2008. However, during the same period, the New Zealand dollar increased in value by 16 percent, and consequently New Zealand dollar FOB prices for forestry exports decreased by nearly 7 percent.

문서에서 SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR NEw ZEALAND AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY (페이지 57-60)