본 연구에서는 공개된 정책 목표와 이와 관련된 참고자료를 활용하여 부문별, 정책별 감축 예상 효과에 대한 산출 결과를 도출하였으나, 미래 기술에 대한 구체적인 정보의 불확실성, 활용 가능한 자료의 한계 등으로 인해 일부 정책 또는 부문(산업 등)의 경우 간접 정보와 가정 을 통해 추정함으로써 개별 산출 결과에 대한 신뢰성에 한계가 존재한다. 본 연구의 결과물은 연구 목표인 탄소중립 전략 이행에 따른 향후 대기 정책 추진에서의 시사점 도출과 온실가스-대기오염물질 동시 감축을 위한 방향 제시에 활용하기 위한 것으로, 구체적인 개별 정책에 대한 신뢰도 높은 산출 결과가 필요한 경우 별도의 후속 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.
아울러 본 연구에서 최종 전망 목표 연도인 2030년과 기준연도인 2018년에 대한 결과를 제시하였으나, 기준연도 이후 목표연도까지의 중간 변화에 대한 결과는 2030 NDC를 직접적 으로 활용하는 본 연구의 방법상 제시하지 못하였다. 이는 시나리오의 가정이 미래 전망에 반영되는 과정을 연차별로 확인할 수 없다는 한계가 있음을 의미하며, 후속 연구에서는 구체적인 연차별 시나리오 구성에 대한 검토가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.
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Executive Summary ∣ 117
Executive Summary
Ⅰ. Objective of Research
❏ 2030 particulate matter concentration forecast based on the implementation of carbon neutral strategies
ㅇ The goal of this study is to forecast particulate matter air quality in 2030 while taking into account changes in air pollutant emissions in accordance with the national GHG reduction goal. It also aims to present policy direction on achieving effective reduction of air pollutants through a two-year study.
ㅇ The following year’s study depicts the effect of improving the emission and concentration of particulate matter related air pollutants by 2030 based on the increase in the national GHG reduction target, and presents implications from the perspective of air quality improvement.
Ⅱ. Current Status of Carbon Neutrality and Particulate Matter Policies
1. Current satus of the revised 2030 NDC
❏ As the 2030 NDC upward revision indicates an intermediate goal of carbon neutrality, it has been strengthened with a 40% reduction target, in comparison to the 2018 emissions.
ㅇ With the adoption of the Paris Agreement by the international community, Korea established the 2030 NDC in 2015, and since then, it has been strongly committed to reducing GHG emissions by gradually strengthening the target.
2. Current Implementation Status of particulate matter Related Policies
❏ Policies are being strengthened due to the increase of damage caused by particulate matter
ㅇ In 2016, the issue of high concentration particulate matter intensified followed by the establishment of the 뺷Special Measures for Particulate Matter Control뺸. Accordingly the detailed measures per each field were presented.
ㅇ As the issue of high concentration particulate matter continued, the 뺷 Strengthened Management of Emergency and Regular Particulate Matter뺸 was established in 2018, and was followed by the 뺷Special Act on particulate matter뺸next year, and the national and regional target concentrations and emission rates were set and managed with the implementation of the 뺷Air Management Area Act뺸.
Ⅲ. Estimation of 2030 Emissions Based on Carbon Neutral Implementations
1. Methods to forecast domestic 2030 emissions
❏ Establishing scenarios for 2030 domestic air pollutant emissions
ㅇ The research was conducted with the baseline scenario of the carbon neutral plan not being implemented and the amount of change that the carbon neutral strategy (NDC) scenario will bring when implemented.
❏ Estimation System of Air Pollutant Emissions by Scenario
ㅇ To define the changes in air pollution from the implementation of carbon
Executive Summary ∣ 119
neutrality, the future emissions by scenario was estimated based on the analysis system defined below,
- Target period: 2030 projections compared to the base year (2018) - Substance to be analyzed: Particulate Matter direct and precursors (PM2.5,
SOx, NOx, VOCs, NH3)
- Classification of viewing area (spatial resolution): Nationwide - Time unit of emission data: Annual emissions
- Emission source (sector) classification: Derived per sector based on the sector stated in the national GHG reduction target (NDC)
ㅇ For the evaluation of the implementation of the national carbon neutral strategy, the definition of the emission sector referred to the carbon neutral strategy, yet the air pollutant emission data was based on the national air pollutant emission data (CAPSS). Accordingly, proper mapping of CAPSS emissions sources to areas stated in the Carbon Neutral Strategy is applied.
2. Estimation of emissions by sector
❏ Energy Sector
ㅇ Establish power composition data based on 2030 by reflecting new operations and shutdowns by 2030 according to the carbon neutral strategy of the government and the 9th power supply and demand plan
ㅇ Based on the power supply composition in 2030, the annual amount of power generation by its unit is derived in accordance to the GHG reduction target within the 2030 national GHG reduction target. Adjustment of the utilization rate of nuclear, coal and LNG generators to achieve the target based on the 2018 performance utilization rate of each generator ㅇ To derive the air pollutant emissions by generator, the air pollutant
emissions were estimated by using emission factors based on the TMS
emission data and power generation performance
ㅇ Compared to the baseline scenario, the NDC scenario is estimated to significantly reduce air pollutants namely NOx and SOx.
ㅇ However, in the case of the NDC scenario, NH3 is estimated to slightly increase, as the structure in which LNG power generation and renewable energy replaces the reduced coal power generation
❏ Transport Sector
ㅇ Regarding the baseline projections, the 2030 vehicle registration of the NDC was reflected. The composition ratio of vehicle types is assumed to be the same as the current status. Old cars (grade 5) are presumed to phase out naturally and also due to atmospheric policies. The natural disposal rate by vehicle and its type was considered. Also the deterioration coefficient due to aging was referred. The 1st Particulate Matter Comprehensive Plan was reflected as well.
ㅇ According to the result of the transportation sector forecast, PM2.5, NOx, and VOCs decreases (-25 to –41%), while SOx increases (+32%). The impact of the natural phase out of old diesel cars and the introduction of new cars is significant. The road resuspended dust has increased due to the increase of the total number of cars.
ㅇ Within the transportation sector, through demand management, most of the total emissions decreased by -17%, which indicates the effect of the average mileage reduction rate
ㅇ Through the eco friendly vehicle supply policy, PM2.5; 13%, SOx; 15%, NOx;
15%, VOCs; 15% is each estimated to be reduced at the stated rate compared to the forecast regarding demand management in 2030