Warmer or colder South Korean relations with North Korea over the years have not resolved the North Korea problem and the debates within South Africa. Victor Cha and David Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003). Patrick McEachern, Inside the Red Box: North Korea's Post-Totalitarian Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010).
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007), pp. North Korea no more trusts the United States or South Korea than these countries trust the North. To respond directly to North Korea's rhetoric is to let the North determine the pace and intensity of the relationship.
Secretary Kerry's First Visit to Northeast Asia: Rolling North Korea's Rock Back Up the Hill.” Asia Unbound Blog, April 16, 2013, http://.
The Trust-building Process on the Korean Peninsula
A Paradigm Shift in Seoul’s North Korea Policy
South Korea's negative perception of the North has only been exacerbated by North Korea's third nuclear test. North Korea is also seeking bilateral talks with Washington first, rather than improving inter-Korean relations. The confidence-building process is also necessary to maintain a consistent North Korea policy.
The Trust Building Process on the Korean Peninsula can be seen as a shift in the North Korean policy paradigm. There are no fantastic slogans or dramatic visions in the Park Geunhye government's North Korea policy. However, the Trust-building process is not impossible, even without North Korea's positive reactions.
The real crisis of the Confidence Building Process is not North Korea's provocations, but the end of communications.
The Park Geun-hye Government’s Role in a Needed New Strategy toward North Korea
My article on North Korea's development of nuclear warheads, published by the South Korean Institute for National Security Strategy in. North Korea's nuclear test was followed by an outburst of North Korean threats against South Korea and the United States: Threats to launch nuclear weapons against the United States States and US negotiating a West Sea border: North's military provocations -Korea against South Korea could take the form of attacks on the South Korean islands in the West Sea, close to the North Korean mainland.
The first tranche of large-scale food aid would follow North Korea's commitment to agricultural reforms. One such proposal could be South Korea's assistance in reforesting exposed North Korean hills – a major cause of North Korea's ongoing flooding. Third, any Korean peace treaty must resolve major South-North issues and normalize relations between South Korea and North Korea.
President Park's proposal for multiple South-North negotiations will not be a substitute for South Korea's role in enhancing deterrence against North Korea. South Korea and the United States have worked to improve deterrence against North Korea since North Korea's provocations in 2010. Deterrence has worked well to discourage North Korea from launching a new invasion of South Korea.
Military provocations, terrorist acts, and threatening rhetoric have been key manifestations of North Korea's intimidation diplomacy. The second reason is that a quick retaliation would give North Korea less time to consider further escalation in response to South Korean retaliation. Fifth, there may be more questions and problems in the implementation of the counter-provocation policy against North Korea's terrorist acts.
Her position may also be influenced by the existence or absence of North Korea's nuclear threat crises. When North Korea puts nuclear warheads on its missiles.” The Journal of East Asian Affairs, Vol.
Kim Jong Un’s First 500 Days
Consolidating Power and Clearing Political Space for National Revival*
These officials were part of the initial succession support group that was ousted by Kim Jong Il after the Third Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) Conference in September 2010. The overhaul of the government inherited by Kim Jong Un will not be complete until he replaces the nominal head of state and places his confidant in this important post. Since the death of Kim Jong Il, the Kim family continues to rule North Korea for the seventh decade in a row.
KPA Acting Chief of General Political Department (GPD) and later Defense Minister Kim Jong Gak November 2012.29. In any case, the fates of the former wives of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il are unfortunate. There is no doubt that the era of the Kim Jong Il-inspired First Army is coming to an end.
It took Kim Jong Un less than months before he began to change his father's military-first policy. Over the past year and a half, Kim Jong Un has overhauled several parts of the national security establishment he inherited from Kim Jong Il and appointed his own key security aides. Kwon Yang Chu, “Weekly Defense Forum” [chugankukpangnondan]: “Kim Jong Un's Regime on the Military and Prospects for the Military's Role” (in Korean) (Seoul: Center for Military Planning of Korea Institute for Defense Analyzes, 2012 ).
In these events, Kim Jong-un appears to be paying increasing attention, at least in terms of weapons development, to Hong Su˘ng Mu, who is responsible for the North's nuclear weapons promotion. Since his inauguration, Kim Jong Un has revamped the national economic team, reaffirming the Cabinet's central role in policymaking. New vice prime ministers, ministers and provincial leaders of the rural economy appointed by Kim Jong Un from 2012 to June 2013.
During his first year and a half in power, Kim Jong Un has made some adjustments to the strategic foreign policy line he inherited from his father. Kim Jong Il's death was kept secret for 2 days due to fears of civil unrest." Yomiuri Simbun, December 26, 2012.
Beijing’s Dilemma and Preference on the Korean Peninsula
Responses to the 2010 Korean Crises
After the breakup of the former Soviet Union in 1991, China, along with the US, exerted a more decisive influence over the Korean Peninsula. The international community has generally agreed to impose sanctions on Pyongyang's brutal behavior; However, China seemed oblivious to the consensus. Taewan Kim, “China Between the Two Koreas: Dilemma of the Korean Peninsula Policy,” Journal of International Politics, Vol.
China's responses to the sinking of the ROK Navy corvette Cheonan (PCC-772) and the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island differ in terms of its speed and clear position. Compared to the swift sympathy of the other neighboring countries and the international community, Beijing's late response was enough to irritate Seoul. It is no wonder that China seemed to be at a loss for words after the sinking of the ROK Navy corvette Cheonan (PCC-772).
Regarding China's changed behavior after the 2012 missile launch and the third nuclear test, one can explain that domestic and international feedback worked within the inner circle of Beijing's leadership. If Pyongyang collapses, Seoul will likely intervene in the DPRK to achieve the unification of the peninsula. This was before the official investigation into the sinking of the ROK Navy corvette Cheonan (PCC-772) was released.
Even during the 2010 Korean crises, Beijing and Seoul broke the record for the largest trade volume, despite their political estrangement. It could just as easily be the unification of the two Koreas, or a permanent division. On the other hand, it has not been verified whether reunification of the Peninsula will contribute to or harm China's national priorities.
For example, that the division of the Korean peninsula would cost more than the cost of unification. China Between the Two Koreas: The Dilemma of Korean Peninsula Politics.” Journal of International Politics, Vol.
Korea and Australia in the New Asian Century
South Korea and Australia perceive each other as important like-minded middle powers that can contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region. It is therefore imperative for the future of the Asia-Pacific that South Korea and Australia - two of the most successful and stable democracies in the region - establish strategic linkages vertically across the Pacific. As the global and regional security environment continues to evolve, the growing importance of the Asia-Pacific cannot be overemphasized.
In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the coming decades will be shaped and led by the development of the Asia-Pacific. The ROK-US Joint Forces Command is considered the most successful joint security arrangement in US history, South Korea and Australia are jointly tasked with confronting China's growing power and influence in the Asia region - Peaceful.
What is clear is that it is in the strategic interests of South Korea and Australia to ensure that the US, capitalizing on the geopolitical and socio-economic middle ground that both nations have in the region, South Korea and Australia should work together to establish themselves as mediators in the region; channeling these shared values to the rest of the Asia-Pacific and thus enhancing the security perspective of the region as a whole. Australia also participated in the recent Key Resolve exercise on the Korean Peninsula as a member of the United Nations Command along with the United Kingdom, Canada, Denmark and Colombia.
On a global level, South Korea and Australia can strengthen cooperation in the UN Security Council, where both act as non-permanent members. The German model of immediate peaceful unification in the form of the collapse of the Berlin Wall will not work in Korea. The UN Command will move to mobilize international support for the alliance to ensure and protect the peace and security of the Korean Peninsula.
The prospect of the 'Asian century' will not materialize without an effective and lasting solution to the Asian paradox. The views in the journal are the individual contributions and do not necessarily represent the views of KINU.
