(1)(2) 최종 보고서. 동북아 에너지협력 연구 - 동북아 국가의 에너지 산업 비교우위 분석 -. 2003. 8. (3) 제 출 문 산업자원부 장관 귀하. 본 보고서를 정책연구과제『동북아 에너지협력 연구』중 세부 과제 “동북아 국가의 에너지산업(석유 및 전력산업) 비교우위 분석연구”의 최종보고서로 제출합니다.. 2003년 8월. 에너지경제연구원장. <참여 연구진> □ 총괄책임자 : 이상곤 에너지경제연구원장 □ 연구책임자： 유승직. 연구위원. 에너지경제연구원. □ 원내참여자： 마용선. 연구원. 에너지경제연구원. 유혜영. 위촉연구원. 에너지경제연구원. □ 원외참여자： 유정식. 교수. 연세대학교. 이태정. 교수. 연세대학교. 조광현. 회계사. 일신회계법인. (4) i. 제목차례 제1장 서 론 ······································································································ 1. 제2장 동북아 에너지 시장 현황 및 전망 ······················································· 7 제1절 동북아 에너지 수급현황 및 전망 ··································································· 8 1. 동북아 에너지수급 현황 ·················································································· 8 2. 에너지 수요 전망 ··························································································· 13 제2절 에너지원별 시장현황 및 전망 ······································································· 24 1. 석유 ················································································································ 24 가. 석유 매장량 및 수급 현황 ······································································· 24 나. 국제 석유 시장의 특성 ············································································· 27 다. 중국 ··········································································································· 30 라. 러시아 ······································································································· 34 마. 한국 ··········································································································· 37 바. 일본 ··········································································································· 39 2. 석탄 ················································································································ 40 가. 석탄 매장량 및 수급 현황 ······································································· 40 나. 국제 석탄 시장의 특성 ············································································· 44 다. 중국 ··········································································································· 47 라. 러시아 ······································································································· 49 마. 한국 ··········································································································· 50 바. 일본 ··········································································································· 51 3. 천연가스 ········································································································· 52 가. 천연가스 매장량 및 수급 현황 ································································ 52. (5) ii. 나. 국제 가스시장의 시장의 특성 ·································································· 55 다. 중국 ··········································································································· 57 라. 러시아 ······································································································· 60 마. 한국 ··········································································································· 63 바. 일본 ··········································································································· 64 4. 전력 ················································································································ 64 가. 중국 ··········································································································· 64 나. 러시아 ······································································································· 68 다. 한국 ··········································································································· 70 라. 일본 ··········································································································· 72 제3절 에너지수요에 영향을 미치는 요인들 ···························································· 74 1. 인구구조 등의 수요에 미치는 요소의 변화 ·················································· 75 2. 정부정책 ········································································································· 76 가. 중국 ··········································································································· 76 나. 러시아 ······································································································· 78 다. 한국 ··········································································································· 78 라. 일본 ··········································································································· 80. 제3장 동북아 에너지 기업의 경쟁력 비교 분석 ·········································· 83 제1절 기업의 경쟁력 ······························································································· 83 1. 기업 경쟁력의 개념 및 원천 ········································································· 83 2. 기업 경쟁력 분석 범위 및 방법 ···································································· 86 3. 대상 기업 선정 및 분석의 한계 ···································································· 96 제2절 동북아 에너지 기업의 경쟁력 비교 분석 ····················································· 98 1. 분석 대상 기업의 개요 ·················································································· 98 가. 전력 산업 ································································································ 98 나. 석유 화학 산업 ····················································································· 102. (6) iii. 2. 전력기업의 비교 분석 ·················································································· 105 가. 안전성지표 ······························································································ 106 나. 수익성지표 ······························································································ 114 다. 성장성 및 활동성지표 ············································································· 121 라. 생산성 및 설비운영 ················································································ 126 3. 석유 기업의 비교 분석 ················································································ 133 가. 안전성지표 ······························································································ 137 나. 수익성지표 ······························································································ 143 다. 성장성 및 활동성지표 ············································································· 150 라. 생산성 및 설비운영 ················································································ 156 4. 에너지 협력을 위한 시사점 ········································································· 162 가. 전력 기업 ································································································ 162 나. 석유 기업 ································································································ 164. 제4장 동북아 국가의 에너지 산업 비교우위 평가 ···································· 167 제1절 비교우위에 관한 경제이론 ·········································································· 167 1. 비교우위에 관한 학설사적 검토 ·································································· 167 2. 비교우위 측정 지수 ····················································································· 172 가. 현시된 비교우위 ····················································································· 172 나. EAI-SAI-AAI 방법 ·················································································· 174 다. 점유율 변동지수 ····················································································· 175 라. 산업 내 무역지수 ···················································································· 176 마. 수출경합도지수 및 수출결합도지수 ······················································ 176 제2절 기초자료분석 ······························································································· 177 1. 기초 자료의 수집 ······················································································· 177 가. 석유와 관련된 동북아 국가간 상호무역량 ··········································· 177 나. 석유제품별 무역관련 자료 ···································································· 178. (7) iv. 다. 에너지 가격 및 조세 ·············································································· 178 2. 기초자료분석 ······························································································ 178 가. 석유와 관련된 동북아 국가간 상호무역량 ··········································· 178 나. 석유제품별 관련 자료 ··········································································· 185 다. 에너지 가격 및 조세 ············································································· 188 제3절 비교우위지수의 측정 및 변화추이 ······························································ 190 1. RCA 지수 ····································································································· 190 가. RCA 1 ····································································································· 190 나. RCA2 ····································································································· 194 다. RCA3 ······································································································· 198 라. RCA4 ······································································································· 202 마. RCA5 ······································································································· 204 바. 점유율 변동지수 ···················································································· 204 사. 산업 내 무역지수 ···················································································· 208 아. 효율우위지수 ························································································· 212 자. 규모우위지수 (SAI) ················································································· 216 차. 총우위지수 ····························································································· 221 카. 수출경합도지수 ······················································································· 225 타. 수출결합도 지수 ····················································································· 227 제4절 요약 및 시사점 ···························································································· 229 1. 비교우위지수 요약 ······················································································· 229 2. 산업집중도의 문제 ······················································································· 232 3. 시사점 ··········································································································· 234. 제5장 동북아 국가의 대외무역 정책의 변화 ·············································· 237 제1절 각국의 대외 무역제도 ················································································· 237 1. 우리나라 ····································································································· 237. (8) v. 가. 우리나라의 무역정책 개관 ······································································ 237 나. 우리나라 석유산업의 개방화 정책 ························································· 239 2. 중국 ·············································································································· 242 가. 중국 무역정책의 기조 ············································································· 242 나. WTO 가입에 따른 중국 무역정책의 변화 ············································· 243 3. 일본 ·············································································································· 248 가. 무역정책 개관 ························································································· 248 나. 관세정책 ·································································································· 249 다. 비관세정책 ······························································································ 251 라. 석유산업의 규제완화 ·············································································· 253 제2절 동북아시아 각국의 석유관련 관세 및 기타 무역장벽 ································ 254 1. 관세 ·············································································································· 254 2. 비관세 장벽 ·································································································· 258. 제6장 요약 및 결론 ······················································································ 265. <참고문헌> ···································································································· 273. (9) vi. <표 차례> <표 2-1> 동북아 국가 1차에너지 원별소비 현황 ························································ 9 <표 2-2> 북한과 몽골의 1차에너지 원별소비 현황 ··················································· 10 <표 2-3> 동북아 국가 1차에너지 원별 생산현황 ······················································· 12 <표 2-4> 수요전망을 위한 기본 가정 ········································································ 14 <표 2-5> 중국의 1차에너지 원별 소비 전망 ······························································ 15 <표 2-6> 중국의 원별, 부문별 최종에너지 소비 전망 ··············································· 16 <표 2-7> 러시아의 1차에너지 원별 소비 전망 ·························································· 18 <표 2-8> 러시아의 원별, 부문별 최종에너지 소비 전망 ··········································· 19 <표 2-9> 한국의 1차에너지 원별 소비 전망 ······························································ 20 <표 2-10> 한국의 원별, 부문별 최종에너지 소비 전망 ············································· 21 <표 2-11> 일본의 1차에너지 원별 소비 전망 ···························································· 22 <표 2-12> 일본의 원별, 부문별 최종에너지 소비 전망 ············································· 23 <표 2-13> 2002년말 석유의 확인 매장량, 점유율 및 R/P비율 ································· 24 <표 2-14> 석유 생산 현황 ·························································································· 25 <표 2-15> 석유 소비 현황 ·························································································· 26 <표 2-16> 2002년 세계 석유교역 현황 ······································································ 28 <표 2-17> 중국의 석유제품 밸런스 전망 ··································································· 32 <표 2-18> 러시아의 파이프라인 프로젝트 ································································· 37 <표 2-19> 한국의 석유제품 밸런스 전망 ··································································· 38 <표 2-20> 일본의 석유제품 수요 전망 ······································································ 39 <표 2-21> 2002년말 석탄의 확인 매장량, 점유율 및 R/P비율 ································· 40 <표 2-22> 석탄 생산 현황 ·························································································· 42 <표 2-23> 석탄 소비 현황 ·························································································· 43 <표 2-24> 세계 상위 10개사의 2000년 석탄 생산과 수출 ······································· 44. (10) vii. <표 2-25> 2002년말 천연가스 확인 매장량, 점유율 및 R/P비율 ····························· 52 <표 2-26> 천연가스 생산 현황 ··················································································· 53 <표 2-27> 천연가스 소비 현황 ··················································································· 54 <표 2-28> 중국의 원별 발전 전망 ············································································· 65 <표 2-29> 중국의 연료별 발전설비 전망 ··································································· 66 <표 2-30> 러시아의 원별 발전 전망 ·········································································· 69 <표 2-31> 러시아의 연료별 발전설비 전망 ······························································· 70 <표 2-32> 한국의 원별 발전 전망 ············································································· 71 <표 2-33> 한국의 연료별 발전설비 전망 ··································································· 71 <표 2-34> 일본의 원자력 발전소 건설 계획 ······························································ 73 <표 2-35> 석유제품 가격 조정 계획 ········································································ 79 <표 2-36> 일본의 2010의 에너지 사용 감소를 위한 계획된 새로운 정책수단 ········· 81 <표 3-1> 분석대상기업 재무현황표- 작성통화기준 ·················································· 107 <표 3-2> 분석대상기업 재무현황표- 원화기준 ························································· 108 <표 3-3> 분석대상기업 재무 비율 ············································································ 109 <표 3-4> 전력회사의 유동비율 비교 ········································································ 110 <표 3-5> 유동비율의 국제 비교 ··············································································· 110 <표 3-6> 전력기업간 부채비율 비교 ········································································ 111 <표 3-7> 부채비율의 국제 비교 ············································································· 112 <표 3-8> 전력기업간 차입금의존도 비교 ······························································· 112 <표 3-9> 차입금 의존도의 국제 비교 ······································································ 112 <표 3-10> 전력기업간 영업이익대비 이자보상비율 비교 ········································ 113 <표 3-11> 영업이익대비이자보상비율의 국제 비교 ··············································· 114 <표 3-12> 전력기업간 매출액 영업이익률 비교 ······················································· 115 <표 3-13> 매출액영업이익률의 국제 비교 ······························································· 115 <표 3-14> 전력기업간 매출액순이익률 비교 ···························································· 116 <표 3-15> 매출액순이익률의 국제 비교 ··································································· 117. (11) viii. <표 3-16> 전력기업간 총자산순이익률 비교 ···························································· 118 <표 3-17> 총자산순이익률의 국제 비교 ··································································· 119 <표 3-18> 전력기업간 자기자본순이익률 비교 ························································ 120 <표 3-19> 자기자본순이익률의 국제 비교 ······························································· 120 <표 3-20> 전력기업간 총자산대비 영업이익흐름비율 비교 ····································· 121 <표 3-21> 전력기업간 매출액증가율 비교 ······························································· 122 <표 3-22> 전력기업간 영업이익증가율 비교 ···························································· 123 <표 3-23> 전력기업간 순이익증가율 비교 ······························································· 124 <표 3-24> 전력기업간 총자산증가율 비교 ······························································· 125 <표 3-25> 전력기업간 자산회전율 비교 ··································································· 126 <표 3-26> 자산회전율의 국제 비교 ·········································································· 126 <표 3-27> 전력기업간 종업원 1인당 부가가치 비교 ··············································· 128 <표 3-28> 전력기업간 종업원 1인당 인건비 비교 ················································· 129 <표 3-29> 전력기업간 총자본투자효율 비교 ···························································· 130 <표 3-30> 전력기업간 설비투자효율 비교 ······························································· 130 <표 3-31> 전력기업간 노동소득분배율 비교 ···························································· 131 <표 3-32> 전력기업간 부가가치율 비교 ··································································· 132 <표 3-33> 분석대상기업 재무현황표- 작성 통화 기준 ············································· 135 <표 3-34> 분석대상기업 재무현황표- 원화 통화 기준 ············································· 136 <표 3-35> 분석대상기업 재무비율 ············································································ 137 <표 3-36> 석유회사의 유동비율 비교 ······································································ 138 <표 3-37> 유동비율의 국제 비교 ············································································· 139 <표 3-38> 석유회사 부채비율 비교 ·········································································· 140 <표 3-39> 부채비율의 국제 비교 ············································································· 140 <표 3-40> 석유회사 차입금의존도 비교 ··································································· 141 <표 3-41> 차입금 의존도의 국제 비교 ····································································· 141 <표 3-42> 석유회사 영업이익대비 이자보상비율 비교 ············································ 142. (12) ix. <표 3-43> 영업이익대비이자보상비율의 국제 비교. ·············································· 142. <표 3-44> 석유회사 매출액 영업이익률 비교 ·························································· 143 <표 3-45> 매출액영업이익률의 국제 비교 ······························································· 144 <표 3-46> 석유회사 매출액순이익률 비교 ······························································· 145 <표 3-47> 매출액순이익률의 국제 비교 ··································································· 145 <표 3-48> 석유회사 총자산순이익률 비교 ······························································· 147 <표 3-49> 총자산순이익률의 국제 비교 ··································································· 147 <표 3-50> 석유회사 자기자본순이익률 비교 ···························································· 148 <표 3-51> 자기자본순이익률의 국제 비교 ······························································· 149 <표 3-52> 석유회사 총자산대비 영업이익현금흐름비율 비교 ································· 150 <표 3-53> 석유회사 매출액증가율 비교 ··································································· 152 <표 3-54> 석유회사 영업이익증가율 비교 ······························································· 153 <표 3-55> 석유회사 순이익증가율 비교 ··································································· 154 <표 3-56> 석유회사 총자산증가율 비교 ··································································· 155 <표 3-57> 석유회사 자산회전율 비교 ······································································ 156 <표 3-58> 자산회전율의 국제 비교 ·········································································· 156 <표 3-59> 석유회사 종업원 1인당 부가가치 비교 ··················································· 158 <표 3-60> 석유회사 종업원 1인당 인건비 비교 ······················································· 159 <표 3-61> 석유회사 총자본투자효율 비교 ······························································· 159 <표 3-62> 석유회사 설비투자효율 비교 ··································································· 160 <표 3-63> 석유회사 노동소득분배율 비교 ······························································· 161 <표 3-64> 석유회사 부가가치율 비교 ······································································ 162 <표 4-1> 원유수입가 (US Dollars/bbl) ·································································· 189 <표 4-2> 평균 가격 및 조세 ···················································································· 190 <표 4-3> RCA1: 한국 ······························································································· 191 <표 4-4> RCA1: 중국 ······························································································· 192 <표 4-5> RCA1: 일본 ······························································································· 193. (13) x. <표 4-6> RCA1: 러시아 ···························································································· 194 <표 4-7> RCA2: 한국 ······························································································· 195 <표 4-8> RCA2: 중국 ······························································································· 196 <표 4-9> RCA2: 일본 ······························································································· 197 <표 4-10> RCA2: 러시아 ·························································································· 198 <표 4-11> RCA3: 한국 ······························································································ 199 <표 4-12> RCA3: 중국 ······························································································ 200 <표 4-13> RCA3: 일본 ······························································································ 201 <표 4-14> RCA3: 러시아 ·························································································· 202 <표 4-15> 중국시장에서의 RCA4(한국) ···································································· 203 <표 4-16> 중국시장에서의 RCA4(일본) ···································································· 203 <표 4-17> RCA5(한국) ······························································································ 204 <표 4-18> RCA5(일본) ······························································································ 204 <표 4-19> △Sij (점유율 변동지수 ) : 한국 ······························································ 205 <표 4-20> △Sij (점유율 변동지수 ) : 중국 ······························································ 206 <표 4-21> △Sij (점유율 변동지수 ) : 일본 ······························································ 207 <표 4-22> △Sij (점유율 변동지수 ) : 러시아 ·························································· 208 <표 4-23> GLi : 한국 ······························································································· 209 <표 4-24> GLi : 중국 ······························································································· 210 <표 4-25> GLi : 일본 ······························································································· 211 <표 4-26> GLi : 러시아 ···························································································· 212 <표 4-27> EAIij : 한국 ····························································································· 213 <표 4-28> EAIij : 중국 ····························································································· 214 <표 4-29> EAIij : 일본 ····························································································· 215 <표 4-30> EAIij : 러시아 ·························································································· 216 <표 4-31> SAIij : 한국 ······························································································ 217 <표 4-32> SAIij : 중국 ······························································································ 218. (14) xi. <표 4-33> SAIij : 일본 ······························································································ 219 <표 4-34> SAIij : 러시아 ·························································································· 220 <표 4-35> AAI- 한국 ································································································ 221 <표 4-36> AAI - 중국 ······························································································ 222 <표 4-37> AAI - 일본 ······························································································ 223 <표 4-38> AAI - 러시아 ··························································································· 224 <표 4-39> 산업별 한․중․일 수출경합도 추이 ······················································· 226 <표 4-40> 석유제품별 중국에서의 한일간 수출 경합도 ·········································· 227 <표 4-41> 한․중․일 3국의 산업별 수출결합도 ····················································· 228 <표 4-42> 일본시장에서의 한국의 무역결합도 ························································ 229 <표 4-43> 한국시장에서의 일본의 수출결합도 ························································ 229 <표 4-44> 시현된 비교우위 : 수출입 중심의 비교 ·················································· 230 <표 4-45> 시현된 비교우위 분석 결과 (1992~2000) ················································ 230 <표 4-46> 생산, 산업 내 무역 : 생산, 기호 차이 등 중심 ······································ 231 <표 4-47> 비교우위 분석 결과 (1992~2000) ····························································· 232 <표 4-48> 품목별 시계열 Ci(t) ················································································· 233 <표 5-1> 석유수출입관련 규제완화 ·········································································· 239 <표 5-2> 일본의 관세구조 ······················································································ 250 <표 5-3> 동북아 국가의 원유 및 석유제품에 대한 관세율 ····································· 256 <표 5-4> 국가별 고도화시설 보유현황 ····································································· 261. (15) xii. [그림 차례] [그림 2-1] 중국의 석유 밸런스 전망 ········································································ 31 [그림 2-2] 러시아의 석유 밸런스 전망 ······································································· 36 [그림 2-3] 세계에너지 소비에서 부분별 석탄 점유율 변화(%) ·································· 43 [그림 2-4] 중국의 부문별 석탄소비 전망 ··································································· 49 [그림 2-5] 중국의 천연가스 밸런스 전망 ································································· 59 [그림 2-6] 러시아의 천연가스 밸런스 전망 ······························································ 62 [그림 4-1] 한국의 원유 교역 ····················································································· 179 [그림 4-2] 일본의 원유 교역 ····················································································· 179 [그림 4-3] 중국의 원유 교역 ····················································································· 180 [그림 4-4] 러시아의 원유 교역 ················································································· 181 [그림 4-5] 한국의 석유제품 교역 ·············································································· 182 [그림 4-6] 일본의 석유제품 교역 ·············································································· 182 [그림 4-7] 중국의 석유제품 교역 ·············································································· 183 [그림 4-8] 러시아의 석유제품 교역 ·········································································· 184 [그림 4-9] RCA1 - 한국 ···························································································· 191 [그림 4-10] RCA1 - 중국 ·························································································· 192 [그림 4-11] RCA1 - 일본 ·························································································· 193 [그림 4-12] RCA1 - 러시아 ······················································································ 194 [그림 4-13] RCA2 - 한국 ·························································································· 195 [그림 4-14] RCA2 - 중국 ························································································ 196 [그림 4-15] RCA2 - 일본 ·························································································· 197 [그림 4-16] RCA2 - 러시아 ······················································································ 198 [그림 4-17] RCA3 - 한국 ·························································································· 199 [그림 4-18] RCA3 - 중국 ·························································································· 200. (16) xiii. [그림 4-19] RCA3 - 일본 ·························································································· 201 [그림 4-20] RCA3 - 러시아 ······················································································ 202 [그림 4-21] 점유율변동지수 - 한국 ··········································································· 205 [그림 4-22] 점유율변동지수 - 중국 ··········································································· 206 [그림 4-23] 점유율변동지수 - 일본 ··········································································· 207 [그림 4-24] 점유율변동지수 - 러시아 ······································································· 208 [그림 4-25] GLi - 한국 ····························································································· 209 [그림 4-26] GLi - 중국 ····························································································· 210 [그림 4-27] GLi - 일본 ····························································································· 211 [그림 4-28] GLi - 러시아 ·························································································· 212 [그림 4-29] EAIij - 한국 ··························································································· 213 [그림 4-30] EAIij - 중국 ··························································································· 214 [그림 4-31] EAIij - 일본 ··························································································· 215 [그림 4-32] EAIij - 러시아 ························································································ 216 [그림 4-33] SAIij - 한국 ···························································································· 217 [그림 4-34] SAIij - 중국 ···························································································· 218 [그림 4-35］SAIij - 일본 ··························································································· 219 [그림 4-36] SAIij - 러시아 ························································································ 220 [그림 4-37] AAI - 한국 ····························································································· 221 [그림 4-38] AAI - 중국 ····························································································· 222 [그림 4-39] AAI - 일본 ····························································································· 223 [그림 4-40] AAI - 러시아 ························································································· 224 [그림 4-41] 품목별Ci(t) ····························································································· 234. (17) 제1장 서론 1. 제1장 서 론 본 연구는 한국, 일본, 중국, 러시아 등 동북아 4개국의 석유 및 전력산업과 같은 에너지 산업의 비교우위를 분석하는 것이다. 최근 동북아 지역국가들 간의 경제공동 체를 형성하는 논의는 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 이처럼 활발히 논의되고 있는 경제 협력의 주요 대상 중에서 에너지 관련 협력은 매우 중요한 위치를 차지한다. 2002년 현재 동북아 4개국의 에너지 소비는 2,353백만toe로서 전 세계 에너지소비의 25%를 차지하고 있다. 동북아 4개국의 에너지 소비의 증가도 매우 빠른 속도로 이루어져 2002년도 전 세 계 에너지 소비가 2.6% 증가한 데 비하여 동북아 4개국의 에너지 소비는 2001년 대 비 7.8% 증가하였다. 향후 동북아의 에너지 소비 전망에 의하면 중국의 에너지 소비 는 급증하여 2002년 현재 동북아 국가 중 중국의 에너지 소비비중인 42.4%에서 50% 정도로 증가할 것으로 전망되고 있다. 동북아 국가들은 에너지 수요의 규모가 클 뿐만이 아니라 에너지 소비구조에 있어 서도 다양한 구조를 나타낸다. 2002년 1차에너지 소비를 볼 때 우리나라는 전체 에 너지의 50%이상을 석유에 의존하고 있지만 중국은 전체 에너지의 60%이상을 석탄에 의존하고 있으며 석유는 전체 에너지에서 약 25%를 차지한다. 일본은 우리나라와 비 슷한 에너지 소비구조를 보여 전체에너지의 48%를 석유가 차지하며 다음으로 석탄 이 21%를 차지한다. 러시아는 천연가스위주의 에너지 소비가 이루어져 천연가스가 전체에너지에서 차지하는 비중은 50%이상이며 석유와 석탄의 비중은 각각 19%와 15%이다. 이처럼 다양한 에너지 소비 구조는 만약 동북아 국가들이 에너지원의 보유 에 있어서 동일한 분포를 보이는 경우 수요의 차이로 인한 에너지원의 국가간 교역 이 상당한 크기의 경제적 이득을 동북아 국가에게 가져다 줄 수 있을 것이다. 이러한 동북아의 다양한 수요의 특성은 각국의 에너지원별 보유의 차이를 부분적 으로 나타낸다고 할 수 있다. 러시아의 경우 천연가스의 생산량은 2001년 기준 530.6. (18) 2. 백만toe이고 석유의 생산은 381.3백만toe로 천연가스와 석유의 높은 수준의 매장량을 반영한다고 할 수 있다. 중국의 경우에는 상대적으로 석탄의 생산이 높다. 2001년 기 준 석탄의 생산량은 680.7백만toe이다. 한편 중국의 석유 생산도 상당하여 2001년 현 재 178.4백만toe에 이른다. 널리 알려진 바와 같이 한국과 일본의 경우 석유, 천연가 스 등의 자원은 거의 매장되어 있지 않거나 매장되어 있어도 그 양이 매우 작다. 이러한 에너지원에 대한 다양한 수요와 공급으로 인하여 동북아 지역 국가 중 한 국과 일본은 거의 대부분의 에너지를 수입하고 있다. 중국은 급격한 경제성장과 환 경개선을 위한 노력의 결과 국내 석유자원의 생산이 많음에도 불구하고 석유를 수입 하는 국가가 되었으며 향후 중국의 석유 수입은 급속히 증가할 것으로 기대되고 있 다. 중국은 1993년 이후 석유제품의 순수입국이 되었으며 1996년 이후 원유의 순수 입국이 되었다. 그리고 에너지원의 공급에 있어서도 수요와 마찬가지로 국가별로 상 이한 구조를 보이므로 국가간 교역을 통하여 경제적 이득과 사회적 후생을 증대시킬 가능성이 충분히 존재한다고 할 수 있다. 에너지 자원의 국가간 교역, 즉 국제무역은 이러한 에너지원의 수요와 공급의 차 이를 보전하여 주는 기능을 하며 동북아 국가간의 에너지원의 교역은 그 잠재력이 매우 높다고 할 수 있다. 특히 동북아 지역은 대규모 에너지 공급원인 러시아와 충 분한 소득에 의해서 뒷받침되는 한국과 일본의 에너지 시장, 그리고 현재 급속도로 증가하는 중국의 수요시장이 존재한다. 따라서 동북아 경제협력의 큰 틀에서 추진되 는 에너지 분야의 협력은 그 잠재력이 매우 크며 이를 통한 동북아 국가들의 이득은 매우 클 것이 분명하다. 에너지경제연구원(2002)에 의하면 러시아의 석유매장량은 작게는 48.6억톤, 많게는 270억톤으로 추정되고 있다. 이처럼 대규모의 매장량을 갖고 있는 러시아가 동북아 의 에너지 협력에 적극적으로 참여할 경우, 동북아 지역에서 주요한 에너지 공급원 으로서의 역할을 수행할 수 있을 것이다. 특히 극동 러시아는 러시아 전체 석유매장 량의 5%정도를 차지하는 것으로 추정된다. 따라서 이 지역의 석유자원이 활발히 개 발되고 지리적 근접성의 장점을 살려 석유류의 국가간 교역이 활성화되면 주요 수출 국으로서의 위치를 차지할 것이다. 이러한 상황은 가스 및 전력의 경우에도 마찬가. (19) 제1장 서론 3. 지이다. 재화와 서비스의 국제무역에 있어서 단순한 자원의 매장여부 및 그 규모의 상대적 크기뿐만 아니라 해당 재화 및 서비스에 대한 수요의 차이도 중요한 결정요소이다. 동북아 국가들은 에너지원의 매장, 생산, 그리고 소비에 있어서 다양한 구조를 나타 낼 뿐만이 아니라 석유제품의 생산과 소비에 있어서도 다양한 특성을 나타낸다. 석 유는 원유의 형태로 국가간 이동을 하기도 하지만 정제과정을 거친 휘발유, 등유, 경 유, 그리고 중질유 등의 석유제품 형태로 국가간 이동을 하기도 한다. 일반적으로 석 유제품의 국가간 교역은 소비지 정제주의의 원칙이 강하게 지켜지는 상황 하에서는 그리 크지 않았다. 석유제품은 일종의 연산품으로 어느 특정상품만 독립적으로 생산할 수 있는 것이 아니라 여러 제품이 동시에 생산되는 특징이 있다. 따라서 어느 한 국가에서 특정 석유제품에 대하여 수요가 많은 경우 특정 석유제품을 소비지 정제주의에 입각하여 원유를 수입하여 자체적으로 정제를 하는 경우 다른 석유제품은 공급과잉이 된다. 따라서 이러한 석유제품은 수출을 통하여 그 수요처를 확보하여야 한다. 원유뿐만 아니라 석유제품에 대한 국제시장이 형성되고 이러한 시장이 활발하게 운영되는 경우 소비지 정제주의의 중요성은 낮아질 수 있다. 연산적으로 생산되는 여러 가지 석유제품의 수요를 종합적으로 고려하여 자국 내에서 정제 생산되는 석유 제품의 양을 결정하고 국내 수요에 비하여 부족한 석유제품의 경우에는 수입을, 반 대로 국내 수요에 비하여 과도하게 생산되는 석유제품의 경우에는 수출을 하는 전략 을 채택하는 것이 상대적으로 석유제품의 공급비용을 낮추고 그 결과 석유제품의 시 장 가격이 낮아져 소비자들의 후생을 증대시킬 수 있을 것이다. 동북아의 국가간 전력거래의 가능성은 동북아 국가들의 전력 생산의 구조차 그리 고 전력에 대한 시간대별, 계절별 소비의 차이를 이용하여 교역이 이루어지는 경우 동북아 국가의 전력 설비의 효율성을 높일 수 있다는 측면에서 많이 논의되어 왔다. 하지만 전력의 국가간 교역이 발생하기 위해서는 많은 기술적, 정치적 문제를 해결 하여야 한다. 따라서 동북아 지역 내 전력망을 연계하여 전력의 교역이 실질적으로 발생하기까지는 상당한 시간이 소요될 것으로 예상된다.. (20) 4. 본 연구에서는 최근 한창 논의되고 있는 동북아의 에너지협력이 보다 가시화되어 동북아의 에너지 교류가 활성화되는 경우 석유제품을 중심으로 교역이 어떠한 방향 으로 전개될 것인가에 대한 선행 연구로서 한국, 일본, 중국, 러시아 4개국의 석유제 품의 흐름을 비교우위 이론에 근거하여 실증적으로 살펴보고 있다. 리카도의 비교우 위에 의한 재화와 서비스의 국가간 이동을 설명하는 국제무역이론은 헥셔-올린, 하벌 러, 레온티에프, 러너에 의해서 지속적으로 발전하여 왔다. 이러한 국제무역이론은 국가간 생산기술, 생산요소의 부존량의 차이, 그리고 소비자 기호의 차이에 의해서 재화와 서비스의 교역방향이 결정되는 것으로 설명되고 있다. 석유제품의 국가간 수출입에 대한 비교우위 분석에 있어서 노동 등 생산요소의 상 대 가격 혹은 생산성의 차이를 이용할 수 있을 것이다. 그러나 석유제품별로 생산요 소의 생산성 등을 분해하여 생산함수 등을 추정하여야 하지만 이러한 접근은 상당한 양의 자료와 자료의 높은 수준의 질을 요구한다. 따라서 본 연구는 비교우위성이 교 역을 통하여 나타난다는 관점에서 국가간 석유제품의 교역의 특징을 중심으로 분석 하는 현시비교우위접근 방법을 이용하여 동북아 4개국의 석유제품 이동의 특징을 살 펴보고 있다. 그리고 보조적으로 현시비교우위지수이외에 노동, 기술, 부존량이 포괄 되어 나타나는 생산 및 규모면에서의 비교우위, 점유율 변동, 산업 내 무역지수 등의 지표를 살펴보고자 한다. 현시비교우위접근과 같은 동북아 4개국간의 국가간 석유제품의 이동에 관한 실증 적 분석의 기초로서 한국, 일본, 중국, 러시아 각국의 에너지 산업과 관련된 특징, 에 너지원별 생산 및 소비, 그리고 유통 구조의 특징 등을 상호 비교하며 그 흐름도 분 석하고 있다. 동북아 국가들의 잠재적 에너지 수요 전망은 동북아 지역의 에너지 산 업의 잠재적 규모를 결정지우며, 국내의 에너지 자원에 의한 공급여력을 초과하는 에너지 수요는 결국 이러한 에너지원의 국가간 이동을 통해서만이 달성될 수 있다. 앞에서 지적한 바와 같이 현재까지의 대부분의 석유제품의 교역이 소비지 정제주의 에 입각하여 자국 내에서 생산, 공급이 대부분 이루어지고 공급이 과잉이거나 부족 한 석유제품을 교역하는 특징도 참조하여야 할 것이다. 이러한 경우 어느 특정 석유 제품에 대한 수요를 충족시키기 위한 원유의 정제가 다른 석유제품의 교역에 영향을. (21) 제1장 서론 5. 미칠 수 있다. 이러한 에너지원, 혹은 석유제품과 같이 동일한 에너지지원에서 여러 가지 제품에 대한 수요와 공급의 차이를 이용하여 잠재적인 에너지원의 국가간 교역 을 유추할 수 있을 것이다. 동북아 각국의 석유산업 및 전력산업의 경쟁력을 상호 비교하기 위해서는 각국의 기업의 경영적인 요소도 중요하다. 일반적으로 기업의 경쟁력을 비교분석하는 데 있 어서 중요한 고려 요소는 생산하는 재화의 품질의 우수성, 생산 비용의 수준, 그리고 초과수익의 크기 등이다. 그러나 석유제품은 상대적으로 차별화가 쉽지 않으므로 생 산 비용, 그리고 국가간 제품의 운송에 따르는 비용이 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 한편 전력에 있어서도 각 국별 전원 구성의 차이 및 생산요소의 가격의 차이 등과 같은 비용측면의 차이가 경쟁력을 결정한다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 전제하에 비용측면 중심의 경쟁력을 살펴보기 위하여 동북 아 각 국의 대표적인 석유업체, 전력업체를 한 개씩 선택하여 각각의 기업의 재무구 조의 특성, 생산성, 그리고 비용의 특성 등을 재무자료를 이용하여 분석하고 있다. 경영분석은 기업의 재무제표를 비롯한 회계자료와 관련된 자료들을 기초로 기업의 과거와 현재의 경영성과 및 재무상태를 파악하고 그 원인을 규명하는 것이다. 이러한 경영분석은 기업의 유동성, 안정성, 생산성 지표, 수익성 등을 지표화하여 이를 근거로 기업의 경쟁력을 분석하는 것이라 할 수 있다. 이러한 분석을 위해서는 기업의 많은 사적인 정보를 필요로 한다. 하지만 이러한 정보에 대한 일반적인 접근 이 어려우므로 인건비, 재료비, 시설투자비 등 가능한 자료를 최대한 이용하여 일정 한 기준에 의해서 비교를 행하여야 한다. 또한 동북아 지역 내 국가 중 러시아와 중 국은 사회주의 국가에서 점차로 시장경제로 이행하거나 이행중인 국가로서 대부분의 에너지 산업이 국가에 의해서 소유, 운영되어 온 특징 때문에 회계의 기준 등이 상 이할 수 있다. 이러한 제약 하에서 본 연구는 해당회사의 산업 대표성뿐만 아니라 회계기준 등이 국제회계기준과 어느 정도 부합하는가도 고려하여 관련된 자료를 최 대한 수집하여 연구 결과의 신뢰성을 최대한 높이고자 하였다. 동북아 국가간 석유제품을 포함한 재화와 서비스의 이동에 있어서 각국의 에너지 기업들의 국제 경쟁력, 그리고 석유 등 에너지 산업 요소의 생산성, 소득, 부존자원. (22) 6. 이외에 석유제품의 국제 무역에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 또 다른 중요 요인으로서 동북 아 각국의 각종 무역 정책 및 석유산업의 환경 등이 있다. 동북아 각국의 원유 및 석유제품에 대한 관세의 차이는 해당 제품이 국내의 시장에서 거래되는 가격을 결정 한다. 관세 이외에도 석유제품의 유통에 관한 각종 규제, 그리고 석유 수출입에 대한 사업허가 등의 국가간 차이도 동북아 지역 내에서 석유제품이 교역되는 데 있어서 중요한 영향을 미친다. 추가적으로 한국, 일본, 중국 등 동북아시아 국가들이 세계무 역기구 (WTO)에 가입함으로서 석유제품의 수출입관련 각종 무역제도도 세계무역기 구가 추구하는 자유무역의 형태로 발전하게 될 것이다. 따라서 세계무역기구에 가입 에 따른 각국의 무역 정책의 변화 및 기본적 흐름도 살펴보는 것이 필요할 것이다. 본 보고서는 다음과 같이 구성되어 있다. 제2장에서는 동북아 각국의 에
