Fall 2018
Seoul National University - The University of Tokyo
Instructor: Prof. K.Y. Suh, 031-109, SNU ☎ +82-10-5003-8324 kysuh@snu.ac.kr 459.570A_002
EIFFEL: Energy Initiative for Future Engineer Leaders
Renewables w/ESS + Fossil w/CCS + Nuclear w/RWM + New w/H 2 +Fusion
- Efficiency - Savings = 0 CO 2
266 473
0 100 200 300 400 500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD
OECD quadrillion Btu
50 78
157
200 224 257
303
0 100 200 300 400 500
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Africa Asia
Middle East
Americas Europe and Eurasia
History Projection
356 410
523
575
610
661
739 quadrillion Btu
1.7%
0.4%
1.5%
1.6%
2.0%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
0% 2% 4% 6%
Total OECD Japan OECD Europe Canada South Korea United States Mexico/Chile Australia/New Zealand
4.1%
1.4%
1.6%
2.4%
2.5%
3.1%
3.8%
4.2%
4.5%
6.0%
0% 2% 4% 6%
Total Non-OECD Russia Brazil Other Americas Other Europe/Eurasia Middle East Africa Other Asia China India
OECD Non-OECD
229
182 161
38 129
0 50 100 150 200 250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Projection History
petroleum and other liquids
coal
natural gas
renewables
nuclear quadrillion Btu
211
237 245 255
276
181 196 206 227
259
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
industrial all other end- use sectors quadrillion Btu
9% 12% 13%
51%
33%
16%
33%
42%
47%
5% 12%
15%
3% 1%
9%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
China India Africa
mining agriculture
services
manufacturing construction
0%
5%
10%
15%
1983 1991 1999 2007 2015
China GDP
China total primary energy consumption
85
66
80 52
44
52
0 30 60 90 120 150
No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition
all other end-use sectors
industrial sector quadrillion Btu
17% 12% 11%
40%
39% 38%
41% 46% 48%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition
mining agriculture
services
manufacturing
construction
41% 35% 40%
15% 16% 16%
10% 11% 11%
7% 8% 7%
7% 7% 7%
20% 22% 20%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition
Rest of World
United States Middle East
other non-OECD Asia India
China
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
GDP per capita
2010 U.S. dollars per person Africa
million Btu per person
31
40 41 43
19
23 23 23
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
IEO2018 Reference Consumption-led Investment-led Export-led
all other end-use sectors
industrial sector quadrillion Btu
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
900 China
2000–2015
India (Export-led) 2006–2040
2006 2000
2015
2040
2037 2010 U.S. dollar index, selected start year = 100
18% 20%
19% 24%
47% 37%
10% 11%
7% 9%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
IEO2018 Reference Africa High Growth
mining
services
construction agriculture
manufacturing
2.2
7.9 3.9
2.7
10.9 4.9
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Nonmanufacturing Nonenergy-intensive
manufacturing Energy-intensive
manufacturing
Africa High Growth IEO2018 Reference Quadrillion Btu
