** ᩑᖙݡ⦺Ʊ Ŗŝݡ⦺ ࠥŖ⦺ŝ ᕾᔍŝᱶ ([email protected])
Received June 21, 2013/ revised June 24, 2013/ accepted June 27, 2013
Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers
ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹͷʹȀ ǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵ǤǤʹͶͺ͵ Ǥ ǤǤ
ጪ⸮⇧ⷓ⢛#㯓ⴂ#ⴲⱧ㬚#⺺⻏ኺ#⺺ᾎⴖ#ኞ❋ᦂḚ#♪ኞ⢪ᆿᦂ#␂ጎ⍂⛛
ࢼଗլ ȵੲটઽ ȵ୨෭
Bae, Yun Kyung*, Ahn Sunyoung**, Chung, Jin-hyuk***
Analysis on Comparison of Highway Accident Severity between Weekday and Weekend using Structural Equation Model
ABSTRACT
In order to identify and understand the crucial factors to induce traffic accident, causal relationships between diverse factors and traffic accident occurrence have been investigated continuously. It is one of most important issues all over the world to reduce the number of traffic accidents and deaths by them. Korea government is also stepping up their effort to reduce the number of traffic accidents and mitigate the severity of the accidents by establishing various traffic safety strategies. By introducing the five-day work week and increasing concern of leisure activities, the differences of trip characteristics between weekday and weekend is getting greater.
According to this, the patterns and crucial factors of traffic accident occurrence in weekend appear differently from those in weekday.
This study aims to understand major different factors affecting accident severity between weekday and weekend using 12,042 incident data occurred on freeways of Korea from 2006 to 2011. The model developed in this study estimated relationships among various exogenous factors of traffic accident by each type using SEM(Structural Equation Model). The result provides that road factors are related to the accident severity for weekday model, while environment factors affects on accident severity for weekend.
Key words : Traffic accident, Severity, SEM, Highway, Weekend
Ⅹಾ
Ʊ☖ᔍŁෝqᗭ┅Łᦩᱥᖒᮥ⨆ᔢ┅ʑ᭥⧕, ᔍŁᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ᯙॅᮥᇥᕾ⦹ᩍƱ☖ᔍŁෝᩩ⊂⦹۵༉⩶ᮡḡᗮᱢᮝಽ}ၽࡹᨕ
᪵݅. Ʊ☖ᔍŁqᗭ᪡ᔍŁᔍᯱqᗭᨱݡ⦽ྙᱽ۵ᖁḥǎŝ⬥ḥǎ༉ࢱᵲ⦽ྙᱽಽᕽ, ᬑญӹᨱᕽ۵ๅ⧕Ʊ☖ᔍŁqᗭෝ᭥⦽ᱶ
₦ၰႊᦩᮥᱽ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᵝ5ᯝᱽ⧪ŝᩍa⪽࠺ᨱݡ⦽šᝍ᮹᷾aಽᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹☖⧪➉▕ᮡ݅ෙ⩶┽ෝḡܩŁᯩᮝ໑, Ʊ☖ᔍŁ ᮹✚ᖒࠥษ₍aḡಽ݅íӹ┡ӽ݅. ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵ᯙᯕ݅ᨱݡ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ᯕ۵Łᗮࠥ
ಽᨱᕽၽᔾ⦽5֥࠺ᦩ᮹ᔍŁᯱഭෝǍ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶ᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ༉⩶᮹⇵ᱶđŝᵝᵲᔍŁᝍbࠥ༉⩶ᮡࠥಽᯙᯕᔍŁᝍ bࠥᨱaᰆⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᵝัᔍŁᝍbࠥ༉⩶ᮡᬕᱥᯱᯙᯕᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱaᰆⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ӹ
ᵝᵲŝᵝัᔍŁ᮹ᬱᯙ₉ᯕෝӹ┡ԩ݅.
áᔪᨕ Ʊ☖ᔍŁ, ᝍbࠥ༉⩶, Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ, Łᗮࠥಽ, ᵝั
İࣀėॡ
1. ᕽು
1.1 ֜ଭࢼլࢫࡧୡ
ᬑญӹ᮹Ʊ☖ᔍŁÕᙹ۵ๅ⧕qᗭ⦹۵⇵ᖙෝӹ┡ԕŁ
ᯩḡอ, ᵝᖁḥǎᨱእ⧕ᕽ۵ᩍᱥ⯩׳ᮡᝅᱶᯕ݅. Ʊ☖ᔍŁ
qᗭ᪡ ᔍŁᔍᯱ qᗭᨱ ݡ⦽ྙᱽ۵ ᖁḥǎŝ ⬥ḥǎ༉ࢱ
ᵲ⦽ྙᱽಽᕽ, ᬑญӹᨱᕽ۵ๅ⧕Ʊ☖ᔍŁqᗭෝ᭥⦽ᱶ₦
ၰႊᦩᮥᱽ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᵝ5ᯝᱽ⧪ŝᩍa⪽࠺ᨱݡ⦽šᝍ᮹
᷾aಽ ᵝᵲŝ ᵝั᮹ ☖⧪➉▕ᮡ ݅ෙ ⩶┽ෝ ḡܩŁ ᯩᮝ໑, Ʊ☖ᔍŁ᮹✚ᖒࠥษ₍aḡಽ݅íӹ┡ӽ݅. Ğₑℎ☖ĥᨱ
᮹⦹໕ 2011֥ ᬑญӹ ࠥಽᨱᕽ ၽᔾ⦽ ᱥℕ ᔍŁ Õᙹ۵
221,711Õᯕ໑, ᵝัᯙ☁ᯝŝᯝᯝᨱၽᔾ⦽ᔍŁ۵62,638 Õᮝಽᯝᵝᯝ⠪Ɂᅕ݅ⓑᙹ⊹ෝӹ┡ԕ໑. ✚⯩ӹᔍᔍŁ۵
ᯝᵝᯝ⠪Ɂᯙ747Õᅕ݅׳ᮡᙹ⊹ෝӹ┡ԙ݅. ݡ⩶Ʊ☖ᔍŁ
☖ĥᨱᕽ۵ᵝᵲᔍŁෝ༉ࢱ⧊⊽ᱶࠥ᮹ᔍŁÕᙹaᵝัᨱၽᔾ
⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ᔍᔍŁ᮹Ğᬑᵝᵲၽᔾ⦽ᔍŁÕᙹᯙ57Õᅕ݅׳ᮡ
ᙹ⊹ᯙ71Õᯕᵝัᨱၽᔾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕ۵ᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹☖⧪➉▕
✚ᖒᯕ݅Ł, Ʊ☖ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵ᯙᯕ݅݅۵äᮥ
᮹ၙ⦹໑ᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹ᔍŁšญ᮹₉ᄥ⪵᮹⦥ᖒᮥั⧕ᵝŁ
ᯩ݅. ੱ⦽ᵝั᮹☖⧪ᮡᵝᵲ☖⧪ŝ݅íݡᇡᇥᩍa☖⧪᮹
ᖒĊᯕv⦹ʑভྙᨱᬕᱥᯱ᮹⧪┽ӹᯖᙺ⦹ḡᦫᮡࠥಽᔢ⫊
॒ᨱ ෙ ᔍŁᬱᯙᯕ ⓕ äᮝಽ ᔾbࡽ݅.
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ŁᗮࠥಽᔍŁᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹
ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵ᩢ⨆ᨱݡ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔍŁÕᙹ᪡⧉̹
ᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥ۵ᵲ⦹íᯙࡹ۵ḡ⢽ᯕ໑, ࠥಽ᮹ʑ⦹Ǎ᳑ӹ
ᬕᱥᯱ⧪┽, ₉᳦, ԁᦉ॒ฯᮡᯙॅᨱ᮹⧕Ḣ,eᱲᱢᯙᩢ⨆ᮥ
ၼᮥäᮝಽ❱݉ࡽ݅. ᯕ్⦽ᯙॅᯕᅖᰂ⦽šĥෝaḡ໕ᕽ
ᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⋁äᮝಽᅕᯕ໑, Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶ᮡ
ᯕ్⦽ᄡᙹॅ᮹šĥෝ Ƚ⦹۵ߑᱢ⧊⦽༉⩶ᮝಽ❱݉ࡹᨕ
ᅙ ᩑǍᨱᕽ ᔍᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.
1.2 ֜ଭ࣐ࢫࢺ࣑
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵2006֥ᇡ░2010֥ʭḡŁᗮࠥಽᨱᕽၽᔾ⦽
ᔍŁᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵ᩢ⨆ᨱ
ݡ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. Łᗮࠥಽᨱᕽၽᔾ⦽ᯱഭ۵š⧁ḡᔍ, ᯝᯱ,
e, יᖁ, ᭥⊹, ႊ⧪॒᮹ᔍŁᨱš⦽Ǎℕᱢᔍ⧎ᮥʑಾ⦹ᩍ
šญ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᵝᵲ᮹ᔍŁÕᙹ۵8,152Õ, ᵝั᮹ᔍŁÕᙹ۵
3,530ÕᮝಽḲĥࡹᨩᮝ໑ᱥℕᔍŁÕᙹ۵12,042Õᯕ݅. ᇥᕾݡ ᔢŁᗮࠥಽ۵Ğᇡᖁ, Ğᯙᖁ, ᱽ2Ğᯙᖁ, ᩢ࠺ᖁ, ᕽᬙŞᙽ⪹ᖁ, ᵲᇡᖁ, ᱽ2ᵲᇡᖁ, ᕽ⧕ᦩᖁ॒ⅾ24}ᱥǎ᮹Łᗮࠥಽᯕ݅.
༉⩶ᮡǍ᳑ႊᱶᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, AMOS 20 ⥥ಽəఉ
ᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵ᯙᮡ݅ෙᔍŁǍ᳑ႊᱶ
༉⩶ᨱᕽᔍᬊ⧕᪉äౝࠥಽᯙ, ᬕᱥᯱᯙ, ⪹Ğᯙᮝಽ
Ǎᇥ⦹ᩍ b ᯙॅᮥ ݡ⢽⧁ ᙹ ᯩ۵ ᄡᙹॅᮥ ᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.
2. šಉᩑǍŁₑ
Ʊ☖ᔍŁᨱš⦽ᩑǍ۵᪅௹ᱥᇡ░ḡᗮᱢᮝಽᯕᨕᲙ᪵ᮝ ໑, əᬱᯙᮥᇥᕾ⦹ᩍ}ᖁ⦽Łšญ⦹ʑ᭥⦽יಆᮡ⪽ၽ⦹í
ᯕᨕᲭ݅. ݅᧲⦽ᇥᕾႊჶŝᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᔍŁෝᩩႊ⦹ʑ
᭥⦽ᩑǍॅᯕḥ⧪ࡹᨩ݅. ǎ☁ᩑǍᬱ(1996)᮹ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵Ʊ☖
ᦩᱥŝšಉᯕᯩ۵ࠥಽʑ⦹Ǎ᳑ᗭॅᮥࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅. ₉ಽ⡎, łᖁၹĞ, ᖁ⩶᮹ᩑᗮᖒ, ᳦݉Ğᔍ, Ñ, ʙᨕˉ⡎, ᵲᦺᇥญݡ᮹
7aḡࠥಽʑ⦹Ǎ᳑ᯙᮥƱ☖ᔍŁ᮹ᵝᩢ⨆ᯙᮝಽᖁᱶ⦹
ᩡ݅. ᯕ7aḡᯙᨱݡ⦹ᩍᔢݡᱢᯙᔍŁ᭥⨹ࠥෝӹ┡ԝᙹ
ᯩ۵ᔍŁ᭥⨹ࠥ❱݉ḡᙹෝ᳦ᗮᄡᙹಽ₥┾⦹ᩍ݉ᙽ⫭ȡ༉⩶ᮥ
⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ၶ⬉ᝁ(2007)ᮡ Ʊ☖ప, ࠥಽ ʑ⦹Ǎ᳑ ॒ŝ zᮡ
Ʊ☖ᔍŁᯙॅŝƱ☖ᔍŁ᪡᮹šĥෝᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᇥᕾ᮹ݡᔢ ḡᩎᮡŁᗮࠥಽ᮹✙ౝ⠌ᯙ░ℕᯙḡෝᇥᕾݡᔢᮝಽ⦹ᩡᮝ໑
ᔍŁ༉⩶ᮡᮭᯕ⧎ᇥ⡍ෝᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᩑđಽ᮹⩶┽ᄥಽᮭᯕ⧎⫭
ȡ༉⩶ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ༉⩶ᨱᯕᬊࡽᄡᙹ۵Ʊ☖ప, ᵲ₉పእᮉ,
ࠥಽ᮹łශၰłᖁᰆ, ᮁ⇽᯦ᩍᇡ॒ᯕ໑ᯕ్⦽ᄡᙹॅŝᔍŁ۵
šಉᯕ ᯩᮭᮥ ᅕᩡ݅.
ᯕᵝᩑ(2008)ᮡǍ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶ᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍŁᗮࠥಽ᮹Ʊ☖ᔍ Łᝍbࠥᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ᯙॅᮥᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔍŁᝍbࠥෝ
Ǎ᳑༉⩶᮹ԕᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᖁᱶ⦹Ł, ࠥಽᯙၰᬕᱥᯱᯙ,
⪹Ğᯙᮥᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᖅᱶ⦹ᩍ༉⩶ᮥ}ၽ⦹ᩡ݅. ⇵ᱶ
đŝ, ⠪໕ᖁ⩶ŝ ᳦݉Ǎ႑, י໕ᔢ┽ ၰ ԁᦉ۵ ᔍŁ ᝍbࠥ᪡
ᮭ᮹šĥᨱᯩ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᵝ᪡ᬱᯙ₉₉᳦, ᬕᱥᯱ
ᩑಚݡ۵ᔍŁᝍbࠥ᪡᧲᮹šĥᨱᯩ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ʡᔢಾ
(2010) ᮡ݉ᗮඹᖅᨱᕽၽᔾ⦽Ʊ☖ᔍŁᮁ⩶ᮥ₉ݡ₉ᔍŁ᪡
₉ݡ ᔍ௭ᔍŁಽ Ǎᇥ⦹ᩍᔍŁ᮹ ᵝᯙᮥ Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ ༉⩶ᮥ
ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᕽᬙᕽݡྙǍᨱᕽၽᔾ⦽Ʊ☖ᔍŁᯱഭෝ
ᇥᕾ⦹ᩡᮝ໑Ʊ☖ᔍŁᝍbࠥ᪡ᔾᱢᄡᙹॅe᮹šĥෝ⇵ᱶ⦹
ᩡ݅. ₉ݡ₉ᔍŁᨱᕽ۵ࠥಽᯙᯕᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹Ł, ₉ݡᔍ௭
ᔍŁᨱᕽ۵⪹ĞᱢᯙᯕⓍíᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅.
✚⯩ӹ ᵝัŝ ᵝᵲ᮹ ᔍŁᨱ š⦽ ᩑǍॅŝ Ŗ⮕ᯝ ᔍŁᨱ
š⦽ᩑǍॅࠥ݅᧲⦹íḥ⧪ࡹᨩ݅. ᯕ్⦽ᩑǍॅᮡᵝᵲŝᵝั
᮹Ʊ☖➉▕ᯕ݅Ł, ᵝั᮹Ʊ☖ᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥaᵝᵲ᮹ᔍŁᅕ
݅ᝍb⦹݅Łᱽ⦹Łᯩ݅(Gray et al., 2008; Quddus et al., 2010; Barua & Tay, 2010).
Gray et al.(2008)ᮡᩢǎ᮹ࠥಽᦩᱥࠥ⊂ᱶᮥ᭥⦹ᩍ13֥e ᮹ᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥෝᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᙽᕽ⩶⥥ಽኸ
༉⩶ᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ᔍᬊࡽᄡᙹ۵ᔍŁ᭥⊹, ᭥ၹᩍᇡ, ᩑಚ,
Table 1. Elements of Structural Equation Model
x q×1 vector of observed exogenous variables
Measurement Model
y p×1 vector of observed endogenous variables 쩍 n×1 vector of latent exogenous variables 쩆 m×1 vector of latent endogenous variables
쩃 q×1 vector of measurement error terms for observed variables x 쩄 p×1 vector of measurement error terms for observed variables y
쨪x The matrix(q×n) of structural coefficients for latent exogenous variables n to their observed indicator variables q 쨪y The matrix(p×m) of structural coefficients for latent exogenous variables m to their observed indicator variables p Structural Model
쨢 The matrix(m×n) of regression effects for latent exogenous variables n to latent endogenous variables m 쨡 The coefficient matrix (m×m) of direct effects between latent endogenous variables
쩅
Fig. 1. Structural Equation Model ḡᩎᱢ ⬉ŝ, ĥᱩᱢ ⬉ŝ, ᵝᵲ/ᵝั, ʑᔢᔢ┽, ࠥಽ ⢽໕ᔢ┽
॒᮹ᩍ్aḡ⬉ŝෝᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᵝᵲ, ᵝe, ᱡᗮࠥᨱᕽၽᔾ⦹
۵ᔍŁ۵ᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥaԏíӹ┡ӽၹ໕, ᵝั, e, Łᗮ₉ప, ᔍŁ݅ၽḡᱱ॒ᨱᕽၽᔾ⦹۵ᔍŁ۵⊹ᱢᯙᔍŁaฯᯕၽᔾ
⦹۵äᮝಽᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. Barua and Tay(2010)ᮡႊɡߑ᪡
zᮡ}ၽࠥᔢǎᨱᕽၽᔾ⦹۵ݡᵲƱ☖ᔍŁෝᙽᕽ⩶⥥ಽኸ༉
⩶ᮝಽᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. 1998֥ᇡ░2005֥ʭḡ᮹ᔍŁᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹
ᩡᮝ໑, ᔍŁÕᙹ᪡ ᔍŁᮉᮡ eᯕ ḡԉᨱ ᱱ₉ ᝍb⦽
ᔢ┽ᩡ݅. ᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥ۵ᵝั, እ℉ࢱ, ᧲ႊ⨆₉ಽ᮹ᔢ⫊ᨱᕽ
ᝍb⦽ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
ੱ⦽Anowar et al.(2013)᮹ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᵝัŝǎaŖ⮕ᯝᨱ
ၽᔾ⦹۵ᔍŁෝᩩႊ⦹Ł, ᱶ₦ᮥḲ⧪⦹ʑ᭥⦹ᩍᔍŁᨱᩢ⨆ᮥ
ᵝ۵ ᯙᨱ ݡ⦹ᩍ ᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ⋱ӹ݅ᨱᕽ 5֥ ࠺ᦩ ၽᔾ⦽
Ŗ⮕ᯝŝᵝั᮹ᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ಽḡᜅ❒⫭ȡ༉⩶ᮥᔍᬊ
⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᵝᵲ᮹ᔍŁᅕ݅ᵝัŝŖ⮕ᯝᨱᔍŁa
ฯᯕၽᔾ⦹Ł, ᔍŁ᮹ᝍbࠥࠥ׳ᮡäᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. Ŗ⮕ᯝŝ
ᵝัᨱ᭥⨹⦽ᬕᱥ⧪┽aฯᯕӹ┡ӹŁᗮࠥ᭥ၹࠥⓑäᮝಽ
ӹ┡ԍ݅.
3. Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶
Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶ᮡᔍ⫭⦺ၰᝍญ⦺ᨱᕽ}ၽࡽ⊂ᱶᯕುᨱ
☁ݡෝࢵ⪶ᯙᱢᯙᇥᕾŝĥపĞᱽ⦺ᨱᕽ}ၽࡽᩑพႊᱶ
༉ߙᨱ☁ݡෝࢵ݅ᵲ⫭ȡᇥᕾၰĞಽᇥᕾ॒ᯕđ⧊ࡽᖒĊᮥ
w۵ႊჶುᯕŁ⧁ᙹᯩ݅(႑ᄲ, 2005, 2011). Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ
༉⩶ᮡᯝၹᱢᮝಽ⊂ᱶ༉⩶ŝǍ᳑༉⩶ᮝಽǍᖒࡹᨕᯩ݅. ⊂ᱶ
༉⩶(Measurement model)ᮡbb᮹š⊂ᄡᙹa✚ᱶᰁᰍᄡᙹᨱ
ݡ⧕ᨕਜíᱢᰍࡹᨕᯩ۵aෝᖅᱶ⦽⪶ᯙᱢᯙᇥᕾ᮹ᖒĊᮥ
wŁᯩᨕᕽ, š⊂ᄡᙹॅ᮹⊂ᱶᗮᖒᯙᝁࠥၰ┡ݚࠥෝ⠪a⧁
ᙹ ᯩ݅. Ǎ᳑༉⩶(Structural model)ᮡ ᨕਅ ᰁᰍᄡᙹa ݅ෙ
ᰁᰍᄡᙹ᮹ᄡ⪵ᨱḢᱲᱢᮝಽੱ۵eᱲᱢᮝಽᩢ⨆ᮥᵝŁᯩ۵ aෝᖅᱶ⦽݅ᵲ⫭ȡᇥᕾၰĞಽᇥᕾ᮹ᖒĊᯕၹᩢࡹᨕᰁᰍᄡ ᙹॅe᮹šĥෝᖅᱶ⦽äᯕ݅. Ǎ᳑ႊᱶᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹۵⥥ಽəఉ ᨱ۵LISREL, AMOS, EQS ॒ᯕᯩᮝӹ, ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵AMOS
ෝ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ ༉⩶ᮥ ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.
Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶ᇥᕾ᮹ʑᅙᱢᯙŝᱶᮡ⊂ᱶᄡᙹෝ☖⦽ᰁᰍ
ᯙᮥၽč⦹Łᰁᰍᯙeᨱᯙŝšĥ᮹aᖅᮥᖅᱶ⦹۵äᯕ
݅. ᯝၹᱢᯙǍ᳑ႊᱶ᮹Ǎᖒᗭ۵݅ᮭTable 1ŝzᮝ໑, Fig. 1 ᮡ Ǎᖒᗭॅᮥ Ğಽࠥ⩶ᮝಽ ӹ┡ԙ äᯕ݅.
AmosᨱᕽǍ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶᮹༉ᙹෝ⇵ᱶ⦹۵ʑჶᨱ۵↽ݡ ᬑࠥ⇵ᱶჶ(maximum likelihood), ᯝၹ⪵↽ᗭᯱჶ(generalized least square), እaᵲ↽ᗭᯱჶ(unweighted least square), ࠥ
ᯱᮁ↽ᗭᯱჶ(scale-free least square) ॒ᯕᯩᮝ໑, ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ ۵↽ݡᬑࠥ⇵ᱶჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. ↽ݡᬑࠥ⇵ᱶჶᨱᯕᬊࡹ۵༊ᱢ
⧉ᙹ۵݅ᮭŝz݅. ↽ݡᬑࠥ⇵ᱶჶ᮹ᱢ⧊⧉ᙹ۵݅ᮭŝz݅.
¦¥á ÞľßâƒƐã¬
àÎÞľßäà ¬à ÞƎ âƏß (1)
ᯝၹᱢᮝಽaᰆฯᯕᯕᬊࡹ۵⇵ᱶჶᮡ↽ݡᬑࠥ⇵ᱶჶᮝಽ
ᯕ۵⇵ᱶపᯕݡȽ༉⢽ᅙᨱᕽᯝšᱢ(consistent)ᯕŁ, ᱱɝ⬉ᮉ
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Accident Records
Category Weekday Weekend
Frequency (person) Ratio (%) Frequency (person) Ratio (%)
Total 8,152 100.0 3,530 100.0
Parking on shoulder Relativeness 217 2.7 80 2.3
No relativeness 7,935 97.3 3,450 97.7
Horizontal alignment Straight 5,027 61.7 2,180 61.8
Curve 3,125 38.3 1,350 38.2
Vertical alignment Level 7,651 93.9 3,321 94.1
Slope 501 6.1 209 5.9
Accident location Tunnel 183 2.2 83 2.4
Others 7,969 97.8 3,447 97.6
Road surface Asphalt 3,583 44.0 1,535 43.5
Concrete 4,569 56.0 1,995 56.5
Weather condition Clear 4,634 56.8 1,931 54.7
Others(rain, fog, etc) 3,518 43.2 1,599 45.3
Daytime or nighttime Daytime 4,868 59.7 2,114 59.9
Nighttime 3,284 40.3 1,416 40.1
Surface condition Dry 5,905 72.4 2,520 71.4
Wet 2,247 27.6 1,010 28.6
Driver’s gender Female 824 10.1 516 14.6
Male 7,328 89.9 3,014 85.4
Driver’s age
20s than less 1,313 16.1 744 21.1
30~39 2,203 27.0 956 27.1
40~49 2,688 33.0 1,068 30.3
50~59 1,554 19.1 624 17.7
60s than more 394 4.8 138 3.9
High operating speed Normal 6,384 78.3 2,686 76.1
Speeding 1,768 21.7 844 23.9
Vehicle type small and medium 5,235 64.2 2,804 79.4
Full-size 2,917 35.8 726 20.6
Note: Vehicle type for small and medium size included cars(business, private, jeep) and full-size included freight, trailer and special cargo.
ᱢ(asymptotically efficient)ᯙäᮝಽӹ┡ӽ݅. ↽ݡᬑࠥ⇵ᱶჶ
ᱢ⧊⧉ᙹ۵⪶ශၡࠥ⧉ᙹෝᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᵝᨕḥ⢽ᅙᯕ⣡⩥⧁⪶ශ ၡࠥaaᰆ׳ᦥḡࠥಾ༉ᙹෝ⇵ᱶ⦽݅. ↽ݡᬑࠥ⇵ᱶჶᯕaᰆ
ฯᯕᔍᬊࡹ۵ᯕᮁ۵ ✚ᱶ⦽᳑Õ⦹ᨱᕽᱢ⧊⧉ᙹ᮹↽ᗭ⊹ᨱ
N-1 ᮥ Œ⦹໕ Ō
Ïᇥ⡍ෝ ⦹ʑ ভྙᯕ݅.
4. ༉⩶Ǎ⇶
4.1 ୀ߹ଭ׆ొധծंজ
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵2006֥ᇡ░2010֥ʭḡ᮹5֥࠺ᦩ᮹⦽ǎࠥಽ Ŗᔍᨱᕽš⧁⦹Łᯩ۵ĞᇡŁᗮࠥಽ, ᩢ࠺Łᗮࠥಽ, 88ฝ⦞
Łᗮࠥಽ॒ᱥǎŁᗮࠥಽᨱᕽၽᔾ⦽Ʊ☖ᔍŁᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.
⧕ݚᯱഭ۵ᔍŁၽᔾḡ, ၽᔾe, ႊ⨆, ᔍŁ₉᳦, ᬕᱥᯱ᪡⦝⧕
ᯱ᮹ᖒᄥŝӹᯕ, ࠥಽᖁ⩶, ʑᔢᔢ┽, י໕ᔢ┽, ᔍŁ}, ᔍŁᬱ ᯙ, ᔍᯱᙹ, ᵲᔢᯱᙹ, Ğᔢᯱᙹ॒݅᧲⦽ᱶᅕෝݕŁᯩ݅.
ᯕᵲᨱᕽᔢššĥa׳ᦥ݅ᵲŖᖁᖒ᮹ᬑಅaᯩ۵ᄡᙹॅᮥ
ᱽ⦹Ł, đ⊂ᯱഭॅᮥݡℕੱ۵ᱽÑ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕ్⦽ᯱഭ᮹
ᱱáᮥ☖⧕⇵⇽⧕ԙ16}ᄡᙹ(tʙᵝᱶ₉, ⠪໕ᖁ⩶, ᳦݉Ǎ႑, ᔍŁǍe, ࠥಽ⡍ᰆ, ᵝ, ʑᔢᔢ┽, ࠥಽ⢽໕ᔢ┽, ᬕᱥᯱӹᯕ, ᬕᱥᯱᖒᄥ, ŝᗮᩍᇡ, ₉᳦, ᔍᯱᙹ, ᇡᔢᯱᙹ, ᔍŁ₉పᙹ,
₉ప❭ᗱݡᙹ)᮹12,042}ᯱഭෝᔍŁ᮹ᮁ⩶ᨱᵝᵲၽᔾ⦽
ᔍŁ᪡ᵝัᨱၽᔾ⦽ᔍŁಽᇥඹ⦹ᩍ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. Table 2۵
Table 3. Definition of Model Variables
Category 1 0
Road factors
Parking on shoulder Relativeness No relativeness
Horizontal alignment Straight Curve
Vertical alignment Slope(-3%~3%) Slope(>3%)
Accident location Tunnel Others
Road surface Concrete Asphalt
Environment factors
Weather condition Clear Others(rain, fog, etc)
Daytime or nighttime Nighttime Daytime
Surface condition Dry Wet
Driver factors
Driver’s gender Male Female
Driver’s age 20s than less: 1, 30s: 2, 40s: 3, 50s: 4, 60s: 5
High operating speed Speeding Others
Vehicle type Full-size small and medium
⧕ݚᯱഭ᮹ʑᚁ☖ĥపᮥ᧞⦽äᯕ݅. ᔍŁᯱഭ᮹ʑᚁ☖ĥ
ᇥᕾđŝෝᔕ⠕ᅕ໕, ᵝัŝᵝᵲᨱၽᔾ⦹۵ᔍŁ᮹Ǎᖒእᮉᯕ
₉ᯕaᯩᮭᮥᙹᯩ݅. ᩩෝॅᨕᵝัŝᵝᵲᨱၽᔾ⦽ᔍŁ᮹
ᖒᄥ, ᩑಚ, ₉᳦ᇥඹ॒᮹Ğᬑ, əǍᖒእᮉᨱᕽ݅ෙᄡᙹ᪡
እƱ⦹ᩍ ₉ᯕa ᯩᮭᮥ ӹ┡ԙ݅. ᅙ ᩑǍᨱᕽ ᇥᕾᨱ ᔍᬊࡽ
༉⩶ᯙǍ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶ᮡᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵
ᩢ⨆ᮥእƱ⦹ʑ᭥⦽༉⩶ᮝಽᔍᬊࡹᨩ݅. Ǎ᳑ႊᱶ༉⩶ᮡ
ᄡᙹॅe᮹ᅖᰂ⦽ᯙŝšĥෝ⧕ᕾ⦹Ł, ԕᔾᱢ, ᔾᱢᄡᙹॅe ᮹šĥෝ݅۵ߑᯩᨕᰆᱱᮥaḡŁᯩ݅. ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵
ᩍ్ aḡ ᄡᙹॅᨱ ݡ⦹ᩍ ᄡᙹॅe᮹ šĥ᪡ ᄡᙹॅŝ ᔍŁ
ᝍbࠥ᪡᮹ šĥෝ ⧕ᕾ⦹۵ߑ ᰆᱱᮥ aḥ݅.
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᔍŁߑᯕ░᮹š⊂ᄡᙹॅᮥⓍíᔍŁᝍbࠥ᪡
ࠥಽᯙ, ᬕᱥᯱᯙ, ⪹Ğᯙ॒ᮝಽᇥඹ⦹Ł, ᯕෝᰁᰍᄡᙹ ಽᖅᱶ⦹ᩍǍ᳑༉⩶ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ࠥಽᯙᮡᬕᱥᯱ᮹✚ᖒᯕ ӹᵝᄡ⪹Ğᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၼḡᦫŁࠥಽ᮹Ǎ᳑ᱢᗭᨱᩢ⨆ᮥ
ၙ⊹۵ᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᕽtʙᵝᱶ₉, ⠪໕ᖁ⩶, ᳦݉Ǎ႑, ᔍŁǍe,
ࠥಽ⡍ᰆᮥ š⊂ᄡᙹಽ ᖅᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ⪹Ğ ᯙᮡ Ʊ☖ᔢ⫊ᯕӹ
⪹Ğ ॒ ࠥಽ ᱢᯙ ᄡ⪵ෝ ☖⦹ᩍ Ʊ☖ᖅᯕӹ Ʊ☖⮱ᨱ
ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᕽԁᦉ, ᵝeǍᇥ, ᔍŁၽᔾeᮥ
š⊂ᄡᙹಽᖅᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ੱ⦽ᬕᱥᯱᯙᮡᬕᱥᯱ᮹⧪┽ᨱᩢ⨆
ᮥၙ⊹۵ᯙᮝಽᬕᱥᯱ᮹ᖒᄥŝᩑಚ, ŝᗮᩍᇡ, ᬱᯙ₉᳦ᮥ
š⊂ᄡᙹಽᖅᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔍŁᝍbࠥᰁᰍᄡᙹෝӹ┡ԕ۵š⊂ᄡ ᙹಽ۵ᔍᯱᙹ, ᇡᔢᯱᙹ, ᔍŁ₉పᙹ, ₉ప❭ᗱݡᙹ॒4}ᄡᙹ
ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. 4}᮹ᰁᰍᄡᙹaᬕᨱᔍŁᝍbࠥ۵ԕᔾᄡᙹಽ,
ࠥಽᯙŝᬕᱥᯱᯙ, ⪹Ğᯙ॒3}ᄡᙹ۵ᔾᄡᙹಽ
ᖅᱶ⦹ᩍ ༉⩶ᮥ Ǎ⇶⦹ࠥಾ ⦽݅. ༉⩶ ⇵ᱶᮥ ᭥⦹ᩍ ᱢᬊࡽ
ᄡᙹॅᮡ Table 3ᨱᕽ ӹ┡ӽ݅.
4.2 ࡦ෴ଭ୨ࢫէր
Ǎ᳑ႊᱶᨱ᮹⦽ᵝᵲᵝัᔍŁᝍbࠥ༉⩶ᮡAMOS(Analysis of Moment Structure)ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍǍ⇶⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ↽᳦ᱢᮝಽ⇵ᱶ
ࡽ ༉⩶ᮡ Fig. 2᪡ Fig. 3ŝ z݅.
ʑⅩ☖ĥᇥᕾ᮹đŝ᪡ʑ᳕ᩑǍॅ᮹đŝॅᮥ☁ݡಽᅙᩑǍ ᨱᕽ۵↽᳦ᱢᮝಽࠥಽᯙŝ⪹Ğᯙ, ᬕᱥᯱᯙᮥᔾ
ᰁᰍᄡᙹಽ, ᔍŁᝍbࠥෝԕᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᖅᱶ⦹ᩍǍ᳑ႊᱶ
༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹ᩡ݅. ⇵ᱶࡽ༉ᙹॅᮡ༉ࢱ⢽ᵡ⪵⧕(standardized solution)ᯕ໑, ᯕෝ☖⧕ᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹॅᯕԕᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹᨱၙ⊹
۵ᔢݡᱢᩢ⨆ಆᮥ❭ᦦ⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ԕᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᖁᱶ⦽ᔍŁ
ᝍbࠥ۵Ʊ☖ᔍŁಽᯙ⦽⦝⧕᮹ᱶࠥෝӹ┡ԕ໑, ᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹ ۵ š⊂ḡ⢽ॅᮡ ᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.
⇵ᱶࡽĥᙹॅ᮹ᔢݡᱢᯙⓍʑෝእƱ⧕ᅙđŝ, ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵
ᵝᵲ༉⩶ᮡࠥಽᯙᯕᵝั༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵⪹Ğᯙᯕ݅ෙᯙᨱ
እ⧕ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱฯᮡᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ⇵ᱶࡽ
༉⩶ᨱ᮹⦹໕, ᵝᵲ༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵ࠥಽᯙᯕᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵
ᩢ⨆ᯕaᰆⓑäᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ĥᙹsᯕ0.487ᮝಽ᧲(+)᮹
sᮥaḡ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᯕ۵ࠥಽᯙᯕ᷾a⧁ᙹಾ, ᷪ
tʙᵝᱶ₉᪡šಉᯩÑӹ, ⠪໕ᖁ⩶ᯕḢᖁ, ࠥಽ⡍ᰆᯕ⎹Ⓧญ✙
ᯝĞᬑᨱᔍŁᝍbࠥa׳ᦥḡ۵äᮥ᮹ၙ⦽݅. ੱ⦽ࠥಽᯙ
ᵲ᳦݉Ǎ႑᪡ᔍŁǍeᮡᮁ᮹ᙹᵡ0.05ᨱᕽᮁ᮹⦹ḡᦫᮡäᮝ ಽӹ┡ӹᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹ḡᦫ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅.
⪹ĞᯙᯕᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱၙ⊹۵ᩢ⨆ᮡ0.083ಽԁᦉaาÑӹ
Õ᳑ᯝĞᬑ, ᔍŁᝍbࠥ۵׳ᦥḡ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᔍŁ
ၽᔾe᮹ Ğᬑᨱ۵ ĥᙹ᮹ ᇡ⪙a ᮭ(-)᮹ sᮥ aᲙ ᵝeᯝ
Ğᬑ ᔍŁ ᝍbࠥ۵ ԏᦥḡ۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅. ᬕᱥᯱ ᯙ᮹
Fig. 2. Structural Equation Model for Weekday
Fig. 3. Structural Equation Model for Weekend
ḡ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᕽᩑಚݡa׳Ł, ݡ⩶₉ෝᬕᱥ⦹۵
ԉᯱᯝĞᬑᔍŁᝍbࠥ۵ԏŁ, ŝᗮᬕᱥᯝĞᬑᨱ۵ᔍŁᝍbࠥ
a ׳ᮡ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
ၹ໕ᵝั༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵ࠥಽᯙᯕᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱaᰆⓑᩢ⨆ᮥ
ၙ⊹۵ᵝᵲ༉⩶ŝݍญᬕᱥᯱᯙᯕaᰆⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵
äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ੱ⦽⪹Ğᯙᯕᬕᱥᯱᯙ݅ᮭᮝಽᔍŁ
ᝍbࠥᨱ ⓑ ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၙ⊹۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᬕᱥᯱ ᯙ᮹
ĥᙹsᯕ᧲᮹sᮥӹ┡ԕᵝᵲ༉⩶ŝᱶၹݡ᮹᧲ᔢᮥᅕᯕ۵
äᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᕽᵝั༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵᳦݉Ǎ႑᪡ŝᗮᮡ
᷾a⧁ᙹಾᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᮭ(-)᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹໑, ԁᦉ, ᵝ, ᬕᱥ
ᯱ ᖒᄥၰᩑಚ, ₉᳦ᮡ᧲(+)᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅.
ੱ⦽ࠥಽᯙᵲ᳦݉Ǎ႑᪡ᔍŁ᭥⊹᮹Ğᬑᵝᵲ༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵
ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᮁ᮹⦹ḡᦫᦹᮝӹ, ᵝั༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱ
ᮁ᮹⦽ ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၙ⊹۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
ԕᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹᯙᔍŁᝍbࠥ۵4}᮹š⊂ᄡᙹᨱ᮹⧕ᖅࡹ
໑, ᔢݡᱢᯙᩢ⨆ಆᮡᵝᵲ༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵₉ప❭ᗱݡᙹ, ᔍŁ₉పᙹ, ᔍᯱᙹ, ᇡᔢᯱᙹ᮹ᙽᮝಽ, ᵝั༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵ᇡᔢᯱᙹ, ᔍᯱ
ᙹ, ᔍŁ₉పᙹ, ₉ప❭ᗱݡᙹ ᙽᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
Table 4. Estimates of 쪢G for Weekday Model
Category Estimates S.E. t-value P Standardized coefficients
Road factors 1.000 - - - 0.487
Environment factors 0.044 0.014 3.225 0.001 0.083
Driver factors -0.163 0.037 -4.407 0.001 -0.082
Table 5. Estimates of 쩊
xfor Weekday Model
Category Observed variables Estimates S.E. t-value P Standardized coefficients
Road factors
Parking on shoulder 1.000 - - - ¿ 0.466
Horizontal alignment 0.783 0.135 5.811 0.001 0.121
Vertical alignment -0.029 0.062 -0.463 0.643 -0.009
Accident location 0.012 0.038 0.307 0.759 0.006
Road surface 0.229 0.130 1.771 0.077 0.035
Environment factors
Weather condition 1.000 - - - 0.595
Daytime or nighttime -0.003 0.025 -0.126 0.900 -0.002
Surface condition 1.051 0.252 4.165 0.001 0.621
Driver factors
Driver’s gender 1.000 - - - 0.257
Driver’s age 3.096 0.209 14.786 0.001 0.218
High operating speed -0.457 0.065 -7.090 0.001 -0.086
Vehicle type 5.936 0.918 6.465 0.001 0.958
Table 6. Estimates of 쪢G for Weekend Model
Category Estimates S.E. t-value P Standardized coefficients
Road factors 1.000 - - - 0.046
Environment factors 0.244 0.067 3.618 0.001 0.115
Driver factors 0.032 0.010 3.232 0.001 0.073
Table 7. Estimates of 쩊
xfor Weekend Model
Category Observed variables Estimates S.E. t-value P Standardized coefficients
Road factors
Parking on shoulder 1.000 - - - 0.067
Horizontal alignment 16.455 7.619 2.160 0.031 0.336
Vertical alignment -4.523 2.163 -2.091 0.037 -0.190
Accident location 3.542 1.661 2.132 0.033 0.232
Road surface 13.802 6.409 2.154 0.031 0.276
Environment factors
Weather condition 1.000 - - - 0.995
Daytime or nighttime 0.033 0.017 1.958 0.050 0.033
Surface condition 1.000 0.018 54.239 0.001 0.996
Driver factors
Driver’s gender 1.000 - - - 0.291
Driver’s age 3.156 0.354 8.920 0.001 0.290
High operating speed -0.197 0.097 -2.032 0.042 -0.047
ᵝᵲ, ᵝั༉⩶ᨱ᮹⧕⇵ᱶࡽ༉ᙹॅၰ⢽ᵡ᪅₉, t-valueෝ
ᱶญ⦹໕ Tables 4~7ŝ z݅.
ᵝᵲᔍŁ༉⩶᮹ Ğᬑ, ⇵ᱶࡽLamda-x᪡Gamma sᨱ᮹⧕,
⠪໕ᖁ⩶, ࠥಽ⡍ᰆ, ࠥಽ⢽໕ᔢ┽, ᬕᱥᯱᩑಚ, ݡ⩶₉పᯝᙹಾ
Table 8. Goodness of Fit Statistics
Index Weekday Weekend Recommended level
Chi-square 2190.547 (p=0.001) 1034.612 (p=0.001) p<0.05)
GFI 0.968 0.966 0.9 and more
AGFI 0.956 0.953 0.85 and more
RMR 0.012 0.015 0.05 and less
RMSEA 0.051 0.052 0.05 and less
ᔍŁᝍbࠥ᮹᧲(+)᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹໑ŝᗮ॒ᯕᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᮭ(-) ᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᵝัᔍŁ༉⩶᮹Ğᬑ⬂݉ᖁ⩶, ᔍŁ᭥⊹, ࠥಽ⡍ᰆᔢ┽, ࠥಽ⢽໕, e, ݡ⩶₉పᯝᙹಾᔍŁᝍ bࠥ᮹᧲(+)᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹໑, ᳦݉Ǎ႑aᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᮭ(-)᮹
ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၙ⊹۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
ᅙᩑǍ༉⩶ᯕᵝᨕḥᯱഭᨱᱥၹᱢᮝಽᇡ⧊⦹۵ḡෝ❱݉
⦹ʑ᭥⦽ᱢ⧊ࠥḡᙹ۵Table 8ᨱᱽ⦹ᩡ݅. ⋕ᯕᱽŒ☖ĥపᮡ
⢽ᅙŖᇥᔑ⧪(S)ŝ⇵ᱶŖᇥᔑ⧪()᪡᮹ᇩᯝ⊹ᱶࠥෝ⠪a
⦹ʑ᭥⦽ḡ⢽ಽ, ᅙ༉⩶ᨱᕽ۵1034.612~2190.547(p=0.001) ಽӹ┡ӹࢱ⧪e᮹₉ᯕaᨧ݅۵ȡྕaᖅᮥʑb⦹íࡽ݅.
⦹ḡอ⋕ᯕᱽŒ☖ĥపᮡ⢽ᅙⓍʑᨱၝq⦹íၹ᮲⦹ᩍ⢽ᅙ᮹
ᙹaฯᮥᙹಾpsᯕԏíӹ┡ӹ۵Ğ⨆ᯕᯩᨕ, ݅ෙᩍ్aḡ
ᱢ⧊ḡᙹෝ⧉̹Łಅ⦹ᩍ❱݉⦹۵äᯕၵ௭Ḣ⦹݅. ᕽᅙ
ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ ⋕ᯕᱽŒ ☖ĥప ᯕᨱ ᱢ⧊ḡᙹ(goodness-of-fit- index, GFI), ᳑ᱶᱢ⧊ḡᙹ(adjusted goodness-of-fit-index, AGFI),
₉⠪Ɂᯱ᮹ᯕᵲɝ(root mean square residual, RMR), ɝᔍ ᪅₉⠪Ɂᯱ᮹ᯕᵲɝ(root mean square error of approximation, RMSEA)ෝ Łಅ⦹ᩍ ༉⩶᮹ ᱢ⧊ᩍᇡෝ ❱݉⦹ᩡ݅.
ᱢ⧊ḡᙹ(GFI)۵š⊂⧪ŝᰍᔾ⧪e᮹₉ᯱ⧊᮹እᮉ ᨱʑⅩ⦽ḡᙹಽᕽᯝၹᱢᮝಽ0~1ᔍᯕ᮹sᮥaḡ໑, ༉⩶ᯕ
⢽ᅙŖᇥᔑ⧪ᮥᖅ⦹۵እᮉᮥӹ┡ԕ۵ḡ⢽ᯕ݅. ᱢ⧊ḡᙹ ᮹ᅕ⠙ᱢᯙǭᰆᙹᵡᮡ0.9 ᯕᔢᯕ໑, ࢱ}᮹ᅙᩑǍ༉⩶༉ࢱ
ʑᵡ⊹ᨱᇡ⧊ࡹ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ੱ⦽ᯱᮁࠥᨱ᮹⧕ᱢ⧊ḡᙹ
ෝᙹᱶ⦽᳑ᱶᱢ⧊ḡᙹ(AGFI) ᩎǭᰆᙹᵡᯙ0.9ᯕᔢᯙäᮝಽ
ӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, S᪡᪡᮹₉ᯕෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᔑ⇽⦹۵RMRᮡ༉⩶ᨱ
᮹⦹ᩍᖅ⧁ᙹᨧ۵ᇥᔑ/Ŗᇥᔑ᮹Ⓧʑಽᕽ᯲ᮥᙹಾᳬᮡsᮥ
ӹ┡ԕ۵ߑǭᰆᙹᵡᅕ᯲݅ᮡ0.011ŝ0.014ಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ⢽ᅙⓍʑ aⓑ༉⩶᮹⋕ᯕᱽŒ☖ĥపᨱݡ⦽⦽ĥෝɚᅖ⦹ʑ᭥⦽ᱢ⧊ḡᙹ
RMSEA sࠥ bb 0.051 0.052ಽ ᱢ⧊⦹í ӹ┡ԍ݅.
5. đುၰ⨆⬥ᩑǍŝᱽ
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᵝᵲŝᵝัŁᗮࠥಽ᮹ᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᩢ⨆ᮥ
ၙ⊹۵ᯙॅᯕ₉ᯕaᯩᮭᮥᇥᕾ⦹ŁᯱᔍŁᝍbࠥෝǍ᳑༉
⩶᮹ԕᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹಽ, ࠥಽᯙၰᬕᱥᯱᯙ, ⪹Ğᯙᮥ
ᔾᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᖅᱶ⦹ᩍ༉⩶ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᰁᰍᄡᙹॅᮥᖅ
⦹ʑ᭥⦽š⊂ᄡᙹᨱ۵tʙᵝᱶ₉, ⠪໕ᖁ⩶, ᳦݉Ǎ႑, ᔍŁǍ e, ࠥಽ⡍ᰆ, ᵝ, ʑᔢᔢ┽, ࠥಽ⢽໕, ᬕᱥᯱӹᯕ, ᬕᱥᯱᖒᄥ, ŝᗮᩍᇡ, ₉᳦, ᔍᯱᙹ, ᇡᔢᯱᙹ, ᔍŁ₉పᙹ, ₉ప❭ᗱݡᙹ
॒ⅾ16}ᄡᙹa⡍⧉ࡹᨩᮝ໑, 2006֥ᇡ░2010֥ʭḡ᮹Łᗮ
ࠥಽᔍŁߑᯕ░12,042}ෝ⢽ᅙᮝಽᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. ༉⩶᮹⇵ᱶđ ŝ ᵝᵲ ᔍŁ ᝍbࠥ ༉⩶ᮡ ࠥಽ ᯙᯕ ᔍŁ ᝍbࠥᨱ aᰆ
ⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᵝัᔍŁᝍbࠥ༉⩶ᮡ
ᬕᱥᯱᯙᯕᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱaᰆⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ӹ
ᵝᵲŝ ᵝั ᔍŁ᮹ ᬱᯙ ₉ᯕෝ ӹ┡ԩ݅.
ᵝᵲᔍŁ༉⩶᮹Ğᬑ, ⇵ᱶࡽLamda-x᪡Gamma sᨱ᮹⧕,
⠪໕ᖁ⩶, ࠥಽ⡍ᰆ, ࠥಽ⢽໕ᔢ┽, ᬕᱥᯱᩑಚ, ݡ⩶₉పᯝᙹಾ
ᔍŁᝍbࠥ᮹᧲(+)᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹໑ŝᗮ॒ᯕᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᮭ(-) ᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᵝัᔍŁ༉⩶᮹Ğᬑ⬂݉ᖁ⩶, ᔍŁ᭥⊹, ࠥಽ⡍ᰆᔢ┽, ࠥಽ⢽໕, e, ݡ⩶₉పᯝᙹಾᔍŁᝍ bࠥ᮹᧲(+)᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹໑, ᳦݉Ǎ႑aᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᮭ(-)᮹
ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၙ⊹۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
Ʊ☖ᔍŁ۵ๅᬑ݅᧲⦽ᯙॅᯕᅖ⧊ᱢᮝಽ᯲ᬊ⦹ᩍၽᔾ⦹
ʑভྙᨱᩩ⊂ᮥ⦹۵ߑฯᮡᨕಅᬡᯕᯩ݅. ✚⯩ӹᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ᮹
ᇥᕾđŝ᪡zᯕᵝᵲŝᵝัᔍŁᝍbࠥᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ᵝ⦽
ᯙᮡ݅íӹ┡ӽ݅. ᵝᵲᔍŁᨱᕽ۵ࠥಽᯙᯕaᰆⓑᩢ⨆
ᯕḡอᵝัᔍŁ۵☖⧪᮹ᵝ༊ᱢᯕᩍaᯕʑ ভྙᨱᬕᱥᯱ
ᯙᯕⓑᩢ⨆ᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᵝᵲŝᵝั᮹݅ෙ☖⧪➉▕ᨱ
ෙ Ʊ☖ᔍŁ᮹ ᬱᯙᮥ ᇥᕾ⦹Ł ᯕᨱ ෙ ݡ₦ᮥ Łಅ⦹ʑ
᭥⦹ᩍᅙᩑǍᨱᕽᱢᬊ⦽ࠥಽӹᬕᱥᯱ, ⪹Ğᯙॅᮥᖙᇥ⪵⦹
Ñӹ, ᝅᱽᱶ₦ᔢฯᯕŁಅࡹḡ༜⦹Łᯩ۵ᬕᱥᯱ᮹⧪┽ᱢ
⊂໕ᮥᰁᰍᄡᙹಽᕽŁಅ⦹ᩍ༉⩶ᮥၽᱥ┉݅໕ᔍŁෝᩩ⊂
⦹Ł ə ⦝⧕ෝ ᵥᯕ۵ߑ ʑᩍ⧁ ᙹ ᯩᮥ äᯕ݅.
qᔍ᮹ɡ
ᯕםྙᮡ2011֥ࠥᱶᇡ(Ʊᮂŝ⦺ʑᚁᇡ)᮹ᰍᬱᮝಽ⦽ǎᩑ
Ǎᰍ݉᮹ ḡᬱᮥ ၼᦥ ᙹ⧪ࡽ ᩑǍᯥ(No. 2011-0028933).
References
Anowar, S., Yasmin, S. and Tay, R. (2013). “Comparison of crashes during public holidays and regular weekends.” Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 51, pp. 93-97.
