제6회 세종열린정책대화
TPP 합의와 한국 통상전략 옵션：
일한 관계를 중심으로
2015년 11월 23일 (월) 14:00 ~ 15:20
한국개발연구원(KDI) 6층 화상회의실
행사개요
발표자 약력
Yukiko Fukagawa
(深川由起子)
(와세다대학교 정치경제학부 교수)
[학 력]
∙ (학사) 1981년 와세다대학교 정치경제학부 졸업
∙ (석사) 1995년 예일대학교 대학원 국제경제학석사 졸업
∙ (박사) 1998년 와세다대학교 대학원 상학연구과 수료 [주요 경력]
∙ 1981년 일본무역진흥회(JETRO)
∙ 1990년 장은종합연구소(LTCBR) 국제조사부 주임연구원
∙ 1998년 아오야마 가쿠인 대학교 경제학부 조교수
∙ 2003년 도쿄대학교 대학원 종합문화연구과 교수
∙ 2006년 와세다대학교 정치경제학술원 정치경제학부 교수
∙ 현 재 연세대학교 국제학대학원 방문교수
행사명 : 제6회 세종열린정책대화 주 최 : 경제･인문사회연구회
일 시 : 2015. 11. 23. (월) 14:00 ~ 15:20 (80분) 장 소 : 한국개발연구원(KDI) 6층 화상회의실
주 제 : TPP 합의와 한국 통상전략 옵션:
일한 관계를 중심으로
발 표 : Yukiko Fukagawa (深川由起子) 와세다대학교 정치경제학부 교수 프로그램
시 간 주요내용 발 표 자
14:00 ~ 14:05 인 사 말 안 세 영 경제･인문사회연구회 이사장
14:05 ~ 14:45 발 표 Yukiko Fukagawa (深川由起子) 와세다대학교 정치경제학부 교수 14:45 ~ 15:20 토 론
(질의응답, 정책이슈 공유)
TPP Agreement and the Traade P
Policy Options for Korea
--Focusing on Japan-Korea Relations TPP ଟࡿࠧ ଛ˯ ەࢴԕ ࠣ܇ ؟ ࢇଛ ˔ˀծ
ࣵݧࡰԸ
Yukiko Fukagawa
Outline
y TPP as the New Rules
y Impact of TPP on East Asia
y Trade policy options for Korea
y Economic integration as the growth strategies: Japan’s case
y Korea’s new focus
y Temporary conclusion
Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) as the New Rules
y Not just a Mega FTA covering 40% of Global GDP
y Real goal: Common rule making in Asia- Pacific region, Reducing business risks
y High standard of liberalization in goods/
services/ investment
y New rules on state enterprises, Investor- State Dispute Settlements (ISDs),
Transparency principles on SPS and other
trade procedures
High standard in free trade
Japan TPP11
ရ┠ ㈠᫆㢠 ရ┠ ㈠᫆㢠
Total tariff elimination 95.0 95.0 99.9㸦Canada/Mexico/Peru㸧99.9㸦Mexico㸧
~100.0㸦Others㸧 ~100.0㸦Others㸧 Immediate tariff elimination
In Industrial goods 95.3 99.1 86.9 76.6 Final tariff elimination
In industrial goods 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.9
Japan USA Australia Mexico Vietnam Immediate tariff elimination
In Agricultural goods 51.3 55.5 99.5 74.1 42.6
2-11 years 27.5 37.8 0.5 17.2 52.3
After 12years 2.2 5.5 0.0 5.1 4.5
Exclusion 19.0 1.2 0.0 3.6 0.6
J-US(TPP) Korus J-Canada(TPP) C-Korea ရ┠ ㍺ฟ㢠 ရ┠ ㍺ฟ㢠 ရ┠ ㍺ฟ㢠 ရ┠ ㈠᫆㢠 Immediate tariff elimination
87.4 81.4 83.0 77.5 95.4 87.5 72.2 59.1
China-Korea FTA
㻷㼛㼞㼑㼍 㻯㼔㼕㼚㼍
㼀㼍㼞㼕㼒㼒㻌㼘㼕㼚㼑㼟 㼀㼞㼍㼐㼑㻌㼢㼛㼘㼡㼙㼑 㼀㼍㼞㼕㼒㼒㻌㼘㼕㼚㼑㼟 㼀㼞㼍㼐㼑㻌㼢㼛㼘㼡㼙㼑
㻺㼛㼞㼙㼍㼘㻌㼠㼞㼍㼏㼗 㻵㼙㼙㼑㼐㼕㼍㼠㼑㻌㼑㼘㼕㼙㼕㼚㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚 㻡㻜 㻡㻞 㻞㻜 㻠㻠
㻝㻙㻡㼥㼑㼍㼞㼟 㻝㻞 㻠 㻞㻝 㻠
㻢㻙㻝㻜㼥㼑㼍㼞㼟 㻝㻤 㻞㻝 㻟㻝 㻝㻥
㻌㻌㼀㼛㼠㼍㼘 㻣㻥 㻣㻣 㻣㻝 㻢㻢
㻿㼑㼚㼟㼕㼠㼕㼢㼑 㼃㼕㼠㼔㼕㼚㻌㻝㻡㼥㼑㼍㼞㼟㻛㻞㻜㼥㼑㼍㼞㼟 㻝㻟 㻝㻠 㻝㻥 㻝㻥
㻴㼕㼓㼔㼘㼥㻌㻿㼑㼚㼟㼕㼠㼕㼢㼑 㻱㼤㼏㼘㼡㼟㼕㼛㼚㻘㻌㼀㻾㻽 㻤 㻥 㻥 㻝㻡
Portfolio of Japan’s subsidiaries in Machinery manufacturing (numbers
(left) and sales (right) by %)
The regional impact depends on the domino effects
y Vietnam as the hidden jewel
y Thailand: Biggest industrial
accumulation outside TPP in ASEAN, Location competition with Malaysia and Vietnam
y Philippines: Geopolitics, FDI competition with Vietnam
y Korea: Accumulation rules for Vietnam
y Taiwan: Geopolitics, Internal politics,
Competition with Korea
The impacts on Japan-China- Korea FTAs
y Korea: Joining TPP means Virtual Japan- Korea FTA (Korea-Mexico FTA) at very
high standard: Immediate tariff elimination of 86.9%
y Korus in revision: US’s responses
y Bilateral pacts: Large gap between China- Korea and TPP based Japan-Korea FTA
y J-K: More difficult in agricultural
sector? (Exemption rice/wheat/beef&pork/dairy goods/ sugars) but Vegetables/ Fruits, sea weeds…)
y No perspectives on Japan-China FTA but
at least higher than Korea-China (WTO
24 th rules)
The impacts on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
y Far lower standards in RCEP:
Only Goods/ Services/ Investment (TPP: 22 sectors), Exception for
China-India
y China may push back with
Liberalization + Cooperation logic:
AIIB
y Common tariffs: China+Korea vs.
Japan+ASEAN may change?
India?
Possible trade policy options for Korea
1) Making the first participant after TPP ratification (High-standard JK FTA)
→ N New growth model/ reform agenda
End of old model (Hardware, Cost competition, Public support, Exchange intervention, ISDS….)
2) No TPP, but JK FTA under RCEP (Low quality JK FTA)
→ Common tariff+α?
3) Upgrading CK FTA under JCK (WTO consistency) → Strategic gains?
4) 1)~3) + WTO pluri-lateral: ITA, GATS+….
Integration as the Growth Strategies for Japan
y Securing export environment under stagnant WTO negotiation
y Rule>Tariff by Mega FTA hub
y Securing Global Value Chains through common rules:
(ex. Accumulation rules )
y Innovate location advantage through
outside pressures
Japan as the hub of Mega FTAs
Export remains sluggish
Ordinary profits
(100 Million Yen, Except financial sector)
Abenomics 2.0: Achieving growth!
G
Growth by:
(1) Virtuous Circulations (2) Deregulation
(3) Integration
→ Focusing on real/ flow economy (shifting from financial/ assets
side)
Arrow 3: Growth Policy
y Mid to Long-term Japan needs: Consumption -Investment-Wage recovery cycle,
Productivity gains, Market-driven growth
y The Direction: “Japan Revitalization Strategy” (Revised since Jun. 2013)
((1) Private sector dynamics (Structural reform)
(2) Mobilizing all human capital (Labor reform)
(3) Create new frontiers
(4) Trickle down growth: Local economies
(5) Global outreach (Economic integration)
(1)Structural reform
Promoting business restructuring and reorganization
Stimulating investment (Corporate tax cut, Energy reform, Corporate governance structure…)
Reforming venture capital and venture business Promoting inbound/outbound FDI
Globalizing SMEs
(2) Mobilizing human resources
Enhancing labor mobility
Female labor empowerment/ Senior labor participation Diversifying working styles
Education reform
Taking in foreign talents and skilled laborers
(3) Growth frontier: Gov.- Business partnership
National health: Advanced treatment
(Regenerative medicine)/ Healthcare business cluster/ Big data based care/ Outbound-Inbound care services/
Clinic innovation networks …..
Clean energy: Batteries/ Home energy system/
Hydrogen society/ Methane hydrate development
(3) Growth frontier: Gov.-
Business partnership (Continued)
Advanced infrastructure system: Sensor/
Robot monitoring/ ITS system: ART on Tokyo Olympic
Transportation for the seniors
Robot society: Personal mobility, Communication, Cleaning,
Security service (labor shortage)
(3) Growth frontier: Promoting investment and ventures
Reforms in national universities(Local contribut- Ion, Specialization, Global competition)
Research universities with venture platforms
Flexible appointment among research organizations
Silicon valley-Japan partnership
(4) Local Abenomics
Agriculture: Land reform/ Corporate investment/ Cost reduction (ex. 40% in rice) / Food business ( 10 trillion yen in 2020)/ Export promotion (1 trillion yen)
Tourism: DMO(Destination Management Organization)/
Barrier-free infrastucture/ Big data/ Cultural exchange….
Health care: Local care information system/ Data analysis/
Business cluster promotion/ Preventive care…
(5) Global outreach
Pluri-lateral and Comprehensive agreements for
Global supply chains: TPP, RCEP, CJK (≠ Bilateral FTA) Ѝ FDI, Roo coverage, Competition policies, IPR, MRA
Participation in rule setting in FDI (ISDs), Standard, IPR, Movement of persons
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