1 Report for

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Daily Report for Monday, November 13, 2017

1 Report for

Monday,

November 13, 2017 Aban 22, 1396

* Highlights. Page 2

* News Briefs. Page 3

* Riyadh’s changing tactics. Page 3

* No war coming. Page 3

* War should be avoided. Page 4

* Iran should propel ties with East and West in parallel. Page 5

* Korean news corner. Page 9

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2 Highlights

 In an interview with Fararu, international affairs expert Ali Khorram urges Iran not to put all its eggs in Russia’s basket. (See Page 5)

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3 Briefs

* Farsi-language Iranian Students’

News Agency (ISNA) reports that Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bahram Ghassemi told reporters on Monday morning that foreign ministers of France (Jean-Yves Le Drian) and UK (Boris Johnson) will visit Tehran before the end of 2017.

He went on to say that French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Iran after Jean-Yves Le Drian’s visit to Tehran. He did not specify the exact date.

* Farsi-language state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that Director for Communications at Presidential Office Parviz Ismaeil says that President Rouhani will visit the quake-hit areas on Iran-Iraq border on Tuesday.

* Farsi-language state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that EU’s Federica Mogherini has offered her sympathies of the earthquake victims in Iran-Iraq border.

She said that EU is ready to assist in the rescue operations.

News Agency (ISNA) reports that European Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Christos Stylianides has posted on his twitter offering his sympathies to the earthquake on Iran-Iraq border. He also wrote that EU to offer assistance.

News Agency (ISNA) reports that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has on Monday has condoled the loss of lives in the devastating earthquake that rocked the northern border region between Iran and Iraq. He is currently in Philippines.

Riyadh’s changing tactics

Farsi-language state-owned newspaper Iran prints a commentary by Middle Eastern analyst Ghassem Mojebali about what he called the “suspicious”

resignation by former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri. The Iranians believe that Saudi Arabia has arrested or detained Hariri in Saudi Arabia and forced him to resign. This is not the first time Salman [bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is King of Saudi Arabia] and his son [Mohammad bin Salman, crown prince] have used this method. More than two and a half years ago, they tried to link their internal developments with regional developments by creating Yemen crisis. Then they created a new challenge with Qatar.

He goes on to write that as events developed in the region, Riyadh initially tried to pull Iran into the Lebanese crisis. The plan was foiled through correct response and management by Iran and its regional allies.

Now Saudi Arabia wishes to escape from its problems by inciting chaos inside Lebanon.

The analyst predicts: The Saudi officials have two choices to solve the challenges it faces today. It can agree that Saad Hariri leaves Riyadh and goes back to Beirut, thus allowing the Lebanese crisis is somehow delinked from the domestic developments in Saudi Arabia. The other choice or option would to create another crisis in the region in order to escape the crisis in Lebanon, diverting public attention away from the present crisis to another new crisis.

No war coming

Farsi-language hardline conservative newspaper Javan prints a commentary by an analyst Yadollah Javani about the Saudi Arabia and Hariri situation. The analyst writes:

When the Saudi regime forced Lebanese Prime Minister

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Saad Hariri to resign on the Saudi Arabian soil through its childish plots, some analysts predicted a coming war based on the content of Hariri’s resignation and the Saudi rulers’ positions about the affair.

The Saudi’s tone and statements, as well as the recall of Saudis, Emirates and Jordanians from Lebanon by their respective governments, reinforced this speculation.

The speculation was further strengthened when Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah said that he has information that the Saudis have asked the Israelis to attack Lebanon. Earlier, there was a discussion about the start of a war with the collapse of JCPOA. In these days, some analysts have speculation about the start of a war following the West’s focus on Iran’s missile issue and imposition of sanctions and triggering wild speculations and worries. These analysts put forward that the war can be avoided if Iran agrees to another round of nuclear negotiations.

This hardline conservative newspaper close to IRGC presents three scenarios by asking: Will the region soon see another war? Will Saudi Arabia attack Lebanon or Iran in the future? Will the Zionist regime attack Lebanon independently or in conjunction with Al Saud? Will the Americans and the government of Trump attack the Islamic Republic of Iran if Iran is seen as likely to withdraw from JCPOA or refuse any kind of missile talks?

However, the analyst believes that there will be no war in the future within the aforesaid contexts.

War should be avoided

Farsi-language reformist newspaper Shargh prints a commentary by analyst Hoshang Mahroyan about the speculation of a coming war. The analyst writes: The Republicans and President Trump are representatives of the American arms manufacturing companies. They want this industry to grow. And they need war for this industry to grow. Initially, weapons are manufactured for war, then the war itself is started to sell the weapons.

Therefore, President Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia was carried out with the objecting of creating turmoil in the Middle East. The other point is that the Russians and Americans benefit from a war in the Middle East in order to raise oil prices.

The rise in oil prices is beneficial to them while being detrimental to China and India.

To prevent chaos and disturbance in the area, Iran must adopt a very harsh policy to prevent war. For example, we should not let things grow out of control, such as those attributing Iran to the Yemeni missile on Saudi Arabia. Because the igniting the war between Iran and Saudi Arabia would be huge problem for Iran and would also create chaos in the Middle East and in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia is quite different from the popularly-held perceptions about it. They have a lot of money and receive high-level education in Europe and America.

Therefore, issues such as women not being allowed to drive is pushed under the rug.

Now that President Trump has sold them a lot of weapons, we should be careful not become the tools in the hands of the American arm manufacturing factories.

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5 Iran should propel ties with East and West in parallel

It seems that Donald Trump’s presidency in the US and his stance against Iran has led the country to consider expansion of its ties with Russia.

Pointing out improvements in the ties under Mohammad Khatami’s presidency, Khorram noted that even during Hashemi Rafsanjani’s presidency, incidents such as the Mykonos had eventually tensed the ties between Iran and Europe.

“One aspect of the nuclear deal was that Iran and Europe chose to negotiate the nuclear issue but the international community expected the deal, as Americans do, to enable Iran to reconsider its ties with the world and the West.

The EU wanted to return to Iran ties under Khatami, in a level Iran would be willing to negotiate shared concerns.

For the same reason, Trump is a negative factor for Iran, making it difficult for the country to expand its ties with the West,” Khorram reiterated.

There must be a balance, meaning Iran should expand its ties with France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Spain, and Switzerland as much, so that it could make up in case ties with the East become interrupted.” Khorram believes Iran’s ties with Russia should not be viewed as unidirectional inside the US as well, because Iran can provoke the US only if it improves ties with Europe.

Acknowledging expansion of ties and constructive cooperation with every country as a principle, Khorram said Iran should not put all its eggs in Russia’s basket.

In response to Fararu’s question on whether strategic ties with Russia is in the interest of Iran, Khorram said: “Even if Iran seeks strategic ties with Russia and China, both countries have openly stated they are not going to establish strategic ties with Iran or any other country like Iran.

Fararu news website: Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iran for the third time. It seems that Donald Trump’s presidency in the US and his stance against Iran has led the country to consider expansion of its ties with Russia. Before

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these developments, many observers believed the nuclear agreement would be a new chapter for cooperation between Iran and European countries. A question that comes to mind is whether Russia is an alternative to Europe.

International relations expert Ali Khorram has discussed the question in an interview with moderate Iranian website Fararu. “The nuclear accord was a kind a reconciliation between Iran and the global community in general and the West in particular. In the years after the Revolution, cold and hostile relations dominated between Iran and the West, often called the war of embassies,” he said.

Pointing out improvements in the ties under Mohammad Khatami’s presidency, Khorram noted that even during Hashemi Rafsanjani’s presidency, incidents such as the Mykonos had eventually tensed the ties between Iran and Europe. “Under President Khatami, Iran-Europe relations became warmer, with trade surging to

$35b,” the expert reiterated. However, under President Ahmadinejad, the ties became dark again, he added.

Trump’s mistakes push Iran to Russia

“One aspect of the nuclear deal was that Iran and Europe chose to negotiate the nuclear issue but the international community expected the deal, as Americans do, to enable Iran to reconsider its ties with the world and the West. That is why the EU, previously working with the US to impose sanctions on Iran, decided to lift the sanctions voluntarily. The EU wanted to return to Iran ties under Khatami, in a level Iran would be willing to negotiate shared concerns. That explains why France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Austria, and others could not wait to see the deal”.

Khorram went on to say the Obama administration also wanted to put Iran off table and end the hostility even if there would be no friendly relations.

Khorram said he believed Iran was never willing to improve ties with the West. “On the other hand, Trump’s presidency became an incentive for Iran to prevent expansion of ties with the West. In fact, Trump has pushed Iran toward the Orient by his own mistakes. This of course does not mean that Iran-Orient ties should not be expanded.

Iran has common interests with oriental countries such as Russia and China, significant in their own right. However, if Tehran is going to look only eastward, its

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foreign policy will definitely lapse and collapse,” Khorram said according to quotes published by Fararu.

Positive balance needed for improved ties

Khorram then touched a revolutionary slogan, which discourages dependence on the West and the East, saying it means a negative equilibrium in dependence on either the West or the East. He then said Iran should seek positive balance to improve ties.

“Countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or India look peculiarly up to the West. If they turn slightly toward oriental countries, it is going to be welcome. If a country is unidirectionally inclined toward the West, it will be ignored by oriental states, and vice versa. Therefore, the precondition for Iran’s stable foreign policy is to improve our eastern and western ties in parallel. For the same reason, Trump is a negative factor for Iran, making it difficult for the country to expand its ties with the West,”

Khorram reiterated.

“The nuclear agreement is a very good means for Iran to improve ties with the Western countries. There is no obstacle in becoming closer to Russia and China. The Chinese have already saturated Iran’s automobile market while Russians have pulled Iran closer in security and military matter. However, Iran should avoid being presented in the international community as a country that looks solely eastward.

There must be a balance, meaning Iran should expand its ties with France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Spain, and Switzerland as much, so that it could make up in case ties with the East become interrupted.”

Khorram believes Iran’s ties with Russia should not be viewed as unidirectional inside the US as well, because Iran can provoke the US only if it improves ties with Europe.

“Russia will respect Iran in return when it sees the other side has every opportunity to expand ties with Europe. For instance, the delivery of S300 missile defense systems from Russia took 10 years for Iran. However, when Turkey order the same systems, it received S400 systems, more sophisticated missiles, in the span of a few months only because Russia know Turkey has a good status in the West.”

Don’t put all your eggs into Russia’s basket

Acknowledging expansion of ties and constructive cooperation with every country as a principle, Khorram said Iran should not put all its eggs in Russia’s basket.

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According to the expert, this will lead to a situation where France, the UK, and Germany have no regard for Iran if issues like sanctions turn up.

Ali Khorram then recalls that during Khatami’s presidential term, there were periodic negotiations between Tehran and Brussels, saying the sides exchanged views about political, economic, and military ties, where Iran used opportunities in Europe. “China and Russia do not provide the same opportunities for Iran. In terms of banking relations or international issues, Europeans are more powerful than Russia and China.

Iran should not give its market univocally to the Chinese. Tehran should engage in ties with Europeans, with their more sophisticated capabilities, so that China stops exporting its expensive junk to Iran. This is also true about Russia and India.

Ties with East should not be strategic

In response to Fararu’s question on whether strategic ties with Russia is in the interest of Iran, Khorram said:

“Even if Iran seeks strategic ties with Russia and China, both countries have openly stated they are not going to establish strategic ties with Iran or any other country like Iran. They kept denying this when it was repeatedly brought up under the Ahmadinejad administration. They are still denying strategic relations today, but China’s interests require that it dominate Iran’s market. Russia’s interests require cooperation with Iran in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In fact, the use of the term strategic ties has nothing to do with our current relations with the two countries.”

In spite of Iran-Russia military cooperation in Syria, Khorram added, the two will immediately split ways when the Syrian crisis is resolved. “Or if for example Iran closes its doors to China, they will go try to recruit other allies. Therefore, Iran should propel its ties with the East and West at the same time,” he concluded.

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9 Korean news corner

 Farsi-language Iranian Students’

News Agency (ISNA) reports that President Trump meets Japanese and Australian prime ministers to discuss about North Korea. He met with Japan’s Shinzo Abe and Australia’s Malcolm Turnbull on Monday. They discussed the Korean peninsula

situation and also relations between America and Japan and Australia. Turnbull told reporters that North Korea must be stopped. Abe said that major changes must be made to ensure peace and stability in the region.

 Farsi-language state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that Japanese fishermen will be insured against damages to them by North Korea. Japanese newspaper Japan Today reports that the Japanese fishermen are very concerned about a possible military conflict in the region.

North Korea has fired two missiles over Japan in current year. After flying over Japanese airspace, the missiles landed in Pacific Ocean. In 2016, only 230 fishing ships were insured. This year, 1,600 Japanese fishing boats have been insured. Apparently, two missiles that North Korea fired in July and September has led the Japanese fishermen to seek insurance more than other sectors.