목 차
제1장 서론 ···········································································································3
제1절 문제제기:왜 지금 미래서울을 연구해야 하는가? ·······································3
제2절 연구범위 및 주요 연구내용 ······································································5
1. 연구범위 ································································································5
2. 주요 연구내용 ························································································5
3. 연구의 틀 ······························································································6
제2장 미래연구 방법론 ···························································································9
제1절 미래연구의 발전 ·····················································································9
1. 미래연구의 대중화 ··················································································9
2. 미래연구 예측의 다양화 ·········································································10
제2절 미래연구 방법론 ····················································································15
1. 미래연구의 기초 ···················································································15
2. 미래연구 활동 ·······················································································17
3. 미래연구 방법과 도구 ············································································19
제3장 기존 미래연구 리뷰 및 미래서울 연구의 틀 ····················································25
제1절 도시 미래 연구 리뷰 ··············································································25
1. 도쿄 2030년 예측연구 ···········································································25
2. 맥킨지의 도쿄 미래 보고서:A 20-year road map for the future ·············31
3. 미국 미래연구소(Institute for the Future) ··············································38
제2절 한국사회 미래연구 리뷰 ·········································································45
1. 한국사회의 질 연구 ···············································································45
2. 중앙일보의 10년 후 세상 프로젝트 ························································61
3. KDI의 미래비전 2040:미래 사회경제구조 변화와 국가발전전략 ··············74
4. 한국정보화진흥원의 한국사회 15대 메가트렌드 ·······································76
5. 정보통신정책연구원의 미래한국 메가트렌드 연구 ···································78
제3절 사회의 질(Social Quality)관점에서 미래서울의 지향 ································82
1. 기존 미래연구의 주요 이슈들 ································································82
2. 2030 미래서울의 지향 ··········································································86
제4장 미래서울을 둘러싼 사회구조적 변화요소들:메가트렌드 분석 ····························91
제1절 도시인구구조의 재구성 ··········································································91
1. 경제활동 인구의 축소와 인구고령화 ·······················································91
2. 가구규모의 축소:1인가구의 증가 ··························································95
3. 새로운 세대의 부상과 다인종화 ····························································100
제2절 도시화의 심화와 메가시티화 ·································································109
1. 도시화의 심화 ·····················································································109
2. 도시의 메가시티화와 도시경쟁력 ··························································111
제3절 기후변화와 도시의 안전 ·······································································123
1. 전 지구적 기후환경 변화 ······································································123
2. 위험과 안전, 그리고 도시의 지속가능성 ················································127
제5장 2030년 미래서울의 발전지향:사회의 질적 제고를 위하여 ·······························133
제1절 사회의 질 관점에서의 서울시정 변화 분석 ·············································133
1. 사회의 질 패러다임의 배경 ···································································133
2. 서울시정 변화경향 분석:시장 취임사 담론 분석 ···································134
제2절 미래서울 2030, 사회의 질 지표 구성 ·····················································147
1. 기존 사회의 질 지표에 대한 검토 ··························································147
2. 미래서울 2030, 사회의 질 지표 ·····························································148
제6장 사회의 질이 높은 미래서울 구축을 위한 참여적 방법론 ··································153
제1절 시민의 참여적 미래서울 만들기:시민원탁토론회 ··································153
1. 조사개요 ····························································································153
2. 시민원탁토론회 구성 및 조사 방법 ························································155
3. 조사결과 ····························································································159
제2절 전문가 대상 조사:2030년 미래서울의 사회의 질 예측 ···························167
1. 조사개요 ····························································································167
2. 조사방법 ····························································································168
3. 조사결과 ····························································································170
제7장 2030년 미래서울 SQ 시나리오 ····································································177
제1절 2030 미래서울에서 출현할 새로운 유형 집단 ········································177
제2절 새로운 유형집단의 특징들 ···································································178
1. Social Tribe(사회부족집단) ·································································179
2. Nomadigle ·························································································180
3. ME Gray Senior ·················································································181
4. Passive Silver ·····················································································181
참고문헌 ···········································································································185
부 록 ···············································································································191
영문요약 ···········································································································233