Estimating Road Design Hourly Volume via Inflection Point Identification

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Received March 5, 2013/ revised May 8, 2013/ accepted July 29, 2013

Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0)

ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹ͸ͷʹȀǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͸ǤʹͶʹ͹ ǤǤǤ

≾ኟⷎ#㚎⚇ⴂ#㝳㬚#ᦂḚ⛢ኂ⢚ᇂኂ⟖#♮ⷓ

ੲনతȵౖ׆சȵ׌ऀ଀

Ahn, Seongchae, Choi, Keechoo, Kim, Boowon

Estimating Road Design Hourly Volume via Inflection Point Identification

ABSTRACT

Design hourly volume and the K-factor, first proposed by FHWA in the 1950s, is based on the 30th hourly traffic volume during a year (out of 8,760 hours). It was used when surveying the traffic volume was laborious in the past and is still being used now although it leaves some to be desired for practical applications. More reasonable K-factor for better design, based on theoretical evidence, is needed. This paper proposes the knee searching method based on simple linear regression to find out the inflection point of the volume ranking curve that describe the annual 8,760 hourly traffic volumes. The method was applied to the Chungcheong province's national highway, and the results were compared to the existing guidelines’ values of K-factors. Identified design hourly traffic volumes ranked between 43rd to 694th, which is much lower than the 30th volume, meaning that some overdesign examples are inevitable if the conventional 30

^th

volume is used.

Key words : Design hourly volume, K-factor, Hourly volume ranking curve, Knee (inflection point) search, Linear regression

Ⅹಾ

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ۵1950֥ݡFHWAᨱᕽ↽Ⅹಽᱽᦩ⦹ᩡ޹}ֱᮝಽ1֥(8,760᜽e) ᵲᔢ᭥30ჩṙᙽ᭥᮹᜽eƱ☖పᮥʑၹᮝಽ⦽݅. ŝ Ñ, ༉ु᜽eݡ᮹Ʊ☖ప᳑ᔍa⯹ॅᨩ޹᜽ʑᨱᔍᬊࡹᨩ޹ႊ᜾ᮝಽ݅ᗭ᮹ྙᱽᱱᨱࠥᇩǍ⦹Ł⩥ᰍʭḡᔍᬊࡹŁᯩ݅. ⧊ญᱢᯙᖅĥෝ

᭥⧕ᕽ۵ᯕುᱢɝÑᨱၵ┶ᮥࢵᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹࠥ⇽ᯕ⦥᫵⦹݅. ᅙᩑǍ۵⩥ᰍʭḡŁᙹࡹŁᯩ۵30ჩṙᙽ᭥aŝᩑ᪔ᮡäᯙaᨱᵲᱱ

ᮥࢱŁᯩᮝ໑, ᯕෝ⧕đ⦹ʑ᭥⧕8,760 ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥łᖁᨱᕽᄡłᱱᮥ┱ᔪ⧁ᙹᯩ۵ʑჶᮥᱽᦩ⦹ᩡ݅. əญŁ∊ℎǭᯝၹǎࠥෝݡ ᔢᮝಽᱽᦩႊჶುᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᇥᕾݡᔢḡᱱ᮹ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ʑ᳕ḡ⋉᮹ԕᬊŝእƱ⦹ᩡ݅. ᖅĥ᜽eᙽ᭥۵43694ᙽ᭥

ಽᯝၹᱢᮝಽᔍᬊࡹ۵30ᙽ᭥ᅕ݅༉ࢱ⦹᭥ᙽ᭥ᨱᕽၽᔾࡹŁᯩᨩ޹ၵ, 30ᙽ᭥Ʊ☖పᮥᔍᬊ⧁Ğᬑ᧞e᮹ŝ݅ᖅĥaᯕ൉ᨕḩᙹᯩ

ᮭᯕ⪶ᯙࡹᨩ݅.

áᔪᨕ ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ, ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥, ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥łᖁ, ᄡłᱱ┱ᔪʑჶ, ݉ᙽᖁ⩶⫭ȡ

1. ᕽು

ᖅĥ᜽e᮹}ֱᮡ1950֥ݡၙǎ᮹ᩑႊࠥಽšญℎ(FHWA)ᨱᕽ↽Ⅹಽᱽᦩ⦹ᩡ޹1֥ᵲ30ჩṙᙽ᭥᮹᜽eƱ☖పᮥʑၹᮝಽ

⦹Łᯩ݅. ᩑᵲ8,760᜽eᨱݡ⦽ԕฝ₉ᙽ᮹ᙽ᭥ࠥłᖁᮥᔍᬊ⦹໑, łᖁ᮹ʑᬙʑaɪᄡ⦹۵(ੱ۵᪥อ⧕ḡ۵) ᙽ᭥ෝĞ⨹ᱢᮝಽ

İࣀėॡ

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30 ჩṙᙽ᭥ಽᅕŁ, ᯕෝᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᖅᱶ᮹ᵡÑಽᔝᦹ݅.

ŝÑ, ༉ु᜽eݡ᮹Ʊ☖ప᳑ᔍa⯹ॅᨩ޹᜽ʑᨱᔍᬊࡹᨩ޹

ႊ᜾ᯕ໑ ⩥ᰍʭḡ ᔍᬊࡹŁ ᯩ݅.

ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮡᖅĥ༊⢽֥ࠥ᮹℉ࢱ᜽eᩩᔢƱ☖పᮥ᮹ၙ

⦹໑, ࠥಽʑ⦹Ǎ᳑ᖅĥ᮹ʑᵡᯕࡹ۵Ʊ☖పᮝಽᔍᬊࡹŁᯩ݅.

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ(K factor)۵ĥ⫮༊⢽֥ࠥ᮹ᩑ⠪ɁᯝƱ☖ప(AADT, Annual Average Daily Traffic) ᨱݡ⦽ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖ప(DHV, Design Hourly Volume)᮹እᮉ(DDHV/AADT)ಽᱶ᮹ࡽ݅(Õ ᖅƱ☖ᇡ, 2000). ᰆ௹ࠥಽ᮹₉ಽᙹᔑᱶ᜽ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹaⓍ໕, ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᯕ⍅ḡíࡹအಽ ᯲ᮡĞᬑᅕ݅ᔢݡᱢᮝಽ޵

ฯᮡ₉ಽᙹෝ⦥᫵ಽ⦹íࡽ݅. ᯕ⃹ౝᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᱢᱶʑᵡ ᅕ݅׳íᔑᱶ⧁Ğᬑᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᯕ⍅ᲙእĞᱽᱢᯙࠥಽÕ ᖅᯕၽᔾ⧁ᙹᯩᮝ໑, թྕԏíᔑᱶ⧁Ğᬑฯᮡ᜽eݡᨱᕽ

ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᅕ݅ฯᮡƱ☖ప᮹ ☖⧪ᮝಽᰇᮡƱ☖⪝ᰂᮥ

ၽᔾ᜽┍ ᙹ ᯩ݅.

₉ಽᙹ᪡zᯕࠥಽ᜽ᖅ᮹Ƚ༉ᔑᱶŝᱶᨱᯩᨕᕽᖅĥ᜽eĥ ᙹ۵ ᵲ᫵⦽ ᇡᇥᮥ ݕݚ⦹Ł ᯩ݅. əౝᨱࠥ ᇩǍ⦹Ł ʑ᳕᮹

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹॅᮡᝅᱽə⇵ᱶŝᱶᯕᱶᖒᱢᯕŁ᮹ၙaᇩ⪶ᝅ

⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ᯝťᱢᯙᱢᬊᮝಽḡᩎᯕӹיᖁ᮹✚ᖒᮡŁಅࡹḡ

ᦫᦹ݅. ŝÑ᪡۵ ݍญ ᯱഭ(Ʊ☖ప ॒)᮹ Ǎाᯕ ᬊᯕ⦽ ḡɩ, ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ᪡šಉ⦹ᩍᩍ్ᩑǍaḥ⧪ࡹᨕ᪅Łᯩḡอ⩥ᝅ ᱢᯙ ၹᩢᮡ ၙၙ⦽ ᝅᱶᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍ۵⩥ᰍʭḡŁᙹࡹŁᯩ۵30ჩṙᙽ᭥aŝᩑ᪔ᮡ

äᯙaᨱݡ⦽᮹ྙᨱᕽ᜽᯲⦹໑, ᯕುᱢɝÑᨱၵ┶ᮥࢵᖅĥ᜽

eĥᙹࠥ⇽ᮥ☖⧕⧊ญᱢᯙᖅĥaa܆⦹ࠥಾ8,760᜽eᙽ᭥ł ᖁᨱᕽ݉ᙽᖁ⩶⫭ȡ(Simple Linear Regression)ෝ⪽ᬊ⦽ᄡł ᱱ(knee) ┱ᔪʑჶᮥᱽᦩ⦹ᩡ݅. əญŁ∊ℎǭᯝၹǎࠥෝݡᔢ ᮝಽᅙᩑǍᨱᕽᱽᦩ⦽ႊჶುᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᇥᕾݡᔢḡᱱ᮹ᖅĥ

᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ʑ᳕ḡ⋉ᨱᕽᱽ᜽ࡽԕᬊŝእƱ⦹ᩡ

݅. Fig. 1ŝ zᯕ ∊ℎǭ ᯝၹǎࠥ 49} ᔢ᜽᳑ᔍḡᱱᨱ ݡ⦽

2009 ֥ Ʊ☖ప ᯱഭෝ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.

2. šಉྙ⨭ၰᯕುᱢŁₑ

2.1 ֝ٛ૤ւߛ஺ಅ

2.1.1 ֝૤ডծਏԩծ৤ୡ૳஺ಅ

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ŝᱶᮡᯝၹᱢᮝಽⴗƱ☖పᙽᩕ᯲

ᖒ, ⴘᙽ᭥łᖁ᯲ᖒ, ⴙĥᙹ⇵ᱶ᮹ᱩ₉ෝ঑ෙ݅. ၙǎ᮹Highway Capacity Manual(HCM) (2000) ᨱ۵ᝅྕᨱᕽᔍᬊa܆⦹ࠥಾ

Table 1ŝzᯕ5}ಽǍᇥࡽ☁ḡᯕᬊ✚ᖒᄥᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹa

ᱽŖࡹŁᯩ݅. ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮡ30~100ჩṙᔍᯕ᮹Ʊ☖పᮥ

ᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ0.091~0.100᮹ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᱽ᜽⦹Łᯩᮝ໑, ⧕ݚ ḡᩎ᮹ᯱഭෝɝÑಽ❱݉⧁ᙹᯩࠥಾḡ⋉ᮥษಉ⧕ࢱŁᯩ݅.

⦽⠙ၙǎAASHTO᮹A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets (2004) ᨱ۵Ʊ᫙eᖁࠥಽ᮹☖ĥᯱഭಽᇡ

░ࠥ⇽⦽ᙽ᭥ə௹⥥ෝ☖⧕↽ᱢ᮹ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮡᱥℕᵲ

30 ჩṙƱ☖పᮝಽ, ᯕ۵ADT᮹15% ᙹᵡᯕ௝Ł໦᜽ࡹᨕᯩ݅.

AASHTO᮹ʑᵡᮡ↽Ⅹ1965֥ᨱᱽ᜽ࡽᯕ௹ಽ⩥ᰍʭḡࠥ

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Table 1. Related Guidelines and Studies for Design Hourly Factor Estimation

Case Study Area 8,760th Curve 1,000th Curve 100th Curve

Notes

Rank K(%) Rank K(%) Rank K(%)

1 Rules about the Road Structure and Facilities Standards, Ministry of Construction and Transportation

- Urban

30 812 - - - - -

- Rural 12 18 - - - - -

2 Statistical Yearbook Related to Construction and Transportation, Ministry of Construction and Transportation

Highway -

30 7 8.5 - - - - -

Freeway - 8 15 - - - - -

3 Korea Highway Capacity Manual, Ministry of Construction and Transportation Urban

30 9(7 10) - - - - -

Rural 15(12 18) - - - - -

Highway Urban 9(711) - - - - -

Rural 15(12 18) - - - - -

4 Guideline for Highway Feasibility Studies and Schematic Design, Korea Expressway Corporation

Highway -

30 6 18 - - - - -

Freeway - 9.1 15.7 - - - - -

5 Highway Capacity Manual (TRB)

- Urbanized

30  100

9.1 - - - - -

- Urban 9.3 - - - - -

- Transitioning 9.3 - - - - -

- Rural (D) 9.5 - - - - developed

- Rural (Un-D) 10.0 - - - - undeveloped

6 A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets, AASHTO

Arterial Suburban 30 15 - - - - -

Freeway Urban 2650 812 - - - - recurrent

7 Redesigning the Design Hour for Alberta Highways, Hempsey and Teply, 1999

Arterial(Summer) 187 - - - - - -

Arterial 355 - - - - - -

Rural Arterial 507 - - - - - -

8 A Derivation of the Hourly Traffic Volume Curves for Estimating the K-factor on Highways, Bae, 1999

H-1 Seoul 140 6.4 16 6.9 3 7.2 -

H-35 Dong-Seoul 290 6.5 25 7.4 3 7.7 -

H-50 Bugok 120 6.2 15 6.5 2 6.8 -

H-100 Sungnam 300 7.3 25 8.5 2 9.0 -

H-120 Incheon 140 6.3 15 6.8 2 7.0 -

H-15 Gunja 180 6.5 30 7.7 6 9.8 -

Maesong 420 7.5 57 9.5 4 11.2 -

H-110 Nam-Incheon 180 7.3 26 8.0 2 8.2 -

Average 225 7.0 30 7.7 4 9.2 -

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Table 1. Related Guidelines and Studies for Design Hourly Factor Estimation (Cont'd)

Case Study Area 8,760th Curve 1,000th Curve 100th Curve

Notes

Rank K(%) Rank K(%) Rank K(%)

9 The Derivation of Design Hourly Factor (K) Using Volume Distribution Curves, Kim, 2000

N.H.-3 Seongnam-Gwangju 23 8.3 - - - - -

N.H.-6 Yangsuri-Yangpyung 51 11.9 - - - - -

Wabu-Paldang 35 9.5 - - - - -

N.H.-37 Yeoju-Yeoju IC 24 8.6 - - - - -

N.H.-39 Songchu-Uijeongbu 24 8.2 - - - - -

N.H.-42 Yongin-Yangji 38 10.2 - - - - -

N.H.-43 Suwon-Hyangnam 25 8.7 - - - - -

N.H.-45 Yongin IC-Gwangju 27 9.1 - - - - -

National Highway

Range of K 23 51 8.2 11.9 - - - - -

Average 29 9.1 - - - - -

10 Determination of Design Hour Rank Considering Design Level of Service, Moon et al., 2004

National Highway( 4) 150 - - - - - -

11 A Study on The Value of Roads Grade K-factor in Roadways Design, Kim, 2006

N.H.(4) Urban

10 12 - - - - National

Highway

N.H.(2) Tourist Spot 24 - - - -

12 The Selection of Optimal Probability Distribution and Estimation for Design Hourly Factor in National Highway Roads, Cho, 2006

Arterial Suburban 30 15 - - - - -

Freeway Urban 26 50 8 12 - - - - recurrent

ə ԕᬊᨱ ᄡ࠺ᯕ ᨧ݅. ᯝᅙ ࠥಽ⩲⫭᮹ ࠥಽǍ᳑ಚ᮹ ⧕ᖅŝ

ᬕᬊ(1999)ᨱᕽᩎ᜽ၙǎᔍಡ᪡࠺ᯝ⦹í30ჩṙ᜽eƱ☖పᮥ

ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮥ ᱽ᜽⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

2.1.2 ֝ٛডծਏԩծ৤ୡ૳஺ಅ

ࠥಽ᮹ Ǎ᳑·᜽ᖅ ʑᵡᨱ š⦽ Ƚ⊺ ⧕ᖅ ၰ ḡ⋉ (2000)ᮡ

ǎ᫙ᔍಡ᪡࠺ᯝ⦹í∊ᇥ⦽Ʊ☖పᯱഭ᮹ᇡᰍ᪡šಉࡽᩑǍ᮹

⦽ĥෝᯕᮁಽ30ჩṙ᜽eƱ☖పᮥᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮝಽ₥┾⦹

Łᯩ݅. ݅อ, Łᗮࠥಽ᪡zᯕᩑᵲƱ☖ప᮹ᄡ⪵aᝍ⦽Ğᬑᨱ ۵ ✚ᄥ⦽ Łಅa ⦥᫵⦹݅Ł ᱽ᜽⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

ࠥಽᬊప⠙௭(2001)ᨱᕽ۵ๅ֥ၽeࡹ۵⧕ݚḡᩎ᮹Ʊ☖ప

ᔢ᜽᳑ᔍᯱഭ(ࠥಽƱ☖ప☖ĥᩑᅕ)ෝ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩍ⧕ݚᔍᨦᨱ฿í

ᱢᬊ⦹ࠥಾ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᱢᱶ⦽sᮥǍ⧁ᙹᨧ۵Ğᬑᨱ۵Table 1ŝ zᮡ ᇥඹᨱ ঑௝ ᔍᬊ⦹ࠥಾ ⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

Łᗮࠥಽ┡ݚᖒ᳑ᔍၰʑᅙᖅĥᝅྕḡ⋉ᕽ(1999)۵Łᗮࠥ

ಽƱ☖ప᳑ᔍᯱഭෝᬑᖁᱢᮝಽ⪽ᬊ☁ಾ⦹Łᯩᮝ໑, ŝᨦיᖁ ᮹ᖒĊၰḡᩎᱢ✚ᖒᯕᮁᔍ⦽ʑ᳕ࠥಽ᮹ᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ࠥಾ

⦹Łᯩ݅. ǎԕݡᇡᇥ᮹ḡ⋉ᨱᕽ۵ʑᅙᱢᮝಽ30ჩṙᙽ᭥ෝ

ᱢᬊ⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

2.2 ডծਏԩծ৤ॺ୨ւߛ઴֜

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹᔑᱶŝšಉࡽᖁ⧪ᩑǍ۵Ⓧíᖙaḡ⮱෥ᮝಽ

ᇥඹ⧕ᅝ ᙹ ᯩ݅.

ⴗ ᙽ᭥łᖁ᮹Ⓧʑӹ⩶┽ෝᄡ⩶⦹۵ႊ᜾ᮝಽᄡłᱱᮥ₟۵

ႊ᜾ᨱ š⦽ ᩑǍ(ᄡłᱱ ┱ᔪ ᩑǍ)

ⴘ ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹᨱݡ⦽}ֱᯱℕෝᰍᱶพ⦹ᩍᔑᱶ⦹۵ႊ᜾

ᨱ š⦽ ᩑǍ(}ֱ ᰍᱶพ ᩑǍ)

ⴙ ᙽ᭥łᖁᮥ☖⧕༉⩶ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹Ł, ᯕෝᯕᬊ⧕ᕽᖅĥ᜽e ĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ႊ᜾ᨱš⦽ᩑǍ(ᙽ᭥łᖁ༉⩶⇵ᱶᩑǍ)

2.2.1 ࣡մ୥೹আ઴֜

⍥░┅ᵝ(Commonwealth of Kentucky, 1977)ᨱᕽ۵HCM

ႊ᜾᮹᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥łᖁᨱᕽᄡłᱱᮥ໦⪶⯩ḡᱶ⧁ᙹᨧᮭ

ᮥᨙɪ⦹Ł, ᙽ᭥łᖁᮥ8,760ᙽ᭥, ᔢ᭥1,000ᙽ᭥, ᔢ᭥100ᙽ

᭥᮹ᖙaḡ⩶┽ಽᖙᇥ⦹ᩍᇥᕾᮥ᜽ࠥ⦹ᩡ݅. ᵝᱶᇡ۵ᄡłᱱ

┱ᔪᨱᯩᨕᔢ᭥1,000ᙽ᭥łᖁᮥᯕᬊ⦹۵äᯕᄡłᱱჵ᭥ෝ

₟۵ߑ ޵ ૽ಘ⧁ äᮝಽ ᅕŁ ᔍᬊᮥ ǭŁ⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

Hempsey et al.(1999)ᮡHCMᨱᕽᖅ໦⦹۵ʑ᳕30ჩṙᙽ᭥

᜽eᔑᱶႊჶ᮹ྙᱽᱱᮥḡᱢ⦹ᩡ݅. Fig. 2ᨱᕽ⃹ౝ, ᙽ᭥łᖁ

᮹ჵ᭥(300ᙽ᭥, 8,760ᙽ᭥)ᨱ঑ෙᔑᱶđŝ᮹₉ᯕෝᖅ໦⦹ᩡ

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Fig. 2. Hourly Traffic Volume Curves (Hepsey and Teply, 1999)

Fig. 3. Rank Reversal (Moon et al., 2003)

݅. Baek et al.(2007)ᮡǎ᫙ᔍಡ᪡ݍญ30ჩṙᙽ᭥aḡᩎᱢ

✚ᖒᮥ∊ᇥ⯩ၹᩢ⦹ḡ༜⧉ᮥḡᱢ⦹Ł, łශᮥᯕᬊ⦽ᄡłᱱ (knee of the curve) ᔑᱶ᜾ᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᙽ᭥łᖁ᮹ʑᬙʑaɪĊ

⯩ ᄡ⪵⦹۵ ḡᱱᮝಽ ᖅ໦⦹ᩡ݅.

2.2.2 Թڄ୍୨ࠩ઴֜

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ᪡޵ᇩᨕᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᔑᱶᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵

ᵲ᫵ᄡᙹ۵ᵲႊ⨆ĥᙹ(D Factor)ᯕ݅. Wu(1994), Sharma et al.(1992, 1995), Moon et al.(2003), Liu et al.(2006)ᮡʑ᳕᮹ᵲႊ⨆

ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖ప(DDHV, Directional Design Hour Volume)ᯕ

᧲ႊ⨆᜽eƱ☖ప᮹⧊ᮝಽᇡ░K factor, D factorෝࠥ⇽⦹ᩍ

ᔑᱶࡹŁᯩᮭᨱ঑௝ᖅĥᙽ᭥᪡ᝅᱽᙽ᭥᮹₉ᯕ, DDHV ᔑᱶ

s᮹᪅₉, DDHV᮹ᇩȽ⊺⦽ᄡ࠺॒᮹ྙᱽaၽᔾ⦽݅۵ᱱᮥ

ḡᱢ⦹Łᯕෝ⧕đ⧁ᙹᯩ۵ݡᦩᮝಽᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ᪡ᵲႊ⨆ĥ ᙹ᮹ Œᮝಽ៉ ࠺᜽ᨱ ࠥ⇽ࡹᨕ᧝ ⦽݅Ł ᱽ᜽⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

Moon et al.(2003)ᮡƱ☖ప⮱෥ᨱݡ⦽ႊ⨆ᖒǍᇥᨧᯕ

ᱢᬊ⧁Ğᬑ, Fig. 3ŝzᯕᙽ᭥aᩎᱥࡹ۵॒ŝݡੱ۵ŝᗭ

⇵ᱶ᮹ ᬑಅa ᯩᮭᮥ ḡᱢ⦹ᩡ݅.

2.2.3 ০଍մটࡦ෴౟୨઴֜

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ߑᯩᨕ݅᧲⦽⇵ᱶႊ᜾ॅᯕᱽ᜽ࡹ

Łᯩᮝ໑, ᵝಽ݅൉ᨕḡŁᯩ۵ႊ᜾ᮝಽ۵Sharma et al.(1988), Bailey(1988), Byrne(2007), Kim(2000), Lee(2001), ᯥᖒ⦽॒

(2003)᮹ᩑǍᨱᕽ᪡zᯕᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ŝᱶᨱᯩᨕ

ᩑ⠪Ɂ ᯝƱ☖ప(AADT)ŝ᮹ šĥ᜾ ⇵ᱶᯕ ᯩ݅.

Sharma et al.(1988)ᮡᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖ప(DHV)ᮥᨕਜíᩩ⊂⧁

äᯙḡᨱšᝍᯕᯩᨩᮝ໑, ⦽ḡᱱ᮹30ჩṙᙽ᭥Ʊ☖పŝAADT ᔍᯕ᮹šĥෝᯝšࡹíᩩ⊂⧁ᙹᯩࠥಾ⦹۵ߑᵝᦩᮥࢱᨩ݅.

Sharma et al .(1988)ᮡ݉ᯝ༉⩶ŝᮁ⩶ᄥ༉⩶, ࢱaḡ⩶┽ಽ

Ǎᇥ⦹ᩍ DHV༉⩶(30HV-AADT šĥ᜾)ᮥ ᱽ᜽⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

Bailey(1988) ۵7ᬵᯕӹ8ᬵᵝัƱ☖పḲĥෝʑၹᮝಽ30ჩ ṙᙽ᭥᜽eᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹۵ႊჶŝAADT᪡᮹ᖁ⩶šĥ᜾ᮝಽ⇵ᱶ

⦹۵ ႊჶᮥ ᱽ᜽⦹Ł ᯩ݅. Ğᬑᨱ ঑௝ ࢱ ႊჶᯕ ᬊᯕ⧁ ᙹ

ᯩᮭᮥ ᖅ໦⦹ᩡ݅.

Byrne(2007) ۵Sharma et al.(1988)ŝᮁᔍ⦽ᩑǍෝᙹ⧪⦹ᩡ

۵ߑ, ქຝ✙ ᵝ᮹ ࠥಽෝ 6} ᮁ⩶ᮝಽ ᇥඹ⦹Ł b ᮁ⩶ᄥಽ

AADT ෝࠦพᄡᙹಽ⦹ᩍᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹۵⫭ȡ༉⩶

ᮥá☁⦹ᩡ݅. ੱ⦽ᄥࠥಽᔢᙹ⧎ᯕᨧ۵Ḣᖁ⫭ȡ᜾᮹ʑᬙʑෝ

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹಽ⧕ᕾ⦹۵ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹḢᱲ⇵ᱶ༉⩶ᮥᱽ᜽⦹ᩡ

݅. ə్ӹᯕםྙᩎ᜽30ჩṙᙽ᭥᜽eƱ☖పᮥᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖ప ᮹ ༉ᙹಽ aᱶ⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

Kim(2000)ᮡĞʑࠥԕᯝၹǎࠥෝݡᔢᮝಽᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖ప

ᙽ᭥łᖁᯕw۵ᄡłᱱჵ᭥ෝ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩍࠥಽ᮹☖⧪✚ᖒ(bיᖁ ᮹ ĥᱩᄥ, ᬵᄥ, ᫵ᯝᄥ, ᜽eᄥ Ʊ☖✚ᖒ)ŝ ᙽ᭥łᖁᯕ w۵

ᯝၹᱢᯙ✚ᖒᮥ₟ᦥԕŁᙽ᭥łᖁᯕw۵ ༉⩶᜾ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩍ

ḡᩎ(Ğʑࠥ) ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅. Kim(2000)ᮡᄡłᱱᮥ

₟ʑ ᭥⧕ ᙽ᭥łᖁᮥ ᬑᖁ ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

Lee(2001)ᮡ ᙹࠥǭ ԕ ᯝၹǎࠥ᮹ ᙽ᭥łᖁᯕ S⩶ łᖁᯙ

ᱱᨱqᦩ⦹ᩍKim(2000)᮹ᩑǍ᪡۵ݍญᙽ᭥łᖁᮥݡᙹ༉⩶

ᮝಽ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. Lee(2001)ᮡᔢ᭥1,000ᙽ᭥łᖁŝᔢ᭥100ᙽ

᭥łᖁᮥ4}᮹ࠥಽᮁ⩶(ࠥ᜽ᇡ, ḡႊᇡ, 2₉ಽǎࠥ, šŲḡ)ᄥಽ

bb ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

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Fig. 4. The Knee Searching Method based on Simple Linear Regression

Lim et al.(2003) ᮡᯝၹǎࠥෝݡᔢᮝಽ⦹ᩍK30ŝAADTe ᮹šĥෝȽ໦⦹Łᯕෝ⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥ☖⧕༉⩶⪵⦹ᩡ݅. Lim et al.(2003) ᮹ᩑǍaʑ᳕ႊ᜾ŝ݅ෙ✚Ḷᮡእᖁ⩶༉⩶ᮝಽ

⇵ᱶࡹŁ ᯩ݅۵ äᯕ݅.

Cho et al.(2006) ᮡᯝၹǎࠥෝݡᔢᮝಽ⦹ᩍᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ᮹

⪶ශᇥ⡍༉⩶ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹Łᯩ݅۵äᯕʑ᳕᮹⇵ᱶႊ᜾ŝ۵₉ᄥ

⪵ࡹŁᯩ݅. Normal, Inverse, Gaussian, Log-normal II, Erlang

॒14}᮹⪶ශᇥ⡍༉⩶ᮥࠥ᜽ᇡ, ḡႊᇡ(2₉ಽ, 4₉ಽ), šŲᇡ

ࠥಽ॒ࠥಽᮁ⩶ᄥಽá☁⦹ᩍaᰆᖅ໦ಆᯕ׳ᮡ⪶ශᇥ⡍༉⩶

ᮥᖁᱶ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᯕᩑǍᩎ᜽30ჩṙᙽ᭥ಽaᱶ⦹ᩍᱢᬊ⦹Ł

ᯩ݅.

3. Simple Linear Regressionᮥᯕᬊ⦽knee ┱ᔪჶࠥ⇽

3.1 ׆୼઴֜૕ଭఙ࣢ন

ᅙᩑǍ۵ᦿᕽᇥඹ⦽ᩑǍᵲᨱᕽᄡłᱱ┱ᔪᩑǍᨱᗮ⦽݅.

↽ɝ Baek et al.(2007)ᯕ łශᮥ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ ᄡłᱱᮥ đᱶ⦹۵

ႊჶᮥᱽᦩ⦹ᩡᮝӹ, əᯕᱥᨱᙽ᭥łᖁᮥ⫭ȡ᜾༉⩶ᮝಽ⇵ᱶ

⦹۵ŝᱶ(ᙽ᭥łᖁ༉⩶⇵ᱶᩑǍᨱ⧕ݚ)ᯕ⦥᫵⦹ᩡ݅. ᅙᩑǍ ۵ᙽ᭥łᖁ᮹༉⩶ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ḡᦫʑভྙᨱ, ᔢݡᱢᮝಽḢšᱢᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᯝťᱢᮝಽᱢᬊࡹ۵30ჩṙᙽ᭥ෝᯕᬊ⦽ᖅĥ᜽e ĥᙹ᮹ྙᱽᱱᮥ}ᖁ⦹Łᯱ, ݡᦩᮝಽ៉Simple Linear Regression

ᮥ ᯕᬊ⦽ knee ┱ᔪჶᮥ ᱽᦩ⦹ᩡ݅.

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽᱽᦩ⦹۵┱ᔪჶᮡSalvador et al.(2004)ᯕᱶญ⦽

knee( ᄡłᱱ, łᖁ᮹ ʑᬙʑ ✚ᖒᯕ ᄡ⦹۵ ḡᱱ) ┱ᔪ ႊჶᮥ

ₙŁ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ԕᬊᮡ ݅ᮭŝ z݅.

ⴗ ࢱ ᱱe᮹ ↽ݡ ⠙₉(the largest magnitude difference between two points)

ⴘ ࢱᱱe᮹↽ݡᄡ⪵ᮉ(the largest ratio difference between two points)

ⴙ ✚ᱶᯥĥ⊹ෝⅩŝ⦹۵ℌჩṙ2ĥࠥ⧉ᙹs(the first data point with a second derivate above some threshold value)

ⴚ 2ĥࠥ⧉ᙹsᯕ↽ݡaࡹ۵ᱱ(the data point with the largest second derivative)

ⴛ łᖁᮥᱲ⧊⦽Ḣᖁᨱᕽ᮹Ñญa↽ݡaࡹ۵ᱱ(the point on the curve that is furthest from a line fitted to the entire curve)

ⴜ łᖁᮥ2}᮹Ḣᖁᮝಽᱲ⧊⦽⬥᪅₉᮹⧊ᯕ↽ᗭaࡹ۵

ࢱḢᖁ᮹ᱲᱱ(L-method, which finds the boundary between the pair of straight lines that most closely fit the curve)

3.2 Simple Linear Regressionଡଲ૳෉knee ೹আ࣑

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵Fig. 4᪡zᯕࢱᱱᔍᯕ᮹Ǎesॅᨱݡ⦽

Simple Linear Regressionᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹Ł⇵ᱶ⦽⫭ȡḢᖁ᮹s(༉⩶

⇵ᱶs)ŝᙽ᭥łᖁᔢᨱ᭥⊹⦽s(ᝅᱽs) ᔍᯕ᮹᪅₉ෝᯕᬊ⦹

ᩍ łᖁ᮹ ᄡ⪵ෝ ┱ᔪ⦹ᩡ݅.

ᙽ᭥łᖁ᮹ᄡ⪵ෝ┱ᔪ⦹ʑ᭥⧕᜽ᱱ(ᙽ᭥łᖁᔢ1ᙽ᭥ḡᱱ)

ᮡŁᱶ⦽₥ᇥᕾǍe᮹᳦ᱱ(š⊂s3}ᯕᔢᮥŁಅ⧉ᨱ঑௝, 1, 2 ᙽ᭥ෝᱽ᫙⦽ᙽ᭥łᖁᔢ᮹ḡᱱ)ᮥ᷾a᜽┅໕ᕽbǍeᨱ

ݡ⦽᪅₉᮹ᱽŒᮥᇥᕾǍeᙹ(ᯱᮁࠥ)ಽӹ٥ᨕ⧊ᔑ⦹ᩡ݅.

᪅₉۵ Fig. 4ᨱᕽ ኸɩᯕ ⊹ᨕḥ ᇡᇥŝ šಉࡹ໑, ᯥ᮹᮹ [a, b] Ǎeᨱ ݡ⦽ Ǎe ĥᔑ᜾ᮡ ݅ᮭŝ z݅. ᅙ םྙᨱᕽ a=1 ᯕ݅.

¬

_ƌ

á

_{ƌ á ſ}

ā

^ƀ

^ć ƀ à ſ Þ²

_ƌ

à ³

_ƌ

ß

^Ï

, _{ſ á Î} (1)

Eq. (1)ᮡFig. 4ᨱᕽ⃹ౝ᪅₉a᧲ŝᮭ᮹sᮥaḡíࢉᨱ

঑௝ᱽŒᮥᱢᬊ⦹Łᯩᮝ໑, ᇥᕾǍe᮹ჵ᭥a᷾a⧉ᨱ঑௝

᪅₉ᱽŒ⧊ᯕ᷾a⦹íࡹ۵ᩢ⨆ᮥŁಅ⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᇥᕾǍe᮹

ჵ᭥ಽӹ٥ᨕᵝŁᯩ݅. ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽᯕĥᔑ᜾( ¬

ƌ

)ᮡ‘Ǎe⠪Ɂ

᪅₉ᱽŒ⧊’ᮝಽ໦⦹ᩍᔍᬊ☁ಾ⦽݅. ݅ᮭᮝಽᖅĥ᜽eᙽ᭥۵

ᔑ⇽ࡽǍe⠪Ɂ᪅₉ᱽŒ⧊᮹₉ᇥᨱݡ⦽౑(Run) ➉▕ᮥá☁⦹

ᩍđᱶ☁ಾ⦹ᩡ݅. ౑᮹ʙᯕaǍᇥࡹᨕḡ۵ḡᱱᮝಽ౑➉▕ᮥ

á☁⦹ᩡ݅.

3.3 ডծਏԩծ৤ॺ୨: ౦఻ܑଵࢱܑ֝۩ঃ

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵Simple Linear Regressionᮥᯕᬊ⦽knee ┱ᔪ

ჶᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᖅĥ᜽eᙽ᭥ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. Fig. 5᪡zᯕᱥၹᱢᮝ

ಽǍe⠪Ɂ᪅₉ᱽŒ⧊ᯕ᷾a⦹݅qᗭ⦹۵ ḡᱱᯕ₥┾ࡹŁ

(7)

[ 8,760th Rank Curve ]

[ 5,000th Rank Curve ]

[ ¬

_ƌ

Curve ]

K Rank K Factor D Factor KD Factor

194th 8.60% 57.38% 4.93%

Fig. 5. Design Hourly Volume Estimation (Station 0124-0)

[ 8,760th Rank Curve ]

[ 5,000th Rank Curve ]

[ ¬

_ƌ

Curve ]

K Rank K Factor D Factor KD Factor

422rd 8.66% 72.31% 6.26%

Fig. 6. Design Hourly Volume Estimation (Station 2924-2)

ᯩᮝ໑, Fig. 6ŝzᯕ↽ᔢ᭥ᙽ᭥ə൚᮹sᯕⓑᔢ᜽᳑ᔍḡᱱ

[2924-2] ᮹Ğᬑᄡ⪵ಽᯙ᜾⧁ᙹᯩ۵(qᗭ⦹݅᷾a⦹۵) ḡᱱ

ᮥ ₥┾⦹ᩡ݅.

49 } ᳑ᔍḡᱱᮥݡᔢᮝಽᔑᱶ⦽ᖅĥ᜽eᙽ᭥᪡ᖅĥ᜽eĥ ᙹ۵ Table 2ᨱ ᱽ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᖅĥ᜽eᙽ᭥۵ ↽ᗭ 43ᙽ᭥ᨱᕽ

↽ݡ694ᙽ᭥ʭḡá☁ࡹŁᯩᮝ໑, ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ۵↽ᗭ7.74%

ᨱᕽ ↽ݡ 20.66%ʭḡ ᔑᱶࡹᨩ݅. ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ۵ b %ᄥಽ

7% ݡ(2ḡᱱ), 8%ݡ(22ḡᱱ), 9%ݡ(10ḡᱱ), 10%ݡ(4ḡᱱ), 11%

ݡ(4ḡᱱ), 12%ݡ(4ḡᱱ), 20%ݡ(3ḡᱱ)ಽ᳑ᔍࡹᨩ݅. ݡℕᱢᮝ ಽ8~9%ݡᨱᕽᔑᱶࡹŁᯩ۵äᮝಽá☁ࡹᨩ݅. ᇥᕾḡᱱᵲ

ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᅕ݅׳ᮡ᜽eƱ☖పᯕӹ┡ӹ۵እᮉᮡ֥eݡ

ᇡᇥ5% ၙอᯕ໑, 3ḡᱱᮡ10% ၙอᯕᨩ݅. ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ(K)᪡

ᵲႊ⨆ĥᙹ(D)᮹Œᯙᵲႊ⨆ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ(KD)۵↽ᗭ3.93%ᨱ ᕽ ↽ݡ 11.51%ಽ ᔑᱶࡹᨩ݅.

3.4 ॺ୨ܤডծਏԩծ৤Ցഠ

49 }ᔢ᜽᳑ᔍḡᱱƱ☖పᮥBox-plotᮥ☖⧕á☁⧕ᅙđŝ,

✚ᯕ⊹a⠪Ɂ4.7ᯝ(↽ᗭ⦹൉, ↽ݡ36ᯝ)ಽá☁ࡹᨩ݅. ʑ᳕⃹

ౝၙǎḡ⋉ᨱᕽ᜽᯲⦽30ჩṙᙽ᭥ෝᔍᬊ⦹íࢁĞᬑ, ᬑญӹ௝

✚ᖒᔢ✚ᯕ⊹ᯙ໦ᱩʑeอᱽ᫙⦹۵äᮝಽᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮥ

ᔑᱶ⦹íࡽ݅Łᅝᙹᯩ݅. ݅᜽ั⧕, ໦ᱩʑeᯕ᫙᮹ḡᩎᱢ

✚ᯕ⊹aၹᩢࡹḡ༜⦽ᯝšࡽᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ᮹ᔑᱶᮝಽŝݡ⇵

(8)

Table 2. Stational Design Hourly Rank and K Factor

Station K Rank K Factor(%) Station K Rank K Factor(%) Station K Rank K Factor(%)

[2922-0] 663 7.74 [0405-1] 68 8.78 [3209-3] 76 9.87

[0130-1] 80 7.98 [2114-0] 78 8.80 [3408-0] 48 10.01

[0131-2] 76 8.12 [2324-1] 114 8.82 [2921-1] 119 10.17

[0325-4] 226 8.14 [1720-1] 143 8.83 [2518-2] 91 10.94

[3801-6] 466 8.21 [1719-2] 139 8.84 [3810-0] 123 11.06

[0132-0] 127 8.28 [3808-0] 487 8.85 [2915-4] 130 11.32

[3404-0] 159 8.28 [0406-2] 97 8.97 [0524-4] 127 11.51

[1720-0] 337 8.32 [2111-1] 83 9.01 [3808-1] 158 11.56

[3902-0] 682 8.35 [2919-0] 174 9.14 [2101-5] 168 12.13

[0324-3] 694 8.43 [0127-1] 94 9.17 [3604-3] 97 12.23

[0124-0] 194 8.60 [0126-0] 87 9.26 [0324-2] 557 12.42

[0325-3] 251 8.60 [3209-1] 128 9.29 [1923-4] 85 12.95

[0325-1] 177 8.66 [3609-1] 128 9.58 [4001-5] 57 19.74

[2924-2] 422 8.66 [3707-0] 86 9.58 [3201-0] 107 20.30

[2917-0] 225 8.70 [1919-1] 442 9.66 [7720-0] 43 20.66

[1922-0] 136 8.71 [2106-4] 141 9.67

[0127-2] 112 8.78 [1716-2] 161 9.85

ᱶ᮹ a܆ᖒᯕ ׳ᦥḩ ᬑಅa ᯩ݅.

49}ᔢ᜽᳑ᔍḡᱱᵲᕽ⧕ᦩᨱ᭥⊹⦹۵[7720-0], [3201-0], [4001-5]ḡᱱ(Fig. 7᮹(A)ᩢᩎᨱ⧕ݚ)ᮡšŲࠥಽ᮹✚ᖒᨱ঑௝

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹa19% ᯕᔢᮥᅕᯕŁᯩ݅. ʡჵḥ॒(2006)ᮡšŲ

᭥௞ḡᩎᮥݡᔢᮝಽᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ24%ෝᔑᱶ⦹ŁᯩᨕᅙᩑǍ

᪡ɝᱲ⦽đŝෝᖅ໦⦽݅. ᅙᇥᕾḡᱱ᮹⠪Ɂ⪵ྜྷ₉☖⧪እᮉᮡ

25.78%ᯕ໑, ↽ᗭ 7.84%ᨱᕽ ↽ݡ 53.80%ಽ ᳑ᔍࡹŁ ᯩ݅.

Fig. 7᮹(B)ᩢᩎᨱ⧕ݚ⦹۵ḡᱱᮡ↽ᔢ᭥ə൚᮹᜽eƱ☖పᯕ

ᔢݡᱢᮝಽⓍ໑, ⪵ྜྷ₉☖⧪እᮉᯕ׳ᮡᔑᨦࠥಽ᮹✚ᖒᮥၹᩢ

⦹Ł ᯩ݅.

4. đುၰ⨆⬥ŝᱽ

4.1 էߨ

ŝÑ᪡ ݍญ Ʊ☖ప᳑ᔍa ʑᚁᱢᮝಽ घၼ⋉ࡹŁ ᯩḡอ,

⩥ᰍʭḡᔢ᭥30ᙽ᭥ෝᖅĥ᜽eᙽ᭥ಽᔍᬊ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᦿᕽᖅ໦

⦹ᩡॐᯕ, ᯕ్⦽ ᯝť ᱢᬊᮡ ḡᩎ Ʊ☖✚ᖒᯕ ၹᩢࡹḡ ᦫᦥ

ŝݡੱ۵ŝᗭ⇵ᱶ᮹đŝෝԔᮥᙹᯩ݅. ޵ᬒᯕaᰆɝᅙᱢᯙ

ྙᱽ۵ᖅĥ᜽eᙽ᭥ෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ߑᯩᨕᕽᙽ᭥łᖁ᮹ᄡłᱱᮥ

┱ᔪ⦹۵ŝᱶᯕᯕುᱢᮝಽၵ┶ᮥࢱŁᯩḡᦫᮝ໑ᵝšᱢᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍ۵ḡᩎƱ☖✚ᖒᮥၹᩢ⦽ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⧉ᮝಽ

៉⧊ญᱢᯙࠥಽ᜽ᖅȽ༉ᔑᱶᨱᯕၵḡ⦹Łᯱ⦹ᩡ݅. ᖅĥ᜽e ĥᙹᔑᱶŝᱶ᮹}ᖁᮥ᭥⧕, ᅙᩑǍ۵ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹᔑᱶšಉ

ᩑǍᵲ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥łᖁᨱᕽᄡłᱱᮥ┱ᔪ⦹۵ႊჶᨱݡ⦽

ᩑǍෝᙹ⧪⦹ᩡ݅. ᱽᦩ⦹Łᯩ۵ႊჶುᮡ݉ᙽᖁ⩶⫭ȡ(Simple Linear Regression)ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᄡłᱱ(knee)ᮥ┱ᔪ⦹Łᯩᮝ໑, ᅙᩑǍ᮹ʑჶᮥ∊ℎǭᯝၹǎࠥᨱ ᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝ

ᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

ᅙᩑǍ᮹đŝ, ∊ℎǭᯝၹǎࠥ49}ᔢ᜽᳑ᔍḡᱱᮡᖅĥ᜽e ᙽ᭥a43~694ᙽ᭥ಽᯝၹᱢᮝಽᔍᬊࡹ۵30ჩṙᙽ᭥ᅕ݅༉ࢱ

⦹᭥ᙽ᭥ᨱᕽၽᔾࡹŁᯩᮭᮥ⪶ᯙ⧁ᙹᯩᨩ݅. ʑ᳕ḡ⋉ŝ

እƱ⦹໕ ₉ಽᙹ đᱶ᜽, ᔢݡᱢᮝಽ ŝᗭ⇵ᱶ᮹ ᬑಅa ᯩ݅.

⦹ḡอᯕ౑⧕ᕾŝݍญʑ᳕ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ۵ḡ⋉ᨱᕽ⠪Ɂsᮝ

ಽᱽŖࡹŁᯩʑভྙᨱ, ᅙᩑǍ᮹ᇥᕾḡᱱŝእƱ⦹໕ᔢݡᱢᮝ

(9)

ಽ ŝݡ ੱ۵ ŝᗭ⇵ᱶᯕ ࢁ ᙹ ᯩ݅.

4.2 ේบ઴֜ր୪

ᅙ ᩑǍ۵ ᙽ᭥łᖁ᮹ ᔢ᭥ 30ᙽ᭥ᨱ ݡ⦽ ʑᅙ aᱶ ᨧᯕ, ᙹ⦺ᱢᮝಽ ᱲɝᮥ ⦹Ł ᯩ݅۵ ᱱᨱᕽ ᩑǍ᮹ ᖒŝෝ ᱽ᜽⧁

ᙹᯩ݅. ⦹ḡอᱽ᜽⦽ʑჶᨱݡ⦽ᱢ⧊ᖒ⊂໕ᨱᕽ᮹á☁۵

⨆⬥ ᳡ ޵ ⇵aᱢᮝಽ ŁಅࡹᨕᲙ᧝ ⧁ äᮝಽ ❱݉ࡽ݅.

ੱ⦽ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ᪡ᵲႊ⨆ĥᙹෝ}ᄥᱢᮝಽ

ᔑᱶ⦹Łᯩᮭᨱ঑௝, Wu(1984)᪡ྙၙĞ॒(2003)ᯕḡᱢ⦽

ä⃹ౝ ᖅĥᙽ᭥᪡ ᝅᱽᙽ᭥᮹ ₉ᯕ, DDHV ᔑᱶ s᮹ ᪅₉, DDHV ᮹ᇩȽ⊺⦽ᄡ࠺॒᮹ྙᱽaၽᔾ⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ

ᔑᱶŝᱶᵲ}ֱᰍᱶพᩑǍᨱᕽᱽ᜽⦹ᩡॐᯕ, Ʊ☖ప⮱෥ᨱ

ݡ⦽ႊ⨆ᖒᮥᱢᬊ⦹ʑ᭥⧕⨆⬥ᵲႊ⨆ĥᙹෝ࠺᜽ᨱᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ

ᇥᕾ⧁ ⦥᫵a ᯩ݅.

qᔍ᮹ɡ

ᯕםྙᮡ2012֥ࠥᱶᇡ(ၙ௹₞᳑ŝ⦺ᇡ)᮹ᰍᬱᮝಽ⦽ǎᩑ Ǎᰍ݉᮹ ḡᬱᮥ ၼᦥ ᙹ⧪ࡽ ᩑǍᯥ(NRF-2010-0029446).

References

AASHTO (2004). A policy on geometric design of highways and streets, AASHTO.

Bae, H. J. (1999). A derivation of the hourly traffic volume curves for estimating the K-factor on highways, Master’s Thesis, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea (in Korean).

Baek, S. K., Kim, B. J., Lee, J. H. and Son, Y. T. (2007). “Design hourly factor estimation with vehicle detection system.” Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Korean Society of Transportation, Vol. 25, No. 6, pp. 79-88 (in Korean).

Bailey, M. J. (1981). “Estimation of design hour volume.” ITE Journal, Vol. 51, Issue. 8, pp. 50-56.

Byrne, B. (1993). Revised method for estimating design hourly volumes in vermont, Transportation Research Record, No. 1993.

Cho, J. H., Han, J. H., Kim, S. H. and Lee, B. S. (2006). “The selection of optimal probability distribution and estimation for design hourly factor in national highway roads.” Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Korean Society of Transportation, Vol.

24, No. 6, pp. 33-43 (in Korean).

Harmelink, M. D. (1968). Estimation of annual average daily traffic and thirtieth highest hourly volume, Department of Highways Ontario, Report No. 140.

Heibl, J. J. (1965). A method for estimating design hourly traffic volumes, Highway Research Record, No. 72, pp. 88-100.

Hempsey, L. J. and Teply, S. (1999). “Redesigning the design hour for alberta highways.” ITE Journal, Vol. 69, Issue. 5, pp. 43-48.

Kim, J. H. (2000). The derivation of design hourly factor (k) using volume distribution curves, Master’s Thesis, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea (in Korean).

Lee, Y. K. (2001). A derivation of the hourly traffic volume curves for estimating the K-factor on national roadways, Master’s Thesis, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea (in Korean).

Lim, S. H., Kim, Y. S., Byun, S. C. and Oh, J. S. (2006). “Estimation of design hourly factor using AADT of national highway roads.”

Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 23, No. 1D, pp. 19-26 (in Korean).

Liu, Z. and Sharma, S. C. (2006). Predicting directional design hourly volume from statutory holiday traffic, Transportation Research Record, Issue. 1968, pp. 30-39.

Ministry of Construction and Transportation (2000). Rules bout the Road Structure and Facilities Standards (in Korean).

Ministry of Construction and Transportation (2001). Korea highway capacity manual (in Korean).

Moon, M. K., Jang, M. S. and Kang, J. S. (2003). “A study on improvement of the DDHV estimating method.” Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Korean Society of Transportation, Vol. 21, No. 5, pp. 61-71 (in Korean).

Moon, M. K., Jang, M. S. and Kang, J. S. (2004). “Determination of design hour rank considering design level of service.” Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 55-63 (in Korean).

Schoon, J. G. (2000). Geometric design projects for highways: An Introduction (Second Edition), ASCE Press.

Sharma, S. C. and Oh, J. Y. (1988). “Prediction of design hour volume as a function of amount and nature of travel.” ITE Journal, Volume. 58, Issue. 2, pp. 19-24.

Sharma, S. C. and Oh, J. Y. (1990). “Prediction of design volume from highest hours of monthly traffic flow.” ITE Journal, Volume. 60, Issue. 9, pp. 25-31.

Sharma, S. C. and Singh, A. K. (1992). “Reexamination of directional distribution of highway traffic.” Journal of Transportation Engineering, Volume. 118, pp. 323-337.

Sharma, S. C., Oh, J. Y. and Wyatt, J. J. (1987). “Estimation of design hourly volume from seasonal traffic counts.” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume. 14, pp. 728-731.

Sharma, S. C., Wu, Y. and Rizak, S. N. (1995). “Determination of DDHV from directional traffic flows.” Journal of Transportation Engineering, Volume. 121, Issue. 4, pp. 369-375.

Estimating Road Design Hourly Volume via Inflection Point Identification

Received March 5, 2013/ revised May 8, 2013/ accepted July 29, 2013

Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0)

 ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹ͸ͷʹȀ ǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͸ǤʹͶʹ͹ Ǥ ǤǤ

ੲনత ȵౖ׆ச ȵ׌ऀ଀

Ahn, Seongchae*, Choi, Keechoo**, Kim, Boowon***

Estimating Road Design Hourly Volume via Inflection Point Identification

ABSTRACT

volume is used.

Key words : Design hourly volume, K-factor, Hourly volume ranking curve, Knee (inflection point) search, Linear regression

Ⅹಾ

᭥⧕ᕽ۵ᯕುᱢɝÑᨱၵ┶ᮥࢵᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹࠥ⇽ᯕ⦥᫵⦹݅. ᅙᩑǍ۵⩥ᰍʭḡŁᙹࡹŁᯩ۵30ჩṙᙽ᭥aŝᩑ᪔ᮡäᯙaᨱᵲᱱ

ಽᯝၹᱢᮝಽᔍᬊࡹ۵30ᙽ᭥ᅕ݅༉ࢱ⦹᭥ᙽ᭥ᨱᕽၽᔾࡹŁᯩᨩ޹ၵ, 30ᙽ᭥Ʊ☖పᮥᔍᬊ⧁Ğᬑ᧞e᮹ŝ݅ᖅĥaᯕ൉ᨕḩᙹᯩ

ᮭᯕ⪶ᯙࡹᨩ݅.

áᔪᨕ ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ, ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥, ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥łᖁ, ᄡłᱱ┱ᔪʑჶ, ݉ᙽᖁ⩶⫭ȡ

1. ᕽು

ᖅĥ᜽e᮹}ֱᮡ1950֥ݡၙǎ᮹ᩑႊࠥಽšญℎ(FHWA)ᨱᕽ↽Ⅹಽᱽᦩ⦹ᩡ޹1֥ᵲ30ჩṙᙽ᭥᮹᜽eƱ☖పᮥʑၹᮝಽ

⦹Łᯩ݅. ᩑᵲ8,760᜽eᨱݡ⦽ԕฝ₉ᙽ᮹ᙽ᭥ࠥłᖁᮥᔍᬊ⦹໑, łᖁ᮹ʑᬙʑaɪᄡ⦹۵(ੱ۵᪥อ⧕ḡ۵) ᙽ᭥ෝĞ⨹ᱢᮝಽ

 İࣀėॡ

30 ჩṙᙽ᭥ಽᅕŁ, ᯕෝᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᖅᱶ᮹ᵡÑಽᔝᦹ݅.

ŝÑ, ༉ु᜽eݡ᮹Ʊ☖ప᳑ᔍa⯹ॅᨩ޹᜽ʑᨱᔍᬊࡹᨩ޹

ႊ᜾ᯕ໑ ⩥ᰍʭḡ ᔍᬊࡹŁ ᯩ݅.

ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮡᖅĥ༊⢽֥ࠥ᮹℉ࢱ᜽eᩩᔢƱ☖పᮥ᮹ၙ

⦹໑, ࠥಽʑ⦹Ǎ᳑ᖅĥ᮹ʑᵡᯕࡹ۵Ʊ☖పᮝಽᔍᬊࡹŁᯩ݅.

ฯᮡ₉ಽᙹෝ⦥᫵ಽ⦹íࡽ݅. ᯕ⃹ౝᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᱢᱶʑᵡ ᅕ݅׳íᔑᱶ⧁Ğᬑᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᯕ⍅ᲙእĞᱽᱢᯙࠥಽÕ ᖅᯕၽᔾ⧁ᙹᯩᮝ໑, թྕԏíᔑᱶ⧁Ğᬑฯᮡ᜽eݡᨱᕽ

ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᅕ݅ฯᮡƱ☖ప᮹ ☖⧪ᮝಽᰇᮡƱ☖⪝ᰂᮥ

ၽᔾ᜽┍ ᙹ ᯩ݅.

₉ಽᙹ᪡zᯕࠥಽ᜽ᖅ᮹Ƚ༉ᔑᱶŝᱶᨱᯩᨕᕽᖅĥ᜽eĥ ᙹ۵ ᵲ᫵⦽ ᇡᇥᮥ ݕݚ⦹Ł ᯩ݅. əౝᨱࠥ ᇩǍ⦹Ł ʑ᳕᮹

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹॅᮡᝅᱽə⇵ᱶŝᱶᯕᱶᖒᱢᯕŁ᮹ၙaᇩ⪶ᝅ

⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ᯝťᱢᯙᱢᬊᮝಽḡᩎᯕӹיᖁ᮹✚ᖒᮡŁಅࡹḡ

ᦫᦹ݅. ŝÑ᪡۵ ݍญ ᯱഭ(Ʊ☖ప ॒)᮹ Ǎाᯕ ᬊᯕ⦽ ḡɩ, ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ᪡šಉ⦹ᩍᩍ్ᩑǍaḥ⧪ࡹᨕ᪅Łᯩḡอ⩥ᝅ ᱢᯙ ၹᩢᮡ ၙၙ⦽ ᝅᱶᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍ۵⩥ᰍʭḡŁᙹࡹŁᯩ۵30ჩṙᙽ᭥aŝᩑ᪔ᮡ

äᯙaᨱݡ⦽᮹ྙᨱᕽ᜽᯲⦹໑, ᯕುᱢɝÑᨱၵ┶ᮥࢵᖅĥ᜽

eĥᙹࠥ⇽ᮥ☖⧕⧊ญᱢᯙᖅĥaa܆⦹ࠥಾ8,760᜽eᙽ᭥ł ᖁᨱᕽ݉ᙽᖁ⩶⫭ȡ(Simple Linear Regression)ෝ⪽ᬊ⦽ᄡł ᱱ(knee) ┱ᔪʑჶᮥᱽᦩ⦹ᩡ݅. əญŁ∊ℎǭᯝၹǎࠥෝݡᔢ ᮝಽᅙᩑǍᨱᕽᱽᦩ⦽ႊჶುᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᇥᕾݡᔢḡᱱ᮹ᖅĥ

᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ʑ᳕ḡ⋉ᨱᕽᱽ᜽ࡽԕᬊŝእƱ⦹ᩡ

݅. Fig. 1ŝ zᯕ ∊ℎǭ ᯝၹǎࠥ 49} ᔢ᜽᳑ᔍḡᱱᨱ ݡ⦽

2009 ֥ Ʊ☖ప ᯱഭෝ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.

2. šಉྙ⨭ၰᯕುᱢŁₑ

2.1 ֝ٛ૤ւߛ஺ಅ

2.1.1 ֝૤ডծਏԩծ৤ୡ૳஺ಅ

ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ŝᱶᮡᯝၹᱢᮝಽⴗƱ☖పᙽᩕ᯲

ᖒ, ⴘᙽ᭥łᖁ᯲ᖒ, ⴙĥᙹ⇵ᱶ᮹ᱩ₉ෝ঑ෙ݅. ၙǎ᮹Highway Capacity Manual(HCM) (2000) ᨱ۵ᝅྕᨱᕽᔍᬊa܆⦹ࠥಾ

Table 1ŝzᯕ5}ಽǍᇥࡽ☁ḡᯕᬊ✚ᖒᄥᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹa

ᱽŖࡹŁᯩ݅. ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮡ30~100ჩṙᔍᯕ᮹Ʊ☖పᮥ

ᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ0.091~0.100᮹ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹෝᱽ᜽⦹Łᯩᮝ໑, ⧕ݚ ḡᩎ᮹ᯱഭෝɝÑಽ❱݉⧁ᙹᯩࠥಾḡ⋉ᮥษಉ⧕ࢱŁᯩ݅.

⦽⠙ၙǎAASHTO᮹A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets (2004) ᨱ۵Ʊ᫙eᖁࠥಽ᮹☖ĥᯱഭಽᇡ

░ࠥ⇽⦽ᙽ᭥ə௹⥥ෝ☖⧕↽ᱢ᮹ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᮡᱥℕᵲ

30 ჩṙƱ☖పᮝಽ, ᯕ۵ADT᮹15% ᙹᵡᯕ௝Ł໦᜽ࡹᨕᯩ݅.

AASHTO᮹ʑᵡᮡ↽Ⅹ1965֥ᨱᱽ᜽ࡽᯕ௹ಽ⩥ᰍʭḡࠥ

Table 1. Related Guidelines and Studies for Design Hourly Factor Estimation

Case Study Area 8,760th Curve 1,000th Curve 100th Curve

Notes

Rank K(%) Rank K(%) Rank K(%)

1

Rules about the Road Structure and Facilities Standards, Ministry of Construction and Transportation

- Urban

30 812 - - - - -

- Rural 12 18 - - - - -

2

Statistical Yearbook Related to Construction and Transportation, Ministry of Construction and Transportation

Highway -

30 7 8.5 - - - - -

Freeway - 8 15 - - - - -

3

Korea Highway Capacity Manual, Ministry of Construction and Transportation Urban

30

9(7 10) - - - - -

Rural 15(12 18) - - - - -

Highway Urban 9(711) - - - - -

Rural 15(12 18) - - - - -

4

Guideline for Highway Feasibility Studies and Schematic Design, Korea Expressway Corporation

Highway -

30 6 18 - - - - -

Freeway - 9.1 15.7 - - - - -

5

Highway Capacity Manual (TRB)

- Urbanized

30

ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹ͸ͷʹȀǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͸ǤʹͶʹ͹ ǤǤǤ

ੲনతȵౖ׆சȵ׌ऀ଀

Ahn, Seongchae, Choi, Keechoo, Kim, Boowon

áᔪᨕ ᖅĥ᜽eĥᙹ, ᖅĥ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥, ᜽eƱ☖పᙽ᭥łᖁ, ᄡłᱱ┱ᔪʑჶ, ݉ᙽᖁ⩶⫭ȡ

İࣀėॡ