연구 11-02
북한 급변사태와 한국의 대응전략 -정치･외교･군사 분야-
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북한 급변사태와 한국의 대응전략
1판1쇄 인쇄/ 2011년 1월 24일 1판1쇄 발행/ 2011년 1월 28일
발행처/ 한국경제연구원 발행인/ 김영용 편집인/ 김영용 등록번호 / 제318-1982-000003호
(150-705) 서울특별시 영등포구 여의도동 27-3 하나대투증권빌딩 전화 3771-0001(대표), 3771-0057(직통) / 팩스 785-0270~3
http://www.keri.org
ⓒ 한국경제연구원, 2011
한국경제연구원에서 발간한 간행물은 전국 대형서점으로 구입하실 수 있습니다.
(구입문의) 3771-0057
ISBN 978-89-8031-600-7 10,000원
* 제작대행: 선우정보인쇄
발간사
역사는 반복한다. 이 평범한 말 속에 국가의 미래를 좌우할 진리 가 담겨 있다. 통일을 이루어낸 독일의 헬무트 콜(Helmut Josef Michael Kohl) 총리만큼 이 진리를 마음 깊숙이 체험한 사람도 없다. 1990년 독일은 예상 밖의 통일을 이루었다. 역사가 선물한 행운이었고, 콜 총리는 통일의 주인공이 되었다.
그러나 기쁨도 잠깐 콜 총리는 엄청난 후유증을 겪게 되었다. 실 업이 늘고 동독인의 서독 이주는 끊이지 않았다. 통일기금을 적립하 고 단결세를 도입했어도 재정은 늘 부족했다. 사회주의적 비효율의 뿌리를 자르고 동독을 재건하기가 만만치 않았다. 자유를 유보당하 고 감시체제하에 익숙한 행동을 바로잡기도 어려웠다. 만성적인 적 자 경제를 만들어 낸 ‘무임승차’ 관행도 좀처럼 고쳐지지 않았다.
통일 피로증이라고 할까, 국민의 불만이 극에 달했다. 콜 총리는
“과거 역사상 독일과 같은 통일의 전례가 있었다면 많은 시행착오를 반복하지 않았을 겁니다”라며 국민에게 진심어린 이해를 구했다. 국 민들은 이런 콜 총리의 호소를 수용했고 통일 후 두 차례나 총리직 을 위임했다. 역대 최장수 총리가 탄생한 순간이었다. 우리에게 콜 총리의 이런 호소는 더 이상 유효하지 않다. 급변사태와 통일, 이 역 사적 사건의 현장을 우리는 이미 20년 동안 보아오고 있기 때문이다.
북한이 불안하다. 김정은 체제가 정착하리라고 보는 전문가들도 거의 없다. 북한의 급변사태를 시사하고 있고, 우리는 이를 통일로 이끌어야 할 역사적 사명이 있다.
2010년 말 외교안보연구실을 신설한 한국경제연구원은 이러한 시 대적 사명을 수용하고 그 첫 번째 프로젝트로 “북한 급변사태와 한 국의 대응전략”을 선정했다. 북한에는 김정은 3대 세습과 관련해 무 리한 조치들이 이어지고 있다. 2009년 11월 화폐개혁은 막 움트기 시작한 시장의 싹을 송두리째 잘라버렸다. 작년에는 천안함과 연평 도에서 무력도발을 일으켰다. 그런가 하면 미국의 핵 전문가 해커 박 사를 초청해 농축 우라늄 시설을 공개하는 장면도 연출했다. 정상적 인 국가로는 상상할 수 없는 일련의 사건들이다. 권력 암투, 군부 소 요 등 언제 급변사태가 일어날지 장담할 수 없다.
본 보고서는 이런 시대적 요구에 대한 최소한의 응답이다. 완성된 시나리오에는 못 미치지만 기본 틀을 만들고자 최선을 다했다. 이를 토대로 깊이 있는 연구들이 수행되어 유사시 통일을 이루고 효율적 인 북한경제 재건에 박차를 가할 것을 기대한다.
“대한민국은 통일을 지향하며, 자유민주적 기본질서에 입각한 평 화적 통일정책을 수립하고 이를 추진한다”는 헌법 제4조의 정신이야 말로 본 보고서의 배경임을 다시 한 번 밝힌다.
2011년 1월 한국경제연구원 원장 김영용
목 차
요 약 / 9
제1장 서 론 / 15
1. 연구의 목적 및 필요성········································································ 17
(1) 연구의 전제 ······················································································· 17
(2) 연구의 주제 ······················································································· 20
(3) 기존 연구와의 차이점 ······································································· 20
2. 21세기 대북관 및 통일관··································································· 22
(1) 통일의 역사성 ···················································································· 22
(2) 통일의 현재성 ···················································································· 29
3. 한반도 문제의 국제정치적 역학도구··············································· 32
(1) 동북아시아와 한반도 ········································································· 32
(2) 천안함 사건 이후의 동북아 ······························································ 33
제2장 북한 급변사태 / 41 (1) 북한 내부 상황 ·················································································· 44
(2) 북한 급변사태 예상 시나리오: 기존 연구 ······································· 65
(3) 군사적 측면 ······················································································· 74
(4) 중국변수: 군사개입상황 ···································································· 88
(5) 북한 안정화 방안 ············································································ 100
제3장 대주변국 외교전략 / 125
1. 분단과 통일의 국제정치적 조건····················································· 127
(1) 한반도 통일의 국제적 변수 ···························································· 128
(2) 한반도에 대한 주변 강대국의 인식 ················································ 130
(3) 한반도와 미국: 한미동맹관계 ························································· 133
2. 미국과 북한 급변사태········································································ 139
(1) 통일을 향한 한미공조 ····································································· 139
(2) 미국의 대전략과 북한 ····································································· 142
(3) 북한 급변사태와 미국의 국익 ························································· 145
(4) 미국의 대 중국 인식과 전략 ·························································· 147
(5) 미국, 중국 그리고 한국의 통일정책 ··············································· 150
3. 중국과 북한 급변사태········································································ 155
(1) 중국의 한반도 전략 ········································································· 155
(2) 중국의 한반도 인식 ········································································· 156
(3) 중국의 국가이익과 딜레마 ······························································ 158
(4) 중국과 대한민국의 통일전략 ·························································· 163
4. 기타 주변국·························································································· 166
(1) 러시아 ······························································································ 166
(2) 일본 ·································································································· 167
5. 대한민국 통일외교전략······································································ 169
(1) 한반도 통일의 변수 ········································································· 169
(2) 통일을 위한 대한민국의 국제전략 ················································· 170
제4장 독일통일의 교훈과 한반도에 대한 시사점 / 171
1. 상황의 대반전······················································································ 173
2. 통일외교································································································ 176
(1) 대미외교 ··························································································· 176
(2) 대소외교 ··························································································· 180
(3) 대헝가리 외교 ·················································································· 181
(4) 기타 주변국 외교: 영국･프랑스･폴란드 ········································ 183
3. 동독 급변사태······················································································ 186
(1) 동독 내부 정치상황 ········································································· 187
(2) 대외상황: 동서독 외교전쟁과 헝가리 국경 개방 ·························· 191
4. 콜 정부의 동독 안정화 방안··························································· 192
(1) 독일 이주자 대책 ············································································ 192
(2) 1989년 무혈혁명과 급변사태 ························································· 209
5. 우리에게 주는 시사점········································································ 221
제5장 통일이행기(급변사태-통일) / 223 1. 북한 내 민주정권 창출 대책··························································· 226
2. 북한재건을 위한 토대 구축방안····················································· 229
(1) 화폐통합 ··························································································· 229
(2) 인민재산의 사유화 ··········································································· 234
제6장 결 론 / 237
영문초록 / 243
