* ᵲᇡݡ⦺Ʊ ݡ⦺ᬱ ☁༊Ŗ⦺ŝ ၶᔍŝᱶ ([email protected])
**** ᵲᇡݡ⦺Ʊ ݡ⦺ᬱ ☁༊Ŗ⦺ŝ ᕾᔍŝᱶ ([email protected]) Received May 23, 2013/ revised July 3, 2013/ accepted July 10, 2013
Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0)
ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹͷʹȀ ǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵ǤͷǤͳͺͳ
Ǥ ǤǤ
ᢢ⭏㬚#Ꮾ㲂≾㰒#⢚ᙖὪ⯢⯾#Ꮾ㲂ᤶ⮎#ⴖ㬚#ᙦ㬚⽾⮫#↶ᵖᆾℂⴖ#
㰓Ḟ#ⷂᾛ
ࢮ࣐থ ȵଲசෝ ȵఢச ȵୋ
Park, Beom-Seop*, Lee, Joo-Heon**, Kim, Chang-Joo***, Jang, Ho-Won****
Projection of Future Drought of Korea Based on Probabilistic Approach Using Multi-model and Multi Climate Change Scenarios
ABSTRACT
In this study, spatio-temporal distribution of future drought in South Korea was predicted by using the meteorological data generated from GCMs on which a variety of climate changing scenarios are applied. Drought phenomena was quantitatively analyzed using SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index). In addition, potential drought hazard maps for different drought duration and return period were made for the South Koreaby drought frequency analysis after deriving SDF(Severity-Duration-Frequency) curves using the 54 weather stations throughout the country. From the potential drought hazard maps, drought is expected to be severer in Nakdong River basin and Seomjin River basin under A2 scenario. It was also predicted that drought would be severe in the Han River basin by RCP8.5 scenario. In the future, potential drought hazard area would be expanded until the Eastern part of Nakdong River basin as compared with that of past under A2 scenario condition. Research results indicated that future drought would be extensively occurred all areas of South Korea not limiting in the southern part of country.
Key words : Climate change, SPI, Drought, SDF curve, Potential drought hazard map
Ⅹಾ
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵݅᧲⦽ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦽GCMᮝಽᇡ░ᔾᔑࡽʑᔢᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍԉ⦽ḡᩎၙ௹aྥ᮹Ŗeᱢᯙᇥ⡍ෝᱥ
⦹ᩡ݅. aྥᮥᱶపᱢᮝಽᇥᕾ⦹ʑ᭥⦹ᩍSPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)ෝaྥḡᙹಽᯕᬊ⦹ᩡᮝ໑aྥኩࠥ⧕ᕾᮥ☖⦹ᩍ54 }ʑᔢš⊂ᗭᄥSDF(Severity-Duration-Fraquency) łᖁᮥᮁࠥ⦹ᩍԉ⦽ḡᩎ᮹ḡᗮʑeᄥ, ᰍ⩥ʑeᄥaྥᬑᝍḡᩎᮥḡࠥ⪵⦹ᩡ݅.
aྥᬑᝍࠥᨱ᮹⦽ၙ௹aྥᱥđŝ, Ӻ࠺v, ᖍḥvᮁᩎᯕŝÑ᪡࠺ᯝ⦹í݅ෙᮁᩎᨱእ⦹ᩍaྥᯕᝍ⪵ࢁäᮝಽᱥࡹᨩᮝ໑⦽v
ᮁᩎᩎaྥᯕᝍ⪵ࢁäᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ၙ௹᮹ĞᬑA2 ӹญ᪅ᨱᕽ۵ŝÑᨱእ⧕Ӻ࠺v࠺⧕ᮁᩎᨱࠥaྥᯕᝍ⪵ࡹ۵ḡᩎᯕ⪶ᰆࡹ
۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅ᨱᕽ۵ᵲᇡḡᩎᨱ᭥⊹⦽⦽vᮁᩎ᮹aྥᯕᝍ⪵ࢁäᮝಽᩩ⊂ࡹᨩ݅. ᩑǍđŝෝ☖⧕ၙ௹aྥ
ᮡŝÑ᪡zᯕԉᇡḡႊᨱǎ⦽ࡹḡᦫŁ⦽ၹࠥᱥᩎᨱÙℱŲჵ᭥⦹íӹ┡ԁäᮝಽᱥࡹᨩŁʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ᄥ, ʑ⬥༉ߙᄥಽ݅ᗭ ᮹ᱥ₉ᯕෝӹ┡ԕᨩ݅.
áᔪᨕ ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵, SPI, aྥ, SDF łᖁ, aྥᬑᝍࠥ
սėॡ
Table 1. Time Slices and Corresponding Period for Used Data
ID of time slice Period Used Data S0 (Observed) 19762010 Historical Observed Data
S1 20112040
Projected Data based on A2 & RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario S2 20412070
S3 20712099
1. ᕽು
aྥᮡ↽ɝॅᨕᯙඹᨱíaᰆⓑ⦝⧕ෝᵝŁᯩ۵ᯱᩑᰍ⧕
ᵲ᮹⦹ӹಽᕽ, ᪅ʑe࠺ᦩ᮹vᙹᇡ᳒ᨱ᮹⦽ʑᔢ⦺ᱢaྥŝ
⧉̹ aྥᨱᱢᱩ⯩ ݡእ⦹ḡ ༜⦹۵እ⬉ᮉᱢᯙ ྜྷ šญ॒᮹
݅᧲⦽ᯕᮁಽๅ֥⦽ၹࠥŔŔᨱᕽⓍŁ᯲ᮡaྥ⦝⧕aၽᔾ⦹
Łᯩ݅. aྥ᮹Ğᬑḥ⧪ᗮࠥa۱ญŁə⦝⧕ෝᱶపᱢᮝಽ
❭ᦦ⦹ʑ⯹ुᨕಅᬡᮥwŁᯩᮭᨱࠥᇩǍ⦹Ł↽ɝḡǍ᪉ӽ⪵
⩥ᔢᨱ ᮹⦽ḡǍ᮹ ᩑ⠪Ɂʑ᪉ ᔢŝ฿ྜྷಅ ə ⦝⧕۵ᬒ
᷾a⦹Łᯩ۵ᝅᱶᯕ݅. aྥᨱ᮹⦽⦝⧕ෝ↽ᗭ⪵⦹ʑ᭥⦹ᩍ
aྥŝšಉࡽᩑǍa↽ɝḡᗮᱢᮝಽ᷾a⦹Łᯩ۵ᝅᱶᯕ໑
aྥ⦝⧕᮹ᝍbᖒᮥᯙ⦹Ł݅᧲⦽ᇥᕾʑჶᮥ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩍᩑǍ a ḥ⧪⦹Ł ᯩ݅(Lee et al. 2012a., Lee et al. 2012b).
aྥŝšಉࡽᩑǍᇥᵲᨱᕽၙ௹aྥᮥᱥ⦹ʑ᭥⦽ႊჶᮝ ಽ۵ ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ ӹญ᪅ෝ ᱢᬊ⦽ GCM(General Circulation Model)ᮥ☖⧕ᔾᔑࡽvᙹၰʑ᪉, ᮁ⇽ప॒᮹ᙹྙᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹
۵ӹญ᪅ʑၹ᮹ᰆʑaྥᱥᯕᵝෝᯕŁᯩ݅. ੱ۵vᙹ
ၰʑ᪉॒᮹ᬱʑᔢᯱഭෝaŖ⦹ᩍᔑᱶࡽSPI(Standardized Precipitation Index) ၰPDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index)
॒᮹aྥḡᙹෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍaྥᮥᱶప⪵⦹۵ᇥᕾᯕᝅࡹŁᯩ݅.
aྥḡᙹෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍaྥᮥᱶపᱢᮝಽ༉ܩ░ย⦹۵ᩑǍ᮹
Ğᬑ, Kim and Lee(2011)۵ ⦽ၹࠥ ᱥǎ 69} ʑᔢš⊂ᗭ᮹
vᙹၰʑ᪉ᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᔑᱶ⦽ʑ⬥ᄡᙹ᪡b᳦aྥḡᙹෝ
ᩍ, ᔑᱶࡽaྥḡᙹaᝅᱽaྥᮥษӹ⢽⩥⦹۵ḡෝ⠪a⦹
ᩍaྥḡᙹ᮹ᱢᬊᖒᮥá☁⦹ᩡŁ݅᧲⦽ḡᗮʑeᮥwŁᯩ۵
SPI ᮹ ⬉ᮉᖒᮥ ᯦᷾⧩݅.
⦽⠙, ၙ௹᮹aྥᱥŝšಉࡽᩑǍ۵ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ᨱ
ʑၹᮝಽaྥ᮹ᵝʑᖒၰĞ⨆ᖒ, ၽᔾኩ॒ࠥŝzᮡaྥ᮹
☖ĥ⦺ᱢ✚ᖒᮥᇥᕾ⦹۵ӹญ᪅ʑၹ᮹ᩑǍ᪡ੱ⦽⪶ᱶುᱢ
༉⩶ၰᵲᰆʑʑᔢᩩ⊂ᯱഭෝ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩍၙ௹aྥᮥᝅeᮝಽ
ᩩ⊂⦹۵ እӹญ᪅ ʑၹ᮹ ᩑǍᇥಽ Ǎᇥ⧁ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
Lee and Kim(2011) ᮡaྥኩࠥ⧕ᕾᮥ☖⧕᯲ᖒࡽᵝʑᔢ š⊂ᗭᄥaྥᝍࠥ-ḡᗮʑe-ᔾʑኩࠥ(Severity-Duration-Frequency, SDF) łᖁᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ⦽ၹࠥ᮹ḡᩎᄥᰍ⩥ʑeᄥaྥᝍࠥෝ
ᇥᕾ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ŝÑᨱၽᔾ⧩ᵝaྥᔍᔢ᮹ᰍ⩥ʑeᮥᱶప ᱢᮝಽᱽ⦹ᩡ݅. Kim et al(2013)ᮡSDF łᖁᮥᯕᬊ⦽aྥᬑ ᝍࠥෝ᯲ᖒ⦹ᩍ⦽ၹࠥŝÑaྥ᮹Ŗeᱢᇥ⡍ෝ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡᮝ໑
A2 ӹญ᪅ᨱ᮹⧕ӹ┡ԁaྥᬑᝍḡᩎ᮹ᄡ⪵ෝᱥ⦹ᩡ݅.
ə đŝ, ၙ௹ᨱ۵ ŝÑ ᵝ aྥᬑᝍḡᩎᮝಽ ⠪aࡽ Ӻ࠺v
ᮁᩎᨱᕽaྥᯕᬒⓍíᝍ⪵ࡹᨩᮝ໑ᵲᇡḡႊᨱ᭥⊹⦽⦽v
ᮁᩎᮝಽࠥaྥᯕ⪶ᰆࢁäᮝಽᱥࡹᨩ݅. Khadr and Schlenkhoff
(2012) ۵ࠦᯝRuhrvᮁᩎᮥݡᔢᮝಽSPIෝᯕᬊ⦽aྥᩩ⊂ᮥ
☖⧕ ☖ĥᱢ ⪶ශ ༉ߙ᮹ ᱶ⪶ᖒᮥ á᷾⦹ᩡ݅.
ӹญ᪅ʑၹ᮹aྥᱥᩑǍಽ۵, Blenkinsop and Fowler (2007)۵ᩍ్ʑ⬥༉ߙᮥᔍᬊ⦹ᩍʑ⬥ᄡ⪵᮹ᇩ⪶ᝅᨱݡ⦽
á᷾ᮥ ☖⧕ ᩢǎ᮹ ၙ௹ aྥᮥ ⠪a⦹ᩡ݅. ੱ⦽ Jung and Chang(2011)ᮡၙǎWillamettevᮁᩎᮥݡᔢᮝಽA1B, B1
ӹญ᪅ෝʑၹᮝಽ⦹ᩍ݉ʑaྥ᮹ᵝʑᖒᮥᇥᕾ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ݡᔢᮁᩎᨱݡ⦽݉ʑaྥ≉᧞ḡᩎᮥḡࠥ⪵(mapping) ⦹ᩍ
ӹ┡ԕᨩ݅. Lee et al.(2012b)ᮡSPI᪡PDSIෝ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩍ⦽ၹࠥ
aྥ᮹Ğ⨆ᖒ, ᵝʑᖒၰၽᔾኩࠥᇥᕾᮥ☖⧕aྥᮥ☖ĥ⦺ᱢᮝ ಽᇥᕾ⦹ᩡᮥᐱอᦥܩ, ᇥᕾđŝෝʑၹᮝಽ⦹ᩍ⦽ၹࠥ
ḡᩎԕ ɚᝍ⦽ aྥᨱ ݡ⧕ ≉᧞⦽ ḡᩎᮥ ᱽ⦹ᩡ݅.
Loukas et al.(2007) ᮡ əญᜅ Thessaly ḡᩎᨱ ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ಽ
ᯙ⦽aྥᝍࠥ᮹ᄡ⪵ෝ⠪a⦹Łᯱݡᔢᮁᩎᨱ᭥⊹⦽50}š⊂
ᗭ᮹vᬑᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ, SPIḡᙹᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔑᱶࡽSPIḡᙹ
ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ, A2, B1ӹญ᪅ᨱݡ⦽Thessalyḡᩎ᮹ၙ௹aྥᮥ
ᱶపᱢᮝಽ ᱥ⦹ᩡ݅.
↽ɝᨱḥ⧪ࡽʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ෝᯕᬊ⦽ၙ௹aྥ᮹ᱥŝ
šಉࡽݡᇡᇥ᮹ᩑǍ۵IPCC 4₉⠪aᅕŁᕽᨱᕽᱽࡹᨩ
SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario)᮹ A2, B1 ၰ
A1B ॒᮹ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦽ᩑǍᨱǎ⦽ࡹᨕᯩ݅. ᕽ, ᅙ
ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ʑ᳕4₉⠪aᕽᨱᱽࡽA2 ӹญ᪅ᐱอᦥܩ
IPCC 5 ₉ ⠪aᅕŁᕽᨱ ᔩí ᱽࡽ RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 8.5 ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦹ᩡᮝ໑ԉ⦽ḡᩎ
ᱥℕᨱݡ⦽ၙ௹aྥ᮹⪶ශುᱢၽᔾ✚ᖒᮥᇥᕾ⦹ᩍၙ௹ᨱ
aྥᯕ≉᧞⦽ḡᩎᮥᰍ⩥ʑeᄥ, aྥḡᗮʑeᄥಽ⇵ᱶࡽaྥ
ᬑᝍࠥෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ⠪a⦹ᩡ݅. ੱ⦽ࢱaḡ᮹ᕽಽ݅ෙ႑⇽ӹ ญ᪅ᨱ᮹⦽aྥᱥđŝaŖeᱢ, eᱢᮝಽᨕਜí݅í
ӹ┡ӹ۵ḡෝ ᱶపᱢᮝಽ ᇥᕾ⦹ᩍ ᅕᦹ݅.
2. ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ၰGCMs
2.1 ंজ׆ԩ
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵aྥᮥᱶపᱢᮝಽ⠪a⦹ʑ᭥⦽ႊჶᮝಽaྥ
ḡᙹෝ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, aྥḡᙹᔑᱶᮥ᭥⧕ŝÑš⊂ᯱഭၰၙ௹
Table 2. Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) in the year 2100
Radiation Force COequivalent concentration(ppm) Rate of change in radiative forcing Comparison with SRES(ppm)
RCP8.5 8.5 W/m2 1350 Rising A2(830) GA1FI(970)
RCP6 6 W/m2 850 Stabilizing B2(600) GA1B(720)
RCP4.5 4.5 W/m2 650 Stabilizing B1(550)
RCP2.6 2.6 W/m2 450 Declining -
Table 3. Summary of Climate Models Used in this Study
Climate Change Scenario GCM(Ageney: Version) Country Resolution(km)
Atmosphere Ocean
AR4
CNRM: CM3 France 128×64 180×170
CSIRO: MK3 Australia 192×96 192×189
CONS: ECHO-G Germany/Korea 96×48 128×117
UKMO: HADCM3 UK 96×73 288×144
AR5 HadGEM3-RA UK
ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦽GCMsᮥ☖⧕ᔾᔑࡽvᙹᯱഭෝ
ᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. ᩑǍݡᔢʑeᮡŝÑᨱᕽᇡ░ၙ௹ʭḡ4݉ĥಽǍᇥ
ࡹᨩᮝ໑ŝÑ᮹Ğᬑ1976~2010֥, ၙ௹᮹Ğᬑ2011~2099֥ᮝ ಽ 30֥ ݉᭥᮹ 3} ʑeᮝಽ ӹ٥ᨕ ᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅(Table 1)
2.2 ׆บ࣡ฃਏيࠤૈ
2.2.1 SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario)
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ⪽ᬊ⦹۵ℌჩṙʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ಽ۵IPCC 4 ₉⠪aᅕŁᕽᨱᕽᱽࡽSRESಽᕽ᪉ᝅaᜅ႑⇽పᨱ
ⓑ✡ᨱᕽA1, A2, B1, B2 ӹญ᪅ಽӹ٥ᨕḥ݅. A1 ӹญ᪅ (CO
2: 675ppm) ۵ Ł ⬉ᮉ⪵ ʑᚁᯕ ɪᗮ⯩ ᯦ࠥࡹ۵ Łᖒᰆ
ᔍ⫭ӹญ᪅ෝั⦹໑A2 ӹญ᪅(CO
2: 830ppm) ᮡĞᱽᖒᰆ
ᮡԏŁ⪹Ğᨱݡ⦽šᝍࠥaᱢᮡ݅ᬱ⪵ᔍ⫭ӹญ᪅ෝั⦽݅.
B1 ӹญ᪅(CO
2: 550ppm)۵ḡᩎeĊ₉aᱢᮡḡᗮၽᱥ⩶
ᔍ⫭ӹญ᪅ෝB2 ӹญ᪅(CO
2: 600ppm) ۵B1ŝA1ᅕ݅
᪥อ⦹ḡอᅕ݅Ųჵ᭥⦽ʑᚁᄡ⪵aᯝᨕӹ۵ḡᩎŖ᳕⩶ᔍ⫭
ӹญ᪅ෝ ั⦽݅.
2.2.2 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways)
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ⪽ᬊ⦹۵ࢱჩṙӹญ᪅۵RCP ӹญ᪅ಽᕽ
SRES ӹญ᪅(1990֥ݡัǍ⇶) ᯱഭ᮹י⬥⪵ၰ⧕ᔢࠥྙᱽ
ෝᅕ᪥⦹Łᱶ⪶ࠥ⨆ᔢၰ݅᧲⦽ᇡྙᨱᯕᬊ⧁ᙹᯩ۵ᔩಽᬕ
ӹญ᪅᯦ࠥ᮹⦥ᖒᯕᱽʑࢉᨱ}ၽḥ⧪ࡹᨩ݅. IPCC 5₉⠪aᅕŁᕽ(AR5)ෝ☖⧕ᔩíᖁᱶࡽ4}RCPӹญ᪅۵
Table 2 ᪡z݅. ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽᔍᬊ⦹Łᯱ⦹۵RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅۵
⩥ᰍ⇵ᖙಽ᪉ᝅaᜅa႑⇽ࡹ۵ĞᬑಽᕽSRES A2 ӹญ᪅ᨱ
ݡ᮲⦽݅.
2.3 GCMs
GCMᮡbǎ᮹ʑᔢšಉᱶᇡʑǍၰᩑǍʑšᨱ݅᧲⦽
༉ߙᯕᱽࡹŁᯩᮝ໑, ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅᮹Ğᬑ
HadGEM3-RA ༉ߙᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩡŁ, SRES A2 ӹญ᪅᮹Ğᬑ
CNRM:CM3, CSIRO:MK3, CONS:ECHOG, UKMO:HADCM
॒ 4}᮹ ༉ߙᮥ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅(Table 3).
☖ĥᱢᔢᖙ⪵۵ᩩ⊂ᄡᙹ᮹GCMđŝ᪡š⊂ᯱഭᔍᯕ᮹☖ĥ ᱢ šĥෝ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ ʑ⬥༉ߙ đŝ᮹ ⠙᮹ෝ ᅕᱶ⦹۵ ʑჶᮥ
ั⦽݅. ᅙᩑǍ᮹A2 ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦽GCM᮹Ğᬑᱥᯕ⧉ᙹෝ
ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍŖeᱢᮝಽᔢᖙ⪵⦹Łᯝʑᔢၽᔾʑෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍeᱢ ᮝಽ ᔢᖙ⪵ ⦹۵ ᳑⧊ʑჶᮥ ᖁ┾⦹ᩡ݅(Bae et al, 2011).
RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅ෝ ᱢᬊ⦽ GCM᮹ Ğᬑ ᱥḡǍ ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵
ᩩ⊂༉⩶ᯙHadGEM2-AOᨱvᱽ᯦ಆᯱഭಽᕽRCP ӹญ᪅
ෝ᯦ࠥ⦹ᩍၙ௹ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ෝ༉᮹⦹ᩡᮝ໑༉᮹ࡽᱥḡ Ǎʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅ෝḡᩎʑ⬥༉ߙᯙHadGEM3-RA༉⩶᮹
᯦ಆᯱഭಽ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩍᩎ⦺ᱢᔢᖙ⪵ෝ☖⧕ᱥḡǍ༉⩶ᯕ⢽⩥⧁
ᙹ ᨧ۵ ᅖᰂ⦽ ḡ⩶᮹ ⬉ŝෝ ၹᩢ⍽ᵝ۵ ḡᩎʑ⬥ᄡ⪵
ӹญ᪅ᯙ RCM ᯱഭෝ ᔑ⇽⦹í ࡽ݅(So et al., 2012).
2.4 GCM ଭැॺܤ׆ঃୀ߹ଭՑஹ
ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᨱෙᙹྙ⪹Ğ᮹ᄡ⪵ෝᱥ⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᕽ۵᪉ᝅa ᜅ႑⇽ӹญ᪅ෝᖁᱶ⦹Ł, ᖁᱶࡽӹญ᪅ෝʑၹᮝಽ⦽ʑ⬥
༉ߙᮥ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ ʑ᪉, vᙹ ॒ŝ zᮡ ʑ⬥ᯱഭෝ ᱥ⦹۵ߑ
ᯕŝᱶᨱᕽᩍ్aḡᇩ⪶ᝅᖒᯕၽᔾ⦹íࡽ݅(Maurer, 2007).
ᕽ, GCMᮥ☖⧕ᔾᔑࡽᙹྙᯱഭ᮹á᯲᷾ᨦᯕ⦥⦹໑, ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵aྥḡᙹᖁᱶᨱᔍᬊࡹ۵vᙹᯱഭ᮹ᝁᖒá᷾
ᮥ᭥⧕⦽v, Ӻ࠺v, ɩv, ᩢᔑvᮁᩎ᮹ݡ⢽š⊂ᗭᯙᕽᬙ,
month month
(a) Seoul (b) Daegu
month month
(c) Daejeon (d) Gwangju
Fig. 1. Comparisons Between Observed(KMA) and Simulated(A2, RCP Scenario Based GCMs) Monthly Precipitation for the Baseline Period (19762010)
ݡǍ, ݡᱥ, Ųᵝš⊂ᗭෝ ݡᔢᮝಽ ŝÑ š⊂ᯱഭa ᳕ᰍ⦹۵
ʑᵡʑe(1976~2010֥, Baseline period)ᨱ ݡ⧕ š⊂ᯱഭ᪡
GCMᨱ᮹⦽༉᮹ᯱഭෝᬵᄥಽእƱ⦹ᩡ݅. Fig. 1ᮡʑᵡʑe (1976~2010 ֥)ᮥݡᔢᮝಽᬵvᙹపᮥእƱ⦽đŝಽᕽ, š⊂ᯱ
ഭ᪡༉᮹ᯱഭ᮹ᩑ⠪Ɂ vᙹపᮡᮁᔍ⦹íӹ┡ԍḡอᩍ℁
vᙹపᮡš⊂ᯱഭ᪡༉᮹ࡽᯱഭaᔢݚ⦽₉ᯕෝӹ┡ԕŁᯩ݅.
ᕽᬙš⊂ᗭ᮹ĞᬑRCP8.5 ӹญ᪅᮹8ᬵvᙹపᯕš⊂ᯱഭ ᨱእ⧕87.75mm ׳íӹ┡ԍ݅. ੱ⦽, ݡǍš⊂ᗭ᮹Ğᬑᨱࠥ
RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅۵š⊂ᯱഭ᪡ᮁᔍ⦹íӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, A2 ӹญ ᪅᮹7~8ᬵ༉᮹ᯱഭࠥbb147.12mm, 120.62mmಽᕽš⊂ᯱ
ഭᨱ እ⧕ ׳í ӹ┡ԍ݅. ݡᱥŝ Ųᵝš⊂ᗭ ᩎ š⊂ᯱഭᨱ
እ⧕ 7~8ᬵ vᙹపᯕ ׳í ӹ┡ԍ݅.
ʑᵡʑe(baseline period)ᨱݡ⦽š⊂ᯱഭ᪡GCM ༉᮹ᯱഭ
ෝá☁⦽đŝ, GCMᨱ᮹⦽ᩍ℁(6ᬵ~8ᬵ) vᙹపᨱ₉ᯕa
Ⓧíၽᔾ⦹ᩡᮝ໑ᯕ۵┽⣮ŝzᮡᯕᔢ⊹aʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ӹญ᪅
ᨱ ᱢᱩ⯩ ၹᩢࡹḡ ༜⦽ ᯕᮁa ⦹ӹ᮹ ᬱᯙ ᯝᙹࠥ ᯩ݅.
⦹ḡอaྥᯕᵝಽၽᔾ⦹۵ĉᬙŝᅥ℁᮹vᙹపᮡš⊂⊹᪡
༉᮹⊹aᩍ℁ᨱእ⧕ᕽᔢݡᱢᮝಽᯝ⊹⦹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ
݅. ᕽGCMᨱ᮹⧕ᔾᔑࡽʑᔢᯱഭ۵⪮ᙹᅕ݅aྥᩑǍᨱ
⪽ᬊ⦹۵ߑ ᬒ ᮁญ⦽ äᮝಽ ⠪aࡹᨩ݅.
Figs. 2 and 3 ᮡŝÑݡእၙ௹ᩑ⠪Ɂvᙹప᮹ĥᱩᄥᄡ⪵ෝ
ᇥᕾ⦽ đŝಽᕽ ŝÑ ݡእ ၙ௹ S1~S3ʑe᮹ ĥᱩᄥ vᙹప
ᄡ⪵పᮥ ᵲǭᩎ ݉᭥ಽ ӹ┡ԕᨩ݅. Table 4۵ ⦽v, Ӻ࠺v, ɩv, ᖍḥv, ᩢᔑvᮁᩎᨱݡ⦽ĥᱩᄥvᙹపŝᄡ⪵పᮥӹ┡ԕ Ł ᯩ݅.
ŝÑʑe᮹š⊂vᙹపᮥᇥᕾ⦽đŝ, ĥᱩᄥvᙹప᮹Ğᬑ
ᅥ℁(3,4,5ᬵ) ᧞ 240mm, ᩍ℁(6,7,8ᬵ) ᧞ 740mm, aᮥ℁
(9,10,11ᬵ) ᧞250mm, ĉᬙ℁(12,1,2ᬵ) ᧞100mmಽᩍ℁
vᙹపᯕ┡ĥᱩᨱእ⧕׳íӹ┡ԍ݅. ᮁᩎᄥvᙹప᮹Ğᬑ
ᵲᇡḡႊᨱ᭥⊹⦽⦽v, Ӻ࠺v, ɩvᮁᩎᨱእ⧕ᖍḥv, ᩢᔑv
Season S1 (20112040) S2 (20412070) S3 (20712099)
(a) Spring
(b) Summer
(c) Autumn
(d) Winter
percentage change (%)
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Fig. 2. Spatial Variation of Seasonal Precipitation Between Observed(1976-2010) and Projected (4 GCMs Averaged S1, S2, S3 Period) Data Based on A2 Scenario
Season S1 (20112040) S2 (20412070) S3 (20712099)
(a) Spring
(b) Summer
(c) Autumn
(d) Winter
percentage change (%)
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Fig. 3. Spatial Variation of Seasonal Precipitation Between Observed(1976-2010) and HadGEM3-RA Projected (S1, S2, S3 Period) Data Based on RCP 8.5 Scenario
Table 4. Spatial Variation of Seasonal Precipitation Between Observed(1976-2010) and Projected(2011-2100, S1, S2, S3) Data Based on Different Scenario
Scenario Season Basin (River)
Observed
Precipitation Projected Precipitation
Ave. diff.
mm S1 S2 S3 (%)
mm Diff.(%) mm Diff.(%) mm Diff.(%)
A2 (4 GCMs Averaged)
Spring
Han 219.22 229.64 4.76 221.87 1.21 228.38 4.18 3.38 Nakdong 227.39 236.88 4.18 230.63 1.43 231.47 1.80 2.47 Geum 215.90 228.60 5.88 220.80 2.27 223.42 3.48 3.88 Sumjin 267.93 270.13 0.82 263.56 -1.63 263.91 -1.50 -0.77 Yeongsan 263.59 261.36 -0.85 255.74 -2.98 256.41 -2.73 -2.18
Summer
Han 776.43 836.71 7.76 879.37 13.26 851.75 9.70 10.24 Nakdong 679.49 716.77 5.49 737.89 8.59 739.76 8.87 7.65
Geum 720.85 793.31 10.05 829.10 15.02 812.93 12.77 12.61 Sumjin 771.61 864.63 12.05 885.45 14.75 893.92 15.85 14.22 Yeongsan 743.29 820.59 10.40 836.22 12.50 845.98 13.82 12.24
Autumn
Han 267.89 232.93 -13.05 236.55 -11.70 261.59 -2.35 -9.03 Nakdong 228.95 209.04 -8.69 212.55 -7.16 233.97 2.19 -4.55
Geum 234.70 208.74 -11.06 210.92 -10.13 231.08 -1.54 -7.58 Sumjin 257.75 227.79 -11.62 229.39 -11.00 252.47 -2.05 -8.23 Yeongsan 247.56 228.41 -7.74 231.30 -6.57 252.84 2.13 -4.06
Winter
Han 82.96 88.99 7.27 83.42 0.55 90.62 9.24 5.69 Nakdong 78.31 90.89 16.07 84.79 8.28 91.13 16.37 13.57 Geum 92.02 101.17 9.95 93.84 1.98 100.99 9.75 7.22 Sumjin 109.51 119.27 8.91 109.73 0.20 116.70 6.57 5.23 Yeongsan 114.87 126.47 10.09 117.46 2.25 124.26 8.17 6.84
RCP8.5
Spring
Han 219.22 256.22 16.88 258.18 17.77 299.02 36.41 23.69 Nakdong 227.39 281.70 23.88 295.02 29.74 332.49 46.22 33.28 Geum 215.90 266.02 23.21 299.26 38.61 320.17 48.29 36.70 Sumjin 267.93 329.81 23.10 345.16 28.82 407.67 52.16 34.69 Yeongsan 263.59 313.20 18.82 332.75 26.24 396.17 50.30 31.78
Summer
Han 776.43 772.10 -0.56 960.50 23.71 806.35 3.85 9.00 Nakdong 679.49 711.89 4.77 878.32 29.26 752.36 10.72 14.92 Geum 720.85 797.07 10.57 915.43 26.99 780.04 8.21 15.26 Sumjin 771.61 793.88 2.89 1065.95 38.15 957.71 24.12 21.72 Yeongsan 743.29 758.16 2.00 1001.51 34.74 923.15 24.20 20.31
Autumn
Han 267.89 259.25 -3.23 340.11 26.96 275.50 2.84 8.86 Nakdong 228.95 216.42 -5.47 277.95 21.40 235.35 2.80 6.24 Geum 234.70 223.90 -4.60 304.04 29.55 263.32 12.20 12.38 Sumjin 257.75 253.48 -1.66 307.88 19.45 290.41 12.67 10.15 Yeongsan 247.56 240.62 -2.80 286.04 15.55 288.50 16.54 9.76
Winter
Han 82.96 94.27 13.64 128.44 54.82 174.26 110.06 59.51 Nakdong 78.31 81.66 4.28 114.52 46.24 159.07 103.13 51.22 Geum 92.02 93.77 1.90 134.95 46.65 184.13 100.10 49.55 Sumjin 109.51 116.64 6.51 150.40 37.33 211.19 92.85 45.56 Yeongsan 114.87 121.49 5.76 148.91 29.63 207.79 80.89 38.76
ᮁᩎ᮹vᙹపᯕ׳íӹ┡ԍ݅. ✚⯩, ⦽vᮁᩎ᮹Ğᬑᩍŝ
aᮥ℁ vᙹపᯕ ┡ ᮁᩎᨱ እ⧕ ׳í ӹ┡ԍ݅.
A2 ӹญ᪅ෝᯕᬊ⦽ᇥᕾđŝ, ᅥ, ᩍ, ĉᬙ℁vᙹపᮡ
᷾a⦹ᩡḡอaᮥ℁vᙹపᮡqᗭ⦹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᮁᩎᄥ ಽ ᔕ⠕ᅕ໕ ŝÑᨱ እ⦹ᩍ ⦽v 9.03%, Ӻ࠺v 4.55%, ɩv
7.58%, ᖍḥv8.23%, ᩢᔑvᮁᩎᮡ4.06% qᗭ⦹۵äᮝಽ
ӹ┡ԍ݅.
RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅ෝᯕᬊ⦽ᇥᕾđŝ, ŝÑᨱእ⦹ᩍၙ௹ᨱ۵
༉ुĥᱩ᮹vᙹపᯕ᷾a⦹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᅥ℁vᙹప᮹
Ğᬑ᧞32%, ĉᬙ℁vᙹప᮹Ğᬑ᧞50% ŝÑᨱእ⧕Ⓧí
Table 5. Drought Severity Classification by SPI
SPI Range Moisture
Condition SPI Range Moisture Condition More than 2.00 Extremely Wet -1.00 G-1.49 Moderately Dry
1.50 G1.99 Very Wet -1.50 G-1.99 Severely Dry 1.00 G1.49 Moderately Wet Less than -2.00 Extremely Dry -0.99 G0.99 Near Normal
Fig. 4. Process for Derivation of SDF Curve and Potential Drought Hazard Map Using Drought Frequency Analysis
᷾a⦹Łᯩᮝ໑ᩍ℁vᙹప᮹Ğᬑ᧞15%, aᮥ℁vᙹప᮹
Ğᬑ ᧞ 10% ŝÑᨱ እ⧕ ݅ᗭ ᷾a⦹ᩡ݅.
A2 ၰRCP8.5 ӹญ᪅ෝ☖⧕ᔾᔑࡽvᙹపᯱഭෝá☁⦽
đŝ, ḡᩎᄥಽ ₉ᯕ۵ ᯩḡอ ᩍŝ aᮥ℁ vᙹపᮡ ŝÑᨱ
እ⧕ ⓑ ᷾q⇵ᖙෝ ӹ┡ԕḡ ᦫᦹḡอ ᅥŝ, ĉᬙ℁ vᙹపᮡ
ŝÑᨱ እ⧕ Ⓧí ᷾a⦹۵ äᮝಽ ᱥࡹŁ ᯩ݅.
3. aྥḡᙹၰaྥᬑᝍ᯲ࠥᖒ
3.1 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽaྥᮥᱶపᱢᮝಽᇥᕾ⦹ʑ᭥⦹ᩍݡ⢽ᱢᯙaྥ
ḡᙹᯙ SPIෝ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. SPI۵ vᙹపอᮥ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ aྥ᮹
ᝍࠥෝ ⇵ᱶ⧁ ᙹ ᯩ۵ aྥḡᙹಽᕽ ḡᙹᔑᱶᮥ ᭥⦽ vᙹ᮹
ĥᔑe݉᭥ෝ1}ᬵᇡ░3, 6, 12, 24}ᬵ॒ŝzᯕᯱᮁí
ᖅᱶ⦹Ł, e݉᭥ᄥಽvᙹᇡ᳒పᮥᔑᱶ⦹ᩍ݉ʑaྥၰᰆʑ aྥᮥ࠺ᨱ⠪a⧁ᙹᯩ۵ᰆᱱᯕᯩ݅. Mckee ॒(1993)ᮡ
SPI ಽᇡ░ᨕḡ۵aྥᝍࠥෝᱶ᮹⦹ʑ᭥⧕Table 5᪡zᮡ
SPI aྥ ᇥඹෝ ᱽ⦹ᩡ݅.
SPI ෝᔑᱶ⦹ʑ᭥⦹ᩍ ʑᔢℎᔑ⦹54}š⊂ᗭ᮹ŝÑʑᔢℎ
š⊂ᯱഭ(1976~2010֥) ၰGCMᨱ᮹⦽ၙ௹ᱥᯱഭ(2011~
2099 ֥)ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩡŁ, ḡᗮʑe6}ᬵ᮹vᙹᯱഭෝ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩍ
ᔑᱶ⦽ SPI(6)ᮥ ᩑǍᨱ ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.
3.2 ԧࢇਕܑ(Potential Drought Hazard Map) ୁন ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᨱ ෙ aྥᬑᝍḡᩎ(Potential Drought Hazard Area)᮹Ŗeᇥ⡍ෝ⇵ᱶ⦹ʑ᭥⧕aྥኩࠥ⧕ᕾᮥ☖⦽aྥᬑᝍ
ࠥ(Potential Drought Hazard Map)ᮥ ᯲ᖒ⦹ᩡᮝ໑ Fig. 4᪡
zᮡᱩ₉ᨱ᮹⧕ᙹ⧪ࡹᨩ݅. ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ}ၽ⦹Łᯱ⦹۵aྥᬑ ᝍࠥaྥᯕၽᔾ⧁ᙹᯩ۵ᰁᰍ᭥⨹ࠥෝ⠪a⧉ᨱᯩᨕྜྷŖɪ
܆ಆၰᙹᯱᬱŖɪᖅᮥŁಅ⦽⠪aaᦥܭ, ᯝᱶʑe࠺ᦩ᮹
vᙹᇡ᳒ᯕၽᔾ⦹ᩍྜྷᇡ᳒ᮥᮁၽ⧁a܆ᖒᯕᯩ۵ʑᔢ⦺ᱢ
aྥᨱ᮹⦽ ᰁᰍ ⦝⧕a܆ḡᩎᮥ ⇵ᱶ⦹۵ߑ ə༊ᱢᮥ ࢱŁ
ᯩ݅. ᷪ, aྥ᮹ၹݡ}ֱᯙ⪮ᙹ᮹šᱱᨱᕽᅝভ, ⪶ශvᬑపࠥ
᪡ zᮡ }ֱᮥ ᔾb⧁ ᙹ ᯩᮝ໑ ᙹྙ⦺ᱢ aྥ ੱ۵ ᨦᱢ
aྥ⦝⧕ḡᩎᯕᦥܭvᙹᇡ᳒ᨱ᮹⦽ʑᔢ⦺ᱢaྥᯕኩჩ⦹í
ၽᔾ⦹ᩍᰁᰍaྥ⦝⧕a܆ᖒᯕⓑḡᩎᮥ᮹ၙ⦹íࡽ݅.(Lee
Period Period
(a) Seoul (b) Daegu
Period Period
(c) Daejeon (d) Gwangju
Fig. 5. Comparison of the Drought Severity Between the Observed(Black Dashed Line, KMA) and GCMs-projected(S1, S2, S3) SDF Relationship (200 years Return Period, 6 months Duration) at 4 Different Weather Stations
et al., 2012b)
ԉ⦽᮹aྥᬑᝍḡᩎᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ʑ᭥⦹ᩍʑᔢℎᔑ⦹54}ʑᔢ š⊂ᗭ᮹vᙹᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᬵ݉᭥SPI(6)ෝᔑᱶ⦹Łᔑᱶࡽ
SPI(6)ෝ ḡᗮʑe 1~12}ᬵʭḡ ᩑᗮࡽ ↽ݡaྥᝍࠥෝ w۵
ĥᩕಽᰍǍᖒ⦽݅. ၙ௹᮹ĞᬑŝÑ᮹ᯱഭʑಾᩑᙹ᪡እ⦽
30֥݉᭥(S1:2011~2040֥, S2:2041~2070֥, S3:2071~2099
֥)᮹3}ʑeᮝಽǍᇥ⦹ᩍǍᖒࡽĥᩕᮥၵ┶ᮝಽᄥࠥ᮹
ኩࠥ⧕ᕾᮥᝅ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕ᪡zᮡŝᱶᮝಽ☖⦹ᩍŝÑᯱഭ᪡᮹
~šᱢᯙ እƱa a܆⦹ࠥಾ ⦹ᩡ݅.
ࢱჩṙಽ, ኩࠥ⧕ᕾᮥ᭥⦽↽ᱢ⪶ශᇥ⡍⩶ᮥᖁᱶ⦹íࡹ໑, Gamma, GEV(General Extreme Value), Gumbel, Log-Gumbel,
Lognormal, Log-Pearson type ⳓ, Normal, Pearson type ⳓ, Weibull, Wakeby ᇥ⡍⩶ ॒᮹ ⪶ශᇥ⡍⩶ᮥ ݡᔢᮝಽ ᱢ⧊ࠥ
áᱶᮥᝅ⦹ᩡŁKolmogorov-Smirnovෝᯕᬊ⦽ᱢ⧊ࠥáᱶ (ᮁ᮹ᙹᵡ5%)ᮥᝅ⦹ᩡ݅. əđŝaᰆ׳ᮡᙽ᭥᮹ᱢ⧊ᖒᮥ
ӹ┡ԙGEV(General Extreme Value) ᇥ⡍⩶ᮥaྥኩࠥ⧕ᕾᮥ
᭥⦽ ↽ᱢ⪶ශ ᇥ⡍⩶ᮝಽ ᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.
ᖙჩṙಽḡᗮʑeᄥᰍ⩥ʑeᄥኩࠥ⧕ᕾᮥ☖⧕SDF(Severity- Duration-Frequency) łᖁᮥᮁࠥ⦽⬥54}ʑᔢš⊂ᗭᄥಽᔑ ᱶࡽsᮥᩎÑญaᵲჶ(IDW, Inverse Distance Weight)ᮥᯕᬊ
⦹ᩍ Ŗeᇥ⡍ෝ ᝅ⦹ᩡ݅.
ษḡสᮝಽ ԉ⦽ḡᩎ ᱥℕᨱ ݡ⧕ᕽ Ŗeᇥ⡍ࡽ aྥᝍࠥෝ
Table 6. Comparison of the Drought Severity Between the Observed (1976-2010) and GCM-projected(S1, S2, S3) SDF Relationship (200 years Return Period, 6 months Duration) at 4 Different Weather Stations
Gauge Observed
Severity GCMs S1 S2 S3 Ave. Diff.
Severity Diff.(%) Severity Diff.(%) Severity Diff.(%) (%)
Seoul -1.72 A2-4GCMs Averaged -2.31 -34.13 -2.04 -18.60 -1.82 -5.68 -19.47 RCP8.5-HadGEM3_RA -2.24 -29.94 -2.27 -31.76 -1.50 12.61 -16.36
Daegu -2.44 A2-4GCMs Averaged -2.30 5.81 -2.35 3.93 -2.12 13.48 7.74 RCP8.5-HadGEM3_RA -3.31 -35.33 -1.65 32.52 -1.74 28.74 8.65
Daejeon -2.42 A2-4GCMs Averaged -2.29 5.35 -2.26 6.91 -2.28 5.77 6.01 RCP8.5-HadGEM3_RA -2.46 -1.36 -1.82 24.79 -3.46 -43.00 -6.53
Gwangju -2.21 A2-4GCMs Averaged -2.03 7.94 -2.28 -3.41 -1.92 12.99 5.84 RCP8.5-HadGEM3_RA -3.22 -45.79 -1.43 35.28 -1.89 14.59 1.36 * Observed Severity(19762010), S1(20112040), S2(20412070), S3(20712099)
** Difference(%) : Percentage change in drought severity between past(S0) and future period(S1, S2, S3)
ᵲǭᩎ݉᭥ಽ⢽⇽⦹ᩍ↽᳦ᱢᮝಽᵲǭᩎᄥaྥᬑᝍࠥෝ᯲ᖒ
⦹ᩡ݅.
3.3. SDF(Severity-Duration-Frequency) մটଭକܑ
Fig. 5 ۵ š⊂ᯱഭ᪡ A2 ӹญ᪅ෝ ᱢᬊ⦽ 4} GCMŝ
RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦽HadGEM3-RA ༉ߙᮥ☖⧕᯲ᖒࡽ
ᕽᬙ, ݡǍ, ݡᱥ, Ųᵝš⊂ᗭ᮹SDF łᖁᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᰍ⩥ʑe
200֥, ḡᗮʑe6}ᬵ᮹aྥᝍࠥෝእƱ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, Table 6ŝ
zᯕ SDFłᖁᮥ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ ᰍ⩥ʑe 200֥, ḡᗮʑe 6}ᬵ᮹
aྥᝍࠥෝ š⊂ᗭᄥ, ʑeᄥಽ እƱ⦹ᩍ ӹ┡ԕᨩ݅.
ᕽᬙš⊂ᗭ᮹ĞᬑS1(2011~2040֥) ʑeᨱᕽ۵A2(-2.31, 34.13%)᪡RCP8.5(-2.24, 29.94%) ӹญ᪅ᨱᕽŝÑ(-1.72)ᨱ
እ⧕aྥᯕᝍ⪵ࡹ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. S2(2041~2070֥) ʑeᨱ ᕽ۵A2(-2.04, 18.60%), RCP8.5(-2.27, 31.76%) ӹญ᪅༉ࢱ
aྥᯕᝍ⪵ࡹᨩᮝ໑S3(2071~2099֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵RCP8.5(-1.50, 12.61%) ӹญ᪅ෝᱽ⦽A2(-1.82, 5.68%) ӹญ᪅aaྥᯕ
ᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ݅. ŝÑݡእၙ௹S1~S3 ʑe᮹⠪Ɂaྥᝍࠥ᮹᷾qప
ᮥ á☁⦽ đŝ, ࢱ ӹญ᪅ ༉ࢱ ŝÑᨱ እ⧕ bb 19.47%, 16.36% aྥᯕ ᝍ⪵ࡹ۵ äᮝಽ ᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅.
ݡǍ š⊂ᗭ᮹ Ğᬑ S1(2011~2040֥) ʑeᨱᕽ۵ RCP8.5 (-3.31, 35.33%) ෝᱽ⦽A2(-2.30, 5.81%), ӹญ᪅aŝÑ
(-2.44)ᨱእ⧕aྥᯕ᪥⪵ࡹᨩŁ, S2(2041~2070֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵
༉ुӹญ᪅ᨱᕽaྥᯕ᪥⪵ࡹᨩᮝ໑, ษ₍aḡಽS3(2071~
2099֥)ʑeᨱᕽࠥ༉ुӹญ᪅ᨱᕽaྥᯕ᪥⪵ࡹᨩ݅. ⠪Ɂa
ྥᝍࠥ᮹ ᷾qపᮥá☁⦽ đŝ ࢱӹญ᪅ ༉ࢱ ŝÑᨱእ⧕
bb 7.74%, 8.65% aྥᯕ ᪥⪵ࡹ۵ äᮝಽ ᱥࡹᨩ݅.
ݡᱥš⊂ᗭ᮹ĞᬑS1(2011~2040֥) ʑeᨱᕽ۵RCP8.5(-2.46, 1.36%)ෝᱽ⦽A2(-2.29, 5.35%) ӹญ᪅aŝÑ(-2.42)ᨱ
እ⧕aྥᯕ᪥⪵ࡹᨩ݅. S2(2041~2070֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵A2(-2.26, 6.91%), RCP8.5(-1.82, 24.79%) ༉ुӹญ᪅ᨱᕽᝍ⪵ࡹᨩᮝ ໑, S3(2071~2099֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵RCP8.5(-3.46, 43.00%)ෝᱽ
⦽A2(-2.28, 5.77%) ᨱᕽaྥᯕ᪥⪵ࡹᨩ݅. ⠪Ɂaྥᝍࠥ᮹
᷾qపᮥá☁⦽đŝ, RCP8.5 ӹญ᪅᮹Ğᬑ6.53% aྥᯕ
ᝍ⪵ࡹᨩᮝ໑ A2ӹญ᪅ ᨱᕽ۵ 6.01% aྥᯕ ᪥⪵ࡹᨩ݅.
Ųᵝš⊂ᗭ᮹ĞᬑS1(2011~2040֥) ʑeᨱᕽRCP8.5(-3.22, 45.73%)ෝᱽ⦽A2(-2.03, 7.94%) ŝÑ(-2.21)ᨱእ⧕aྥᯕ
᪥⪵ࡹᨩ݅. S2(2041~2070֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵A2(-2.28, 3.41%)ෝ
ᱽ⦽RCP8.5(-1.43, 35.28%) aྥᯕ᪥⪵ࡹᨩ݅. S1~S3 ʑe ᮹⠪Ɂaྥᝍࠥ᮹᷾qపᮥá☁⦽đŝࢱӹญ᪅༉ࢱŝÑᨱ
እ⧕bb 5.84%, 1.36% aྥᯕ ᪥⪵ࡹ۵äᮝಽ ᱥࡹᨩ݅.
4. aྥ᮹Ŗeᱢᇥ⡍✚ᖒᄡ⪵
4.1 A2 ਏيࠤૈ׆ࢱଭԧࢇਕܑ
Fig. 6 ᮡA2 ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦽4}GCMᮥ☖⧕᯲ᖒࡽaྥᬑ ᝍࠥෝӹ┡ԕŁᯩ݅. ᯲ᖒࡽaྥᬑᝍࠥ۵ᰍ⩥ʑe200֥, ḡᗮʑ e6}ᬵᨱ⧕ݚ⦹໑ŝÑ᪡ၙ௹(S1~S3)ಽǍᇥ⦹ᩍӹ┡ԕᨩ݅.
š⊂ᯱഭᨱ ᮹⦽ aྥᬑᝍࠥෝ ᯲ᖒ⦽ đŝ, ŝÑ ⦽ၹࠥ۵
ԉᇡḡႊᯙᩢᔑvၰӺ࠺vᮁᩎᨱᕽᝍ⦽aྥŝɚᝍ⦽aྥᯕ
ᯱᵝӹ┡ԍäᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᵲᇡḡႊᨱ᭥⊹⦽⦽v, ⦽v
࠺⧕·ᕽ⧕, ᔞƱᮁᩎᨱᕽaྥᝍࠥa(-2.0)ᯕᔢᯙᝍ⦽aྥᮝ ಽӹ┡ӽၹ໕Ӻ࠺v, Ӻ࠺v࠺⧕, ᩢᔑvᮁᩎᨱᕽ۵aྥᝍࠥa
(-2.0) ᯕ⦹᮹ɚᝍ⦽aྥᮥӹ┡ԕᨩ݅. ✚⯩, ᖍḥvŝอĞ·࠺ḥ v ᮁᩎᨱᕽ۵ (-2.4)ᯕ⦹ಽ ๅᬑ ɚᝍ⦽ aྥᝍࠥa ӹ┡ԍ݅.
A2 ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦽4}GCMᮥ☖⧕᯲ᖒࡽၙ௹᮹aྥᬑ
ᝍḡᩎᮡ ݅ᮭŝ zᯕ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
Observed CNRM:CM3 - S1 CNRM:CM3 - S2 CNRM:CM3 - S3
CSIRO:MK3 - S1 CSIRO:MK3 - S2 CSIRO:MK3 - S3
CONS:ECHOG-S1 CONS:ECHOG-S2 CONS:ECHOG-S3
UKMO:HADCM-S1 UKMO:HADCM-S3 UKMO:HADCM-S3
Severity
-3.30 -3.05 -2.80 -2.55 -2.30 -2.05 -1.80 -1.55 -1.30
Fig. 6. Projected Change in Potential Drought Hazard area Between Observed (1976-2010) and Projected Period (S1, S2, S3) by 4 GCMs (A2 Scenario, Return Period: 200 years, Duration: 6 months)
Observed (19762010)
Potential Drought Hazard Map by 4GCMs Averaged (AR4 - A2 scenario) S1 (20112040) S2 (20412070) S3 (20712099)
Potential Drought Hazard Map by HadGEM3-RA (AR5 - RCP8.5 scenario) S1 (20112040) S2 (20412070) S3 (20712099)
Severity
-2.60 -2.48 -2.36 -2.24 -2.12 -2.00 -1.88 -1.76 -1.64
Fig. 7. Projected Change in Potential Drought Hazard area Between Observed (1976-2010) and GCMs Derived Period (S1, S2, S3) Based on A2 and RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenario (Return Period: 200 years, Duration: 6 months)
CNRM:CM3 ༉ߙᮥᯕᬊ⦽aྥᬑᝍ᯲ࠥᖒđŝ, S1(2011~
2040֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵ ┽⪵v(-2.09, 4.47%), ⫭·ᙹᩢv(-2.15, 15.68%) ᮁᩎᨱᕽ ŝÑᨱ እ⧕ aྥᯕ ᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ݅. S2(2041~
2070֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵Ӻ࠺v, Ӻ࠺v࠺⧕, ɩv, อĞ·࠺ḥv, ᖍḥ vᮁᩎᮥᱽ⦽ᱥᮁᩎᨱᕽaྥᯕᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ۵ߑ⦽v(-2.46, 36.55%), ᦩᖒ(-2.60, 43.06%), ⦽vᕽ⧕(-2.51, 56.61%), ⦽v
࠺⧕(-2.63, 36.59%), ⫭·ᙹᩢv(-2.47, 32.90%), ᔞƱ(-2.49, 28.43%) ᮁᩎᨱᕽaྥᯕⓍíᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ݅. S3(2071~2099֥)ʑ eᨱᕽ۵ ┽⪵v(-2.22, 11.37%), ⫭·ᙹᩢv(-2.31, 23.90%)
ᮁᩎᨱᕽ aྥᯕ ᝍ⪵ࡹ۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
CSIRO:MK3 ༉ߙᮥᯕᬊ⦽aྥᬑᝍ᯲ࠥᖒđŝ, S1(2011~
2040֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵ ᖍḥv ᮁᩎᮥ ᱽ⦽ ᱥ ᮁᩎᨱᕽ ŝÑᨱ
እ⧕ aྥᯕ ᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ۵ߑ ⦽v(-2.59, 43.75%), ᦩᖒ(-2.62, 43.80%), ⦽vᕽ⧕(-2.54, 58.79%), ┽⪵v(-2.82, 41.20%), ⫭
·ᙹᩢv(-2.90, 55.72%) ᮁᩎᨱᕽ aྥᯕ Ⓧí ᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ݅.
S2(2041~2070֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵┽⪵v(-2.45, 22.63%), ⫭·ᙹᩢ
v(-2.58, 38.70%), Ӻ࠺vԉ⧕(-2.82, 28.42%) ᮁᩎᨱᕽaྥᯕ
Ⓧí ᝍ⪵ࡹᨩᮝ໑ S3(2071~2099֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵ ⫭·ᙹᩢv (-2.00, 7.18%) ᮁᩎᮥᱽ⦽ᱥᮁᩎᨱᕽŝÑᨱእ⧕aྥᯕ
᪥⪵ࡹ۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
CONS:ECHOG༉ߙᮥ ᯕᬊ⦽ aྥᬑᝍࠥ ᯲ᖒđŝ, S1(2011~
2040 ֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵⦽v(-2.32, 28.77%), ᦩᖒ(-2.33, 28.05%), ⦽ vᕽ⧕(-2.25, 49.90%), ⫭·ᙹᩢv(-2.28, 22.48%) ᮁᩎᨱᕽŝÑᨱ
እ⧕aྥᯕᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ݅. S2(2041~2070֥) ၰS3(2071~ 2099֥)ʑ eᨱᕽ۵ᱥᮁᩎᨱᕽŝÑᨱእ⧕aྥᯕᝍ⪵ࡹ۵ߑS2(2041~2070
֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵ᦩᖒ(-2.76, 51.66%), ⦽vᕽ⧕(-2.61 63.27%), ┽⪵
v(-3.16, 57.96%), ⫭·ᙹᩢv(-3.39, 81.93%), Ӻ࠺v ࠺⧕(-3.58, 63.12%), ᔞƱ(-2.94, 51.81%) ᮁᩎ, S3(2071~ 2099֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵
⦽v(-2.59, 43.86%), ⦽vᕽ⧕(-47.73, 47.73%), ⦽v࠺⧕(-2.69, 39.90%), ࠺v࠺⧕(-2.61, 39.95%) ᮁᩎᨱᕽaྥᯕⓍíᝍ⪵ࡹᨩ݅.
CONS:ECHOG ༉ߙᮥᯕᬊ⦽aྥᬑᝍ᯲ࠥᖒđŝ┡GCMᨱእ⧕
aྥᯕ aᰆ ɚᝍ⦹í ӹ┡ӹ۵ äᮝಽ ᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅.
UKMO:HADCM ༉ߙᮥ ᯕᬊ⦽ aྥᬑᝍࠥ ᯲ᖒđŝ, S1
(2011~2040 ֥)ʑeᨱᕽ۵┽⪵v(-3.02, 51.21%), ⫭·ᙹᩢv
Table 7. Percentage Changes of Drought Severity for 20 Large Basins of Korea Between Observed and GCM Derived PDHM (A2 & RCP8.5 Scenario, Return Period: 200 years, Duration: 6 months)
Scenario Basin name Observed Severity
S1 S2 S3 Ave. Diff.
Severity Diff.(%) Severity Diff.(%) Severity Diff.(%) (%)
A2
Han river -1.80 -2.17 -20.74 -2.13 -18.35 -1.86 -3.49 -14.19 Anseong stream -1.82 -2.16 -18.70 -2.21 -21.52 -1.76 3.08 -12.38 West of han river -1.60 -2.09 -30.39 -2.15 -34.45 -1.88 -17.65 -27.50 East of han river -1.93 -1.98 -2.57 -2.23 -15.70 -2.08 -8.27 -8.85 Nakdong river -2.29 -2.27 0.59 -2.30 -0.77 -2.18 4.81 1.54 Hyeongsan river -2.27 -2.38 -5.06 -2.33 -2.81 -2.40 -5.65 -4.51 Taehwa river -2.00 -2.55 -27.52 -2.51 -25.70 -2.48 -24.02 -25.75 Hoeya, Sooyeong -1.86 -2.61 -40.07 -2.60 -39.64 -2.52 -35.23 -38.31 East of nakdong river -2.29 -2.28 0.69 -2.26 1.44 -2.39 -4.19 -0.69 South of nakdong river -2.20 -2.53 -15.04 -2.68 -21.80 -2.30 -4.80 -13.88
Geum river -2.19 -2.25 -2.71 -2.23 -1.95 -2.09 4.61 -0.02 Sapgyo stream -1.94 -2.21 -14.13 -2.27 -17.25 -1.80 7.01 -8.12 West of geum river -1.97 -2.22 -12.90 -2.28 -16.12 -1.77 10.10 -6.31 Mangyeong, Dongjin -2.37 -2.19 7.61 -2.24 5.13 -2.04 13.95 8.90
Sumjin river -2.43 -2.15 11.50 -2.35 3.25 -1.95 19.87 11.54 South of sumjin river -2.25 -2.20 2.32 -2.49 -10.78 -1.93 13.90 1.81
Yeongsan river -2.25 -2.12 6.02 -2.34 -3.78 -1.89 16.00 6.08 Tamjin river -2.28 -2.17 4.91 -2.41 -5.38 -1.81 20.99 6.84 South of yeongsan river -2.14 -2.14 -0.18 -2.39 -12.02 -1.81 15.24 1.01 West of yeongsan river -2.23 -2.14 4.01 -2.32 -4.18 -1.90 14.56 4.80
RCP 8.5
Han river -1.80 -2.25 -25.09 -1.81 -0.46 -2.24 -24.35 -16.63 Anseong stream -1.82 -2.23 -22.54 -1.81 0.25 -2.10 -15.56 -12.62 West of han river -1.60 -2.45 -53.35 -2.14 -33.65 -1.89 -17.85 -34.95
East of han river -1.93 -2.28 -18.62 -1.74 9.74 -2.15 -11.88 -6.92 Nakdong river -2.29 -2.72 -18.80 -1.72 24.93 -1.81 20.97 9.03 Hyeongsan river -2.27 -3.35 -47.82 -1.77 21.90 -1.63 28.12 0.73 Taehwa river -2.00 -2.97 -48.80 -1.80 10.06 -1.70 15.03 -7.90 Hoeya, Sooyeong -1.86 -2.94 -57.73 -1.85 0.81 -1.80 3.26 -17.88 East of nakdong river -2.29 -2.77 -20.95 -1.60 30.19 -1.71 25.56 11.60 South of nakdong river -2.20 -2.82 -28.47 -1.83 16.82 -1.60 27.10 5.15
Geum river -2.19 -2.34 -6.99 -1.79 18.37 -2.43 -11.01 0.12 Sapgyo stream -1.94 -2.14 -10.43 -1.78 8.05 -2.26 -16.39 -6.26 West of geum river -1.97 -2.03 -3.45 -1.86 5.25 -2.08 -5.55 -1.25 Mangyeong, Dongjin -2.37 -2.63 -10.98 -1.96 17.15 -2.05 13.48 6.55
Sumjin river -2.43 -3.07 -26.51 -1.72 29.23 -1.89 22.17 8.30 South of sumjin river -2.25 -2.86 -27.06 -1.68 25.14 -1.75 21.91 6.66 Yeongsan river -2.25 -2.90 -28.82 -1.64 27.25 -1.80 20.22 6.22 Tamjin river -2.28 -2.62 -14.88 -1.47 35.65 -1.71 24.96 15.24 South of yeongsan river -2.14 -2.41 -12.65 -1.76 17.50 -1.38 35.48 13.44 West of yeongsan river -2.23 -2.64 -18.57 -1.81 18.75 -1.73 22.31 7.50 * Observed Severity(19762010), S1(20112040yr), S2(20412070yr), S3(20712099yr)
** Difference(%) : Percentage change in drought severity between past(S0) and future period(S1, S2, S3)
