Fall 2018
Seoul National University-The University of Tokyo 459.570A(002)
EIFFEL: Energy Initiative for Future Engineer Leaders
Energy consumption in the non-OECD countries began to exceed OECD consumption in 2007 and is projected to reach ~2/3 of the 739 quadrillion Btu global energy consumption in 2040.
The world’s energy consumption through 2040 increases for all fuels.
Higher economic growth drives increasing energy consumption, while services or manufacturing pathways to growth modulate that
consumption.
Per capita energy consumption in India and Africa remain low despite high economic growth.
There is a need to further explore the relationship between high
economic growth, relative sizes of the services and manufacturing
266 473
0 100 200 300 400 500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD
OECD IEO2018 Reference case
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Projection
History
50 78
157
200 224
257
303
0 100 200 300 400 500
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Africa IEO2018 Reference case
non-OECD energy consumption by region quadrillion Btu
Asia
Middle East Americas Europe and Eurasia
History Projection
356 410
523
575 610
661
739
1.7%
0.4%
1.5%
1.6%
2.0%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
0% 2% 4% 6%
Total OECD Japan OECD Europe Canada South Korea United States Mexico/Chile Australia/New Zealand
4.1%
1.4%
1.6%
2.4%
2.5%
3.1%
3.8%
4.2%
4.5%
6.0%
0% 2% 4% 6%
Total Non-OECD Russia Brazil Other Americas Other Europe/Eurasia Middle East Africa Other Asia China India
IEO2018 Reference case
average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015~40
OECD Non-OECD
229
182 161
38 129
0 50 100 150 200 250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Projection History
petroleum and other liquids
coal
natural gas
renewables
nuclear
IEO2018 Reference case
world energy consumption by energy source
quadrillion Btu
211
237 245 255
276
181 196 206 227
259
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
industrial all other end- use sectors IEO2018 Reference case
world delivered energy consumption in the industrial and all other end-use sectors quadrillion Btu
History Projection
9% 12% 13%
51% 33%
16%
33%
42%
47%
5% 12%
15%
3% 1%
9%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
China India Africa
mining agriculture
services
manufacturing construction sector share of total gross output in 2015
percent
China: Two cases that assume GDP will grow 5.7%/year from 2015 to 2040, compared with 4.5%/year in the IEO2018 Reference case
A more rapid transition to a consumption-led economy and increased demand for services; the personal consumption share of GDP rises to 60% by 2040, compared with 50% in the IEO2018 Reference case
China continues its large industrial investment- and export-led growth; the investment share of GDP is 51% in 2040, compared with 32% in the IEO2018 Reference case
India: Three cases that assume GDP will grow about 7.1%/year from 2015 to 2040, compared with 6.0%/year in the IEO2018 Reference case
An investment-led economy with more industrial sector investment; the investment share of GDP rises from 29% in the IEO2018 Reference case in 2040 to 38%, loosely patterned after China’s recent growth
An export-led economy with more output from trade-sensitive, energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and refining; the export share of GDP increases from 23% in the IEO2018 Reference case in 2040 to 55%, loosely patterned after South Korea
A personal consumption-led economy with more output from services; the personal consumption share of GDP rises from 61% in the IEO2018 Reference case in 2040 to 67%, loosely based upon current U.S. levels of personal consumption
Africa: One case that assumes GDP will grow 5.0%/year from 2015 to 2040, compared with
3.8%/year in the IEO2018 Reference case
Chinese GDP and energy consumption
annual growth rate, five-year moving average
0%
5%
10%
15%
1983 1991 1999 2007 2015
China GDP
China total primary
energy consumption
Chinese delivered energy consumption in 2040 quadrillion Btu
85
66
80 52
44
52
0 30 60 90 120 150
No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition
all other end-use sectors
industrial
sector
17% 12% 11%
40% 39% 38%
41% 46% 48%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition
mining agriculture
services
manufacturing
construction sector share of total gross output in 2040
percent
region share of global energy-intensive sector gross output in 2040 percent
41% 35% 40%
15% 16% 16%
10% 11% 11%
7% 8% 7%
7% 7% 7%
20% 22% 20%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition
Rest of World
United States Middle East
other non-OECD Asia India
China
IEO2018 Reference case energy consumption per capita million Btu per person
2000---2015---2040 IEO2018 Reference case projection
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
GDP per capita
2010 U.S. dollars per person
Africa
Indian energy consumption in 2040 quadrillion Btu
31
40 41 43
19
23 23 23
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
IEO2018 Reference Consumption-led Investment-led Export-led
all other end-use sectors
industrial
sector
energy-intensive manufacturing gross output 2010 U.S. dollar index, selected start year = 100
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
900 China
2000–2015
India (Export-led) 2006–2040
2006 2000
2015
2040
2037
Country Services share Manufacturing share
South Africa 71% 13%
Morocco 62% 16%
Nigeria 59% 9%
Egypt 52% 13%
Algeria 44% 5%
Angola 44% 5%
sector share of total gross output in 2040 percent
18% 20%
19% 24%
47% 37%
10% 11%
7% 9%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
IEO2018 Reference Africa High Growth
mining
services
construction agriculture
manufacturing
