2007. 3. 27(火)
주 제 : 한국과 세계경제전망
-엔 캐리 트레이드 청산가능성 관련 연 사 : 임지원 박사(JP Morgan 서울지점상무)
KOREA ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE FORUM
第48回 韓經硏 포럼
A T T H E C R O S S R O A D S
Jiwon Lim
Senior Economist, JPMorgan Chase (822) 758-5509
jiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.com
CONFIDENTIALCTLYPRIVATEAND
Agenda
Page
세계경제전망
개요 1
5
한국경제와 환율전망
엔캐리거래의 기술적 요인 16
23
HECROSSROADS
Unwinding of JPY carry trading (엔캐리거래 청산과 엔달러환율 추이)
JPY against USD JPY against USD
160 러시아 채무불이행선언 + LTCM 부도
100 120 140
엔론 회계부정
?
80
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
외국인 일본주식 매수와 본국송금
G7 meeting (Dubai)
US subprime mortgage problems (서브프라임대출부실)
서브프라임 모기지 연체율 (
60일 이상 연체)
% of outstanding subprime loans; first liens, ARMs 서브프라임 모기지 연체율 (
60일 이상 연체)
% of outstanding subprime loans; first liens, ARMs
12 13
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4 5 6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
엔캐리청산과 세계경제성장
산업생산증가율, 세계평균
% change, 전년동기비 산업생산증가율, 세계평균
% change, 전년동기비
12
1998 episode
0 4 8
1998 episode
2002 episode
(8) (4)
95 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Agenda
Page
세계경제전망
개요 1
5
한국경제와 환율전망
엔캐리거래의 기술적 요인 16
23
HECROSSROADS
세계경제전망
GDP 성장율 : JPMorgan 예측치 GDP 성장율 : JPMorgan 예측치
% over a year ago % over previous period, saar
2006 2007 2008 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07
Global 3.7 3.4 3.1 4.6 3.6 2.9 4.1 2.8 3.5 3.6 3.4
U.S. 3.3 2.5 2.6 5.6 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.0
n
The growth backdrop remains healthy
n
Corporates positioned to expand; global policy supports growth; an oil drag fades
nAsia and Emerging market economies normalize
n
A divide between output and demand
U.S. 3.3 2.5 2.6 5.6 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.0
Euro 2.8 2.5 2.0 3.4 4.0 2.1 3.6 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.0
Japan 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.8 1.4 0.3 4.8 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.0
China 10.7 10.0 9.5 9.0 14.9 9.9 6.8 9.5 11.7 10.8 10.4
EMAsia (ex. China and India) 5.4 4.9 4.9 5.5 3.9 7.7 3.7 5.0 5.6 5.3 5.3
A divide between output and demand
n
Goods producers in the midst of an inventory correction
n
Final consumption is firming, setting a stage for a modest rebound in global growth
nInflation risk shifting to resource utilization
제전망
모기지 이외의 소비자 대출연체율 모기지 이외의 소비자 대출연체율
1.0% 8%
모기지 대출연체율 (30일이상 연채) 모기지 대출연체율 (30일이상 연채)
5.0 15
U.S. subprime mortgage problems more likely sectoral shock
(서브프라임부실은 국지적 문제일 가능성이 높으나… )
Percent, sa Percent, sa
Subprime
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Credit card loans
Prime auto loans 1.0
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 5 7 9 11 13 15
Prime
10
모기지 금리 모기지 금리
% p.a., weekly average
550
모기지 대출신청—purchase index 모기지 대출신청—purchase index
March 16, 1990 = 100, sa
0 2 4 6 8 10
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
30-year fixed
1-year ARM
300 350 400 450 500 550
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
전망
40
신규 주택 착공
Million units, saar, 3mma 신규 주택 착공
Million units, saar, 3mma 서브프라임 모기지: 신규 대출과 주택판매
(전년동기대비)
서브프라임 모기지: 신규 대출과 주택판매 (전년동기대비)
Gauging the impact on housing market
(미국: 서브프라임 대출 부실이 주택시장에 미치는 영향은 한동안 지속될듯)
서브프라임 모기지 신규대출
2.0 2.5
(40) (20) 0 20
2004 2005 2006
주택 구입 체감 지수 주택 구입 체감 지수
170 80
Index, Umich survey sa, NAHB
주택판매
주택 판매:
신규 vs. 기존
Million units, saar, both scales 주택 판매:
신규 vs. 기존
Million units, saar, both scales
1.25 6.9
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
110 120 130 140 150 160 170
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
30 40 50 60 70 80
Consumers
Builder
0.95 1.05 1.15
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07
6.1 6.3 6.5 Existing home sales 6.7
New home sales
제전망
70
75 55
Inventory correction broadens to manufacturing
(미국: 제조업재고조정은 마무리단계인것으로 판단됨)
제조업 재고율 (판매 대비)
%, sa
제조업 재고율 (판매 대비)
%, sa
제조업 수주 vs. 재고 – ISM survey Index, sa, 3mma for both scales 제조업 수주 vs. 재고 – ISM survey Index, sa, 3mma for both scales
Customers’ inventories 1.4
1.35 12
45 50 55 60 65 70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
35 40 45 50
재고대비 수주율 vs. 제조업 생산증가율 재고대비 수주율 vs. 제조업 생산증가율
New orders
Manufacturing IP
Sa %ch saar, 3m/3m
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
15
소비증가율, % 3m/3m, saar 소비증가율, % 3m/3m, saar
Retail sales
0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.35
2005 2006 2007
(6) (3) 0 3 6 9 Manufacturing IP 12
ISM: new orders to inventory
(5) 0 5 10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Personal consumption expenditures Retail sales
전망
Profit margins and the U.S. business cycle
(미국: 기업이윤과 경기순환)
세후 기업부문 이익
% of GNI
세후 기업부문 이익
% of GNI
가격지수를 통해본 기업이익
Ratio: Price index to unit labor costs 가격지수를 통해본 기업이익
Ratio: Price index to unit labor costs
0.08 1.05
미국 고정투자와 신규실업수당신청
% change oya and 000s sawr
미국 고정투자와 신규실업수당신청
% change oya and 000s sawr
24 250
실질 연준금리
Fed funds rate less oya core PCE inflation (%) 실질 연준금리
Fed funds rate less oya core PCE inflation (%)
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
50 53 57 61 65 68 72 76 80 83 87 91 95 98 02 06
0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05
50 53 57 61 65 68 72 76 80 83 87 91 95 98 02 06
(16) (8) 0 8 16 24
1Q84 4Q87 3Q91 2Q95 1Q99 4Q02 3Q96 250 300 350 400 450 500 고정투자
실업수당신청
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
(5) 0 5 10 15
60 62 65 67 70 72 75 77 80 82 85 87 90 92 95 97 00 02 05 4%
제전망
4 5
4 6
Headline inflation down, but demand-side pressures not fading
(미국: 인플레압력 지속)
소비자 물가, % oya
소비자 물가, % oya 단위당노동비용 (% oya)단위당노동비용 (% oya)
Headline
80 82 84 86 1 2 3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
(2) 0 2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cumulative move (bp)
Length (months)
End real rate %
2004—2006 425 24 2.6
1999—2000 175 12 4.8
연준의 금리인상 사이클 연준의 금리인상 사이클 제조업 가동율 (%, Sa)
제조업 가동율 (%, Sa)
LT average Core
72 74 76 78 80
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1999—2000 175 12 4.8
1994—1995 300 12 3.5
1988—1989 325 11 5.1
1986—1987 138 10 3.5
LT average
전망
Euro area “cyclical” uplift now well established
(Euro : 견조한 성장세 당분간 계속될 것으로 전망)
산업전망 지수
%bal, EC survey 산업전망 지수
%bal, EC survey
소비자 전망 지수
%bal, EC survey 소비자 전망 지수
%bal, EC survey
0 10
0 10
건설 전망 지수
%bal, EC survey 건설 전망 지수
%bal, EC survey
개인부분 대출 증가율
% oya
개인부분 대출 증가율
% oya
(40) (30) (20) (10) 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
(40) (30) (20) (10) 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
20 12
(60) (40) (20) 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
4 6 8 10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
제전망
4
… but still with more evidence on “structural” downshift
(Euro: 잠재성장율 하락으로 인플레 압력은 상승)
노동 생산성
전년동기대비, 1인당 국내총생산 노동 생산성
전년동기대비, 1인당 국내총생산
경제활동 인구
% oya, sum of employment and unemployment 경제활동 인구
% oya, sum of employment and unemployment
안정세 2.0
4.5
85 86 (2)
(1) 0 1 2 3
1Q82 4Q86 3Q91 2Q96 1Q01 4Q05
n Euro experiencing a solid cyclical recovery in demand
제조업 가동율과 실질 정책금리
% pts
제조업 가동율과 실질 정책금리
% pts
유럽 중앙은행 긴축기조 유지 유럽 중앙은행 긴축기조 유지
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
1Q95 1Q961Q97 1Q981Q99 1Q001Q01 1Q021Q03 1Q041Q05 1Q06
(0.5) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 78 79 80 81 82 83 84
85 n Limited supply potential pressures inflation outlook n Labor productivity
n Resource utilization
n ECB likely to raise the policy rate further for now n The Euro to rise against USD in the near-term Real policy rate
Mfg capacity utilization
전망
China’s tightening to continue
(중국의 긴축정책은 한동안 지속 전망)
중국: 소매판매와 수출 (전년동기대비) 중국: 소매판매와 수출 (전년동기대비)
45
15 Retail sales 17
중국 명목 GDP와 상하이 A-지수 중국 명목 GDP와 상하이 A-지수
2,500
3,000 SH A-share index Nominal GDP 22,000 RMB, billion Index, 1990 = 100
15 25 35
Jan-05 M ay-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 M ay-06 Sep-06
9 11 13 15
Exports 1,000
1,500 2,000 2,500
97 99 01 03 05 07
7,000 12,000 17,000
지준율, % 지준율, %
9 10 11
Nov 3, 06 Jan 5, 07
Feb 16, 07
RMB : 달러대비환율 vs. 실질실효환율 RMB : 달러대비환율 vs. 실질실효환율
7.7
7.8 102
REER 104
USD/CNY, inverted JPMorgan, index, 2,000=100
4 5 6 7 8 9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Jun 16, 06 Jul 21, 06
Nov 3, 06 7.8
7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3
2005 2006 2007
92 94 96 98 100 102
USD/CNY spot rate
제전망
7
U.S. Japan Euro
정책금리 – 미국, 유로, 일본 (% p.a.) 정책금리 – 미국, 유로, 일본 (% p.a.)
Bank of Japan to raise policy rate, but only slowly
(일본의 금리인상은 점진적으로 이루어질 것으로 판단)
중앙은행 정책금리
(% p.a.) - JPMorgan 전망
중앙은행 정책금리(% p.a.) - JPMorgan 전망
Official interest
rate Current Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Global GDP-weighted avg. 4.51 4.58 4.59 4.71 5.00
1 2 3 4 5 6
Global GDP-weighted avg. 4.51 4.58 4.59 4.71 5.00 ex. U.S. GDP-weighted avg. 4.14 4.26 4.27 4.44 4.47 U.S. Federal funds rate 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.75 Canada Overnight fund.
rate
4.25 4.25 4.25 4.75 5.25
Euro Refi rate 3.50 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00
U.K. Repo rate 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.50
Japan Overnight call rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 China 1-year working
capital
6.12 6.39 6.66 6.75 6.75
Hong Kong
Discount window base
6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.25
Taiwan Official discount 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.875 3.00
-1 0 1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Taiwan Official discount rate
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.875 3.00
전망
Agenda
Page
세계경제전망
개요 1
5
한국경제와 환율전망
엔캐리거래의 기술적 요인 16
23
THECROSSROADS
n
Short JPY positions held by short-term players, such as hedge funds and Japanese retail investors using FX margin trading, is estimated to comprise about 20% of JPY carry trades.
엔캐리거래 – 단기투자자 최근 동향
JPMorgan flow of funds JPY position and USD/JPY JPMorgan flow of funds JPY position and USD/JPY
-350 -250
123 past y ear av erage＝100
JPM Flow of Funds, JPY spec position (inv erted)
n
Much of short-term JPY shorts, mainly from foreign accounts, seems to have been closed out.
n
JPY short position against USD held by Japanese retail margin traders stayed relatively stable.
n
New people who joined this market in 2H06 look just interested in USD/JPY.
n
The estimated amount of FX margin was
doubled in the past one year. We would not be surprised if the amount placed in FX margin
-250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07
107 111 115 119
USD/JPY
일본 개인투자자들의 외환 position (vs. JPY) million each currency unit
일본 개인투자자들의 외환 position (vs. JPY) million each currency unit
20,000 USD NZD AUD
surprised if the amount placed in FX margin trading accounts were to double from current level, in light of the household’s JPY760 trillion “cash and deposits” and assuming not even 0.1% of this amount shift to FX margin
account.
05,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07
래의기술적요인
n
More than 70% of JPY carry trades are likely foreign bond investments by Japanese investors: Their net investments in foreign bonds since the BOJ started ZIRP in 1999 amount to JPY30 trillion.
n
A large number of baby boomers are set to retire in 2007–09, which means that retirement benefits to be paid out in the next three years could be JPY3–5 trillion more than in a typical year. If a portion of these funds is put into foreign securities investments, there would be some downward pressure on JPY.
엔캐리거래: 일본개인투자자의 해외채권 투자 동향 (1)
일본거주민의 해외 투자 일본거주민의 해외 투자
JPY trillion +:outflow from Japan +:inflow to Japan
Total by Investment
Trusts Lifers Trust accounts
Investment
Trusts Uridashi
1998 1.8 0.4 2.7 3.5 0.6 3.8 2.7 15.1 15.6 1.9 0.8
1999 3.7 0.0 -0.1 3.1 -0.9 3.5 1.1 10.4 13.1 11.2 -2.3
2000 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.9 -1.4 0.0 2.5 4.2 12.9 -0.2 10.1
2001 1.5 0.4 4.6 0.6 1.3 0.6 3.9 12.5 10.7 3.8 1.8
Current Account Foreign bonds investment by Japanese
Foreign stocks investment by
Japanese JPN stocks
by foreigners
JPN bonds by foreigners FDI Total
2001 1.5 0.4 4.6 0.6 1.3 0.6 3.9 12.5 10.7 3.8 1.8
2002 4.6 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 3.8 2.9 14.4 14.1 -1.3 -3.6
2003 0.7 0.3 5.5 0.0 3.2 4.7 2.6 16.7 15.8 9.8 -2.2
2004 3.2 1.9 2.9 0.6 3.4 1.7 2.5 14.4 18.6 10.5 4.5
2005 1.5 1.0 -0.8 2.4 4.0 2.9 4.7 14.7 18.3 12.6 6.2
2006 1.5 2.0 -0.2 1.9 3.4 1.8 6.6 14.9 19.8 8.1 6.5
Source: MoF
JPY 30 trillion
거래의기술적요인
n
Japanese retail investors still have only 2.3% foreign assets in their portfolio
n
If Japan's economy holds up, individuals are likely to be more willing to take risk and their investments in foreign currency-denominated assets could rise further.
n
Between 1985 and 88, the share of cash & deposit decreased 8%p. If it happens now, about JPY120 trillion will shift from cash & deposit.
엔캐리거래: 일본개인투자자의 해외채권 투자 동향 (2)
shift from cash & deposit.
of which foreign ccy denominated investment trusts
2005/1Q 769.8 383.1 38.0 13.6 84.3 21.4 6.2 5.9 1,424.3
2005/2Q 774.2 384.7 41.0 15.5 84.3 23.9 6.5 5.6 1,435.4
2005/3Q 767.7 386.7 44.7 17.6 96.4 25.0 6.4 5.3 1,456.2
2005/4Q 778.2 391.0 51.1 19.8 118.0 26.0 7.5 4.8 1,510.1
2006/1Q 765.9 394.1 55.0 21.7 118.0 26.9 7.0 4.6 1,502.2
2006/2Q 769.6 396.1 55.8 22.2 111.4 27.9 6.9 4.6 1,499.3
(q/q chage)
2005/1Q -12.1 2.4 1.5 1.3 4.6 1.6 -0.9 0.0 -9.5
2005/2Q 4.4 1.6 3.0 1.9 0.0 2.6 0.3 -0.3 11.0
Total JPY cash &
Deposit
Foreign currency deposits JGB
Securities investment
trusts
Stocks Insurance and
pension reserves
Foreign securities
가계부분의 금융자산 잔액 (JPY trillion) 가계부분의 금융자산 잔액 (JPY trillion)
2005/2Q 4.4 1.6 3.0 1.9 0.0 2.6 0.3 -0.3 11.0
2005/3Q -6.5 2.0 3.7 2.1 12.1 1.1 -0.1 -0.3 20.9
2005/4Q 10.5 4.2 6.4 2.2 21.6 1.0 1.1 -0.5 53.9
2006/1Q -12.3 3.1 3.9 1.9 0.0 0.9 -0.5 -0.2 -8.0
2006/2Q 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.5 -6.7 1.0 -0.1 0.0 -2.9
(share)
2005/1Q 54.0% 26.9% 2.7% 1.0% 5.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4%
2005/2Q 53.9% 26.8% 2.9% 1.1% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.4%
2005/3Q 52.7% 26.6% 3.1% 1.2% 6.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.4%
2005/4Q 51.5% 25.9% 3.4% 1.3% 7.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3%
2006/1Q 51.0% 26.2% 3.7% 1.4% 7.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3%
래의기술적요인
엔캐리거래: 일본개인투자자의 해외채권 투자 동향 (3)
3% 7%
12%
27%
20s
가계부분의 연령별 금융자산 분포
§ People whose age is above 50 hold about 78% of total households’ financial assets (about JPY1,500 trillion).
§ People who are between 50 and 59 years old hold
23%
28%
20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s JPY 338 trillion
JPY 339 trillion JPY 394 trillion
Source: Nomura AM
50대의 금융포트폴리오 구성
§ People who are between 50 and 59 years old hold 50% in Cash and deposit in their portfolio.
§ Diversification of those assets is in focus.
50%
38%
12%
Cash & Deposit Insurance and others
Securities (incl.
Inv estment Trusts) JPY 170 trillion
거래의기술적요인
n
JPY finance mortgage loans are not really JPY-denominated loans. It is actually local currency loans with lower rates than otherwise because banks use cross currency swaps and the borrowers bear the currency risks
n
Therefore, it is impossible to estimate the amount from Japanese banks’ overseas loan data
n
In every high-yield countries, it is easy to make JPY financed loans. In other words, this JPY financed loans can
엔화자금 대출을 통한 엔캐리거래
n
In every high-yield countries, it is easy to make JPY financed loans. In other words, this JPY financed loans can be spread all over the world
KRW and JPY move KRW and JPY move
1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400
115 120 125 130 135 140 USD/JPY USD/KRW
900 1,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
100 105 110 115
래의기술적요인
엔캐리거래 청산을 본격화시킬수 있는 위험요인은?
§ Higher volatility
§ In August 1998, sharp rise in volatility triggered by Russia's financial crisis and LTCM's collapse resulted in unwind of JPY carry trade. Not only interest rate gap, but also low volatility is important for JPY carry trade.
§ Japanese-based risks
정책금리: 일본 vs 세계평균
% p.a.
정책금리: 일본 vs 세계평균
% p.a.
4 5 6
Global average
§ Japanese-based risks
§ Unexpectedly hawkish BoJ taking real rates into much higher territory
§ Rapid slowdown in Japanese economy/stock market, eroding domestic confidence
§ Japan verbal intervention although real intervention is highly unlikely in near future.
§ US-based risks: Broad USD trends dominate USD/JPY
§ Unexpected dollar fall would weigh on USD/JPY as well
§ Heightening protectionist sentiment in Congress
§ Substantial slow down in US economy, which led to global
(1) 0 1 2 3 4
95 97 99 01 03 05 07
Japan
JPY- 실질실효환율
2000=100
JPY- 실질실효환율
2000=100
110 120
§ Substantial slow down in US economy, which led to global economic slow down
§ Non-Japan G7 growth: Protectionist rhetoric more likely if non-Japan G7 growth slows unexpectedly
§ We do not view potentially stronger CNY as a yen threat, at least beyond very temporary risks
60 70 80 90 100 110
95 97 99 01 03 05 07
거래의기술적요인
Agenda
Page
세계경제전망
개요 1
5
한국경제와 환율전망
엔캐리거래의 기술적 요인 16
23
HECROSSROADS
Real GDP growth likely to stabilize around its potential
(한국경제성장세는 잠재성장율 부근으로 접근하는 모습을 보일 것으로 전망)
실질 GDP (% change, annualized) 실질 GDP (% change, annualized)
12
From previous quarter
3 6 9
(3) 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
From previous year
제와환율전망
106 2 108
Messages from key forward-looking indicators
(주요 선행지수의 움직임이 말해 주고 있는 것은… )
종합 선행지수
전월대비, 계절조정, 3개월 이동평균 종합 선행지수
전월대비, 계절조정, 3개월 이동평균
기업 경기 실사 지수: composite headline 100 = Neutral reading, sa
기업 경기 실사 지수: composite headline 100 = Neutral reading, sa
14,000 110
115
96 98 100 102 104 106
2004 2005 2006 2007
(1) 0 1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
소비자 전망지수: 6-month ahead outlook 100 = Neutral reading, sa
소비자 전망지수: 6-month ahead outlook 100 = Neutral reading, sa
건설수주
Won billions, sa 건설수주
Won billions, sa
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
85 90 95 100 105 110
2004 2005 2006 2007
3mma
3mma
와환율전망
2,000 120
KRW strength has almost run its course
(원화 강세는 거의 끝나가는 것으로 보임)
실질실효환율 (REER) 2000=100
실질실효환율 (REER) 2000=100
Korea won against U.S. dollar
USD/KRWKorea won against U.S. dollar
USD/KRW200 0 500 1,000 1,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
80 90 100 110
실질실효환율 - 한국 2000=100
실질실효환율 - 한국 2000=100
Taiwan China Korea
50 100 150
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Japan
제와환율전망
Korea’s growth underperforms in the current cycle
(이번 경기사이클에서 한국경제는 상대적으로 저성장한 반면 ...)
실질 GDP 성장율: 한국 vs. 세계경제 실질 GDP 성장율: 한국 vs. 세계경제
10
15 Korea Global
아시아 각국의 경제성장율
2006년 실질 GDP 성장율 (%)
아시아 각국의 경제성장율
2006년 실질 GDP 성장율 (%)
10.0 10
12 (10)
(5) 0 5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
7.5 7.0
5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.0
2.7
0 2 4 6 8 10
CH IN SG HK PH ID MY KR TH TW JP
와환율전망
50
… with external balances deteriorating
(… 경상수지는 빠르게 소진되고 있음)
아시아 각국의 경상수지 흑자 규모
(% of GDP)
아시아 각국의 경상수지 흑자 규모
(% of GDP)
35 2006 2007
경상수지와 무역수지 US$ billions
경상수지와 무역수지 US$ billions
Merchandise trade balance
(25) 0 25
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
5 10 5
10 15 20 25 30
Current account
무역수지를 제외한 경상수지 세부 항목 US$ billions
무역수지를 제외한 경상수지 세부 항목 US$ billions
Income balance
(20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
(5) 0 5
SG MY HK TW CH PH KR ID TH IN
Service balance Income balance
Current transfer
제와환율전망
75 60
Capital account in surplus, but details not healthy
(자본수지의 대부분은 단기외채증가에서 비롯)
경상수지와 국내기업들의 선물환 매도 (US$ billion, annual)
경상수지와 국내기업들의 선물환 매도 (US$ billion, annual)
투자수지 세부항목 US$ billion, annual 투자수지 세부항목 US$ billion, annual
0 25 50
15.0
28.2
15.0 10
20 30 40
50 국내기업의 선물환
매도
경상수지 흑자 직접투자
기타투자
(25) 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
10.3
15.0 15.0
6.1
(10) 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
증권투자
와환율전망
USD weakness to continue, but at a moderated pace
(달러화 약세는 지속되나 보다 완만한 기조로 진행될 듯)
120 140
실질실효환율 – 미달러 실질실효환율 – 미달러
Index, 2000 =100
60 80 100 120
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
120 140
실질실효환율 –일본엔화와 유로화 실질실효환율 –일본엔화와 유로화
Index, 2000 =100
Euro
60 80 100 120
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
JPY
제와환율전망
100 105 4.0
세계 수출시장에서의 한국비중
% of total global exports 세계 수출시장에서의 한국비중
% of total global exports
수출 단가 지수 2000 = 100, sa 수출 단가 지수 2000 = 100, sa
All
Korea companies’ pricing power appears to have peaked
(원화절상과 한국기업의 가격경쟁력)
106 67
기업 이익 (% of GDP) 기업 이익 (% of GDP)
16
80 85 90 95 100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2.5
3.0 3.5
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
원화 환율과 대기업 수출비중
KRW (in real effective exchange rate terms) 원화 환율과 대기업 수출비중
KRW (in real effective exchange rate terms)
Excluding shipment to China
88 91 94 97 100 103
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
57 59 61 63 65
12 13 14 15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
KRW (2000 = 100) 대기업 수출비중
(% of total)
와환율전망
Average 2000-04 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F
Real GDP, % change 5.4 4.0 5.0 4.3 4.8
Consumption¹ 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.6
Investment¹ 1.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7
Net trade¹ 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.5
JPMorgan forecast
한국 경제 주요 지표 한국 경제 주요 지표
Net trade¹ 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.5
Consumer prices, % [y/y] 3.2 2.8 2.2 2.5 3.1
% Dec/Dec 3.2 2.6 2.1 2.9 3.4
Producer prices, % [y/y] 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.8 4.0
Government balance, % of GDP 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.0
Exchange rate, units/$, eop 1198 1012 930 990 1000
Merchandise trade balance ($ billion) 20.9 32.7 29.2 27.8 24.9
Exports 189.2 289.0 331.8 366.0 398.8
Imports 168.3 256.3 302.6 338.2 373.9
Current account balance 13.2 15.0 6.1 -1.2 -5.7
% of GDP 2.3 1.9 0.7 -0.1 -0.6
International reserves, ($ billion) 134.9 210.0 239.0 250.0 255.0
Total external debt, ($ billion) 149.6 190.3 230.3 233.3 228.3
Short-term² 49.1 65.8 99.8 101.8 95.8
Short-term² 49.1 65.8 99.8 101.8 95.8
Total external debt, % of GDP 26 23 24 25 25
Total external debt, % of exports³ 64 53 53 54 49
Interest payments, % of exports³ 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.5 2.6
¹ Contribution to growth of GDP
² Debt with original maturity of less than one year
³ Exports of goods, services, and net transfers
제와환율전망
Selected research in 2006-07
n Tracking a possible downturn in Korea’s housing cycle, February 16, 2007 n Structural problems lie behind Korea’s weak consumption, November 3, 2006 n Growth softening, but no serious downturn in store, September 15, 2006 n Korean exports are firm, but give producers little joy, July 21, 2006 n Korean exports are firm, but give producers little joy, July 21, 2006 n Korean economy to tread water, but not sink, June 23, 2006
n Korea’s consumption recovery poised to lose steam, May 12, 2006
n The Bank of Korea: tracking policy aims of the new MPC, March 24, 2006
n Korea vs. Taiwan: a tale of two economies and two markets, February 3, 2006
와환율전망
100663-003
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THECROSSROADS
