1.9
Forecasting Territorial Evolution Towards 2020: 1996 Delphi Survey
2020년을 향한 국토미래상 전망: 전문가 델파이 조사결과(RR96-50) Yang-Ho Park, Chang-Weon Seo, and Young-Sub Kwon
1996. 12․52 pages․Korean
This study is the result of a Delphi survey on the Korean future territorial development. The survey was carried out between July and September of 1996.
Questionnaires have been mailed to 400 persons including planners, professors, specialists in the field of city & regional planning and future studies. About 220 persons have answered.
The survey results are summarized as follows.
1) The future priority effort in territorial development approach should be made to the balanced regional development.
2) The population of the Seoul metropolitan area is expected to continue to increase in the near future.
3) High-speed railway would contribute to the more balanced territorial development just to a limited extent in a limited level.
4) In order to pursue a balanced territory, more efforts such as reforms on local living environments, infrastructure, and attracting large corporations in local areas should be activated.
5) new territorial axis-wide commuting areas should be developed.
6) Forest areas are suggested to be converted for urban uses such as housing, industrial locations, and resort development.
7) The priority infrastructure in the future should be telecommunication networks and international harbors.
8) Water shortage might occur around the year 2005.
9) In 2020, the number of cars would reach 20-25 million in South Korea.
10) The post-industrialization might take place in the early 2000s, such as industrial location in foreign countries and their relocation from the inner-cities.
11) The demand on resort sites in forest areas would increase with the
expansion of five-day working system per week.
12) Diversification and suburbanization would occur in the respect of housing demands and supplies.
13) The priority policy should be established to cope with the prospective migration from North Korea to South Korea after the Unification.
14) Conservation efforts should be made along the DMZ after the Unification.
15) The 21st century territorial vision would be 『environmental-, urban-, and country-based, balanced regional development』
The Population of Seoul should be reduced to 7-9 million people from the present 11 million. The radical structural changes would take place in 2006-2010. Thereafter, Korea might become one of the advanced central nations in the international setting. In general, the territorial future for the 21st century is optimistic for Korea.