임가소득 증대와 임산업 성장 모델 개발

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(1)C2014-38 | 2014. 10.. 임가소득 증대와 임산업 성장 모델 개발. 장 민 구 정 최 김 이. 철 경 자 재 준 명 요. 수 택 춘 호 영 은 한. 연 구 위 원 연 구 위 원 위촉전문연구원 초청연구원 위촉연구원 위촉연구원 영남대 교수.

(2) 연구 담당 장철수 민경택 구자춘 정재호 최준영 김명은 이요한. 연구위원 연구위원 위촉전문연구원 초청연구원 위촉연구원 위촉연구원 영남대 교수. 연구총괄, 제6장 집필 제1,2,3,4,6장 집필 제5장 집필 제3장 제1절 집필 제3장 제2절 집필 제2장 집필, 자료수집 제3장 제1절 집필.

(3) 머 리 말. 우리나라 임업은 지형적 불리함과 부족한 인프라 등으로 다른 부문과 비교하여 경쟁 력이 낮은 것으로 인식되고 있다. 산림작물의 수는 많지만 임산물의 생산액은 많지 않으 며 임업에 종사하는 임가의 소득도 농가 또는 어가와 비교하면 상대적으로 낮은 수준에 있다. 또, 그동안 산림정책이 보호에 치중하였기 때문에 임업의 산업화도 더딘 편이다. 그럼에도 청정 자연에서 생산되는 임산물에 대한 소비자 수요가 증가하고 있으며 산을 찾는 도시민의 수도 증가하고 있다. 정부에서도 임산물 생산기반에 꾸준히 투자하여 왔. ·. 기 때문에 인프라도 갖추어졌다. 이러한 분위기를 반영하여 임업생산을 가공, 체험 관광. 과 연계하여 6차산업화 한다면 임업은 농림업의 새로운 성장 동력이 될 수 있다. 자연에 서 생산활동을 영위한다는 매력 때문에 귀촌 희망자들이 임산물 생산에 높은 관심을 보 이고 있는 것도 고무적이다. 또, 국내 산림자원이 점차 성숙림에 접어들고 있기 때문에 이를 산업화와 연계하는 것은 매우 중요한 과제가 되었다.. 이러한 변화에 대응하여 산림소득 증대와 임업의 산업화 촉진을 목표로. 2012년 한국. 임업진흥원이 설립되었다. 한국임업진흥원은 산림의 새로운 미래가치를 창조하는 임업. 서비스 전문기관을 지향하면서 착실히 성장하여 왔지만, 출범한지 3년에 접어들고 있기 때문에 기관의 비전과 목표 달성을 위해 로드맵을 세우고 세부 전략과제를 수립해야 하 는 시점이 되었다. 이 연구는 한국임업진흥원의 효과적인 역할 수행을 위한 중장기 전략과제와 세부 목 표를 수립하는 데 도움을 주고자 수행되었다. 특히 임업진흥 컨설팅과 임산물 인증이 임. ·. 가소득 증진에 기여하는 효과를 분석하고, 임업 임산업의 성장요인 분석과 장래 전망에. ·. 기초하여 임업 임산업의 규모 증진 목표를 제시하고자 하였다. 이와 함께 목표 달성을 위한 세부 전략과제를 제시하였다.. 이 연구를 위해 조언을 아끼지 않은 자문위원분들과 설문 조사에 응해주신 산촌 주민 들과 소비자분들께 감사를 드린다. 연구결과가 한국임업진흥원의 원대한 목표 달성에 효과적으로 기여할 수 있기를 바란다.. 2014. 10. 한국농촌경제연구원장 최 세 균.

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(5) iii 요. 약. 임업은 산림을 대상으로 하는 산업으로서 국토의 관리와 이용, 생태계 보전, 지역의. 균형발전 등에 기여를 한다. 하지만 우리나라에서 임업은 다른 산업보다 뒤떨어지는 것 으로 인식되고 있다. 임업에 대한 그릇된 인식을 바꾸고 임업의 성장을 이끌기 위해. 2012년 한국임업진흥원이 출범하게 되었다. 이 연구는 한국임업진흥원의 중장기 전략과 제와 목표를 수립하는 데 필요한 정보를 제공하고자 수행되었다. 한국임업진흥원의 설립목적은 산림소득 증대와 산업화 촉진이다 이 연구에서는 이 두 가지 목적을 구분하여 접근하였다. 첫째, 컨설팅 활동과 인증 활동을 기초로 임가소득을 향상시킬 수 있는 목표를 수립했다. 컨설팅 활동을 통해 임산물 재배의 기술효율성 개선 에 기여할 수 있는 부분은 자료포락선분석(Data. Envelopment Analysis)을. 응용하였다.. 또, 지난 2년간 임업진흥원이 수행한 컨설팅 활동자료를 분석하고 컨설팅 수혜자에 대해. 설문조사하여 만족도와 성과를 분석하였다. 그리고 임산물에 대해 품질인증을 도입하였 을 때 소비자들의 추가적인 지불의사를 분석하기 위해 가상가치법(Contingent. Valuation. Method)을 사용하였다. 둘째, 산업화 촉진 활동을 통해 산림산업 규모를 증진시킬 수 있 는 목표를 수립했다. 우선 그동안 임업·임산업의 성장요인을 분석하였고 산림산업의 장 래 추세를 파악하기 위한 계량모형을 구축하였다. 임가들의 임업소득이 음의 소득을 나타내거나 전년보다 감소한 사례가 많기 때문에 적절한 기술지도와 경영개선으로 임업소득의 감소부분을 상쇄하거나 또는 적어도 음의 소득이 발생하지 않도록 할 수 있다면 임가 소득의 평균값도 크게 향상될 것으로 기대된 다. 또한 임업생산에서 임가들의 기술격차가 크게 나타나며 비효율성이 존재하는 것으 로 나타난다. 이러한 기술격차를 해소하고 선진기술을 확산하는 것이 임업진흥원의 중. 요 임무가 되어야 한다. 선진적인 임업인의 재배기술을 보급하는 것이 매우 중요한 과제. 임을 보여준다. 또한 임산물 인증활동(GAP)을 통해 임업소득을 증대 효과를 추정한다 면, 임가 소득에서 임업부문이 차지하는 비중이 낮아지지만 임가들의 임업소득을 증진 시켜 임업의존도를 높일 수 있다고 판단된다. 임업진흥원은 임업소득 증진을 위해 임가. 들을 대상으로 하는 컨설팅 사업을 활성화해야 한다. 특히 임업인 만족도 또는 효과성이. 높은 현장컨설팅, 교육 프로그램을 개발해야 한다. 이를 통해 임업인의 기술수준과 경영 능력을 향상시키고 전업임가를 육성하여 임업부문의 인적자본 형성에 노력해야 한다. 이러한 노력을 기울인다면 임가소득은. 2020년 3,500만 원 수준을 달성할 수 있을 것으로.

(6) iv 예상된다.. 산림산업의 규모화 증대도 중요한 문제이다. 임업 생산액 성장에서 중요한 요소는 순. 임목생장액을 증대시키는 것이다. 이를 높이기 위해서는 입목 가격을 인상시켜야 하는. 데, 이는 국산재 용도를 저급용재로 사용하지 않고 고급용재로 이용하도록 유도함으로 써 달성할 수 있다. 이를 위해서 국산재를 이용하는 제재업을 활성하고 목재산업과 국내 임업의 연관성을 높여야 한다. 또한 단기 임산물에 대해서도 경쟁력을 높여나가고 고품. 질 임산물 생산을 유도한다면 소비를 증진시키고 생산액 증가로 이어질 것이다. 한국임 업진흥원은 단기 임산물에 대해. ·. GAP. 인증을 점차 확산해 나가는 것이 중요한 과제가. 된다. 임업 성장 외에도 목재 목제품 공업의 성장은 기후변화 대응이라는 측면에서 중요 하다. 목재의 우수성, 친환경성을 널리 홍보하고 탄소발자국 제도 등을 활용하면 국산재 소비를 확대할 수 있을 것이다. 또한 제재업의 선진화를 위해 시설을 개선하고 업체 간. 기술수준의 격차를 해소해 가는 것이 필요하다. 한편, 펄프 제지 공업 부문에 대해서는 산림정책이나 임업진흥원에서 개입할 여지가 많지 않지만 종이제품에 대해 친환경인증 이 중요해 질 것으로 전망되므로, 산림인증을 취득한 산림에서 원료를 확보하는 것이 중. 요한 과제가 될 것으로 보인다. 산림인증이 확대되도록 임업진흥원이 노력해야 할 것이 다. 이러한 활동을 통해 산림산업의 규모는. 2020년 40조. 원에 이를 것으로 기대된다..

(7) v. ABSTRACT A Study on the Role of Kofpi in increasing forestry household income and growing forest-related industry. Forest area of South Korea occupies 65 percent of the land area. Forestry, which facilitates the forest, plays significant roles: efficient appropriation of the land, conservation of ecosystem, and equally balanced developments. Korea Forestry Promotion Institute (Kofpi) was founded in 2012, emphasizing its roles of raising the households incomes from the forest and catalyzing the industrialization of the forestry in South Korea. Departing from this point, this research is aiming to provide information that can help Kofpi devise long-term management goals and action plans. Purposes of the foundation of Kofpi are to raise the incomes of households from the forest and to catalyze the industrialization of the forestry, on which this research mainly is focusing. First, plans that could raise the households incomes from the forest were provided based on consultations and certifications. Date Envelopment Analysis was applied to analyze how consultations would improve the effectiveness of cultivating techniques regarding forest products. And survey was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of consulting activity in forestry. Then, Contingent Valuation Method was used to estimate the expected increase of the value of forest products when certificated by Kofpi. Second, plans for Kofpi to expand industries related to forest were proposed based on promoting activities for the industralization of the forestry. Quantitative analysis was applied to estimate baseline that shows the growth of industries related to forest without interventions of Kofpi. According to the results, some cases showed that there were negative incomes of forestry households or even decreased income. It was expected that the average of the incomes of forestry households would increase, provided that adequate technical instructions or management improvement was appropriately implemented by Kofpi. Moreover, in forestry, the results indicated that there were not only technical gap between producers but also inefficiency within the producers. In other words, supplying advanced cultivating techniques seemed to be urgent. Aggressive consultations to 3 percent of forestry households every year would help achieve the goal of raising households incomes from forests. Certificating forest goods brought about the increase of the incomes of forestry households as well. Although the certification reduced the portion of incomes that came from forests, it enlarged the absolute amount of the incomes. Thus, it is suggested that Kofpi should improve consultations mainly targeting.

(8) vi. at forestry households, especially including field consultations and educating programs. Raising net gross growing stock was one of the most significant factors in achieving the goal of expanding forest-related industry production. Net gross growing stock could be raised by the mean of increasing the timber price. One way to increase the timber price was to use domestic timber as high quality of timber rather than low quality of one. Moreover, short-term forest goods would result in more consumption and production only when high quality of forest goods were produced. It is important for Kofpi to propagate GAP certification to short-term forest goods. In addition to the growth of forestry, the growth of timber manufacturing played an central role in tackling climate change. If Kofpi advertised the prominence and the eco-friendship of timber and made use of carbon-foot-prints, the level of consumption on domestic timber would be elevated. Also, improving facilities and lessening the gaps between manufacturers would lead to make manufacturing techniques more advanced. On the other hand, Kofpi had small influences on pulp and paper manufacturing. But, because paper products are one of consuming goods, it is important to integrate consumption trend on the paper products and secure the plenty amount of raw materials that Kofpi certificated as eco-friend products. Researchers: Cheol-Su Chang, Kyung-Taek Min, Ja-Choon Koo, Jae-Ho Jeong, Jun-Yeong Choi, Myeong-Eun Kim, Yo-Han Lee Research period: 2014. 6. - 2014. 10. E-mail address: minkt@krei.re.kr.

(9) vii 차 례. 제1장 서 론. ··············································································································· 1 연구목적 ························································································································· 2 연구내용과 방법 ··········································································································· 2 기대효과 ························································································································· 4 제2장 우리나라 임업·임산업 경제 동향 1. 임업 부문 ······················································································································· 6 2. 임산업 부문 ················································································································· 10 3. 임가 현황과 임가소득 동향 ······················································································· 15 4. 단기임산물 재배의 경제성 분석 ··············································································· 22 제3장 임업·임산업 성장요인 분석 1. 생산함수 접근법에 의한 임업·임산업 성장요인 분석 ············································ 30 2. 지수법을 이용한 임업·임산업 성장 분석 ································································ 38 제4장 임업·임산업의 경영효율성 분석 1. 단기임산물 재배의 경영효율성 분석 ······································································· 54 2. 임산업의 경영효율성 분석 ························································································ 68 제5장 임업진흥 컨설팅과 임산물 인증의 효과 분석 1. 임업진흥 컨설팅의 임가소득 기여효과 분석 ·························································· 74 2. 우수 임산물 인증에 대한 국민의식 조사 ································································ 91 제6장 임가소득 증진과 임산업 성장을 위한 임업진흥원의 과제 1. 임업·임산업의 장래 전망 ························································································· 106 2. 임업진흥원의 역할과 목표 ······················································································ 111 3. 목표달성을 위한 임업진흥원의 전략과제 ······························································ 116 1. 2. 3. 4.. 연구의 필요성.

(10) viii. 부록 조사표. ····························································································································· 121. 참고문헌. ·························································································································· 131.

(11) ix 표 차 례. 제2장 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표. 2-1. 2-2. 2-3. 2-4. 2-5. 2-6. 2-7. 2-8. 2-9. 2-10. 2-11. 2-12.. 제3장 표 표 표 표 표 표 표. 3-1. 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 3-5. 3-6. 3-7.. 제4장 표 표 표 표. 4-1. 4-2. 4-3. 4-4.. ··········································································· 6 임업 생산액 추이, 2000-2012 ·········································································· 7 순임목생장액의 추이, 2003-2010 ····································································· 7 용도별 목재 수급 추이 ··················································································· 11 목재산업의 생산액 추이 ················································································· 13 목재산업의 현황(2012년 기준) ······································································· 14 국민경제에서 목재산업의 위치 ······································································ 14 임가 수 및 전·겸업 임가 변화 ······································································ 15 임가소득 동향 ·································································································· 17 임업소득 동향 ································································································ 18 임가와 농·어가 가구소득 비교 ·································································· 18 단기임산물 재배의 수익성 분석 ·································································· 25 경제활동별 국민총소득(명목). ·. ··································································· 31 임업, 목재·나무제품 제조업, 펄프·종이제품 제조업 포괄범위 ·················· 35 생산함수 추정결과 ··························································································· 36 임산업의 부문별 성장회계, 1999-2012 ························································· 37 총요소생산성 분석의 선행연구 사례 ····························································· 41 총요소생산성 연간증가율과 평균증가율 ······················································· 44 임업 및 임산업 총요소생산성 요인 분석 결과 ············································ 47 임업 임산업 부문의 추세 성장률. ··············································································· 61 농업 분야 DEA 응용연구 사례 ····································································· 61 분석에 이용한 자료의 기술통계 ···································································· 62 품목별 경영효율성 분석 결과 ········································································ 63 분석 표본의 지역별 분포.

(12) x 표 표 표 표. 4-5. 4-6. 4-7. 4-8.. 제5장 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표. 5-1. 5-2. 5-3. 5-4. 5-5. 5-6. 5-7. 5-8. 5-9. 5-10. 5-11. 5-12. 5-13. 5-14. 5-15. 5-16. 5-17. 5-18. 5-19.. 제6장 표 표 표 표. 6-1. 6-2. 6-3. 6-4.. ······················································· 66 품목별 규모에 대한 보수 분석 ······································································ 67 분석에 이용한 자료의 기술통계 ···································································· 69 일반제재업의 경영효율성 분석 결과 ····························································· 70 효율성 개선에 따른 임업소득 증대효과. ····························································································· 76 임업진흥 컨설팅의 방법과 유형에 따른 모집단 구분 ································ 78 분석을 위한 모집단 구성 및 표본할당 ························································· 79 응답자 특성 ······································································································ 79 컨설팅에 대한 만족도 ····················································································· 80 컨설팅에 대한 활용도 ····················································································· 82 컨설팅이 사업 전반에 미친 영향 ·································································· 84 컨설팅이 소득에 미친 영향 ············································································ 86 음의 임업소득을 제거했을 때의 평균 임업소득의 변화 ···························· 87 표본임가의 연도별 임업소득 변화율 ··························································· 89 응답자의 사회경제적 특성 ············································································ 93 GAP 제도에 대한 소비자 태도 ··································································· 95 GAP 인증 임산물 현황 ················································································· 95 GAP 인증 임산물 구입 여부 ······································································· 96 GAP 인증 임산물의 주요 구입처 ································································ 96 GAP 인증 임산물에 대한 구입 빈도, 비중, 지출금액 ······························ 97 임산물의 소비지 평균 가격 ·········································································· 99 품목별 WTP 함수의 추정 계수 ······························································· 100 품목별 프리미엄 WTP 추정결과 ······························································· 101 분야별 상담 내용. ······················································································· 108 추정결과 ·········································································································· 109 임가소득 증대의 적정 목표 ········································································ 113 산림산업 규모 증대의 적정목표 ·································································· 114 임업 생산액의 전망.

(13) xi 그 림 차 례. 제1장 그림. 연구의 흐름도. 2-1. 2-2. 2-3. 2-4. 2-5. 2-6. 2-7. 2-8. 2-9. 2-10. 2-11. 2-12. 2-13.. 단기임산물의 생산액 추이. 3-1. 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 3-5. 3-6. 3-7.. 임업부문 생산액과 선형추세. 제2장 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림. 제3장 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림 그림. ································································································ 4. 1-1.. ············································································ 8 우리나라 목재수급 추이 ·············································································· 11 국산재 이용현황 (2010년 기준) ································································· 12 재배품목별 임가 구성비 ·············································································· 16 임업경영주 연령분포 추이 ·········································································· 16 가구원 규모의 추이 ····················································································· 16 업종별 임가소득 변화 ················································································· 19 임가소득의 변화 ··························································································· 19 연도별 임가소득 분포 ················································································· 20 연도별 세부 소득원별 변화 ······································································ 20 임업소득의 변화, 2005-2013 ····································································· 21 연도별 음의 임업소득 비율 ······································································ 21 시간에 따른 단기임산물 재배의 수익/비용 그래프 ······························· 26 ······································································ 32 목제품 제조업 부문의 생산액과 선형추세 ··············································· 32 종이 제조업 부문의 생산액과 선형추세 ··················································· 32 임업부문 생산액과 H-P 추세 ····································································· 33 목제품 제조업 부문의 생산액과 H-P 추세 ··············································· 33 종이 제조업 부문의 생산액과 H-P 추세 ·················································· 33 임업·임산업의 부문별 총요소생산성 변화 ················································ 45.