Performance Goal 3.2.2: Open International Electric Power Markets

문서에서 FY 2015 Annual Performance Report FY 2017 Annual Performance Plan (페이지 133-137)

Performance Goal Statement: By September 30, 2017, using 2013 baseline figures, increase the use of renewable energy and improve energy efficiency in developing countries as well as increase energy-related exports and investments in the Western Hemisphere through regional power interconnections. In Asia, U.S.

diplomacy will significantly advance energy-related trade and investment through the U.S. Export-Import Bank and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation.

Performance Goal Overview

In the next 25 years, the world is going to need up to $20 trillion in new investment to generate and transmit electricity. An energy transformation of this magnitude cannot be accomplished by governments alone; most of the needed investment will come from the private sector.

Paving the way for large-scale infrastructure investment is critical to accelerating market transformation and will provide significant export opportunity for U.S. energy technologies, equipment and other goods and services.

Moving from historic bilateral cross-border power trade agreements towards larger regional interconnection strategies requires multilateral engagement. The State Department will continue to use its bilateral, multilateral and regional diplomacy, and work through existing initiatives like the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas, to encourage progress in Connect 2022.

Through Power Africa, the U.S. government has committed to doubling access to power in sub-Saharan Africa.

By strengthening regional power pools, Power Africa will promote increase cross-border trade in electricity through increased private sector investments and assisting governments to improve the regulatory framework governing regional power markets.

Key Indicator: Total of electricity traded through the regional power market in Central America, which has been a focus of U.S. policy and technical assistance engagements to increase power sector integration (in GWh)

FY 2013

Baseline FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017

Target N/A 961.8 1600 1500 1600

Result 506 1445.8 1368.5

Indicator Analysis

This indicator measures one of the outcomes of Department of State engagement to promote greater regional integration in the Western Hemisphere under the Connect 2022 Initiative, an effort to: 1) promote increased access to power and greater integration of renewable energy through electrical interconnections and regional

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Strategic Goal 3: Promote the Transition to a Low Emission, Climate- Resilient World while Expanding Global Access to Sustainable Energy

power markets; 2) improve policies and regulatory frameworks to facilitate the integration of lower carbon technologies, including distributed systems, renewable energy, and natural gas, into power systems; and 3) provide U.S. policy and technical support for strengthening the commercial and investment environment to increase access to private and multilateral financing.

The FY 2015 target represented an annual increase over actual FY 2014 numbers and the FY 2013 baseline. The FY 2015 actual outcome did not match the target, reflecting a 5.4 percent decrease from the actual FY 2014 numbers, but a 176 percent increase over the FY 2013 baseline. This outcome reflects an overall increase in regional trade that resulted from the decision to adopt permanent market rules for Central America’s regional market (MER – Mercado Electrico Regional) in mid-2013, which provided greater certainty for power trade contracts, but in FY 2015 there was less drought-induced demand for imports to countries dependent on hydropower. Because the market data in FY 2014 showed a clear acceleration in MER trade growth from mid-2013, after several years in which annual trade volume fluctuated around 350GWh, the FY 2015-2017 targets were revised upwards to reflect this rapid growth as well as the upper limits of current transmission capacity.

Two factors that are expected to affect out-year performance are (1) whether the countries in the Central American Electrical Interconnection System (Spanish acronym SIEPAC) follow through on upgrades to national grid infrastructure required to achieve the 300MW design capacity of the regional transmission line across all nodes, (2) whether they enact regulatory changes to permit firm and longer-term contracts, which would reduce overall volatility in regional trade, and (3) weather patterns that influence hydropower capacity. As the countries in question have begun moving forward with these transmission upgrades, the out-year targets should remain attainable. ENR funded technical analysis to help the regional system operator work through maximizing the transfer capacity. As follow-on to these transmission upgrades, Central American countries are discussing the structural opportunity to double the capacity of the regional transmission line. This long-term project, coupled with the introduction of firm and longer-term contracts, would have the potential to greatly increase the annual trade volume along the line.

Indicator Methodology

Data source: Data is available and owned by the Operating Entity of the Regional Market, available on-line in Spanish at www.enteoperador.org.

Data quality: No known limitations in the data.

Key Indicator: Total of electricity imported and exported through regional power pools or through bilateral agreements (in MWh)

FY 2014 Baseline FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017

Target N/A 10,350 15,500 20,200

Result 8,300 N/A

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Strategic Goal 3: Promote the Transition to a Low Emission, Climate- Resilient World while Expanding Global Access to Sustainable Energy

Indicator Analysis

At the time of the report, data is still being compiled by the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) by the various utilities participating in bilateral trading. The figures for FY 2015, 2016 and 2017 are projections based on the current energy supply and demand matrices and the timelines for completing major generation and

interconnection projects by WAPP.

South Africa and East Africa regional power pools are in the beginning stages of capacity development. Both regions with U.S. Government assistance are targeted to come online in 2017-2018.

Indicator Methodology

Data is collected by WAPP from the various supply and consumption points in the bilateral trading markets.

WAPP’s monitoring center and coordinator collects data on all the regional interconnected lines where trade takes place.

Key Indicator: Total of public and private funds (in USD) leveraged by U.S. government for energy projects FY 2013

Baseline FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017

Target N/A 1.489 billion 1.5 billion 4.8 billion 16.6 billion

Result 1.384 billion 6.90 billion 2.2 billion

Indicator Analysis

Due to the fickle and sometimes fragile nature of energy transactions, projecting the amount to be leveraged from private sector, particularly in countries where policy regulations limit the amount of private sector participation, can be very difficult.

The large deviation from the target for FY 2015 was due to a transcription error that has been corrected.

Indicator Methodology

This indicator tracks investment leveraged for energy projects reaching financial close during the fiscal year.

These projects include clean energy projects (wind, hydro, biomass, etc.), natural gas, energy metering and distribution, among others. Investment leveraged could involve either public and/or private funds and include investments, in-kind contributions, or other sources.

The contribution and resources must be measurable i.e. something of value that permits evaluation of the contribution’s impact on achieving desired results. Measurement is taken at the time of commitment, not disbursement of funds.

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Strategic Goal 3: Promote the Transition to a Low Emission, Climate- Resilient World while Expanding Global Access to Sustainable Energy

Key Indicator: Clean energy generation capacity installed or rehabilitated as a result of U.S. government assistance (in MW)

FY 2013

Baseline FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017

Target N/A 250 60 310 250

Result 29 185 8.5

Indicator Analysis

The U.S. Government goals are to increase in energy supply availability in a commercially and environmentally sustainable manner, improve energy sector guidance, and improve the financial and technical performance of key energy sector organizations. The majority of support in this area is in improving the regulatory and enabling environment for clean energy investment, with some support for infrastructure investments. It takes several years for regulatory improvements and investments to result in new, operational installed capacity or rehabilitated capacity.

In some countries additional support is leveraged for clean energy transactions and infrastructure. In Pakistan, the U.S. Government has supported the rehabilitation of several hydroelectric power plants. In FY 2015, USAID continued the rehabilitation of the Tarbela and Mangla Dams, which is expected to continue through FY 2017 and will add 110 MW of energy. USAID has also committed to constructing the Kaitu Weir component of the Kurram Tangi Dam in North Waziristan Agency, which will be completed in FY 2017 and generate 18 MW of energy.

Construction of a 60 MW Kenyan wind farm in Kinangop, Nyandarua was planned for 2015, but has been stalled due to an ongoing land acquisition dispute. Construction of the 310 MW Kenyan wind farm in Lake Turkana broke ground in July, 2015 and is scheduled for completion in 2016.

Indicator Methodology

Data source: This indicator is measured in MW, and represents the total capacity of the system in the year in which the installation or rehabilitation was completed. The indicator does not measure actual generated capacity, or MWh, that result from these activities.

Data Quality: Performance data, verified using Data Quality Assessments (DQAs), must meet standards of validity, integrity, precision, reliability, and timeliness. Each Operating Unit must document the methodology used to conduct the DQAs. DQA and data source records are maintained in the Performance Management Plans. (For details, refer to USAID's Automated Directive System [ADS] Chapter 203.3.11,

http://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1870/203.pdf).

Page 137 of 221

Strategic Goal 3: Promote the Transition to a Low Emission, Climate-

Resilient World while Expanding Global Access to Sustainable Energy

문서에서 FY 2015 Annual Performance Report FY 2017 Annual Performance Plan (페이지 133-137)

Outline

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