In the joint model, cyclones were categorized by the portion of the upazilas that appear to be within the path of the storm, using three levels (not affected at all, 50% or more of the upazilas affected, 75% or more affected) and by the maximum wind speed of the event (upazilas affected by wind stronger than 40 m/s). For each of these categories, test were
conducted for the five nutrition and the five food security and food price indicators and for the period directly following the event and four lagged time periods (i.e. up to nine months after the event).
Nutrition indicators
Table 19 displays the results of the joint model tests for the nutrition indicators. The zlen (stunting) indicators have a consistent pattern
but not in the direction expected.
Zlen is positive for all the lagged periods between three and nine months (irrespective of the severity of the events), most of the coefficients being statistically significant, thus suggesting that children living in communities affected by cyclones have lower levels of stunting than children living in non-affected communities.
Legend: Only statistically significant p-values are indicated (in bold), other non-significant p-values are omitted. Coefficient values highlighted in light red indicate cases for which the DiD test suggests a worsening situation in relation to nutrition, that is, a lower zl, zw, BMI, child dd or maternal DD in the affected (treatment) communities, compared to the non-affected (control) communities. Dark red values indicate cases where the worsening of the nutritional situation is statistically significant.
zlen: Length/Height for age z-score; zwfl: weight for Length/Height z-score; BMI: Maternal body mass index; dd: Child dietary diversity; DD: Maternal dietary diversity. The notation +3m; +5m, +7m, and +9m refer to 3-month, 5-month, 7-month, and 9-month lagged periods respectively, while ‘event’
refers to the period during or just after the event.
(a) The following variables were also included in the models (but not shown in the table) to control for individual and household effects: age and sex of child; mother age and education; livelihood strategies (farmer; labour; transport; salary; business); family size; birth order; source for drinking; use of latrine –see definitions in section 2.5.2.
BMI all
Child dd all
DD all
BMI 50%
Child dd 50%
DD 50%
BMI 75%
Child dd 75%
DD 75%
BMI wind 40+
Child dd wind 40+
DD wind 40+
In contrast the zwfl (wasting)
indicators were consistently negative (most statistically significant) for lagged periods directly after the events until five and seven months afte22. It is also interesting to notice that for the five and
seven-month lagged periods, the zwfl coefficients increase in absolute value progressively with the degree of severity of the events (from ‘all events’ to ‘impact 75%’). For the severe events (wind > 40 m/s) the impact was negative and statistically
significant just after the event and for five and seven months after periods.
Overall the lowest coefficients are observed around the five-month lagged periods irrespective of the severity of the event.
Table 20. Cyclone event joint models(a) – food security and food price indicators FL all
22 Furthermore this relationship persists even after the zlen variable is added to the model (results not shown).
PO all
PFB wind 40+
coef
Legend: Only statistically significant p-values are indicated (in bold), other non-significant p-values are omitted. Coefficient values highlighted in light red indicate cases for which the test suggests a worsening situation in relation to food security, that is, a higher FL, FE, PR, PO, or PFB in the affected (treatment) communities, compared to the non-affected (control) communities. Dark red values indicate cases where the worsening of the food security or food price situation is statistically significant.
FL: food loan; FE: food expenditure; PR: rice price; PO: soybean oil price; PBF: price of food basket. The notation +3m; +5m, +7m, and +9m refer to 3-month, 5-month, 7-month, and 9-month lagged periods respectively, while ‘event’ refers to the period during or just after the event.
(a) The following variables were also included in the models (but not shown in the table) to control for individual and household effects: age and sex of child; mother age and education; livelihood strategies (farmer; labour; transport; salary; business); family size; birth order; source for drinking; use of latrine –see definitions in section 2.5.2.
There is no statistically significant impact of cyclone on maternal BMI except for immediately after the most severe event. The maternal DD and child dd show very similar patterns:
the period directly following the events and the three-month lagged period was positively related to the
event, suggesting that the dietary diversity of both children and mothers in communities that have been affected by cyclones are higher than in communities that have not been affected by cyclones. After, it appears that mothers and children consume less diverse diets for two
periods (statistically significant for 7 month lag), before finally settling back to more diverse again during the nine-month lagged period. The reason for this difference could be related to the seasons in which cyclones most often occur and possibly the variation in the seasonal
accessibility/abundance of certain food items such as fish.
Food security and food price indicators
Table 20 displays the food security and food price indicators estimated for the cyclone joint models. All three price indicators (PR, PO, and PFB) were consistent: all signs are positive over the period directly following the cyclone and during the next two months and most of these values are statistically significant.
Note also that the values of the coefficients tend to increase with the severity of cyclones. For very severe events (windspeed>40m/s) the food price coefficients remain all highly significant for more than seven months. For lower intensity events, however, the values of the coefficients tend to decrease relatively rapidly suggesting that for these lower intensity cyclones, prices return to more normal levels more rapidly.
The food loan (FL) indicator also had a consistent pattern suggesting
that households did engage in loan taking for food. The coefficients increase with the severity of the event, to the extent that for severe events characterized by wind-speed greater than 40 m/s, all the coefficients are positive and statistically significant over all periods except the five-month lagged period.
The FE (food expenditure) is
consistently negative and statistically significant for the first five months after the cyclones and this pattern is observed irrespective of the level of intensity, suggesting that households do not spend more of their budget on food after cyclones –instead it seems they spend even less than communities that are not-affected by these cyclones for the same period23.
