CHAPTER 4 Modelling road safety in twenty-one countries
4.7 Denmark
For Denmark, a model of the fatality rate was constructed using the all-occupant seat belt wearing rate, alcohol deaths per vkt and a dummy variable for the introduction of speed cameras in 1991 and increases in 1996. As well, dummy variables were included in the period prior to 1973 for higher speed limits and the fatalities peak in 1970-71. The results are shown in Table 4.47.
Table 4.47 Regression results for predicting the Danish fatality rate
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9955961
R Square 0.9912116
Adjusted R Square 0.9901398 Standard Error 0.8860933
Observations 47
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 3630.773992 726.15479 924.84786 5.33522E-41
Residual 41 32.19161529 0.7851613
Total 46 3662.965607
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 17.009100 1.840962 9.239247 0.000000 13.291202 20.726997
Seat belts -0.125322 0.017714 -7.074786 0.000000 -0.161095 -0.089548
SpeedLimits 5.387422 0.752069 7.163467 0.000000 3.868587 6.906256
Alcohol 0.921971 0.249446 3.696080 0.000642 0.418205 1.425736
Dum7071 5.277569 0.743477 7.098497 0.000000 3.776087 6.779051
Speedcams -0.839246 0.386344 -2.172276 0.035671 -1.619484 -0.059008
Figure 4.145 shows the pattern of the fatality rate is fairly accurately predicted by the model.
Figure 4.145 Actual/predicted Danish fatality rate
Fatalities per billion safety-wgt vkt
2029 2027 2025 20212023 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965
Actual Predicted
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Figure 4.146 shows the components of the Danish fatality prediction/forecast. A major influence is the increase in seat belt wearing. From the mid-80s, alcohol control starts to have an effect, as do speed cameras from the early 90s.
Figure 4.146 Components of the Danish fatality rate prediction
2029 2027 2025 2023 20192021 2017 2015 20112013 2009 2007 2005 20012003 1999
Fatalities per billion safey-wgt vkt
Fatality rate
Impact of seatbelts + alcohol + speed cameras + dummies Impact of seatbelts + alcohol + speed cameras
Impact of seatbelts + alcohol Impact of seatbelts
0
Figure 4.147 shows that the modeling also produces a fairly accurate prediction of the level of fatalities over time.
Figure 4.147 Actual/predicted Danish road deaths
2029
Actual Predicted
0
Chapter 4 • Modelling road safety in twenty-one countries The safety weights applied in Denmark were cars, light commercial vehicles and other vehicles 1.0, motorcycles 12.0, buses 1.5, trucks 2.0 and mopeds 6.0. The injury weighted vkt calculation has motorcycles at 9.0 and mopeds at 4.5.
In Denmark, the injury rate (road injuries per billion injury-weighted vkt) moved in sync with the fatality rate. This is shown in Figure 4.148.
Figure 4.148 Danish injury and fatality rates
-30 70 170 270 370 470 570 670 770 870
2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965
Fatalities per billion vkt
Injury rate Fatality rate
Injuries per billion vkt
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
A model of the injury rate was constructed using the fatality rate and a dummy variable. The regression results are shown in Table 4.48.
Table 4.48 Regression results for predicting the Danish injury rate
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9909971
R Square 0.9820752
Adjusted R Square 0.9812604 Standard Error 30.7202402
Observations 47
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 2275052.419 1137526.2 1205.34729 3.76717E-39
Residual 44 41524.25908 943.73316
Total 46 2316576.678
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept -29.091063 9.536737 -3.050421 0.003863 -48.311094 -9.871032
FatalRate 24.580929 0.508629 48.327828 0.000000 23.555855 25.606003
Dum8595 -57.187969 10.297735 -5.553451 0.000002 -77.941690 -36.434248
Figure 4.149 shows the pattern of the injury rate is fairly accurately predicted by the model.
Figure 4.150 shows that the modeling also produces a fairly accurate prediction of the level of injuries over time.
Figure 4.149 Actual and predicted Danish injury rate
2029
Actual Predicted
Injuries per billion injury-wgt vkt
0
Figure 4.150 Actual and predicted Danish road injuries
2029
Actual Predicted
0
Chapter 4 • Modelling road safety in twenty-one countries
4.8 Finland
For Finland, a model of the fatality rate was constructed using the all-occupant seat belt wearing rate and measures of alcohol deaths per vkt and speed fines per vkt, as well as a dummy variable and a time trend prior to 1973. The results are shown in Table 4.49.
Table 4.49 Regression results for predicting the Finnish fatality rate
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9940780
R Square 0.9881911
Adjusted R Square 0.9867853 Standard Error 1.4203631
Observations 48
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 7090.548715 1418.109 702.9283 2.54858E-39
Residual 42 84.73211847 2.017431
Total 47 7175.280833
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 17.408412 2.276334 7.647565 0.000000 12.814584 22.002240
Seat belts -0.220491 0.017597 -12.52978 0.000000 -0.256004 -0.184979
Alcdths/vkt 4.080406 0.484054 8.429656 0.000000 3.103546 5.057266
Timeles73 1.229333 0.184329 6.669223 0.000000 0.857341 1.601324
Dumles74 2.373011 1.483486 1.599618 0.117180 -0.620786 5.366807
SpFines/vkt -0.000238 0.000194 -1.228629 0.226051 -0.000630 0.000153
Figure 4.151 shows the pattern of the fatality rate is fairly accurately predicted by the model.
Figure 4.151 Actual/predicted Finnish fatality rate
Fatalities per billion safety-wgt vkt
2029 2027 2025 2023 2021 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965
Actual Predicted
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Figure 4.152 shows the components of the Finnish fatality prediction/forecast. The major influence is the increase in seat belt wearing. From the early 90s, alcohol control starts to have an effect, as does speed control from the early 2000s.
Figure 4.152 Components of the Finnish fatality rate prediction
2029
Fatalities per billion safey-wgt vkt
Fatality rate
Impact of seatbelts + alcohol + speed fines + dummies Impact of seatbelts + alcohol + speed fines
Impact of seatbelts + alcohol Impact of seatbelts
0
Figure 4.153 shows that the modeling also produces a fairly accurate prediction of the level of fatalities over time.
Figure 4.153 Actual/predicted Finnish road deaths
2029
Actual Predicted
0
Chapter 4 • Modelling road safety in twenty-one countries The safety weights applied in Finland were cars, light commercial vehicles and other vehicles 1.0, motorcycles 6.0, buses 1.5, trucks 2.0 and mopeds 3.0. The injury weighted vkt calculation has motorcycles at 10.0 and mopeds at 5.0.
In Finland, the injury rate (road injuries per billion injury-weighted vkt) moved roughly in sync with the fatality rate. This is shown in Figure 4.154.
Figure 4.154 Finnish injury and fatality rates
2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 60 160 260 360 460 560 660
Fatalities per billion safety-wgt vkt
Injury rate Fatality rate
Injuries per billion injury-wgt vkt
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
A model of the injury rate was constructed using the fatality rate and a dummy variable from 2007 on. The regression results are shown in Table 4.50.
Table 4.50 Regression results for predicting the Finnish injury rate
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.992021
R Square 0.984106
Adjusted R Square 0.983384 Standard Error 18.136794
Observations 47
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 896172.9221 448086.46 1362.1997 2.67255E-40
Residual 44 14473.50475 328.94328
Total 46 910646.4269
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 68.325649 5.058516 13.507055 0.000000 58.130881 78.520418
FatalRate 11.227514 0.230919 48.620975 0.000000 10.762127 11.692901
Dum07on -9.348847 9.142921 -1.022523 0.312123 -27.775193 9.077499
Figure 4.155 shows the pattern of the injury rate is fairly accurately predicted by the model.
Figure 4.156 shows that the modeling also produces a fairly accurate prediction of the level of injuries over time.
Figure 4.155 Actual and predicted Finnish injury rate
2029 19791981 1977
Actual Predicted
Injuries per billion injury-wgt vkt
0
Figure 4.156 Actual and predicted Finnish road injuries
2029
Actual Predicted
0
Chapter 4 • Modelling road safety in twenty-one countries