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문서에서 Building e-Resilience in Mongolia (페이지 9-0)

The Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) carries out a variety of activities aimed at improving regional connectivity through the development of the information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific.

This study is part of an ESCAP project entitled, “Strengthening information and communications technology capacities for disaster risk reduction and development:

Addressing information, knowledge and policy gaps in Asia”. The project is in line with ESCAP Resolution 69/10 on, “Promoting regional information and communications technology connectivity and building knowledge-networked societies in Asia and the Pacific”, adopted by member states at the 69th session of the ESCAP Commission.

Importantly, this resolution encourages member states to continuously promote regional cooperation to address the digital divide, and to formulate and implement coherent ICT policies that build knowledge-networked societies.

2. Objective and Scope

This study contributes to the improved capacity of policymakers to integrate ICT into disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy and planning, by providing a better understanding of the role of ICT in disaster risk management (DRM) in China. The study includes a comprehensive analysis of connectivity-related data in China. It identifies key bottlenecks and missing links in the network infrastructure that should be remedied to reduce disaster risk, and explores different aspects of the digital divide.

Drawing reference from the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030,1 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG),2 the study begins with an overview of the evolving role of ICT in DRM. Particular focus is given to the issue of e-resilience, in line with SDG no. 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.

The readiness, quality and resilience of the ICT infrastructure to provide early warnings, withstand disaster events and support recovery is examined. Special attention is given to fibre optic connectivity networks and broadband as critical infrastructure for DRM, as well as the need to narrow the digital divide by striving towards universal and affordable access for all.

Turning to applications, the study showcases a number of examples of how ICTs have been used to enhance DRM, including government- and private sector-driven initiatives, and those offering opportunities for public-private partnerships. Innovative solutions that empower individuals and communities to organize themselves in response to a disaster are included, as well as applications that did not meet expectations. Towards the end of this study, lessons are drawn and recommendations are made from policy and implementation perspectives, for the future development of infrastructure and the creation of an environment that fosters innovation and cooperation in the interest of economic development and human well-being.

1 The Sendai Framework was adopted by United Nations member states on 18 March 2015 at the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. The Sendai Framework is the successor instrument to the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. For more information see http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework.

2 The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that includes a set of 17 SDGs was adopted by United Nations member states on 25 September 2015 at the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit. The SDGs build on the eight Millennium Development Goals that the world committed to achieving by 2015. For more information see http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/.

3. Introduction

The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) was the first plan to detail the work required by different sectors and actors to reduce disaster losses. It was endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly in the Resolution A/RES/60/195 following the 2005 United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) in Kobe, Japan. In March 2015, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 succeeded the HFA. The Sendai Framework builds on the work done by member states and other stakeholders under the HFA and introduces a number of innovations to prevent new risk and reduce existing risk, based on the lessons learned from implementing the HFA.

Since the adoption of the HFA in 2005, progress has been achieved in reducing disaster risk at local, national, regional and global levels. Countries have enhanced their capacities in DRM, which have contributed to a decrease in mortality in the case of some hazards such as floods and tropical storms. Furthermore, there has been growing evidence that DRR is a cost effective investment in preventing future losses.

The 10-year period of the HFA, however, did not substantially reduce human and economic losses. From 2005 to 2015, more than 700,000 people lost their lives, over 1.4 million were injured, and around 23 million were made homeless as a result of disasters. Overall, more than 1.5 billion people were affected by disasters in various ways, and the total economic loss was more than USD 1.3 trillion.3

Disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity, and those exacerbated by climate change are significantly impeding progress toward sustainable development. The preparatory process for the third WCDRR in 2015 concludes that it is urgent and critical to anticipate, plan for and act on risk scenarios over at least the next 50 years to protect ecosystems, human beings and their assets more effectively. It calls for business to integrate disaster risk into their management practices, investments and accounting, for closer cooperation between the public and private sectors, and for a broader and a more people-centred preventive approach to disaster risk. Global, regional and transboundary cooperation remains pivotal, especially for developing countries and in particular small island states, landlocked countries and least developed countries. These countries require special attention and support through bilateral and multilateral channels for capacity building, financial and technical assistance, and technology transfer.

ICT plays a significant role in DRR. ICT allows speedy communication that is essential for saving lives, protecting assets and coordinating rescue and recovery efforts once a disaster has struck. ICT is also indispensable to the continuous monitoring of hazards, the timely transmission of data to relevant actors, the analysis of data to predict impending disasters, and the issuance of warnings to people.

The amount of data and voice traffic generated in hazard monitoring and around disaster events is enormous. Geographic information systems (GIS) are continuously being improved for a wide range of applications in hazard monitoring, surveillance and reporting that can provide high-resolution and multi-spectral imagery, as well as video streaming. Moreover, machine-to-machine communication is playing an increasing role in DRM. All this leads to a need for wide coverage of high-bandwidth, low-latency broadband transmission infrastructure.

The population density in many areas potentially affected by natural disasters is very high, as is the case in parts of China. This means that when a disaster strikes, the aggregate voice and

3 United Nations, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Available from http://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf.

data traffic from issuing warnings, communicating with those affected, and coordinating among authorities is also very high, putting exceptional strain on access as well as backbone networks. Ideally, the network infrastructure in such areas would be scalable and flexible enough to absorb these traffic peaks. Yet, more often than not, telecom networks become congested in disaster areas, not only because of the exceptional traffic load, but also because their capacity is diminished due to destruction or temporary incapacitation of infrastructure, for example through power failures.

Bandwidth, speed and scalability are therefore not the only requirements for the ICT infrastructure in disaster-prone areas; it is equally important that the infrastructure is robust against damage or destruction and that it has built-in redundancy. Ideally, redundant infrastructure would also be self-organizing and self-healing in case of partial failure.

In addition, the ICT infrastructure and services, particularly at the access network level, need to be inclusive for effective DRM, i.e. access needs to be available and affordable to the entire population, including the poor and those living in rural and remote areas. In many countries, however, including China, a so-called ‘digital divide’ exists, excluding parts of the population from access and/or affordable services.

The above characteristics of the ICT infrastructure are embodied in the term ‘e-resilience’, which is also in line with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, in particular Goal 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.

Box 1: What is e-resilience?

e-Resilience is defined as the ability of a system to withstand, recover from and change in the face of an external disturbance (such as acute or chronic climate change). Resilience constitutes an important property of livelihood systems which, through a set of seven dynamic sub-properties (robustness, scale, redundancy, rapidity, flexibility, self-organization and learning) can enhance adaptive capacity. e-Resilience is a property of livelihood systems by which ICTs interact with a set of resilience sub-properties, enabling the system to adapt to the effects of climate change.

Source: Association for Progressive Communication

4. Natural Disasters in China

4.1 Natural Disaster Risk

Due to its vast territory and complicated weather and geographical conditions, China is one of the most disaster-affected countries in the world—primarily affected by floods, earthquakes and tropical cyclones (typhoons). Five of the world's top ten deadliest natural disasters in recorded history occurred in China, including the top three.

The country has had six of the world's top ten deadliest floods and landslides of all time, including the top five. According to China’s National Disaster Reduction Centre (NDRC, see Section 4.2), floods affected over 77 million people and caused 712 fatalities between January and October 2014. In the same period, over 3.6 million people were evacuated and 249,000 houses destroyed. The cost of the floods in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces in mid-2014 alone, which affected three million people and damaged 120,000 hectares of crops, was estimated at more than USD 335 million.

China has also had three of the world's top ten most fatal earthquakes, including the top two, according to the United States Geological Survey. The 1976 Tangshan earthquake, with an estimated death toll of up to 779,000, is ranked the third deadliest earthquake and eighth deadliest natural disaster of all time. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which took the lives of close to 70,000 people and left 15 million homeless, was the deadliest since 1976. According to the NDRC, 2014 saw at least 15 major quakes in the first three quarters of the year, the worst being the Ludian earthquake in August, for which ESCAP has estimated economic losses at USD 6 billion.

Almost every year, multiple typhoons hit the coastal areas of southern China. Typhoon Rammasun in 2014 killed 62 people and destroyed 51,000 homes, according to local media, and economic losses amounted to USD 6.25 billion. Facing the seismically active Pacific Ocean, low lying coastal areas are also at risk of tsunamis.

Figure 1: Natural disasters in China from 1980 to 2010

Source: http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=36

The NDRC claims that over 254 million people in China were affected by a natural disaster of some sort in the first three quarters of 2014 alone. As many as 1,536 people lost their lives during the same period. In 2012, China’s total economic losses due to natural disasters were estimated at USD 66 billion.

What makes natural disasters in China so deadly and costly is the fact that much of the country’s huge population concentrates in disaster-prone areas, especially along the coasts, in major river basins and in high-rainfall areas. There is a strong correlation between population density and the occurrence of floods and typhoons. Droughts are also widespread in densely populated areas. Earthquakes occur mostly along the western fringe of China’s more densely populated eastern half, and in the far northwest.

On the positive side, these highly populated disaster-prone areas have a relatively well-developed ICT infrastructure (see Section 5) that is accessible and affordable to those living in these areas (see Section 7).

Figure 2: Location of major natural disasters in China, 1900 - 2000

Source: NDRC

4.2 Relevant Government Agencies

The NDRC is a specialized government agency under the Ministry of Civil Affairs, engaged in information services and supporting decisions on various natural disasters. It provides information to disaster management departments for their decision-making. It also offers technical support to China's DRR undertakings by way of collecting and analysing disaster information using technologies such as satellite remote sensing, and conducting post-disaster assessments.

The National Earthquake Administration was established in 1971 to take charge of monitoring, research and emergency response to earthquakes. It was renamed China Earthquake Administration in 1998, as mandated by the Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction Act. Each provincial, autonomous regional and centrally administrated municipal government has its own earthquake administration under the direction of the China Earthquake Administration.

5. Telecom and Broadband Infrastructure in China

The telecom infrastructure in general, and in particular, telecommunications for DRM, consists of three main layers:

• The access network

• The national backbone network

• The international infrastructure

The access network provides access to and from the end-user, i.e. individuals, businesses and institutions that use telecommunication services and applications. It consists of the fixed-line infrastructure and wireless/mobile connections, which in many countries, including China,

now vastly outnumber fixed lines. The fixed-line infrastructure is traditionally made up of copper telephone lines and coaxial cable TV networks, but increasingly also includes fibre optic connections directly to homes (fibre-to-the home) and premises (fibre-to-the-premises).

Mobile networks typically have many thousands—in the case of China hundreds of thousands—of base stations, each of which serves a relatively small area of some square kilometres or less.

The national backbone network, consisting of several sub-layers itself, connects the various elements of the access network with each other, e.g., wireless base stations, switching centres, operation and maintenance facilities, and international gateways. It includes metropolitan networks within cities and trunk lines connecting major cities or population centres with each other. Major trunk lines are typically implemented as fibre optic connections due to the high capacity demand on them. At the local level, microwave radio links are common because of their relatively low cost, and their ease and speed of implementation. However, they too are increasingly being replaced by fibre optic connections due to the rising demand for broadband data services on the access network, especially in densely populated areas. Satellite connections are used for national backbone connections to remote areas or as backup for other types of connections.

The international infrastructure connects a country to the rest of the world. This typically takes the form of very high capacity fibre optic subsea cables spanning entire oceans, which have largely replaced satellite technology in this segment. Landlocked countries depend on terrestrial transit connections via countries with coastal landing stations, or on satellites for their international connections.

All three layers—access, backbone and international infrastructure—are critical for the overall functioning of effective communications, i.e. sufficient capacity, and ideally redundancy, needs to be provided in each layer. It is of no use to build the best high-speed broadband access network if sufficient backbone and international capacity is not available to carry the traffic, and vice-versa.

In many markets around the world, the three layers are open to competition, i.e. there are several licensed service providers who have built their own network infrastructure and are offering services in competition with others. This in itself creates redundancy in network infrastructure covering the same geographical areas, but each operator will also strive to have redundancy within its own network in order to be able to provide uninterrupted service in case of temporary partial failures or outages. In China, however, the level of competition across the three layers is relatively low.

5.1 Access Networks

5.1.1 Fixed Networks

China has two major fixed-line network operators, China Telecom with around 145 million subscribers, and China Unicom with around 87 million subscribers in 2014. Although the two companies are licensed to operate nationwide, for historical reasons China Telecom has an overwhelming market share in 21 provinces in the south of the country, while China Unicom dominates in 10 provinces in the north.

By 2010, 100 per cent of China’s ‘administrative villages’ had voice telephony services and 100 per cent of towns were connected to the Internet, 98 per cent through broadband. Despite this widespread availability of fixed-line services, only a relatively small proportion of Chinese households are actually connected. Many have replaced their fixed line with one or several mobile phones, leading to a steady decline of fixed lines in service from a peak of 370

million in 2006 to 250 million in 2014, while the number of mobile subscriptions grew from 460 million to 1.3 billion during the same time period.

Including the 21 million public payphones, fixed-line penetration as a percentage of the country’s population now stands at around 18 per cent, which is low in comparison with a 94 per cent mobile penetration rate (see Section 5.1.2). This trend of declining fixed-line subscriptions and near 100 per cent mobile penetration means that the mobile networks play a much greater role for DRM when it comes to reaching people in affected areas. The use of mobile networks also has the added advantage of reaching people on the move. Nevertheless, fixed lines—especially on a fibre optic network—will always be superior to mobile access when it comes to supporting very high data rates and low latency. Therefore, fixed lines remain indispensable for those aspects of DRM that involve very high bandwidth and real-time applications, such as exchange of large amounts of GIS data and high-definition video streaming.

Around 75 per cent of China Telecom’s and China Unicom’s fixed-line customers use their subscriptions for broadband services. Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) is still the dominating fixed-line broadband technology, but it has declined from a peak of 119 million subscribers in 2012 to around 95 million in 2014, according to data from the China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC). DSL is gradually being replaced by direct fibre optic connections to businesses and homes (FttX), and an overwhelming number of Chinese now also access the Internet through mobile devices (see Section 5.1.2). According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), FttX increased from 27.5 million to 68.3 million subscribers in 2014, accounting for 34 per cent of all broadband subscriptions. Ninety per cent of FttX subscribers are from the business and public sectors, and 10 per cent are residents.

Besides DSL and FttX, cable modem services using the cable TV network infrastructure plays a relatively small role in China’s fixed-line broadband access market. This is despite the fact that the country has the world’s largest cable TV market with an estimated 235 million subscriptions, and a household penetration of 55 per cent in 2013.4 Cable TV operations exist in all of China’s 31 provinces, covering most cities and many parts of rural China, so they do add a certain infrastructure redundancy to the telecom networks that may be helpful in disaster situations. Yet, due to regulatory uncertainty and a fragmented market structure, only a few of China’s cable TV providers offer voice telephony and broadband Internet access through their cable networks. The subscriber base for these services has fallen from a peak of

Besides DSL and FttX, cable modem services using the cable TV network infrastructure plays a relatively small role in China’s fixed-line broadband access market. This is despite the fact that the country has the world’s largest cable TV market with an estimated 235 million subscriptions, and a household penetration of 55 per cent in 2013.4 Cable TV operations exist in all of China’s 31 provinces, covering most cities and many parts of rural China, so they do add a certain infrastructure redundancy to the telecom networks that may be helpful in disaster situations. Yet, due to regulatory uncertainty and a fragmented market structure, only a few of China’s cable TV providers offer voice telephony and broadband Internet access through their cable networks. The subscriber base for these services has fallen from a peak of

문서에서 Building e-Resilience in Mongolia (페이지 9-0)